Call number:
M 23.95135
;
8/M 23.95382

Description / Table of Contents:
"An overview of the essential principles of seismic hazard and risk analysis, including advanced topics, worked examples and problem sets. (20) An overview of the essential principles and procedures of seismic hazard and risk analysis, of interest to earth scientists and engineers. Coverage includes state-of-the-art procedures, advanced topics, and future research directions. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets, with solutions and computer codes provided online. (46/341) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology. (143)"--

Type of Medium:
Monograph available for loan

Pages:
xii, 581 Seiten
,
Illustrationen
,
27 cm

ISBN:
9781108425056
,
978-1-108-42505-6

Language:
English

Note:
Contents
Preface
Introduction
1.1
Hazard and Risk Analysis
1.2
Uses of Hazard and Risk Infonnation
1.3
Detenninistic Analysis
1.4
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
1.5
Probabilistic Risk Analysis
1.6
Benefits of Probabilistic Analysis
I. 7 Uncertainties in Probabilistic Analysis
1.8
Validation
Part I Hazard Inputs
2 Seismic Source Characterization
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Earth Structure and Plate Tectonics
2.3 Faults
2.4 Earthquake Processes
2.5 Earthquake Size
2.6 Definitions of Seismic Sources
2. 7 Source Characteristics
2.8 Conceptual Development of SSMs
Exercises
3 Characterization of Earthquake Rates and Rupture Scenarios
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Approaches to Determining Rupture Rates
3.3 Constraints from Seismicity Data
3.4 Geological Constraints on Activity
3.5 Magnitude-Frequency Distributions
3.6 Rupture Scenarios and Computation of Rates
3.7 Generation of Rupture Scenarios
3.8 Time-Dependent Ruptw-e Rates
Exercises
4 Empirical Ground-Motion Characterization 147
4.1 Introduction
147
4.2 Engineering Characterization of Ground Motion
149
4.3 Ground-Motion Databases
161
4.4 Mathematical Representation
166
4.5 General Trends in Empirical Data and Models 170
4.6 Prediction Using Empirical GMMs
179
4.7 Epistemic Uncertainty
186
4.8 Limitations of Empirical GMMs
192
Exercises
193
5 Physics-Based Ground-Motion Characterization
196
5.1 Introduction 196
5.2 Utility of Physics-Based Ground-Motion Simulation
198
5.3 Earthquake Source Representation
200
5.4 Seismic Wave Propagation 205
5.5 Methods for Physics-Based Ground-Motion Simulation
220
5.6 Prediction Using Physics-Based GMMs
233
Exercises
Part II Hazard Calculations
247
6 PSHA Calculation
249
6.1 Introduction
249
6.2 The PSHA Calculation
250
6.3 Example Calculations 255
6.4 Hazard Curve Metrics
262
6.5 Sensitivity of Hazard Results to Inputs 266
6.6 Model Uncertainty
269
6.7 Logic Trees
272
6.8 PSHA with Epistemic Uncertainty
276
6.9 Monte Carlo PSHA
279
6.10 Discussion
280
Exercises
7 PSHA Products
286
7.1 Introduction 286
7.2 Disaggregation 287
7.3 Uniform Hazard Spectrum 301
7.4 Hazard Maps 306
7.5 Conditional Spectrum 307
7.6 VectorPSHA 312
7.7 Earthquake Sequences in PSHA
312
7.8 Implementation and Documentation of Hazard Studies 316
Exercises
8 Non-Ergodic Hazard Analysis
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Fundamental Concepts
8.3 Aleatory Variability versus Epistemic Uncertainty
8.4 When Can Non-Ergodic Approaches Be Applied?
8.5 Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models
8.6 Non-Ergodic Site Effects
8.7 Non-Ergodic Path Effects
8.8 Non-Ergodic Source Effects
8.9 Non-Ergodic Components in Seismic-Source Models
Exercises
Part Ill Risk
9 Seismic Risk
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Fragility and Vulnerability Functions
9.3 Calibrating Fragility and Vulnerability Functions
9.4 Risk Metrics
9.5 PEER Framework
9.6 Epistemic Uncertainty
9.7 Risk-Targeted Ground-Motion Intensity
Exercises
10 Ground-Motion Selection
I 0.1 Introduction
I 0.2 Principles of Hazard-Consistent Ground-Motion Selection
10.3
Target Intensity Measure Distributions
I 0.4 Selection Algorithms
10.5
Assessing Accuracy and Precision of Seismic Responses
10.6
Application-Specific Decisions
10.7
Design Code and Guideline Requirements
10.8
Documentation
Exercises
11 Spatially Distributed Systems
11.1
Introduction
11.2
Parameterization Using Empirical Ground-Motion Models
11.3
Parameterization Using Physics-Based Simulations
11.4
Numerical Implementation
11.5
Coherency
11.6
Risk
Exercises
12 Validation
12. l Introduction
12.2
Verification and Validation
12.3 Validation from Limited Observations
12.4
Direct Validation of Seismic Hazard Curves
12.5
Validation of Model Components
12.6
Do Failures of Past Calculations [nvalidate the PSHA Methodology?
12.7
Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Decision-Making
Exercises
Appendix A Basics of Probability
A. l Random Events
A.2 Conditional Probability
A.3 Random Variables
A.4 Expectations and Moments
A.5 Common Probability Distributions
A.6
Random Number Generation
Appendix B Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration
1 B.3 Statistical Estimation of m1,,x
my,y
B.5 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Seismicity Parameters
Estimation ofIM ofSymbols 433
484
486
494
514
519
523
529
533
578
viii Contents
12 Validation
12. l Introduction
12.2
Verification and Validation
12.3 Validation from Limited Observations
12.4
Direct Validation of Seismic Hazard Curves
12.5
Validation of Model Components
12.6
Do Failures of Past Calculations [nvalidate the PSHA Methodology?
12.7
Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Decision-Making
Exercises
Appendix A Basics of Probability
A. l Random Events
A.2 Conditional Probability
A.3 Random Variables
A.4 Expectations and Moments
A.5 Common Probability Distributions
A.6
Random Number Generation
Appendix B Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration
B. l Confidence Intervals for the Sample Mean and Standard Deviation
B.2 Hypothesis Testing for Statistical Significance
B.3 Statistical Estimation of mmax
B.4 Bayesian Estimation of lnmax
B.5 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Seismicity Parameters
B.6 Empirical GMM Calibration
B.7 Estimation of JM Correlations from GMMs
B.8 Fragility Function Fitting
References
List of Symbols and Abbreviations
Notation Conventions
Index

Location:
Reading room

Branch Library:
GFZ Library

Branch Library:
GFZ Library