ALBERT

Description: Climate models project that by 2100, the northeastern US and eastern Canada will warm by approximately 3–5 °C, with increased winter precipitation. These changes will affect trees directly and also indirectly through effects on “nuisance” species, such as insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plants. We review how basic ecological principles can be used to predict nuisance species’ responses to climate change and how this is likely to impact northeastern forests. We then examine in detail the potential responses of two pest species (hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae Annand) and forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hubner)), two pathogens (armillaria root rot ( Armillaria spp.) and beech bark disease ( Cryptococcus fagisuga Lind. + Neonectria spp.)), and two invasive plant species (glossy buckthorn ( Frangula alnus Mill.) and oriental bittersweet ( Celastrus orbiculatus Thunb.)). Several of these species are likely to have stronger or more widespread effects on forest composition and structure under the projected climate. However, uncertainty pervades our predictions because we lack adequate data on the species and because some species depend on complex, incompletely understood, unstable relationships. While targeted research will increase our confidence in making predictions, some uncertainty will always persist. Therefore, we encourage policies that allow for this uncertainty by considering a wide range of possible scenarios.

Description: We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Description: In many forest types, over half of the total stand biomass is located in the forest floor. Carbon emissions during wildland fire are directly related to biomass (fuel) consumption. Consumption of forest floor fuel varies widely and is the greatest source of uncertainty in estimating total carbon emissions during fire. We used experimental burn data (59 burns, four fuel types) and wildfire data (69 plots, four fuel types) to develop a model of forest floor fuel consumption and carbon emissions in nonpeatland standing-timber fuel types. The experimental burn and wildfire data sets were analyzed separately and combined by regression to provide fuel consumption models. Model variables differed among fuel types, but preburn fuel load, duff depth, bulk density, and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System components at the time of burning were common significant variables. The regression R2 values ranged from 0.206 to 0.980 (P 〈 0.001). The log–log model for all data combined explained 79.5% of the regression variation and is now being used to estimate annual carbon emissions from wildland fire. Forest floor carbon content at the wildfires ranged from 40.9% to 53.9%, and the carbon emission rate ranged from 0.29 to 2.43 kg·m–2.

Description: Increasing temperatures, precipitation extremes, and other anthropogenic influences (pollutant deposition, increasing carbon dioxide) will influence future forest composition and productivity in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. This synthesis of empirical and modeling studies includes tree DNA evidence suggesting tree migrations since the last glaciation were much slower, at least under postglacial conditions, than is needed to keep up with current and future climate warming. Exceedances of US and Canadian ozone air quality standards are apparent and offset CO2-induced gains in biomass and predispose trees to other stresses. The deposition of nitrogen and sulfate in the northeastern United States changes forest nutrient availability and retention, reduces reproductive success and frost hardiness, causes physical damage to leaf surfaces, and alters performance of forest pests and diseases. These interacting stresses may increase future tree declines and ecosystem disturbances during transition to a warmer climate. Recent modeling work predicts warmer climates will increase suitable habitat (not necessarily actual distribution) for most tree species in the northeastern United States. Species whose habitat is declining in the northeastern United States currently occur in Canadian forests and may expand northward with warming. Paleoecological studies suggest local factors may interact with, even overwhelm, climatic effects, causing lags and thresholds leading to sudden large shifts in vegetation.

Description: Methods were developed to predict the moisture content of the elevated dead fine fuel layer in gorse ( Ulex europaeus L.) shrub fuels. This layer has been observed to be important for fire development and spread in these fuels. The accuracy of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to predict the moisture content of this layer was evaluated. An existing model was used to determine the response time and equilibrium moisture content from field data. This response time was incorporated into a bookkeeping model, combining the FFMC and this response time–equilibrium moisture content model. The FFMC poorly predicted the elevated dead fuel moisture content in gorse fuels, and attempts to improve its accuracy through regression modelling were unsuccessful. The response time of the elevated dead fine fuel layer was very fast (38–77 min) and has important implications for fire danger rating. The bookkeeping approach was the most promising method to predict elevated dead fuel moisture content. A limitation was the inability to model fuel-level meteorology. However, this model warrants further validation and extension to other shrub fuels and could be incorporated into existing fire danger rating systems that can utilize hourly weather data.

Description: Tree species is a key factor in shaping epiphytic lichen communities. In managed forests, tree species composition is mainly controlled by forest management, with important consequences on lichen diversity. The main aim of this work was to evaluate the differences at tree level in macrolichen richness and composition between Abies alba Mill. and Fagus sylvatica L. in a temperate mixed forest in northern Italy, in addition to evaluating two different proportions of the two species at the stand level. Abies alba and F. sylvatica host lichen communities including several rare and sensitive species. Our findings indicate that both tree species were important for lichen diversity, since they hosted different communities. However, F. sylvatica proved to be a more favourable hosting tree for several rare and sensitive species. Species associated with A. alba were mainly acidophytic lichens, while those associated with F. sylvatica were foliose hygrophytic lichens, mainly establishing over bryophytes. The frequency of the flagship species Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm. was a valuable predictor of cyanolichen richness and was useful in identifying sites hosting lichen communities that are potentially more sensitive to thinning and human disturbance. The results support the relevance of mixed A. alba – F. sylvatica formations among European habitats worthy of conservation.

Description: Despite the availability of several protocols for the extraction of chlorophylls and carotenoids from foliage of forest trees, information regarding their respective extraction efficiencies is scarce. We compared the efficiencies of acetone, ethanol, dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), and N, N-dimethylformamide (DMF) over a range of incubation times for the extraction of chlorophylls and carotenoids using small amounts of unmacerated tissue. Of the 11 species studied, comparable amounts of chlorophyll were extracted by all four solvents from three species and by ethanol and DMF from nine species. In four species, acetone, ethanol, and DMF extracted comparable chlorophyll amounts, while in another two species comparable amounts were extracted by ethanol, DMSO, and DMF. In one species, ethanol extracted significantly greater amounts of chlorophyll compared with all other solvents. The brown coloration of DMSO extracts for some species compromised the calculations of chlorophylls and carotenoids, making DMSO a poor choice. Overall, extraction efficiencies of ethanol and DMF were comparable for analyzing chlorophyll concentrations. However, because DMF is more toxic than ethanol, we recommend ethanol as the better option of these two for chlorophyll extractions. On the other hand, DMF is the most efficient solvent among the four tested for the extraction of carotenoids from these species. The results presented will facilitate the design of multispecies local- and regional-scale ecological studies to evaluate forest health. Additionally, they will enable reliable comparisons of results from multiple laboratories and (or) studies that used different solvents and help validate chlorophyll estimates obtained by remote sensing.

Description: In this study we examined various measures, including the concordance correlation (CC) coefficient, for determining the goodness of fit of forest models estimated by nonlinear mixed-model (NLMM) methods. Based on the volume–age data for black spruce, we analyzed the use of CC and other traditional goodness-of-fit measures such as coefficient of determination (R2), mean bias, percent bias, root mean square error, and graphic techniques on both the population and subject-specific levels within the NLMM framework. We also examined the relationship between goodness-of-fit measures and the number of observations per subject. We found that the standard overall goodness-of-fit measures commonly reported on combined data from different subjects were generally insufficient in determining the goodness of fitted models. We recommend that CC and other selected goodness-of-fit measures be calculated for individual subjects, and that the frequency distributions of the calculated values be examined and used as the principal criteria for determining the goodness of fit of forest models estimated by NLMM methods and for comparing alternative models and covariance structures. We also emphasized the importance of using pertinent graphic techniques to assess the appropriateness of NLMMs, especially at the subject-specific level, wherein lies the main interest of NLMMs.

Description: While piñon woodlands cover much of arid North America, surprisingly little is known about the role of fire in maintaining piñon forest structure and species composition. The lack of region-specific fire regime data for piñon–juniper woodlands presents a roadblock to managers striving to implement process-based management. This study characterized piñon–juniper fire regimes and forest stand dynamics in Big Bend National Park (BIBE) and the Davis Mountains Preserve of the Nature Conservancy (DMTNC) in west Texas. Mean fire return intervals were 36.5 and 11.2 years for BIBE and DMTNC, respectively. Point fire return intervals were 150 years at BIBE and 75 years at DMTNC. Tree regeneration in west Texas piñon–juniper woodlands occurred historically during favorable climatic conditions following fire years. The presence of multiple fire scars on our fire-scar samples and the multicohort stands of piñon suggested that low intensity fires were common. This study represents one of the few fire-scar-based fire regime studies for piñon–juniper woodlands. Our results differ from other studies in less topographically dissected landscapes that have identified stand-replacing fire as the dominant fire regime for piñon–juniper woodlands. This suggests that mixed-severity fire regimes are typical across southwestern piñon forests, and that topography is an important influence on fire frequency and intensity.

Description: Data on the impact of forest management practices on ectomycorrhizal community structure remains fragmentary and mainly originates from studies in northern coniferous forests. This study focuses on a comparison of ectomycorrhizal communities between canopy gaps and closed canopy areas within natural and managed beech-dominated forests at four locations in Europe. We used high resolution rDNA techniques to identify ectomycorrhiza-forming fungi and attempted to extract potential stand-, gap-, soil-, and selected environmentally derived variables by applying multivariate analysis and ordination for pooling of ecological groups of ectomycorrhiza. A significant reduction of diversity indices, ectomycorrhizal and fine root dynamics, in gaps in comparison with closed canopy stands indicates an effect of forest management practice and the high importance of maintaining and protecting natural forest areas for conservation of soil biodiversity and forest genetic resources. The ordination analysis revealed three groups of ectomycorrhiza correlated with changing environmental conditions. The litter and soil pH, number of beech seedlings, and presence of a gap had a pronounced effect on the ectomycorrhizal community. Combined analysis of ectomycorrhiza and environmental factors using correspondence analysis provided an insight into the ecological preferences of the analysed species and confirmed that environmental factors drive ectomycorrhizal community changes.