ALBERT

Beschreibung: Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from travel – a GIS-based study Geographica Helvetica, 70, 185-192, 2015 Author(s): S. Kuonen Conferences, meetings and congresses are an important part of today's economic and scientific world. But the environmental impact, especially from greenhouse gas emissions associated with travel, can be extensive. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for the warming of the atmosphere and oceans. This study draws on the need to quantify and reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with travel activities and aims to give suggestions for organizers and participants on possible ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrated on the example of the European Geography Association (EGEA) Annual Congress 2013 in Wasilkow, Poland. The lack of a comprehensive methodology for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from travel led to an outline of a methodology that uses geographic information systems (GIS) to calculate travel distances. The calculation of travel distances in GIS is adapted from actual transportation infrastructure, derived from the open-source platform OpenStreetMap. The methodology also aims to assess the possibilities to reduce GHG emissions by choosing different means of transportation and a more central conference location. The results of the participants of the EGEA congress, who shared their travel data for this study, show that the total travel distance adds up to 238 000 km, with average travel distance of 2429 km per participant. The travel activities of the participants in the study result in total GHG emissions of 39 300 kg CO 2 -eq including both outward and return trip. On average a participant caused GHG emissions of 401 kg CO 2 -eq. In addition, the analysis of the travel data showed differences in travel behaviour depending on the distance between conference site and point of origin. The findings on travel behaviour have then been used to give an estimation of total greenhouse gas emissions from travel for all participants of the conference, which result in a total amount of 79 711 kg CO 2 -eq. The potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by substituting short flights with train rides and car rides with bus and train rides is limited. Only 6 % of greenhouse gas emissions could be saved by applying these measures. Further considerable savings could only be made by substituting longer flights (32.6 %) or choosing a more central conference location (26.3 %).

Beschreibung: Uncertainties in calculating precipitation climatology in East Asia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7765-7783, 2015 Author(s): J. Kim and S. K. Park This study examines the uncertainty in calculating the fundamental climatological characteristics of precipitation in the East Asia region from multiple fine-resolution gridded analysis datasets based on in-situ rain gauge observations. Five observation-based gridded precipitation datasets are used to derive the long-term means, standard deviations in lieu of interannual variability and linear trends over the 28-year period from 1980 to 2007. Both the annual and summer (June–July–August) mean precipitation is examined. The agreement amongst these precipitation datasets are examined using multiple metrics including the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) defined as the ratio between long-term means and the corresponding standard deviations, and Taylor diagrams which allows examinations of the pattern correlation, the standard deviation, and the centered root mean square error. It is found that the five gauge-based precipitation analysis datasets agree well in the long-term mean and interannual variability in most of the East Asia region including eastern China, Manchuria, South Korea, and Japan, which are densely populated and have fairly high density observation networks. The regions of large inter-dataset variations include Tibetan Plateau, Mongolia, northern Indo-China, and North Korea. The regions of large uncertainties are typically lightly populated and are characterized by severe terrain and/or extreme high elevations. Unlike the long-term mean and interannual variability, agreements between datasets in the linear trend is weak, both for the annual and summer mean values. In most of the East Asia region, the SNR for the linear trend is below 0.5, i.e., the inter-dataset variability exceeds the multi-data ensemble mean. The uncertainty in the spatial distribution of long-term means among these datasets occurs both in the spatial pattern and variability, but the uncertainty for the interannual variability and time trend is much larger in the variability than in the pattern correlation. Thus, care must be taken in using long-term trends calculated from gridded precipitation analysis data for climate studies over the East Asia region.

Beschreibung: Qualitative soil moisture assessment in semi-arid Africa – the role of experience and training on inter-rater reliability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3505-3516, 2015 Author(s): M. Rinderer, H. C. Komakech, D. Müller, G. L. B. Wiesenberg, and J. Seibert Soil and water management is particularly relevant in semi-arid regions to enhance agricultural productivity. During periods of water scarcity, soil moisture differences are important indicators of the soil water deficit and are traditionally used for allocating water resources among farmers of a village community. Here we present a simple, inexpensive soil wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators which one can see or touch on the soil surface. It incorporates the local farmers' knowledge on the best soil moisture conditions for seeding and brick making in the semi-arid environment of the study site near Arusha, Tanzania. The scheme was tested twice in 2014 with farmers, students and experts (April: 40 persons, June: 25 persons) for inter-rater reliability, bias of individuals and functional relation between qualitative and quantitative soil moisture values. During the test in April farmers assigned the same wetness class in 46 % of all cases, while students and experts agreed on about 60 % of all cases. Students who had been trained in how to apply the method gained higher inter-rater reliability than their colleagues with only a basic introduction. When repeating the test in June, participants were given improved instructions, organized in small subgroups, which resulted in a higher inter-rater reliability among farmers. In 66 % of all classifications, farmers assigned the same wetness class and the spread of class assignments was smaller. This study demonstrates that a wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators is a robust tool and can be applied successfully regardless of experience in crop growing and education level when an in-depth introduction and training is provided. The use of a simple and clear layout of the assessment form is important for reliable wetness class assignments.

Beschreibung: Nonlinear effects of locally heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on regional stream–aquifer exchanges Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7727-7764, 2015 Author(s): J. Zhu, C. L. Winter, and Z. Wang Computational experiments are performed to evaluate the effects of locally heterogeneous conductivity fields on regional exchanges of water between stream and aquifer systems in the Middle Heihe River Basin (MHRB) of northwestern China. The effects are found to be nonlinear in the sense that simulated discharges from aquifers to streams are systematically lower than discharges produced by a base model parameterized with relatively coarse effective conductivity. A similar, but weaker, effect is observed for stream leakage. The study is organized around three hypotheses: (H1) small-scale spatial variations of conductivity significantly affect regional exchanges of water between streams and aquifers in river basins, (H2) aggregating small-scale heterogeneities into regional effective parameters systematically biases estimates of stream–aquifer exchanges, and (H3) the biases result from slow-paths in groundwater flow that emerge due to small-scale heterogeneities. The hypotheses are evaluated by comparing stream–aquifer fluxes produced by the base model to fluxes simulated using realizations of the MHRB characterized by local (grid-scale) heterogeneity. Levels of local heterogeneity are manipulated as control variables by adjusting coefficients of variation. All models are implemented using the MODFLOW simulation environment, and the PEST tool is used to calibrate effective conductivities defined over 16 zones within the MHRB. The effective parameters are also used as expected values to develop log-normally distributed conductivity ( K ) fields on local grid scales. Stream-aquifer exchanges are simulated with K fields at both scales and then compared. Results show that the effects of small-scale heterogeneities significantly influence exchanges with simulations based on local-scale heterogeneities always producing discharges that are less than those produced by the base model. Although aquifer heterogeneities are uncorrelated at local scales, they appear to induce coherent slow-paths in groundwater fluxes that in turn reduce aquifer–stream exchanges. Since surface water–groundwater exchanges are critical hydrologic processes in basin-scale water budgets, these results also have implications for water resources management.

Beschreibung: Near–surface air temperature and snow skin temperature comparison from CREST-SAFE station data with MODIS land surface temperature data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7665-7687, 2015 Author(s): C. L. Pérez Díaz, T. Lakhankar, P. Romanov, J. Muñoz, R. Khanbilvardi, and Y. Yu Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable (commonly studied to understand the hydrological cycle) that helps drive the energy balance and water exchange between the Earth's surface and its atmosphere. One observable constituent of much importance in the land surface water balance model is snow. Snow cover plays a critical role in the regional to global scale hydrological cycle because rain-on-snow with warm air temperatures accelerates rapid snow-melt, which is responsible for the majority of the spring floods. Accurate information on near-surface air temperature ( T -air) and snow skin temperature ( T -skin) helps us comprehend the energy and water balances in the Earth's hydrological cycle. T -skin is critical in estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes over snow covered areas because incoming and outgoing radiation fluxes from the snow mass and the air temperature above make it different from the average snowpack temperature. This study investigates the correlation between MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data and observed T -air and T -skin data from NOAA-CREST-Snow Analysis and Field Experiment (CREST-SAFE) for the winters of 2013 and 2014. LST satellite validation is imperative because high-latitude regions are significantly affected by climate warming and there is a need to aid existing meteorological station networks with the spatially continuous measurements provided by satellites. Results indicate that near-surface air temperature correlates better than snow skin temperature with MODIS LST data. Additional findings show that there is a negative trend demonstrating that the air minus snow skin temperature difference is inversely proportional to cloud cover. To a lesser extent, it will be examined whether the surface properties at the site are representative for the LST properties within the instrument field of view.

Beschreibung: Does drought alter hydrological functions in forest soils? An infiltration experiment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7689-7725, 2015 Author(s): K. F. Gimbel, H. Puhlmann, and M. Weiler The water cycle is expected to change in future and severely affect precipitation patterns across central Europe and in other parts of the world, leading to more frequent and severe droughts. Usually, it is assumed that system properties, like soil properties, remain stable and will not be affected by drought events. To study if this assumption is appropriate, we address the effects of drought on the infiltration behavior of forest soils using dye tracer experiments on six sites in three regions across Germany, which were forced into drought conditions. The sites cover clayey, loamy and sandy textured soils. In each region, we compared a deciduous and a coniferous forest stand to address differences between the main tree species. The results of the dye tracer experiments show clear evidence for changes in infiltration behavior at the sites. The infiltration changed at the clayey plots from regular and homogeneous flow to fast preferential flow. Similar behavior was observed at the loamy plots, where large areas in the upper layers remained dry, displaying signs of strong water repellency. This was confirmed by WDPT tests, which revealed, in all except one plot, moderate to severe water repellency. Water repellency was also accountable for the change of regular infiltration to fingered flow in the sandy soils. The results of this study suggest that the "drought-history" or generally the climatic conditions in the past of a soil are more important than the actual antecedent soil moisture status regarding hydrophobicity and infiltration behavior; and also, that drought effects on infiltration need to be considered in hydrological models to obtain realistic predictions concerning water quality and quantity in runoff and groundwater recharge.

Beschreibung: Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model The Cryosphere, 9, 1505-1521, 2015 Author(s): S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon–climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate the physical dynamics of permafrost within global Earth system models (ESMs) and to determine the rate at which it will thaw. Additional new processes within JULES, the land-surface scheme of the UK ESM (UKESM), include a representation of organic soils, moss and bedrock and a modification to the snow scheme; the sensitivity of permafrost to these new developments is investigated in this study. The impact of a higher vertical soil resolution and deeper soil column is also considered. Evaluation against a large group of sites shows the annual cycle of soil temperatures is approximately 25 % too large in the standard JULES version, but this error is corrected by the model improvements, in particular by deeper soil, organic soils, moss and the modified snow scheme. A comparison with active layer monitoring sites shows that the active layer is on average just over 1 m too deep in the standard model version, and this bias is reduced by 70 cm in the improved version. Increasing the soil vertical resolution allows the full range of active layer depths to be simulated; by contrast, with a poorly resolved soil at least 50 % of the permafrost area has a maximum thaw depth at the centre of the bottom soil layer. Thus all the model modifications are seen to improve the permafrost simulations. Historical permafrost area corresponds fairly well to observations in all simulations, covering an area between 14 and 19 million km 2 . Simulations under two future climate scenarios show a reduced sensitivity of permafrost degradation to temperature, with the near-surface permafrost loss per degree of warming reduced from 1.5 million km 2 °C −1 in the standard version of JULES to between 1.1 and 1.2 million km 2 °C −1 in the new model version. However, the near-surface permafrost area is still projected to approximately half by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Beschreibung: Numerical simulations of the Cordilleran ice sheet through the last glacial cycle The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4147-4203, 2015 Author(s): J. Seguinot, I. Rogozhina, A. P. Stroeven, M. Margold, and J. Kleman Despite more than a century of geological observations, the Cordilleran ice sheet of North America remains poorly understood in terms of its former extent, volume and dynamics. Although geomorphological evidence is abundant, its complexity is such that whole ice-sheet reconstructions of advance and retreat patterns are lacking. Here we use a numerical ice sheet model calibrated against field-based evidence to attempt a quantitative reconstruction of the Cordilleran ice sheet history through the last glacial cycle. A series of simulations is driven by time-dependent temperature offsets from six proxy records located around the globe. Although this approach reveals large variations in model response to evolving climate forcing, all simulations produce two major glaciations during marine oxygen isotope stages 4 (61.9–56.5 ka) and 2 (23.2–16.8 ka). The timing of glaciation is better reproduced using temperature reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores than from regional oceanic sediment cores. During most of the last glacial cycle, the modelled ice cover is discontinuous and restricted to high mountain areas. However, widespread precipitation over the Skeena Mountains favours the persistence of a central ice dome throughout the glacial cycle. It acts as a nucleation centre before the Last Glacial Maximum and hosts the last remains of Cordilleran ice until the middle Holocene (6.6–6.2 ka).

Beschreibung: Urban areas are one of the most important components of human society. Their extents have been continuously growing during the last few decades. Accurate and timely measurements of the extents of urban areas can help in analyzing population densities and urban sprawls and in studying environmental issues related to urbanization. Urban extents detected from remotely sensed data are usually a by-product of land use classification results, and their interpretation requires a full understanding of land cover types. In this study, for the first time, we mapped urban extents in the continental United States using a novel one-class classification method, i.e., positive and unlabeled learning (PUL), with multi-temporal Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the year 2010. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) night stable light data were used to calibrate the urban extents obtained from the one-class classification scheme. Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of the use of the PUL algorithm in mapping large-scale urban areas from coarse remote-sensing images, for the first time. The total accuracy of mapped urban areas was 92.9% and the kappa coefficient was 0.85. The use of DMSP-OLS night stable light data can significantly reduce false detection rates from bare land and cropland far from cities. Compared with traditional supervised classification methods, the one-class classification scheme can greatly reduce the effort involved in collecting training datasets, without losing predictive accuracy.

Beschreibung: The knowledge about impacts of changes in precipitation regimes on terrestrial ecosystems is fundamental to improve our understanding of global environment change, particularly in the context that heavy precipitation is expected to increase according to the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Based on observed climate data and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), here we analyzed the spatio-temporal changes in grassland NDVI, covering 1.64 × 106 km2, in northern China and their linkages to changes in precipitation and temperature during the period 1982–2011. We found that mean growing season (April–October) grass NDVI is more sensitive to heavy precipitation than to moderate or light precipitation in both relatively arid areas (RAA) and relatively humid areas (RHA), whereas the sensitivities of grass NDVI to temperature are comparable to total precipitation in RHA. Heavy precipitation showed the strongest impacts in more than half of northern China (56%), whereas impacts of light precipitation on grass NDVI were stronger in some areas (21%), mainly distributed in northwestern China, a typical arid and semi-arid area. Our findings suggest that responses of grasslands are divergent with respect to changes in precipitation intensities.

Beschreibung: Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1757-1761, 2015 Author(s): M. Raschke In this communication, I improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and the Bayesian information criterion are introduced; the latter is used for statistical model selection. Moreover, I replace the frequently used dispersion statistics by an over-dispersion parameter which does not depend on the considered return period of storm events. These models and methods are applied in order to properly detect the over-dispersion in winter storm data for Germany, carrying out a joint estimation of the distribution models for different samples.

Beschreibung: Multiple stable states are established in coastal tidal wetlands (marshes, mangroves, deltas, seagrasses) by ecological, hydrological, and geomorphological feedbacks. Catastrophic shifts between states can be induced by gradual environmental change or by disturbance events. These feedbacks and outcomes are key to the sustainability and resilience of vegetated coastlines, especially as modulated by human activity, sea level rise, and climate change. Whereas multiple stable state theory has been invoked to model salt marsh responses to sediment supply and sea level change, there has been comparatively little empirical verification of the theory for salt marshes or other coastal wetlands. Especially lacking is long-term evidence documenting if or how stable states are established and maintained at ecosystem scales. Laboratory and field-plot studies are informative, but of necessarily limited spatial and temporal scope. For the purposes of long-term, coastal-scale monitoring, remote sensing is the best viable option. This review summarizes the above topics and highlights the emerging promise and challenges of using remote sensing-based analyses to validate coastal wetland dynamic state theories. This significant opportunity is further framed by a proposed list of scientific advances needed to more thoroughly develop the field.

Beschreibung: Impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes in a mountain stream Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3541-3556, 2015 Author(s): M. Majerova, B. T. Neilson, N. M. Schmadel, J. M. Wheaton, and C. J. Snow Beaver dams affect hydrologic processes, channel complexity, and stream temperature in part by inundating riparian areas, influencing groundwater–surface water interactions, and changing fluvial processes within stream systems. We explored the impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes at different spatial and temporal scales within a mountain stream in northern Utah over a 3-year period spanning pre- and post-beaver colonization. Using continuous stream discharge, stream temperature, synoptic tracer experiments, and groundwater elevation measurements, we documented pre-beaver conditions in the first year of the study. In the second year, we captured the initial effects of three beaver dams, while the third year included the effects of ten dams. After beaver colonization, reach-scale (~ 750 m in length) discharge observations showed a shift from slightly losing to gaining. However, at the smaller sub-reach scale (ranging from 56 to 185 m in length), the discharge gains and losses increased in variability due to more complex flow pathways with beaver dams forcing overland flow, increasing surface and subsurface storage, and increasing groundwater elevations. At the reach scale, temperatures were found to increase by 0.38 °C (3.8 %), which in part is explained by a 230 % increase in mean reach residence time. At the smallest, beaver dam scale (including upstream ponded area, beaver dam structure, and immediate downstream section), there were notable increases in the thermal heterogeneity where warmer and cooler niches were created. Through the quantification of hydrologic and thermal changes at different spatial and temporal scales, we document increased variability during post-beaver colonization and highlight the need to understand the impacts of beaver dams on stream ecosystems and their potential role in stream restoration.

Beschreibung: Does the Budyko curve reflect a maximum power state of hydrological systems? A backward analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7821-7842, 2015 Author(s): M. Westhoff, E. Zehe, P. Archambeau, and B. Dewals Almost all catchments plot within a small envelope around the Budyko curve. This apparent behaviour suggests that organizing principles may play a role in the evolution of catchments. In this paper we applied the thermodynamic principle of maximum power as the organizing principle. In a top-down approach we derived mathematical formulations of the relation between relative wetness and gradients driving runoff and evaporation for a simple one-box model. We did this in such a way that when the conductances are optimized with the maximum power principle, the steady state behaviour of the model leads exactly to a point on the Budyko curve. Subsequently we derived gradients that, under constant forcing, resulted in a Budyko curve following the asymptotes closely. With these gradients we explored the sensitivity of dry spells and dynamics in actual evaporation. Despite the simplicity of the model, catchment observations compare reasonably well with the Budyko curves derived with dynamics in rainfall and evaporation. This indicates that the maximum power principle may be used (i) to derive the Budyko curve and (ii) to move away from the empiricism in free parameters present in many Budyko functions. Future work should focus on better representing the boundary conditions of real catchments and eventually adding more complexity to the model.

Beschreibung: Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7785-7819, 2015 Author(s): J. K. Zheng, G. Sun, W. H. Li, X. X. Yu, C. Zhang, Y. B. Gong, and L. H. Tu Miyun reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contributes the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in Miyun reservoir are debatable in a non-stationary climate in the past four decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into Miyun reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies, this work objectively identified breakpoints by analyzing the long-term historical hydrometeorology and land cover records. To effectively study the different impacts of the climate variation and land cover change during different sub-periods, annual water balance model (AWB), climate elasticity model (CEM), and rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant decrease in annual streamflow ( p 〈 0.01), a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration ( p 〈 0.01), and an insignificant negative trend in annual precipitation ( p 〉 0.1) during 1961–2008. Combined with historical records, we identified two breakpoints as in 1983 and 1999 for the period 1961–2008 by the sequential Mann–Kendall Test and Double Mass Curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to Miyun reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in evapotranspiration rates due to the expansion of forestlands and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. Our study found that the contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the 2000s. We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the goal of water supply of Miyun reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management.

Beschreibung: Aquatic vegetation serves many important ecological and socioeconomic functions in lake ecosystems. The presence of floating algae poses difficulties for accurately estimating the distribution of aquatic vegetation in eutrophic lakes. We present an approach to map the distribution of aquatic vegetation in Lake Taihu (a large, shallow eutrophic lake in China) and reduce the influence of floating algae on aquatic vegetation mapping. Our approach involved a frequency analysis over a 2003–2013 time series of the floating algal index (FAI) based on moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Three phenological periods were defined based on the vegetation presence frequency (VPF) and the growth of algae and aquatic vegetation: December and January composed the period of wintering aquatic vegetation; February and March composed the period of prolonged coexistence of algal blooms and wintering aquatic vegetation; and June to October was the peak period of the coexistence of algal blooms and aquatic vegetation. By comparing and analyzing the satellite-derived aquatic vegetation distribution and 244 in situ measurements made in 2013, we established a FAI threshold of −0.025 and VPF thresholds of 0.55, 0.45 and 0.85 for the three phenological periods. We validated the accuracy of our approach by comparing the results between the satellite-derived maps and the in situ results obtained from 2008–2012. The overall classification accuracy was 87%, 81%, 77%, 88% and 73% in the five years from 2008–2012, respectively. We then applied the approach to the MODIS images from 2003–2013 and obtained the total area of the aquatic vegetation, which varied from 265.94 km2 in 2007 to 503.38 km2 in 2008, with an average area of 359.62 ± 69.20 km2 over the 11 years. Our findings suggest that (1) the proposed approach can be used to map the distribution of aquatic vegetation in eutrophic algae-rich waters and (2) dramatic changes occurred in the distribution of aquatic vegetation in Lake Taihu during the 11-year study.

Beschreibung: Impacts on wave-driven harbour agitation due to climate change in Catalan ports Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1695-1709, 2015 Author(s): J. P. Sierra, M. Casas-Prat, M. Virgili, C. Mösso, and A. Sánchez-Arcilla The objective of the present work is to analyse how changes in wave patterns due to the effect of climate change can affect harbour agitation (oscillations within the port due to wind waves). The study focuses on 13 harbours located on the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) using a methodology with general applicability. To obtain the patterns of agitation, a Boussinesq-type model is used, which is forced at the boundaries by present/future offshore wave conditions extracted from recently developed high-resolution wave projections in the NW Mediterranean. These wave projections were obtained with the SWAN model forced by present/future surface wind fields projected, respectively, by five different combinations of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) for the A1B scenario. The results show a general slight reduction in the annual average agitation for most of the ports, except for the northernmost and southernmost areas of the region, where a slight increase is obtained. A seasonal analysis reveals that the tendency to decrease is accentuated in winter. However, the inter-model variability is large for both the winter and the annual analysis. Conversely, a general increase with a larger agreement among models is found during summer, which is the period with greater activity in most of the studied ports (marinas). A qualitative assessment of the factors of variability seems to indicate that the choice of GCM tends to affect the spatial pattern, whereas the choice of RCM induces a more homogeneous bias over the regional domain.

Beschreibung: Utilisation of CryoSat-2 SAR altimeter in operational ice charting The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4117-4145, 2015 Author(s): E. Rinne and M. Similä We present methods to utilise Cryosat-2 (CS-2) Synthetic Aperture (SAR) mode data in operational ice charting. We compare CS-2 data qualitatively to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mosaics over Barents and Kara seas. Furthermore, we compare the CS-2 to archived operational ice charts. We present distributions of four CS-2 waveform parameters for different ice types as presented in the ice charts. We go on to present an automatic classification method for CS-2 data which, after training with operational ice charts, is capable of determining open water from ice with a hit rate of 〉 90 %. The training data is dynamically updated every five days using the most recent 15 days CS-2 data and operative ice charts. This helps the adaption of the classifier to the evolving ice/snow conditions throughout winter. The classifier is also capable of detecting three different ice classes (thin and thick first year ice as well as old ice) with success rates good enough for the output to be usable to support operational ice charting. Finally, we present a near real time CS-2 product just plotting the waveform characteristics and conclude that even such a simple product is usable for some of the needs of ice charting.

Beschreibung: Relating seasonal dynamics of enhanced vegetation index to the recycling of water in two endorheic river basins in north-west China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3387-3403, 2015 Author(s): M. A. Matin and C. P.-A. Bourque This study associates the dynamics of enhanced vegetation index in lowland desert oases to the recycling of water in two endorheic (hydrologically closed) river basins in Gansu Province, north-west China, along a gradient of elevation zones and land cover types. Each river basin was subdivided into four elevation zones representative of (i) oasis plains and foothills, and (ii) low-, (iii) mid-, and (iv) high-mountain elevations. Comparison of monthly vegetation phenology with precipitation and snowmelt dynamics within the same basins over a 10-year period (2000–2009) suggested that the onset of the precipitation season (cumulative % precipitation 〉 7–8 %) in the mountains, typically in late April to early May, was triggered by the greening of vegetation and increased production of water vapour at the base of the mountains. Seasonal evolution of in-mountain precipitation correlated fairly well with the temporal variation in oasis-vegetation coverage and phenology characterised by monthly enhanced vegetation index, yielding coefficients of determination of 0.65 and 0.85 for the two basins. Convergent cross-mapping of related time series indicated bi-directional causality (feedback) between the two variables. Comparisons between same-zone monthly precipitation amounts and enhanced vegetation index provided weaker correlations. Start of the growing season in the oases was shown to coincide with favourable spring warming and discharge of meltwater from low- to mid-elevations of the Qilian Mountains (zones 1 and 2) in mid-to-late March. In terms of plant requirement for water, mid-seasonal development of oasis vegetation was seen to be controlled to a greater extent by the production of rain in the mountains. Comparison of water volumes associated with in-basin production of rainfall and snowmelt with that associated with evaporation seemed to suggest that about 90 % of the available liquid water (i.e. mostly in the form of direct rainfall and snowmelt in the mountains) was recycled locally.

Beschreibung: Investigating suspended sediment dynamics in contrasting agricultural catchments using ex situ turbidity-based suspended sediment monitoring Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3349-3363, 2015 Author(s): S. C. Sherriff, J. S. Rowan, A. R. Melland, P. Jordan, O. Fenton, and D. Ó hUallacháin Soil erosion and suspended sediment (SS) pose risks to chemical and ecological water quality. Agricultural activities may accelerate erosional fluxes from bare, poached or compacted soils, and enhance connectivity through modified channels and artificial drainage networks. Storm-event fluxes dominate SS transport in agricultural catchments; therefore, high temporal-resolution monitoring approaches are required, but can be expensive and technically challenging. Here, the performance of in situ turbidity sensors, conventionally installed submerged at the river bankside, is compared with installations where river water is delivered to sensors ex situ, i.e. within instrument kiosks on the riverbank, at two experimental catchments (Grassland B and Arable B). The in situ and ex situ installations gave comparable results when calibrated against storm-period, depth-integrated SS data, with total loads at Grassland B estimated at 12 800 and 15 400 t, and 22 600 and 24 900 t at Arable B, respectively. The absence of spurious turbidity readings relating to bankside debris around the in situ sensor and its greater security make the ex situ sensor more robust. The ex situ approach was then used to characterise SS dynamics and fluxes in five intensively managed agricultural catchments in Ireland which feature a range of landscape characteristics and land use pressures. Average annual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) was below the Freshwater Fish Directive (78/659/EEC) guideline of 25 mg L −1 , and the continuous hourly record demonstrated that exceedance occurred less than 12 % of the observation year. Soil drainage class and proportion of arable land were key controls determining flux rates, but all catchments reported a high degree of inter-annual variability associated with variable precipitation patterns compared to the long-term average. Poorly drained soils had greater sensitivity to runoff and soil erosion, particularly in catchments with periods of bare soils. Well drained soils were less sensitive to erosion even on arable land; however, under extreme rainfall conditions, all bare soils remain a high sediment loss risk. Analysis of storm-period and seasonal dynamics (over the long term) using high-resolution monitoring would be beneficial to further explore the impact of landscape, climate and land use characteristics on SS export.

Beschreibung: Landscape heterogeneity drives contrasting concentration–discharge relationships in shale headwater catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3333-3347, 2015 Author(s): E. M. Herndon, A. L. Dere, P. L. Sullivan, D. Norris, B. Reynolds, and S. L. Brantley Solute concentrations in stream water vary with discharge in patterns that record complex feedbacks between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. In a comparison of three shale-underlain headwater catchments located in Pennsylvania, USA (the forested Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory), and Wales, UK (the peatland-dominated Upper Hafren and forest-dominated Upper Hore catchments in the Plynlimon forest), dissimilar concentration–discharge ( C – Q ) behaviors are best explained by contrasting landscape distributions of soil solution chemistry – especially dissolved organic carbon (DOC) – that have been established by patterns of vegetation and soil organic matter (SOM). Specifically, elements that are concentrated in organic-rich soils due to biotic cycling (Mn, Ca, K) or that form strong complexes with DOC (Fe, Al) are spatially heterogeneous in pore waters because organic matter is heterogeneously distributed across the catchments. These solutes exhibit non-chemostatic behavior in the streams, and solute concentrations either decrease (Shale Hills) or increase (Plynlimon) with increasing discharge. In contrast, solutes that are concentrated in soil minerals and form only weak complexes with DOC (Na, Mg, Si) are spatially homogeneous in pore waters across each catchment. These solutes are chemostatic in that their stream concentrations vary little with stream discharge, likely because these solutes are released quickly from exchange sites in the soils during rainfall events. Furthermore, concentration–discharge relationships of non-chemostatic solutes changed following tree harvest in the Upper Hore catchment in Plynlimon, while no changes were observed for chemostatic solutes, underscoring the role of vegetation in regulating the concentrations of certain elements in the stream. These results indicate that differences in the hydrologic connectivity of organic-rich soils to the stream drive differences in concentration behavior between catchments. As such, in catchments where SOM is dominantly in lowlands (e.g., Shale Hills), we infer that non-chemostatic elements associated with organic matter are released to the stream early during rainfall events, whereas in catchments where SOM is dominantly in uplands (e.g., Plynlimon), these non-chemostatic elements are released later during rainfall events. The distribution of SOM across the landscape is thus a key component for predictive models of solute transport in headwater catchments.

Beschreibung: Future changes in flash flood frequency and intensity of the Tha Di River (Thailand) based on rainfall–runoff modeling and advanced delta change scaling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7327-7352, 2015 Author(s): S. Hilgert, A. Wagner, and S. Fuchs As a consequence of climate change, extreme and flood-causing precipitation events are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, especially in today's high-precipitation areas. During the north-east monsoon seasons, Nakhon Si Thammarat in southern Thailand is flash-flooded every 2.22 years on average. This study investigates frequency and intensity of harmful discharges of the Tha Di River regarding the IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2. The regional climate model (RCM) PRECIS was transformed using the advanced delta change (ADC) method. The hydrologic response model HBV-Light was calibrated to the catchment and supplied with ADC-scaled daily precipitation and temperature data for 2010–2089. Under the A2 (B2) scenario, the flood threshold exceedance frequency on average increases by 133 % (decreases by 10 %), average flood intensity increases by 3 % (decreases by 2 %) and the annual top five discharge peaks intensities increase by 46 % (decrease by 5 %). Yearly precipitation sums increase by 30 % (10 %) towards the end of the century. The A2 scenario predicts a precipitation increase during the rainy season, which intensifies flood events; while increases projected exclusively for the dry season are not expected to cause floods. Retention volume demand of past events was calculated to be up to 12 × 10 6 m 3 . Flood risks are staying at high levels under the B2 scenario or increase dramatically under the A2 scenario. Results show that the RCM scaling process is inflicted with systematic biases but is crucial to investigate small, mountainous catchments. Improvement of scaling techniques should therefore accompany the development towards high-resolution climate models.

Beschreibung: A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3365-3385, 2015 Author(s): V. Thiemig, B. Bisselink, F. Pappenberger, and J. Thielen The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts) and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper, the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 when important floods were observed. Results were verified by ground measurements of 36 sub-catchments as well as by reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (〉 1 week) and large affected areas (〉 10 000 km 2 ) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

Beschreibung: A comprehensive filtering scheme for high-resolution estimation of the water balance components from high-precision lysimeters Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3405-3418, 2015 Author(s): M. Hannes, U. Wollschläger, F. Schrader, W. Durner, S. Gebler, T. Pütz, J. Fank, G. von Unold, and H.-J. Vogel Large weighing lysimeters are currently the most precise method to directly measure all components of the terrestrial water balance in parallel via the built-in weighing system. As lysimeters are exposed to several external forces such as management practices or wind influencing the weighing data, the calculated fluxes of precipitation and evapotranspiration can be altered considerably without having applied appropriate corrections to the raw data. Therefore, adequate filtering schemes for obtaining most accurate estimates of the water balance components are required. In this study, we use data from the TERENO (TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories) SoilCan research site in Bad Lauchstädt to develop a comprehensive filtering procedure for high-precision lysimeter data, which is designed to deal with various kinds of possible errors starting from the elimination of large disturbances in the raw data resulting e.g., from management practices all the way to the reduction of noise caused e.g., by moderate wind. Furthermore, we analyze the influence of averaging times and thresholds required by some of the filtering steps on the calculated water balance and investigate the ability of two adaptive filtering methods (the adaptive window and adaptive threshold filter (AWAT filter; Peters et al., 2014), and a new synchro filter applicable to the data from a set of several lysimeters) to further reduce the filtering error. Finally, we take advantage of the data sets of all 18 lysimeters running in parallel at the Bad Lauchstädt site to evaluate the performance and accuracy of the proposed filtering scheme. For the tested time interval of 2 months, we show that the estimation of the water balance with high temporal resolution and good accuracy is possible. The filtering code can be downloaded from the journal website as Supplement to this publication.

Beschreibung: Assimilation of Antarctic velocity observations provides evidence for uncharted pinning points The Cryosphere, 9, 1427-1443, 2015 Author(s): J. J. Fürst, G. Durand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, N. Merino, L. Tavard, J. Mouginot, N. Gourmelen, and O. Gagliardini In ice flow modelling, the use of control methods to assimilate the dynamic and geometric state of an ice body has become common practice. These methods have primarily focussed on inverting for one of the two least known properties in glaciology, namely the basal friction coefficient or the ice viscosity parameter. Here, we present an approach to infer both properties simultaneously for the whole of the Antarctic ice sheet. After the assimilation, the root-mean-square deviation between modelled and observed surface velocities attains 8.7 m a −1 for the entire domain, with a slightly higher value of 14.0 m a −1 for the ice shelves. An exception in terms of the velocity mismatch is the Thwaites Glacier Ice Shelf, where the RMS value is almost 70 m a −1 . The reason is that the underlying Bedmap2 geometry ignores the presence of an ice rise, which exerts major control on the dynamics of the eastern part of the ice shelf. On these grounds, we suggest an approach to account for pinning points not included in Bedmap2 by locally allowing an optimisation of basal friction during the inversion. In this way, the velocity mismatch on the ice shelf of Thwaites Glacier is more than halved. A characteristic velocity mismatch pattern emerges for unaccounted pinning points close to the marine shelf front. This pattern is exploited to manually identify seven uncharted features around Antarctica that exert significant resistance to the shelf flow. Potential pinning points are detected on Fimbul, West, Shackleton, Nickerson and Venable ice shelves. As pinning points can provide substantial resistance to shelf flow, with considerable consequences if they became ungrounded in the future, the model community is in need of detailed bathymetry there. Our data assimilation points to some of these dynamically important features not present in Bedmap2 and implicitly quantifies their relevance.

Beschreibung: Long-term coastal-polynya dynamics in the Southern Weddell Sea from MODIS thermal-infrared imagery The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 3959-3993, 2015 Author(s): S. Paul, S. Willmes, and G. Heinemann Based upon high-resolution thermal-infrared Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery in combination with ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data, we derived long-term polynya parameters such as polynya area, thin-ice thickness distribution and ice-production rates from daily cloud-cover corrected thin-ice thickness composites. Our study is based on a thirteen year investigation period (2002–2014) for the austral winter (1 April to 30 September) in the Antarctic Southern Weddell Sea. The focus lies on coastal polynyas which are important hot spots for new-ice formation, bottom-water formation and heat/moisture release into the atmosphere. MODIS has the capability to resolve even very narrow coastal polynyas. Its major disadvantage is the sensor limitation due to cloud cover. We make use of a newly developed and adapted spatial feature reconstruction scheme to account for cloud-covered areas. We find the sea-ice areas in front of Ronne and Brunt Ice Shelf to be the most active with an annual average polynya area of 3018 ± 1298 and 3516 ± 1420 km 2 as well as an accumulated volume ice production of 31 ± 13 and 31 ± 12 km 3 , respectively. For the remaining four regions, estimates amount to 421 ± 294 km 2 and 4 ± 3 km 3 (Antarctic Peninsula), 1148 ± 432 km 2 and 12 ± 5 km 3 (Iceberg A23A), 901 ± 703 km 2 and 10 ± 8 km 3 (Filchner Ice Shelf) as well as 499 ± 277 km 2 and 5 ± 2 km 3 (Coats Land). Our findings are discussed in comparison to recent studies based on coupled sea-ice/ocean models and passive-microwave satellite imagery, each investigating different parts of the Southern Weddell Sea.

Beschreibung: Climatic controls and climate proxy potential of Lewis Glacier, Mt Kenya The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 3887-3924, 2015 Author(s): R. Prinz, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. Gurgiser, and G. Kaser The Lewis Glacier on Mt Kenya is one of the best studied tropical glaciers and has experienced considerable retreat since a maximum extent in the late 19th century (L19). From distributed mass and energy balance modelling, this study evaluates the current sensitivity of the surface mass and energy balance to climatic drivers, explores climate conditions under which the L19 maximum extent might have sustained, and discusses the potential for using the glacier retreat to quantify climate change. Multiyear meteorological measurements at 4828 m provide data for input, optimization and evaluation of a spatially distributed glacier mass balance model to quantify the exchanges of energy and mass at the glacier–atmosphere interface. Currently the glacier loses mass due to the imbalance between insufficient accumulation and enhanced melt, because radiative energy gains cannot be compensated by turbulent energy sinks. Exchanging model input data with synthetic climate scenarios, which were sampled from the meteorological measurements and account for coupled climatic variable perturbations, reveal that the current mass balance is most sensitive to changes in atmospheric moisture (via its impact on solid precipitation, cloudiness and surface albedo). Positive mass balances result from scenarios with an increase of annual (seasonal) accumulation of 30 % (100 %), compared to values observed today, without significant changes in air temperature required. Scenarios with lower air temperatures are drier and associated with lower accumulation and increased net radiation due to reduced cloudiness and albedo. If the scenarios currently producing positive mass balances are applied to the L19 extent, negative mass balances are the result, meaning that the conditions required to sustain the glacier in its L19 extent are not reflected in today's observations. Alternatively, a balanced mass budget for the L19 extent can be explained by changing model parameters that imply a distinctly different coupling between the glacier's local surface-air layer and its surrounding boundary-layer. This result underlines the difficulty of deriving paleoclimates for larger glacier extents on the basis of modern measurements of small glaciers.

Beschreibung: Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread – Part II: Ensemble Kalman Filter for the state estimation of a front-tracking simulator of wildfire spread Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1721-1739, 2015 Author(s): M. C. Rochoux, C. Emery, S. Ricci, B. Cuenot, and A. Trouvé This paper is the second part in a series of two articles, which aims at presenting a data-driven modeling strategy for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios based on the assimilation of the observed fire front location and on the sequential correction of model parameters or model state. This model relies on an estimation of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's semi-empirical formulation, in order to propagate the fire front with an Eulerian front-tracking simulator. In Part I, a data assimilation (DA) system based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was implemented to provide a spatially uniform correction of biomass fuel and wind parameters and thereby, produce an improved forecast of the wildfire behavior (addressing uncertainties in the input parameters of the ROS model only). In Part II, the objective of the EnKF algorithm is to sequentially update the two-dimensional coordinates of the markers along the discretized fire front, in order to provide a spatially distributed correction of the fire front location and thereby, a more reliable initial condition for further model time-integration (addressing all sources of uncertainties in the ROS model). The resulting prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator is first evaluated in a series of verification tests using synthetically generated observations; tests include representative cases with spatially varying biomass properties and temporally varying wind conditions. In order to properly account for uncertainties during the EnKF update step and to accurately represent error correlations along the fireline, it is shown that members of the EnKF ensemble must be generated through variations in estimates of the fire's initial location as well as through variations in the parameters of the ROS model. The performance of the prototype simulator based on state estimation (SE) or parameter estimation (PE) is then evaluated by comparison with data taken from a reduced-scale controlled grassland fire experiment. Results indicate that data-driven simulations are capable of correcting inaccurate predictions of the fire front location and of subsequently providing an optimized forecast of the wildfire behavior at future lead times. The complementary benefits of both PE and SE approaches, in terms of analysis and forecast performance, are also emphasized. In particular, it is found that the size of the assimilation window must be specified adequately with the persistence of the model initial condition and/or with the temporal and spatial variability of the environmental conditions in order to track sudden changes in wildfire behavior. The present prototype data-driven forecast system is still at an early stage of development. In this regard, this preliminary investigation provides valuable information on how to combine observations with a fire spread model in an efficient way, as well as guidelines to design the future system evolution in order to meet the operational requirements of wildfire spread monitoring.

Beschreibung: Yield and quality estimations provide vital information to fruit growers, yet require accurate monitoring throughout the growing season. To this end, the temporal dependency of fruit yield and quality estimations through spectral vegetation indices was investigated in irrigated and rainfed pear orchards. Both orchards were monitored throughout three consecutive growing seasons, including spectral measurements (i.e., hyperspectral canopy reflectance measurements) as well as yield determination (i.e., total yield and number of fruits per tree) and quality assessment (i.e., fruit firmness, total soluble solids and fruit color). The results illustrated a clear association between spectral vegetation indices and both fruit yield and fruit quality (|r| > 0.75; p 〈 0.001). However, the correlations between vegetation indices and production variables varied throughout the growing season, depending on the phenological stage of fruit development. In the irrigated orchard, index values showed a strong association with production variables near time of harvest (|r| > 0.6; p 〈 0.001), while in the rainfed orchard, index values acquired during vegetative growth periods presented stronger correlations with fruit parameters (|r| > 0.6; p 〈 0.001). The improved planning of remote sensing missions during (rainfed orchards) and after (irrigated orchards) vegetative growth periods could enable growers to more accurately predict production outcomes and improve the production process.

Beschreibung: Multiscale evaluation of the standardized precipitation index as a groundwater drought indicator Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7405-7436, 2015 Author(s): R. Kumar, J. L. Musuuza, A. F. Van Loon, A. J. Teuling, R. Barthel, J. Ten Broek, J. Mai, L. Samaniego, and S. Attinger The lack of comprehensive groundwater observations at regional and global scales has promoted the use of alternative proxies and indices to quantify and predict groundwater droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is commonly used to characterize droughts in different compartments of the hydro-meteorological system. In this study, we explore the suitability of the SPI to characterize local and regional scale groundwater droughts using observations at more than 2000 groundwater wells in geologically different areas in Germany and the Netherlands. A multiscale evaluation of the SPI is performed using the station data and their corresponding 0.5° gridded estimates to analyze the local and regional behavior of groundwater droughts, respectively. The standardized anomalies in the groundwater heads (SGI) were correlated against SPIs obtained using different accumulation periods. The accumulation periods to achieve maximum correlation exhibited high spatial variability (ranges 3 to 36 months) at both scales, leading to the conclusion that an a priori selection of the accumulation period (for computing the SPI) would result in inadequate characterization of groundwater droughts. The application of the uniform accumulation periods over the entire domain significantly reduced the correlation between SPI and SGI (≈ 21–66 %) indicating the limited applicability of SPI as a proxy for groundwater droughts even at long accumulation times. Furthermore, the low scores of the hit rate (0.3–0.6) and high false alarm ratio (0.4–0.7) at the majority of the wells and grid cells demonstrated the low reliability of groundwater drought predictions using the SPI. The findings of this study highlight the pitfalls of using the SPI as a groundwater drought indicator at both local and regional scales, and stress the need for more groundwater observations and accounting for regional hydrogeological characteristics in groundwater drought monitoring.

Beschreibung: Comparing the Ensemble and Extended Kalman Filters for in situ soil moisture assimilation with contrasting soil conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7353-7403, 2015 Author(s): D. Fairbairn, A. L. Barbu, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-C. Calvet, and E. Gelati Two data assimilation methods are compared for their ability to produce a deterministic soil moisture analysis on the Météo-France land surface model: (i) SEKF, a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter, which uses a climatological background-error covariance, (ii) EnSRF, the Ensemble Square Root Filter, which uses an ensemble background-error covariance and approximates random forcing errors stochastically. The accuracy of the deterministic analysis is measured on 12 sites with in situ observations and various soil textures in Southwest France (SMOSMANIA network). In the experiments with real observations, the two methods perform similarly and improve on the open loop. Both methods suffer from incorrect linear assumptions which are particularly degrading to the analysis during water-stressed conditions: the EnSRF by a dry bias and the SEKF by an over-sensitivity of the model Jacobian between the surface and the root zone layers. These problems are less severe for sandy soils than clay soils because sandy soils are less sensitive to perturbations in the initial conditions. A simple bias correction technique is tested on the EnSRF. Although this reduces the bias, it also suppresses the ensemble spread, which degrades the analysis performance. However, the EnSRF flow-dependent background-error covariance evidently captures seasonal variability in the soil moisture errors and should exploit planned improvements in the model physics. Synthetic experiments demonstrate that when there is only a random component in the precipitation forcing errors, the correct stochastic representation of these errors enables the EnSRF to perform better than the SEKF. But in the real experiments the same rainfall error specification does not improve the EnSRF analysis. It is likely that the actual rainfall errors are underestimated and that other sources of errors could limit the usefulness of this information. More comprehensive ways of representing the rainfall errors are suggested, which might improve the EnSRF performance.

Beschreibung: Morphological dynamics of an englacial channel Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7615-7664, 2015 Author(s): G. Vatne and T. D. L. Irvine-Fynn Despite an interest in the hydraulic functioning of supraglacial and englacial channels over the last four decades, the processes and forms of such ice-bounded streams have remained poorly documented. Recent glaciological research has demonstrated the potential significance of so-called "cut and closure" streams, where englacial or subglacial flowpaths are created from the long-term incision of supraglacial channels. These flowpaths are reported to exhibit step-pool morphology, comprising knickpoints and/or knickzones, albeit exaggerated in dimensions in comparison to their supraglacial channel counterparts. However, little is known of the development of such channels' morphology. Here, we examine the spatial organization of step-pools and the upstream migration of steps, many of which form knickzones, with repeated surveys over a 10 year period in an englacial conduit in cold-based Austre Brøggerbreen, Svalbard. The observations show upstream knickpoint recession to be the dominant process for channel evolution. This is paralleled by an increase in average step height and conduit gradient over time. Characteristic channel reach types and step-riser forms are consistently observed in each of the morphological surveys reported. We suggest that the formation of steps has a hydrodynamic origin, where step-pool geometry is more efficient for energy dissipation than meanders, and that the englacial channel system is one in rapid transition rather than in dynamic equilibrium. The evolution and recession of knickzones reported here result in the formation of a 37 m moulin, suggesting over time the englacial channel may evolve towards a stable end-point characterised by a singular vertical descent to the local hydraulic base level. In light of this, our observations highlight the need to further examine the adjustment processes in cut-and-closure channels to better understand their coupling to supraglacial meltwater sources and role and potential significance in cold-based glacier hydrology and ice dynamics.

Beschreibung: Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP) area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland) was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm–dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm–wet conditions in the western region may promote vegetation growth.

Beschreibung: Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4663-4693, 2015 Author(s): M. Wronna, R. Omira, and M. A. Baptista In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines – Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km 2 .

Beschreibung: Multispectral, as well as multi-temporal, satellite images, coupled with measurements, in situ, have been widely applied to the water quality monitoring of reservoirs. However, the spatial resolutions of the current multispectral satellite imageries are inadequate for trophic state mapping of small reservoirs which merely cover several hectares. Moreover, the temporal gap between effective satellite imaging and measurements, in situ, is usually a few days or weeks; this time lag hampers the establishment of regression models between band ratios and water quality parameters. In this research, the RGB and NIR sensors carried on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) were applied to the trophic state mapping of Tain-Pu reservoir, which is one of the small reservoirs in Kinmen, Taiwan. Due to the limited sampling points and the uncertainty of water fluidity, the average method and the matching pixel-by-pixel (MPP) method were employed to search for the optimal regression models. The experimental results indicate that the MPP method can lead to better regression models than the average method, and the trophic state maps show that the averages of Chl-a, TP, and SD are 179.7 μg·L−1, 108.4 μg·L−1, and 1.4 m, respectively.

Beschreibung: In this study, a methodology for glacier elevation reconstruction from Digital Elevation Model (DEM) time series (tDEM) is described for modeling the evolution of glacier elevation and estimating related volume change, with focus on medium-resolution and noisy satellite DEMs. The method is robust with respect to outliers in individual DEM products. Fox Glacier and Franz Josef Glacier in New Zealand are used as test cases based on 31 Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) DEMs and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM. We obtained a mean surface elevation lowering rate of −0.51 ± 0.02 m·a−1 and −0.09 ± 0.02 m·a−1 between 2000 and 2014 for Fox and Franz Josef Glacier, respectively. The specific volume difference between 2000 and 2014 was estimated as −0.77 ± 0.13 m·a−1 and −0.33 ± 0.06 m·a−1 by our tDEM method. The comparably moderate thinning rates are mainly due to volume gains after 2013 that compensate larger thinning rates earlier in the series. Terminus thickening prevailed between 2002 and 2007.

Beschreibung: The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology combing multi-temporal X-band SAR images (TerraSAR-X) with continuous ground thetaprobe measurements, for the retrieval of surface soil moisture and texture at a high spatial resolution. Our analysis is based on seven radar images acquired at a 36° incidence angle in the HH polarization, over a semi-arid site in Tunisia (North Africa). The soil moisture estimations are based on an empirical change detection approach using TerraSAR-X data and ground auxiliary thetaprobe network measurements. Two assumptions were tested: (1) roughness variations during the three-month radar acquisition campaigns were not accounted for; (2) a simple correction for temporal variations in roughness was included. The results reveal a small improvement in the estimation of soil moisture when a correction for temporal variations in roughness is introduced. By considering the estimated temporal dynamics of soil moisture, a methodology is proposed for the retrieval of clay and sand content (expressed as percentages) in soil. Two empirical relationships were established between the mean moisture values retrieved from the seven acquired radar images and the two soil texture components over 36 test fields. Validation of the proposed approach was carried out over a second set of 34 fields, showing that highly accurate clay estimations can be achieved. Maps of soil moisture, clay and sand percentages at the studied site are derived.

Beschreibung: In close-range photogrammetry, images are difficult to acquire and organize primarily because of the limited field of view (FOV) of digital cameras when long focal lenses are used to measure large targets. To overcome this problem, we apply a scanning photography method that acquires images by rotating the camera in both horizontal and vertical directions at one station. This approach not only enlarges the FOV of each station but also ensures that all stations are distributed in order without coverage gap. We also conduct a modified triangulation according to the traits of the data overlapping among images from the same station to avoid matching all images with one another. This algorithm synthesizes the images acquired from the same station into synthetic images, which are then used to generate a free network. Consequently, we solve the exterior orientation elements of each original camera image in the free network and perform image matching among original images to obtain tie points. Finally, all original images are combined in self-calibration bundle adjustment with control points. The feasibility and precision of the proposed method are validated by testing it on two fields using 300 and 600 mm lenses. The results confirm that even with a small amount of control points, the developed scanning photogrammetry can steadily achieve millimeter scale accuracy at distances ranging from 40 m to 250 m.

Beschreibung: The impact of near-surface soil moisture assimilation at subseasonal, seasonal, and inter-annual time scales Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7971-8004, 2015 Author(s): C. Draper and R. Reichle Nine years of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into the Catchment land surface model at four locations in the US. The assimilation is evaluated using the unbiased Mean Square Error (ubMSE) relative to watershed-scale in situ observations, with the ubMSE separated into contributions from the subseasonal (SM short ), mean seasonal (SM seas ) and inter-annual (SM long ) soil moisture dynamics. For near-surface soil moisture, the average ubMSE for Catchment without assimilation was (1.8 × 10 −3 m 3 m −3 ) 2 , of which 19 % was in SM long , 26 % in SM seas , and 55 % in SM short . The AMSR-E assimilation significantly reduced the total ubMSE at every site, with an average reduction of 33 %. Of this ubMSE reduction, 37 % occurred in SM long , 24 % in SM seas , and 38 % in SM short . For root-zone soil moisture, in situ observations were available at one site only, and the near-surface and root-zone results were very similar at this site. These results suggest that, in addition to the well-reported improvements in SM short , assimilating a sufficiently long soil moisture data record can also improve the model representation of important long term events, such as droughts. The improved agreement between the modeled and in situ SM seas is harder to interpret, given that mean seasonal cycle errors are systematic, and systematic errors are not typically targeted by (bias-blind) data assimilation. Finally, the use of one year subsets of the AMSR-E and Catchment soil moisture for estimating the observation-bias correction (rescaling) parameters is investigated. It is concluded that when only one year of data is available, the associated uncertainty in the rescaling parameters should not greatly reduce the average benefit gained from data assimilation, but locally and in extreme years there is a risk of increased errors.

Beschreibung: Rice farming in Northeast China is crucially important for China’s food security and sustainable development. A key challenge is how to optimize nitrogen (N) management to ensure high yield production while improving N use efficiency and protecting the environment. Handheld chlorophyll meter (CM) and active crop canopy sensors have been used to improve rice N management in this region. However, these technologies are still time consuming for large-scale applications. Satellite remote sensing provides a promising technology for large-scale crop growth monitoring and precision management. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of using FORMOSAT-2 satellite images to diagnose rice N status for guiding topdressing N application at the stem elongation stage in Northeast China. Five farmers’ fields (three in 2011 and two in 2012) were selected from the Qixing Farm in Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China. FORMOSAT-2 satellite images were collected in late June. Simultaneously, 92 field samples were collected and six agronomic variables, including aboveground biomass, leaf area index (LAI), plant N concentration (PNC), plant N uptake (PNU), CM readings and N nutrition index (NNI) defined as the ratio of actual PNC and critical PNC, were determined. Based on the FORMOSAT-2 imagery, a total of 50 vegetation indices (VIs) were computed and correlated with the field-based agronomic variables. Results indicated that 45% of NNI variability could be explained using Ratio Vegetation Index 3 (RVI3) directly across years. A more practical and promising approach was proposed by using satellite remote sensing to estimate aboveground biomass and PNU at the panicle initiation stage and then using these two variables to estimate NNI indirectly (R2 = 0.52 across years). Further, the difference between the estimated PNU and the critical PNU can be used to guide the topdressing N application rate adjustments.

Beschreibung: Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) is a state of the art technology to assess forest aboveground biomass (AGB). To date, methods developed to relate Lidar metrics with forest parameters were built upon the vertical component of the data. In multi-layered tropical forests, signal penetration might be restricted, limiting the efficiency of these methods. A potential way for improving AGB models in such forests would be to combine traditional approaches by descriptors of the horizontal canopy structure. We assessed the capability and complementarity of three recently proposed methods for assessing AGB at the plot level using point distributional approach (DM), canopy volume profile approach (CVP), 2D canopy grain approach (FOTO), and further evaluated the potential of a topographical complexity index (TCI) to explain part of the variability of AGB with slope. This research has been conducted in a mountainous wet evergreen tropical forest of Western Ghats in India. AGB biomass models were developed using a best subset regression approach, and model performance was assessed through cross-validation. Results demonstrated that the variability in AGB could be efficiently captured when variables describing both the vertical (DM or CVP) and horizontal (FOTO) structure were combined. Integrating FOTO metrics with those of either DM or CVP decreased the root mean squared error of the models by 4.42% and 6.01%, respectively. These results are of high interest for AGB mapping in the tropics and could significantly contribute to the REDD+ program. Model quality could be further enhanced by improving the robustness of field-based biomass models and influence of topography on area-based Lidar descriptors of the forest structure.

Beschreibung: This paper presents a rigorous validation of five widely used global land cover products, i.e., GLCC (Global Land Cover Characterization), UMd (University of Maryland land cover product), GLC2000 (Global Land Cover 2000 project data), MODIS LC (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer Land Cover product) and GlobCover (GLOBCOVER land cover product), and a national land cover map GLCD-2005 (Geodata Land Cover Dataset for year 2005) against an independent reference data set over China. The land cover reference data sets in three epochs (1990, 2000, and 2005) were collected on a web-based prototype system using a sampling-based labeling approach. Results show that, in China, the highest overall accuracy is observed in GLCD-2005 (72.3%), followed by MODIS LC (68.9%), GLC2000 (65.2%), GlobCover (57.7%) and GLCC (57.2%), while UMd has the lowest accuracy (48.6%); all of the products performed best in representing “Trees” and “Others”, well with “Grassland” and “Cropland”, but problematic with “Water” and “Urban” across China in general. Moreover, in respect of GLCD-2005, there are significant accuracy differences across seven geographical locations of China, ranging from 46.3% in the Southwest, 77.5% in the South, 79.2% in the Northwest, 80.8% in the North, 81.8% in the Northeast, 82.6% in the Central, to 89.0% in the East. This study indicates that a regionally focused land cover map would in fact be more accurate than extracting the same region from a globally produced map.

Beschreibung: This study proposes a method to recognize façades from large-scale urban scenes based on multi-level image features utilizing a recently developed oblique aerial photogrammetry technique. The method involves the use of multi-level image features, a bottom-up feature extraction procedure to produce regions of interest through monoscopic analysis, and then a coarse-to-fine feature matching strategy to characterise and match the regions in a stereoscopic model. Feature extraction from typical urban Manhattan scenes is based on line segments. Windows are re-organised based on the spatial constraints of line segments and the homogeneous structure of the spectrum. Façades as regions of interest are successfully constructed with a remarkable single edge and evidence from windows to get rid of occlusion. Feature matching is hierarchically performed beginning from distinctive facades and regularly distributed windows to the sub-pixel point primitives. The proposed strategy can effectively solve ambiguity and multi-solution problems in the complex urban scene matching process, particularly repetitive and poor-texture façades in oblique view.

Beschreibung: In this study, an algorithm to retrieve the gravimetric vegetation water content (GVWC, %) of corn was developed. First, the method for obtaining the optical depth from L-band (1.4 GHz) bi-angular, dual-polarized brightness temperatures (TB) for short vegetation was investigated. Then, the quantitative relationship between the corn optical depth, corn GVWC and corn leaf area index (LAI) was constructed. Finally, using the Polarimetric L-band Microwave Radiometer (PLMR) airborne data in the 2012 Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (HiWATER) project, the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) LAI product, the height and areal density of the corn stalks, the corn GVWC was estimated (corn GLASS-GVWC). Both the in situ measured corn GVWC and the corn GVWC retrieved based on the in situ measured corn LAI (corn LAINET-GVWC) were used to validate the accuracy of the corn GLASS-GVWC. The results show that the GVWC retrieval method proposed in this study is feasible for monitoring the corn GVWC. However, the accuracy of the retrieval results is highly sensitive to the accuracy of the LAI input parameters.

Beschreibung: As the fifth largest freshwater lake in China, Lake Chaohu has drawn increasing attention due to the decline in water quality and the occurrence of massive algal blooms. We applied an algae pixel-growing algorithm to MODIS Terra or Aqua data (2100 images) to characterize surface floating algae bloom dynamics from 2000 to 2013 with respect to meteorological and lake nutrient conditions. The results show an increase in surface algal bloom coverage, frequency, and duration with a trend toward earlier bloom formation. Importantly, spatial and temporal patterns in the historically less compromised eastern and middle lake areas show that water quality conditions are deteriorating. This has occurred at the same time as lake management has made a catchment scale effort to reduce impact. Our results show that nutrient concentrations were not the main driver of inter-annual bloom variations. Local meteorological conditions, in particular wind speed and temperature, played an important role in the dynamics of floating algal bloom. This highlights the important challenges for lake management.

Beschreibung: Burn severity metrics and classification have yet to be tested for many eastern U.S. deciduous vegetation types, but, if suitable, would be valuable for documenting and monitoring landscape-scale restoration projects that employ prescribed fire treatments. Here we present a performance analysis of the Composite Burn Index (CBI) and its relationship to spectral data (differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and its relative form (RdNBR)) across an oak woodland - grassland landscape in southwestern Oklahoma, USA. Correlation and regression analyses were used to compare CBI strata, assess models describing burn severity, and determine thresholds for burn severity classes. Confusion matrices were used to assess burn severity classification accuracy. Our findings suggest that dNBR and RdNBR, thresholded using total CBI, can produce an accurate burn severity map in oak woodlands, particularly from an initial assessment period. Lower accuracies occurred for burn severity classifications of grasslands and raises questions related to definitions and detection of burn severity for grasslands, particularly in transition to more densely treed structures such as savannas and woodlands.

Beschreibung: Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate The Cryosphere, 9, 1579-1600, 2015 Author(s): S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.

Beschreibung: A method for predicting the factor of safety of an infinite slope based on the depth ratio of the wetting front induced by rainfall infiltration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1835-1849, 2015 Author(s): B.-G. Chae, J.-H. Lee, H.-J. Park, and J. Choi Most landslides in Korea are classified as shallow landslides with an average depth of less than 2 m. These shallow landslides are associated with the advance of a wetting front in the unsaturated soil due to rainfall infiltration, which results in an increase in water content and a reduction in the matric suction in the soil. Therefore, this study presents a modified equation of infinite slope stability analysis based on the concept of the saturation depth ratio to analyze the slope stability change associated with the rainfall on a slope. A rainfall infiltration test in unsaturated soil was performed using a column to develop an understanding of the effect of the saturation depth ratio following rainfall infiltration. The results indicated that the rainfall infiltration velocity due to the increase in rainfall in the soil layer was faster when the rainfall intensity increased. In addition, the rainfall infiltration velocity tends to decrease with increases in the unit weight of soil. The proposed model was applied to assess its feasibility and to develop a regional landslide susceptibility map using a geographic information system (GIS). For that purpose, spatial databases for input parameters were constructed and landslide locations were obtained. In order to validate the proposed approach, the results of the proposed approach were compared with the landslide inventory using a ROC (receiver operating characteristics) graph. In addition, the results of the proposed approach were compared with the previous approach used: a steady-state hydrological model. Consequently, the approach proposed in this study displayed satisfactory performance in classifying landslide susceptibility and showed better performance than the steady-state approach.

Beschreibung: Regional trends and controlling factors of fatal landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1821-1833, 2015 Author(s): S. A. Sepúlveda and D. N. Petley A new data set of landslides that caused loss of life in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 10-year period from 2004 and 2013 inclusive has been compiled, providing new insight into the impact of landslides in this key part of the world. This data set indicates that in the 10-year period a total of 11 631 people lost their lives across the region in 611 landslides. The geographical distribution of the landslides is highly heterogeneous, with areas of high incidence in parts of the Caribbean (most notably Haiti), Central America, Colombia, and southeast Brazil. There is significant interannual variation in the number of landslides, with the El Niño/La Niña cycle emerging as a key control. Our analysis suggests that on a continental scale the mapped factors that best explain the observed distribution are topography, annual precipitation and population density. On a national basis we have compared the occurrence of fatality-inducing landslide occurrence with the production of locally authored research articles, demonstrating that there is a landslide research deficit in Latin America and the Caribbean. Understanding better the mechanisms, distribution causes and triggers of landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean must be an essential first step towards managing the hazard.

Beschreibung: A numerical study of the early stages of a tropical cyclogenesis in relation to the MJO Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4919-4935, 2015 Author(s): J. Guerbette, M. Plu, C. Barthe, and J.-F. Mahfouf The role of an active phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the evolution of a mesoscale convective systems (MCS) leading to a tropical depression is investigated in the South-West Indian Ocean during the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field experiment, with a numerical limited-area atmospheric model. A mesoscale vortex is followed in the low-troposphere from the initiation of the active MJO phase. It is shown that the interaction of the vortex with the Equatorial jet associated with the MJO plays an important role on the vortex development. As the vortex encounters the southern part of the low-level jet, it undergoes intensification that is explained by the barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the low-level jet to the vortex.

Beschreibung: Retrieving the paleoclimatic signal from the deeper part of the EPICA Dome C ice core The Cryosphere, 9, 1633-1648, 2015 Author(s): J.-L. Tison, M. de Angelis, G. Littot, E. Wolff, H. Fischer, M. Hansson, M. Bigler, R. Udisti, A. Wegner, J. Jouzel, B. Stenni, S. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Landais, V. Lipenkov, L. Loulergue, J.-M. Barnola, J.-R. Petit, B. Delmonte, G. Dreyfus, D. Dahl-Jensen, G. Durand, B. Bereiter, A. Schilt, R. Spahni, K. Pol, R. Lorrain, R. Souchez, and D. Samyn An important share of paleoclimatic information is buried within the lowermost layers of deep ice cores. Because improving our records further back in time is one of the main challenges in the near future, it is essential to judge how deep these records remain unaltered, since the proximity of the bedrock is likely to interfere both with the recorded temporal sequence and the ice properties. In this paper, we present a multiparametric study (δD-δ 18 O ice , δ 18 O atm , total air content, CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, dust, high-resolution chemistry, ice texture) of the bottom 60 m of the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C ice core from central Antarctica. These bottom layers were subdivided into two distinct facies: the lower 12 m showing visible solid inclusions (basal dispersed ice facies) and the upper 48 m, which we will refer to as the "basal clean ice facies". Some of the data are consistent with a pristine paleoclimatic signal, others show clear anomalies. It is demonstrated that neither large-scale bottom refreezing of subglacial water, nor mixing (be it internal or with a local basal end term from a previous/initial ice sheet configuration) can explain the observed bottom-ice properties. We focus on the high-resolution chemical profiles and on the available remote sensing data on the subglacial topography of the site to propose a mechanism by which relative stretching of the bottom-ice sheet layers is made possible, due to the progressively confining effect of subglacial valley sides. This stress field change, combined with bottom-ice temperature close to the pressure melting point, induces accelerated migration recrystallization, which results in spatial chemical sorting of the impurities, depending on their state (dissolved vs. solid) and if they are involved or not in salt formation. This chemical sorting effect is responsible for the progressive build-up of the visible solid aggregates that therefore mainly originate "from within", and not from incorporation processes of debris from the ice sheet's substrate. We further discuss how the proposed mechanism is compatible with the other ice properties described. We conclude that the paleoclimatic signal is only marginally affected in terms of global ice properties at the bottom of EPICA Dome C, but that the timescale was considerably distorted by mechanical stretching of MIS20 due to the increasing influence of the subglacial topography, a process that might have started well above the bottom ice. A clear paleoclimatic signal can therefore not be inferred from the deeper part of the EPICA Dome C ice core. Our work suggests that the existence of a flat monotonic ice–bedrock interface, extending for several times the ice thickness, would be a crucial factor in choosing a future "oldest ice" drilling location in Antarctica.

Beschreibung: The wide field of view (WFV) is an optical imaging sensor on-board the Gao Fen 1 (GF-1). The WFV lacks an on-board calibrator, so on-orbit radiometric calibration is required. Zhong et al. proposed a method for cross-calibrating the charge-coupled device on-board the Chinese Huan Jing 1 (HJ-1/CCD) that can be applied to the GF-1/WFV. However, the accuracy is limited because of the wider radiometric dynamic range and the higher spatial resolution of the GF-1/WFV. Therefore, Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery with a radiometric resolution similar to that of the GF-1/WFV and DEM extracted from ZY-3 three-line array panchromatic camera (TLC) with a higher spatial resolution were used. A calibration site with uniform surface material and a natural topographic variation was selected, and a model of this site’s bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) was developed. The model has excellent agreement with the real situation, as shown by the comparison of the simulations to the actual OLI surface reflectance. Then, the model was used to calibrate the WFV. Compared with the TOA reflectance from synchronized Landsat-8/OLI images, all errors calculated with the calibration coefficients retrieved in this paper are less than 5%, much less than the errors calculated with the calibration coefficients given by the China Centre for Resource Satellite Data and Application (CRESDA).

Beschreibung: Impact of debris cover on glacier ablation and atmosphere–glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram The Cryosphere, 9, 1617-1632, 2015 Author(s): E. Collier, F. Maussion, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. W. Immerzeel, and A. B. G. Bush The Karakoram range of the Hindu-Kush Himalaya is characterized by both extensive glaciation and a widespread prevalence of surficial debris cover on the glaciers. Surface debris exerts a strong control on glacier surface-energy and mass fluxes and, by modifying surface boundary conditions, has the potential to alter atmosphere–glacier feedbacks. To date, the influence of debris on Karakoram glaciers has only been directly assessed by a small number of glaciological measurements over short periods. Here, we include supraglacial debris in a high-resolution, interactively coupled atmosphere–glacier modeling system. To investigate glaciological and meteorological changes that arise due to the presence of debris, we perform two simulations using the coupled model from 1 May to 1 October 2004: one that treats all glacier surfaces as debris-free and one that introduces a simplified specification for the debris thickness. The basin-averaged impact of debris is a reduction in ablation of ~ 14 %, although the difference exceeds 5 m w.e. on the lowest-altitude glacier tongues. The relatively modest reduction in basin-mean mass loss results in part from non-negligible sub-debris melt rates under thicker covers and from compensating increases in melt under thinner debris, and may help to explain the lack of distinct differences in recent elevation changes between clean and debris-covered ice. The presence of debris also strongly alters the surface boundary condition and thus heat exchanges with the atmosphere; near-surface meteorological fields at lower elevations and their vertical gradients; and the atmospheric boundary layer development. These findings are relevant for glacio-hydrological studies on debris-covered glaciers and contribute towards an improved understanding of glacier behavior in the Karakoram.

Beschreibung: Drought assessment in the Dongliao River basin: traditional approaches vs. generalized drought assessment index based on water resources systems Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1889-1906, 2015 Author(s): B. S. Weng, D. H. Yan, H. Wang, J. H. Liu, Z. Y. Yang, T. L. Qin, and J. Yin Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960–2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

Beschreibung: The electrical self-potential method is a non-intrusive snow-hydrological sensor The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4437-4457, 2015 Author(s): S. S. Thompson, B. Kulessa, R. L. H. Essery, and M. P. Lüthi Our ability to measure, quantify and assimilate hydrological properties and processes of snow in operational models is disproportionally poor compared to the significance of seasonal snowmelt as a global water resource and major risk factor in flood and avalanche forecasting. Encouraged by recent theoretical, modelling and laboratory work, we show here that the diurnal evolution of aerially-distributed self-potential magnitudes closely track those of bulk meltwater fluxes in melting in-situ snowpacks at Rhone and Jungfraujoch glaciers, Switzerland. Numerical modelling infers temporally-evolving liquid water contents in the snowpacks on successive days in close agreement with snow-pit measurements. Muting previous concerns, the governing physical and chemical properties of snow and meltwater became temporally invariant for modelling purposes. Because measurement procedure is straightforward and readily automated for continuous monitoring over significant spatial scales, we conclude that the self-potential geophysical method is a highly-promising non-intrusive snow-hydrological sensor for measurement practice, modelling and operational snow forecasting.

Beschreibung: A rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment: considering multiple flood sources Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 8005-8033, 2015 Author(s): X. Jiang and H. Tatano Information about the spatial distribution of flood risk is important for integrated urban flood risk management. Focusing on urban areas, spatial flood risk assessment must reflect all risk information derived from multiple flood sources: rivers, drainage, coastal flooding etc. that may affect the area. However, conventional flood risk assessment deals with each flood source independently, which leads to an underestimation of flood risk in the floodplain. Even in floodplains that have no risk from coastal flooding, flooding from river channels and inundation caused by insufficient drainage capacity should be considered simultaneously. For integrated flood risk management, it is necessary to establish a methodology to estimate flood risk distribution across a floodplain. In this paper, a rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment, which considers the joint effects of multiple flood sources, is proposed. The concept of critical rainfall duration determined by the concentration time of flooding is introduced to connect response characteristics of different flood sources with rainfall. A copula method is then adopted to capture the correlation of rainfall amount with different critical rainfall durations. Rainfall events are designed taking advantage of the copula structure of correlation and marginal distribution of rainfall amounts within different critical rainfall durations. A case study in the Otsu River Basin, Osaka prefecture, Japan was conducted to demonstrate this methodology.

Beschreibung: Taking photographs with a commercially available digital camera is an efficient and objective method for determining the green fractional vegetation cover (FVC) for field validation of satellite products. However, classifying leaves under shadows in processing digital images remains challenging and results in classification errors. To address this problem, an automatic shadow-resistant algorithm in the Commission Internationale d’Eclairage L*a*b* color space (SHAR-LABFVC) based on a documented FVC estimation algorithm (LABFVC) is proposed in this paper. The hue saturation intensity (HSI) is introduced in SHAR-LABFVC to enhance the brightness of shaded parts of the image. The lognormal distribution is used to fit the frequency of vegetation greenness and to classify vegetation and the background. Real and synthesized images are used for evaluation, and the results are in good agreement with the visual interpretation, particularly when the FVC is high and the shadows are deep, indicating that SHAR-LABFVC is shadow resistant. Without specific improvements to reduce the shadow effect, the underestimation of FVC can be up to 0.2 in the flourishing period of vegetation at a scale of 10 m. Therefore, the proposed algorithm is expected to improve the validation accuracy of remote sensing products.

Beschreibung: Due to their image-based nature, “contextual” approaches are very attractive to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) from remotely-sensed land surface temperature (LST) data. Their application is however limited to highly heterogeneous areas where the soil and vegetation temperature endmembers (Tends) can be observed at the thermal sensor resolution. This paper aims to develop a simple theoretical approach to estimate Tends independently from LST images. Soil Tends are simulated by a soil energy balance model forced by meteorological data. Vegetation Tends are obtained from soil Tends and air temperature. Model-derived soil Tends are first evaluated with in situ measurements made over an irrigated area in Morocco. The root mean square difference (RMSD) between modeled and ground-based soil Tends is estimated as 2.4 ºC. Model-derived soil Tends are next compared with the soil Tends retrieved from 90-m resolution ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) data collected over two irrigated areas in Mexico and Spain. Such a comparison reveals a strong consistency between model-derived and high-resolution image-based soil Tends. A recent contextual ET model (SEB-1S) is then applied to 90-m resolution and to 1-km resolution (aggregated) ASTER data using the model-derived or image-based Tends as the input. The RMSD between 90-m resolution SEB-1S and in situ ET is estimated as 65 and 82 W-m2, and the RMSD between 1-km resolution SEB-1S and aggregated SEB-1S ET is estimated as 78 and 56 W-m2 for the image-based and model-derived Tends, respectively. In light of the above results, Tends should be estimated a priori when contextual models are applied to low resolution images. Moreover, the consistency over highly heterogeneous areas between model-derived and high-resolution image-based Ten

Beschreibung: Tilt error in cryospheric surface radiation measurements at high latitudes: a model study The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4355-4376, 2015 Author(s): W. S. Bogren, J. F. Burkhart, and A. Kylling We have evaluated the magnitude and makeup of error in cryospheric radiation observations due to small sensor misalignment in in-situ measurements of solar irradiance. This error is examined through simulation of diffuse and direct irradiance arriving at a detector with a cosine-response foreoptic. Emphasis is placed on assessing total error over the solar shortwave spectrum from 250 to 4500 nm, as well as supporting investigation over other relevant shortwave spectral ranges. The total measurement error introduced by sensor tilt is dominated by the direct component. For a typical high latitude albedo measurement with a solar zenith angle of 60°, a sensor tilted by 1, 3, and 5° can respectively introduce up to 2.6, 7.7, and 12.8 % error into the measured irradiance and similar errors in the derived albedo. Depending on the daily range of solar azimuth and zenith angles, significant measurement error can persist also in integrated daily irradiance and albedo.

Beschreibung: Hydroelastic analysis of ice shelves under long wave excitation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1851-1857, 2015 Author(s): T. K. Papathanasiou, A. E. Karperaki, E. E. Theotokoglou, and K. A. Belibassakis The transient hydroelastic response of an ice shelf under long wave excitation is analysed by means of the finite element method. The simple model, presented in this work, is used for the simulation of the generated kinematic and stress fields in an ice shelf, when the latter interacts with a tsunami wave. The ice shelf, being of large length compared to its thickness, is modelled as an elastic Euler-Bernoulli beam, constrained at the grounding line. The hydrodynamic field is represented by the linearised shallow water equations. The numerical solution is based on the development of a special hydroelastic finite element for the system of governing of equations. Motivated by the 2011 Sulzberger Ice Shelf (SIS) calving event and its correlation with the Honshu Tsunami, the SIS stable configuration is studied. The extreme values of the bending moment distribution in both space and time are examined. Finally, the location of these extrema is investigated for different values of ice shelf thickness and tsunami wave length.

Beschreibung: Pre-earthquake magnetic pulses Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1873-1880, 2015 Author(s): J. Scoville, J. Heraud, and F. Freund A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are suspected to be generated deep in the Earth's crust, in and around the hypocentral volume, days or even weeks before earthquakes. Their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through kilometers of rock. Interestingly, when the sources of these pulses are triangulated, the locations coincide with the epicenters of future earthquakes. We couple a drift-diffusion semiconductor model to a magnetic field in order to describe the electromagnetic effects associated with electrical currents flowing within rocks. The resulting system of equations is solved numerically and it is seen that a volume of rock may act as a diode that produces transient currents when it switches bias. These unidirectional currents are expected to produce transient unipolar magnetic pulses similar in form, amplitude, and duration to those observed before earthquakes, and this suggests that the pulses could be the result of geophysical semiconductor processes.

Beschreibung: The Earth’s surface net radiation controls the energy and water exchanges between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere, and can be derived from satellite observations. The ability to monitor the net surface radiation over large areas at high spatial and temporal resolution is essential for many applications, such as weather forecasting, short-term climate prediction or water resources management. The objective of this paper is to derive the net surface radiation in the shortwave domain at high temporal (half-hourly) and spatial resolution (~1 km) using visible imagery from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). The retrieval algorithm represents an adaptation to GOES data of a standard algorithm initially developed for the NASA-operated Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanner. The methodology relies on: (1) the estimation of top of atmosphere shortwave radiation from GOES spectral measurements; and (2) the calculation of net surface shortwave (SW) radiation accounting for atmospheric effects. Comparison of GOES-retrieved net surface shortwave radiation with ground-measurements at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) stations yields very good agreement with average bias lower than 5 W·m−2 and root mean square difference around 70 W·m−2. The algorithm performance is usually higher over areas characterized by low spatial variability in term of land cover type and surface biophysical properties. The technique does not involve retrieval and assessment of cloud properties and can be easily adapted to other meteorological satellites around the globe.

Beschreibung: The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission was initiated in 2009 with the goal of acquiring global soil moisture data over land using multi-angular L-band radiometric measurements. Specifically, surface soil moisture was estimated using the L-band Microwave Emission of the Biosphere (L-MEB) radiative transfer model. This study evaluated the applicability of this model to the Heihe River Basin in Northern China for specific underlying surfaces by simulating brightness temperature (BT) with the L-MEB model. To analyze the influence of a ground sampling strategy on the simulations, two resampling methods based on ground observations were compared. In the first method, the simulated BT of each point observation was initially acquired. The simulations were then resampled at a 1 km resolution. The other method was based on gridded data with a resolution of 1 km averaged from point observations, such as soil moisture, soil temperature, and soil texture. The simulated BTs at a 1 km resolution were then obtained using the L-MEB model. Because of the large variability in soil moisture, the resampling method based on gridded data was used in the simulation. The simulated BTs based on the calibrated parameters were validated using airborne L-band data from the Polarimetric L-band Multibeam Radiometer (PLMR) acquired during the HiWATER project. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) between the simulated results and the PLMR data were 6 to 7 K for V-polarization and 3 to 5 K for H-polarization at different angles. These results demonstrate that the model effectively represents agricultural land surfaces, and this study will serve as a reference for applying the L-MEB model in arid regions and for selecting a ground sampling strategy.

Beschreibung: Halogen-based reconstruction of Russian Arctic sea ice area from the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya) The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4407-4436, 2015 Author(s): A. Spolaor, T. Opel, J. R. McConnell, O. J. Maselli, G. Spreen, C. Varin, T. Kirchgeorg, D. Fritzsche, and P. Vallelonga The role of sea ice in the Earth climate system is still under debate, although it is known to influence albedo, ocean circulation, and atmosphere-ocean heat and gas exchange. Here we present a reconstruction of AD 1950 to 1998 sea ice in the Laptev Sea based on the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic). The halogens bromine (Br) and iodine (I) are strongly influenced by sea ice processes. Bromine reacts with the sea ice surface in auto-catalyzing "Bromine explosion" events causing an enrichment of the Br / Na ratio and the bromine excess (Br exc ) in snow compared to that in seawater. Iodine is emitted from algal communities growing under sea ice. The results suggest a connection between Br exc and spring sea ice area, as well as a connection between iodine concentration and summer sea ice area. These two halogens are therefore good candidates for extended reconstructions of past sea ice changes in the Arctic.

Beschreibung: Due to an oversight by the authors there is a correction necessary in this publication [1]. We would like to change the word “phase” to “step” throughout the manuscript. We apologize for any inconvenience caused to readers.[...]

Beschreibung: Spartina alterniflora is one of the most hazardous invasive plant species in China. Monitoring the changes in dominant plant species can help identify the invasion mechanisms of S. alterniflora, thereby providing scientific guidelines on managing or controlling the spreading of this invasive species at Jiuduansha Wetland in Shanghai, China. However, because of the complex terrain and the inaccessibility of tidal wetlands, it is very difficult to conduct field experiments on a large scale in this wetland. Hence, remote sensing plays an important role in monitoring the dynamics of plant species and its distribution on both spatial and temporal scales. In this study, based on multi-spectral and high resolution (〈10 m) remote sensing images and field observational data, we analyzed spectral characteristics of four dominant plant species at different green-up phenophases. Based on the difference in spectral characteristics, a decision tree classification was built for identifying the distribution of these plant species. The results indicated that the overall classification accuracy for plant species was 87.17%, and the Kappa Coefficient was 0.81, implying that our classification method could effectively identify the four plant species. We found that the area of Phragmites australi showed an increasing trend from 1997 to 2004 and from 2004 to 2012, with an annual spreading rate of 33.77% and 31.92%, respectively. The area of Scirpus mariqueter displayed an increasing trend from 1997 to 2004 (12.16% per year) and a decreasing trend from 2004 to 2012 (−7.05% per year). S. alterniflora has the biggest area (3302.20 ha) as compared to other species, accounting for 51% of total vegetated area at the study region in 2012. It showed an increasing trend from 1997 to 2004 and from 2004 to 2012, with an annual spreading rate of 130.63% and 28.11%, respectively. As a result, the native species P. australi was surrounded and the habitats of S. mariqueter were occupied by S. alterniflora. The high proliferation ability and competitive advantage for S. alterniflora inhibited the growth of other plant species and we anticipate a continuous expansion of this invasive species at Jiuduansha Wetland. Effective measures should be taken to control the invasion of S. alterniflora.

Beschreibung: The accuracy of different workflows using Structure-from-Motion and Multi-View-Stereo techniques (SfM-MVS) is tested. Twelve point clouds of the Corral del Veleta rock glacier, in Spain, were produced with two different software packages (123D Catch and Agisoft Photoscan), using Low Dynamic Range images and High Dynamic Range compositions (HDR) for three different years (2011, 2012 and 2014). The accuracy of the resulting point clouds was assessed using benchmark models acquired every year with a Terrestrial Laser Scanner. Three parameters were used to estimate the accuracy of each point cloud: the RMSE, the Cloud-to-Cloud distance (C2C) and the Multiscale-Model-to-Model comparison (M3C2). The M3C2 mean error ranged from 0.084 m (standard deviation of 0.403 m) to 1.451 m (standard deviation of 1.625 m). Agisoft Photoscan overcome 123D Catch, producing more accurate and denser point clouds in 11 out 12 cases, being this work, the first available comparison between both software packages in the literature. No significant improvement was observed using HDR pre-processing. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the geometrical accuracy of 3D models obtained using LDR and HDR compositions are compared. These findings may be of interest for researchers who wish to estimate geomorphic changes using SfM-MVS approaches.

Beschreibung: This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation growth and the influence of climatic drivers from 1982 to 2011 across China using datasets from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic drivers. Long term trends, significance and abrupt change points of interannual NDVI time series were analyzed. We applied both simple regression and multi-regression models to quantify the effects of climatic drivers on vegetation growth and compare their relative contributions. Results show that on average, the growing season NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007 year

Beschreibung: The 9 September 2010 torrential rain and flash flood in the Dragone catchment, Atrani, Amalfi Coast (Southern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4715-4751, 2015 Author(s): C. Violante, G. Braca, E. Esposito, and G. Tranfaglia In this paper we use a multi-hazard approach to analyse the 9 September 2010 flash-flood occurred in the Dragone basin, a 9 km 2 catchment located along the Amalfi rocky coastal range, Southern Italy. In this area, alluvial-fan-flooding is the most frequent and destructive geologic hazards since Roman time. Sudden torrent of waters (flash flood) are caused by high-intensity and very localized cloudbursts of short duration inducing slope erosion and sediment delivery from slope-to-stream. The elevated bed load transport produces fast-moving hyperconcentrated flows with significant catastrophic implications for communities living at stream mouth. The 9 September 2010 rainstorm event lasted 1 h with an intensity rainfall peak nearly to 120 mm h −1 . High topographic relief of the Amalfi coastal range and positive anomalies of the coastal waters conditioned the character of the convective system. Based on geological data and post-event field evidence and surveys, as well as homemade-videos, and eyewitness accounts the consequent flash-flood mobilized some 25 000 m 3 of materials with a total (water and sediment) peak flow of 80 m 3 s −1 . The estimated peak discharge of only clear water was about 65 m 3 s −1 . This leads to a sediment bulking factor of 1.2 that corresponds to a flow with velocities similar to those of water during a flood.

Beschreibung: The upcoming satellite mission EnMAP offers the opportunity to retrieve information on the seasonal development of vegetation parameters on a regional scale based on hyperspectral data. This study aims to investigate whether an analysis method for the retrieval of leaf area index (LAI), developed and validated on the 4 m resolution scale of six airborne datasets covering the 2012 growing period, is transferable to the spaceborne 30 m resolution scale of the future EnMAP mission. The widely used PROSAIL model is applied to generate look-up-table (LUT) libraries, by which the model is inverted to derive LAI information. With the goal of defining the impact of different selection criteria in the inversion process, different techniques for the LUT based inversion are tested, such as several cost functions, type and amount of artificial noise, number of considered solutions and type of averaging method. The optimal inversion procedure (Laplace, median, 4% inverse multiplicative noise, 350 out of 100,000 averages) is identified by validating the results against corresponding in-situ measurements (n = 330) of LAI. Finally, the best performing LUT inversion (R2 = 0.65, RMSE = 0.64) is adapted to simulated EnMAP data, generated from the airborne acquisitions. The comparison of the retrieval results to upscaled maps of LAI, previously validated on the 4 m scale, shows that the optimized retrieval method can successfully be transferred to spaceborne EnMAP data.

Beschreibung: Technical Note: Testing an improved index for analysing storm nutrient hysteresis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7875-7892, 2015 Author(s): C. E. M. Lloyd, J. E. Freer, P. J. Johnes, and A. L. Collins Analysis of hydrochemical behaviour in extreme flow events can provide new insights into the process controls on nutrient transport in catchments. The examination of storm behaviours using hysteresis analysis has increased in recent years, partly due to the increased availability of high temporal resolution datasets for discharge and nutrient parameters. A number of these analyses involve the use of an index to describe the characteristics of a hysteresis loop in order to compare different storm behaviours both within and between catchments. This technical note reviews the methods for calculation of the hysteresis index (HI) and explores a new more effective methodology. Each method is systematically tested and the impact of the chosen calculation on the results is examined. Recommendations are made regarding the most effective method of calculating a HI which can be used for comparing data between storms and between different parameters and catchments.

Beschreibung: Mediterranean cyclone characteristics related to precipitation occurrence in Crete, Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1807-1819, 2015 Author(s): V. Iordanidou, A. G. Koutroulis, and I. K. Tsanis The characteristics of the cyclone tracks that caused precipitation events of variable intensity for the period 1979–2011 over the island of Crete are presented. The data set used for cyclone identification is the 0.5° × 0.5°, 30 years European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim mean sea-level pressure. Cyclone characteristics are calculated with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS scheme). Daily precipitation data from a dense gauging network over the island of Crete are also used for the classification of the precipitation events in terms of rain accumulation (intensity). Daily precipitation is classified in three categories and the associated cyclones are chosen according to their distance from Crete island. The seasonal and annual cycle of the physical characteristics of the cyclone tracks are investigated with respect to the cyclones' relative position to the island of Crete. It was found that cyclones affecting Crete most frequently approach from the western side of the island and the actual cyclone centers associated with precipitation events are usually located northwest and southeast of the Crete domain. Cyclone-induced rainfall increases in function to cyclones' depth, radius and propagation velocity increase as well as cyclones' pressure decrease. Spring cyclones that affect Crete with rainfall present lower pressures and higher cyclone propagation velocity in contrast to the ones associated with winter and autumn precipitation events. The examination of the relation between cyclone characteristics and precipitation occurrence provides valuable information related to forecasting potential and management of the water resources and the rainfall extremes.

Beschreibung: Soil storage influences climate–evapotranspiration interactions in three western United States catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7893-7931, 2015 Author(s): E. S. Garcia and C. L. Tague In the winter-wet, summer-dry forests of the western United States, total annual evapotranspiration (ET) varies with precipitation and temperature. Geologically mediated drainage and storage properties, however, may strongly influence these relationships between climate and ET. We use a physically based process model to evaluate how soil available water capacity (AWC) and rates of drainage influence model estimates of ET-climate relationships for three snow-dominated, mountainous catchments with differing precipitation regimes. Model estimates show that total annual precipitation is a primary control on inter-annual variation in ET across all catchments and that the timing of recharge is a second order control. Low soil AWC, however, increases the sensitivity of annual ET to these climate drivers by three to five times in our two study basins with drier summers. ET–climate relationships in our Colorado basin receiving summer precipitation are more stable across subsurface drainage and storage characteristics. Climate driver-ET relationships are most sensitive to soil AWC and soil drainage parameters related to lateral redistribution in the relatively dry Sierra site that receives little summer precipitation. Our results demonstrate that uncertainty in geophysically mediated storage and drainage properties can strongly influence model estimates of watershed scale ET responses to climate variation and climate change. This sensitivity to uncertainty in geophysical properties is particularly true for sites receiving little summer precipitation. A parallel interpretation of this parameter sensitivity is that spatial variation in soil properties are likely to lead to substantial within-watershed plot scale differences in forest water use and drought stress.

Beschreibung: Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1711-1720, 2015 Author(s): Y. Krien, B. Dudon, J. Roger, and N. Zahibo Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC–SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40–60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Beschreibung: Teaching disaster preparedness via a mobile device: a study of Auckland Civil Defence's Smartphone Application Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4555-4583, 2015 Author(s): O. Kulemeka This content analysis study examined whether a disaster preparedness education smartphone application created by a New Zealand city matches what experts say are effective ways of teaching disaster preparedness and teaching via an app. The app was assessed to ascertain if it excelled as a platform for learning, communicated effectively, addressed factors that can hinder people from preparing, and provided information for special needs populations. Results show that the app addressed most factors that hinder preparedness, provided information for some special needs populations, excelled as a platform for learning, and communicated effectively. The app's weaknesses include the fact that it lacked targeted information for low-income residents. The findings provide insight on how organizations can effectively use apps to teach disaster preparedness. The author passed away before the publication of this discussion paper. Therefore, a final revised paper is not foreseen.

Beschreibung: Forest inventories based on field sample surveys, supported by auxiliary remotely sensed data, have the potential to provide transparent and confident estimates of forest carbon stocks required in climate change mitigation schemes such as the REDD+ mechanism. The field plot size is of importance for the precision of carbon stock estimates, and better information of the relationship between plot size and precision can be useful in designing future inventories. Precision estimates of forest biomass estimates developed from 30 concentric field plots with sizes of 700, 900, …, 1900 m2, sampled in a Tanzanian rainforest, were assessed in a model-based inference framework. Remotely sensed data from airborne laser scanning (ALS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radio detection and ranging (InSAR) were used as auxiliary information. The findings indicate that larger field plots are relatively more efficient for inventories supported by remotely sensed ALS and InSAR data. A simulation showed that a pure field-based inventory would have to comprise 3.5–6.0 times as many observations for plot sizes of 700–1900 m2 to achieve the same precision as an inventory supported by ALS data.

Beschreibung: The Global Network of Isotopes in Rivers (GNIR): integration of water isotopes in watershed observation and riverine research Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3419-3431, 2015 Author(s): J. Halder, S. Terzer, L. I. Wassenaar, L. J. Araguás-Araguás, and P. K. Aggarwal We introduce a new online global database of riverine water stable isotopes (Global Network of Isotopes in Rivers, GNIR) and evaluate its longer-term data holdings. Overall, 218 GNIR river stations were clustered into three different groups based on the seasonal variation in their isotopic composition, which was closely coupled to precipitation and snowmelt water runoff regimes. Sinusoidal fit functions revealed phases within each grouping and deviations from the sinusoidal functions revealed important river alterations or hydrological processes in these watersheds. The seasonal isotopic amplitude of δ 18 O in rivers averaged 2.5 ‰, and did not increase as a function of latitude, like it does for global precipitation. Low seasonal isotopic amplitudes in rivers suggest the prevalence of mixing and storage such as occurs via lakes, reservoirs, and groundwater. The application of a catchment-constrained regionalized cluster-based water isotope prediction model (CC-RCWIP) allowed for direct comparison between the expected isotopic compositions for the upstream catchment precipitation with the measured isotopic composition of river discharge at observation stations. The catchment-constrained model revealed a strong global isotopic correlation between average rainfall and river discharge ( R 2 = 0.88) and the study demonstrated that the seasonal isotopic composition and variation of river water can be predicted. Deviations in data from model-predicted values suggest there are important natural or anthropogenic catchment processes like evaporation, damming, and water storage in the upstream catchment.

Beschreibung: Sub-daily runoff simulations with parameters inferred at the daily time scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7437-7467, 2015 Author(s): J. E. Reynolds, S. Halldin, C. Y. Xu, J. Seibert, and A. Kauffeldt Concentration times in small and medium-sized watersheds (~ 100–1000 km 2 ) are commonly less than 24 h. Flood-forecasting models then require data at sub-daily time scales, but time-series of input and runoff data with sufficient lengths are often only available at the daily time scale, especially in developing countries. This has led to a search for time-scale relationships to infer parameter values at the time scales where they are needed from the time scales where they are available. In this study, time-scale dependencies in the HBV-light conceptual hydrological model were assessed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. It was hypothesised that the existence of such dependencies is a result of the numerical method or time-stepping scheme used in the models rather than a real time-scale-data dependence. Parameter values inferred showed a clear dependence on time scale when the explicit Euler method was used for modelling at the same time steps as the time scale of the input data (1–24 h). However, the dependence almost fully disappeared when the explicit Euler method was used for modelling in 1 h time steps internally irrespectively of the time scale of the input data. In other words, it was found that when an adequate time-stepping scheme was implemented, parameter sets inferred at one time scale (e.g., daily) could be used directly for runoff simulations at other time scales (e.g., 3 or 6 h) without any time scaling and this approach only resulted in a small (if any) model performance decrease, in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe and volume-error efficiencies. The overall results of this study indicated that as soon as sub-daily driving data can be secured, flood forecasting in watersheds with sub-daily concentration times is possible with model-parameter values inferred from long time series of daily data, as long as an appropriate numerical method is used.

Beschreibung: Inversion kinematics at deep-seated gravity slope deformations: a paleoseismological perspective Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4585-4617, 2015 Author(s): F. Pasquarè Mariotto and A. Tibaldi We compare data from three deep-seated gravity slope deformations (DSGSDs) where paleoseismological techniques were applied in artificial trenches. At all trenches, located in metamorphic rocks of the Italian Alps, there is evidence of extensional deformation given by normal movements along slip planes dipping downhill or uphill, and/or fissures, as expected in gravitational failure. However, we document and illustrate – with the aid of trenching – the evidence of reverse movements. The reverse slips occurred mostly along the same planes along which normal slip occurred, and produced drag folds in unconsolidated Holocene sediments as well as the superimposition of substrate rocks on Holocene sediments. Since trenches are located in different positions with respect to the slope affected by the DSGSD, it is possible to suggest that reverse slip might occur both at the toe portions of DSGSDs and in their central-upper portions. When the age relationships between the two deformation kinematics can be sorted out, they clearly indicate that reverse slips postdate normal ones. Our data suggest that during the development of long-lived DSGSDs, inversion kinematics may occur in different sectors of the unstable rock mass. The inversion is interpreted as either due to locking of the frontal blocks of a DSGSD, or the relative decrease in the rate of downward movement in the frontal blocks with respect to the rear blocks.

Beschreibung: This paper presents a rapid multi-return ALS-based (Airborne Laser Scanning) tree trunk detection approach. The multi-core Divide & Conquer algorithm uses a CBH (Crown Base Height) estimation and 3D-clustering approach to isolate points associated with single trunks. For each trunk, a principal-component-based linear model is fitted, while a deterministic modification of LO-RANSAC is used to identify an optimal model. The algorithm returns a vector-based model for each identified trunk while parameters like the ground position, zenith orientation, azimuth orientation and length of the trunk are provided. The algorithm performed well for a study area of 109 trees (about 2/3 Norway Spruce and 1/3 European Beech), with a point density of 7.6 points per m2, while a detection rate of about 75% and an overall accuracy of 84% were reached. Compared to crown-based tree detection methods, the aTrunk approach has the advantages of a high reliability (5% commission error) and its high tree positioning accuracy (0:59m average difference and 0:78m RMSE). The usage of overlapping segments with parametrizable size allows a seamless detection of the tree trunks.

Beschreibung: Mapping snow depth from manned aircraft on landscape scales at centimeter resolution using structure-from-motion photogrammetry The Cryosphere, 9, 1445-1463, 2015 Author(s): M. Nolan, C. Larsen, and M. Sturm Airborne photogrammetry is undergoing a renaissance: lower-cost equipment, more powerful software, and simplified methods have significantly lowered the barriers to entry and now allow repeat mapping of cryospheric dynamics at spatial resolutions and temporal frequencies that were previously too expensive to consider. Here we apply these advancements to the measurement of snow depth from manned aircraft. Our main airborne hardware consists of a consumer-grade digital camera directly coupled to a dual-frequency GPS; no inertial motion unit (IMU) or on-board computer is required, such that system hardware and software costs less than USD 30 000, exclusive of aircraft. The photogrammetric processing is done using a commercially available implementation of the structure from motion (SfM) algorithm. The system is simple enough that it can be operated by the pilot without additional assistance and the technique creates directly georeferenced maps without ground control, further reducing overall costs. To map snow depth, we made digital elevation models (DEMs) during snow-free and snow-covered conditions, then subtracted these to create difference DEMs (dDEMs). We assessed the accuracy (real-world geolocation) and precision (repeatability) of our DEMs through comparisons to ground control points and to time series of our own DEMs. We validated these assessments through comparisons to DEMs made by airborne lidar and by a similar photogrammetric system. We empirically determined that our DEMs have a geolocation accuracy of ±30 cm and a repeatability of ±8 cm (both 95 % confidence). We then validated our dDEMs against more than 6000 hand-probed snow depth measurements at 3 separate test areas in Alaska covering a wide-variety of terrain and snow types. These areas ranged from 5 to 40 km 2 and had ground sample distances of 6 to 20 cm. We found that depths produced from the dDEMs matched probe depths with a 10 cm standard deviation, and were statistically identical at 95 % confidence. Due to the precision of this technique, other real changes on the ground such as frost heave, vegetative compaction by snow, and even footprints become sources of error in the measurement of thin snow packs ( 〈 20 cm). The ability to directly measure such small changes over entire landscapes eliminates the need to extrapolate limited field measurements. The fact that this mapping can be done at substantially lower costs than current methods may transform the way we approach studying change in the cryosphere.

Beschreibung: Analysis of three-dimensional groundwater flow toward a radial collector well in a finite-extent unconfined aquifer Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7503-7540, 2015 Author(s): C.-S. Huang, J.-J. Chen, and H.-D. Yeh This study develops a three-dimensional mathematical model for describing transient hydraulic head distributions due to pumping at a radial collector well (RCW) in a rectangular confined or unconfined aquifer bounded by two parallel streams and no-flow boundaries. The governing equation with a point-sink term is employed. A first-order free surface equation delineating the water table decline induced by the well is considered. The head solution for the point sink is derived by applying the methods of double-integral transform and Laplace transform. The head solution for a RCW is obtained by integrating the point-sink solution along the laterals of the RCW and then dividing the integration result by the sum of lateral lengths. On the basis of Darcy's law and head distributions along the streams, the solution for the stream depletion rate (SDR) can also be developed. With the aid of the head and SDR solutions, the sensitivity analysis can then be performed to explore the response of the hydraulic head to the change in a specific parameter such as the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, streambed permeability, specific storage, specific yield, lateral length and well depth. Spatial head distributions subject to the anisotropy of aquifer hydraulic conductivities are analyzed. A quantitative criterion is provided to identify whether groundwater flow at a specific region is 3-D or 2-D without the vertical component. In addition, another criterion is also given to allow the neglect of vertical flow effect on SDR. Conventional 2-D flow models can be used to provide accurate head and SDR predictions if satisfying these two criteria.

Beschreibung: Diagnosing the seasonal land–atmosphere correspondence over northern Australia: dependence on soil moisture state and correspondence strength definition Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3433-3447, 2015 Author(s): M. Decker, A. Pitman, and J. Evans The similarity of the temporal variations of land and atmospheric states during the onset (September) through to the peak (February) of the wet season over northern Australia is statistically diagnosed using ensembles of offline land surface model simulations that produce a range of different background soil moisture states. We derive the temporal correspondence between variations in the soil moisture and the planetary boundary layer via a statistical measure of rank correlation. The simulated evaporative fraction and the boundary layer are shown to be strongly correlated during both SON (September–October–November) and DJF (December–January–February) despite the differing background soil moisture states between the two seasons and among the ensemble members. The sign and magnitude of the boundary layer–surface layer soil moisture association during the onset of the wet season (SON) differs from the correlation between the evaporative fraction and boundary layer from the same season, and from the correlation between the surface soil moisture and boundary layer association during DJF. The patterns and magnitude of the surface flux–boundary layer correspondence are not captured when the relationship is diagnosed using the surface layer soil moisture alone. The conflicting results arise because the surface layer soil moisture lacks strong correlation with the atmosphere during the monsoon onset because the evapotranspiration is dominated by transpiration. Our results indicate that accurately diagnosing the correspondence and therefore coupling strength in seasonally dry regions, such as northern Australia, requires root zone soil moisture to be included.

Beschreibung: Effects of cultivation and reforestation on suspended sediment concentrations: a case study in a mountainous catchment in China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7583-7614, 2015 Author(s): N. F. Fang, F. X. Chen, H. Y. Zhang, Y. X. Wang, and Z. H. Shi Understanding how sediment concentrations vary with land use/cover is critical for evaluating the current and future impacts of human activities on river systems. This paper presents suspended sediment concentration (SSC) dynamics and the relationship between SSC and discharge ( Q ) in the 8973 km 2 Du catchment and its sub-catchment (4635 km 2 ). In the Du catchment and its sub-catchment, 4235 and 3980 paired Q -SSC samples, respectively, were collected over 30 years. Under the influence of the "Household Contract Responsibility System" and Grain-for-Green projects in China, three periods were designated, the original period (1980s), cultivation period (1990s), and reforestation period (2000s). The results of a Mann–Kendall test showed that rainfall slightly increased during the study years; however, the annual discharge and sediment load significantly decreased. The annual suspended sediment yield of the Du catchment varied between 4 and 332 kg s −1 , and that of the sub-catchment varied between 2 and 135 kg s −1 . The SSCs in the catchment and sub-catchment fluctuated between 1 and 22 400 g m −3 and between 1 and 31 800 g m −3 , respectively. The mean SSC of the Du catchment was relatively stable during the three periods (±83 g m −3 ). ANOVA indicated that the SSC did not significantly change under cultivation for low and moderate flows, but was significantly different under high flow during reforestation of the Du catchment. The SSC in the sub-catchment was more variable, and the mean-SSC in the sub-catchment varied from 1058 g m −3 in the 1980s to 1256 g m −3 in the 1990s and 891 g m −3 in the 2000s. Reforestation significantly decreased the SSCs during low and moderate flows, whereas cultivation increased the SSCs during high flow. The sediment rating curves showed a stable relationship between the SSC and Q in the Du catchment during the three periods. However, the SSC- Q of the sub-catchment exhibited scattered relationships during the original and cultivation periods and a more linear relationship during the reforestation period.

Beschreibung: Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past-temperature reconstructions The Cryosphere, 9, 1481-1504, 2015 Author(s): V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White Combined records of snow accumulation rate, δ 18 O and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling), covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterise the isotope–temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal δ 18 O and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature and is enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM δ 18 O shows multidecadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive δ 18 O values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in δ 18 O (warmest), while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest) are depicted at NEEM in 1815–1825 and 1836–1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and δ 18 O records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multidecadal accumulation–temperature and δ 18 O–temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979–2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 ± 2 % °C −1 and the δ 18 O–temperature slope at 1.1 ± 0.2 ‰ °C −1 , about twice as large as previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.

Beschreibung: Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2577-2586, 2015 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, and E. Pappenberger The rainfall in southern Africa has a large inter-annual variability, which can cause rain-fed agriculture to fail. The staple crop maize is especially sensitive to dry spells during the early growing season. An early prediction of the probability of dry spells and below normal precipitation can potentially mitigate damages through water management. This paper investigates how well ECMWF's seasonal forecasts predict dry spells over the Limpopo basin during the rainy season December–February (DJF) with lead times from 0 to 4 months. The seasonal forecasts were evaluated against ERA-Interim reanalysis data, which in turn were corrected with GPCP (EGPCP) to match monthly precipitation totals. The seasonal forecasts were also bias-corrected with the EGPCP using quantile mapping as well as post-processed using a precipitation threshold to define a dry day. The results indicate that the forecasts show skill in predicting dry spells in comparison with a climatological ensemble based on previous years. Quantile mapping in combination with a precipitation threshold improved the skill of the forecast. The skill in prediction of dry spells was largest over the most drought-sensitive region. Seasonal forecasts have the potential to be used in a probabilistic forecast system for drought-sensitive crops, though these should be used with caution given the large uncertainties.

Beschreibung: Managers of forested water supply catchments require efficient and accurate methods to quantify changes in forest water use due to changes in forest structure and density after disturbance. Using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with as few as 0.9 pulses m−2, we applied a local maximum filtering (LMF) method and normalised cut (NCut) algorithm to predict stocking density (SDen) of a 69-year-old Eucalyptus regnans forest comprising 251 plots with resolution of the order of 0.04 ha. Using the NCut method we predicted basal area (BAHa) per hectare and sapwood area (SAHa) per hectare, a well-established proxy for transpiration. Sapwood area was also indirectly estimated with allometric relationships dependent on LiDAR derived SDen and BAHa using a computationally efficient procedure. The individual tree detection (ITD) rates for the LMF and NCut methods respectively had 72% and 68% of stems correctly identified, 25% and 20% of stems missed, and 2% and 12% of stems over-segmented. The significantly higher computational requirement of the NCut algorithm makes the LMF method more suitable for predicting SDen across large forested areas. Using NCut derived ITD segments, observed versus predicted stand BAHa had R2 ranging from 0.70 to 0.98 across six catchments, whereas a generalised parsimonious model applied to all sites used the portion of hits greater than 37 m in height (PH37) to explain 68% of BAHa. For extrapolating one ha resolution SAHa estimates across large forested catchments, we found that directly relating SAHa to NCut derived LiDAR indices (R2 = 0.56) was slightly more accurate but computationally more demanding than indirect estimates of SAHa using allometric relationships consisting of BAHa (R2 = 0.50) or a sapwood perimeter index, defined as (BAHaSDen)½ (R2 = 0.48).

Beschreibung: As the largest natural source of methane, wetlands play an important role in the carbon cycle. High-resolution maps of wetland type and extent are required to quantify wetland responses to climate change. Mapping northern wetlands is particularly important because of a disproportionate increase in temperatures at higher latitudes. Synthetic aperture radar data from a spaceborne platform can be used to map wetland types and dynamics over large areas. Following from earlier work by Whitcomb et al. (2009) using Japanese Earth Resources Satellite (JERS-1) data, we applied the “random forests” classification algorithm to variables from L-band ALOS PALSAR data for 2007, topographic data (e.g., slope, elevation) and locational information (latitude, longitude) to derive a map of vegetated wetlands in Alaska, with a spatial resolution of 50 m. We used the National Wetlands Inventory and National Land Cover Database (for upland areas) to select training and validation data and further validated classification results with an independent dataset that we created. A number of improvements were made to the method of Whitcomb et al. (2009): (1) more consistent training data in upland areas; (2) better distribution of training data across all classes by taking a stratified random sample of all available training pixels; and (3) a more efficient implementation, which allowed classification of the entire state as a single entity (rather than in separate tiles), which eliminated discontinuities at tile boundaries. The overall accuracy for discriminating wetland from upland was 95%, and the accuracy at the level of wetland classes was 85%. The total area of wetlands mapped was 0.59 million km2, or 36% of the total land area of the state of Alaska. The map will be made available to download from NASA’s wetland monitoring website.

Beschreibung: This paper presents a technique to generate cirrus optical depth and particle effective size estimates from the cloud emissivities at 8.5, 11 and 12 μm contained in the Collection-6 (C6) MYD06 cloud product. This technique employs the latest scattering models and scattering radiative transfer approximations to estimate cloud optical depth and particle effective size using efficient analytical formulae. Two scattering models are tested. The first is the same scattering model as that used in the C6 MYD06 solar reflectance products. The second model is an empirical model derived from radiometric consistency. Both models are shown to generate optical depths that compare well to those from constrained CALIPSO retrievals and MYD06. In terms of effective radius retrievals, the results from the radiometric empirical model agree more closely with MYD06 than those from the C6 model. This analysis is applied to AQUA/MODIS data collocated with CALIPSO/CALIOP during January 2010.

Beschreibung: Significant economic losses, large affected populations, and serious environmental damage caused by recurrent natural disaster events (NDE) worldwide indicate insufficiency in emergency preparedness and response. The barrier of full life cycle data preparation and information support is one of the main reasons. This paper adopts the method of integrated environmental modeling, incorporates information from existing event protocols, languages, and models, analyzes observation demands from different event stages, and forms the abstract full life cycle natural disaster event metamodel (FLCNDEM) based on meta-object facility. Then task library and knowledge base for floods are built to instantiate FLCNDEM, forming the FLCNDEM for floods (FLCNDEMF). FLCNDEMF is formalized according to Event Pattern Markup Language, and a prototype system, Natural Disaster Event Manager, is developed to assist in the template-based modeling and management. The flood in Liangzi (LZ) Lake of Hubei, China on 16 July 2010 is adopted to illustrate how to apply FLCNDEM in real scenarios. FLCNDEM-based modeling is realized, and the candidate remote sensing (RS) dataset for different observing missions are provided for LZ Lake flood. Taking the mission of flood area extraction as an example, the appropriate RS data are selected via the model of simplified general perturbation version 4, and the flood area in different phases are calculated and displayed on the map. The phase-based modeling and visualization intuitively display the spatial-temporal distribution and the evolution process of the LZ Lake flood, and it is of great significance for flood responding. In addition, through the extension mechanism, FLCNDEM can also be applied in other environmental applications, providing important support for full life cycle information sharing and rapid responding.

Beschreibung: Greenhouse detection and mapping via remote sensing is a complex task, which has already been addressed in numerous studies. In this research, the innovative goal relies on the identification of greenhouse horticultural crops that were growing under plastic coverings on 30 September 2013. To this end, object-based image analysis (OBIA) and a decision tree classifier (DT) were applied to a set consisting of eight Landsat 8 OLI images collected from May to November 2013. Moreover, a single WorldView-2 satellite image acquired on 30 September 2013, was also used as a data source. In this approach, basic spectral information, textural features and several vegetation indices (VIs) derived from Landsat 8 and WorldView-2 multi-temporal satellite data were computed on previously segmented image objects in order to identify four of the most popular autumn crops cultivated under greenhouse in Almería, Spain (i.e., tomato, pepper, cucumber and aubergine). The best classification accuracy (81.3% overall accuracy) was achieved by using the full set of Landsat 8 time series. These results were considered good in the case of tomato and pepper crops, being significantly worse for cucumber and aubergine. These results were hardly improved by adding the information of the WorldView-2 image. The most important information for correct classification of different crops under greenhouses was related to the greenhouse management practices and not the spectral properties of the crops themselves.

Beschreibung: In environments that are hostile to Global Navigation Satellites Systems (GNSS), the precision achieved by a mobile light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system (MLS) can deteriorate into the sub-meter or even the meter range due to errors in the positioning and orientation system (POS). This paper proposes a novel least squares collocation (LSC)-based method to improve the accuracy of the MLS in these hostile environments. Through a thorough consideration of the characteristics of POS errors, the proposed LSC-based method effectively corrects these errors using LiDAR control points, thereby improving the accuracy of the MLS. This method is also applied to the calibration of misalignment between the laser scanner and the POS. Several datasets from different scenarios have been adopted in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results from experiments indicate that this method would represent a significant improvement in terms of the accuracy of the MLS in environments that are essentially hostile to GNSS and is also effective regarding the calibration of misalignment.

Beschreibung: Search-centric, sample supervised image segmentation has been demonstrated as a viable general approach applicable within the context of remote sensing image analysis. Such an approach casts the controlling parameters of image processing—generating segments—as a multidimensional search problem resolvable via efficient search methods. In this work, this general approach is analyzed in the context of connected component segmentation. A specific formulation of connected component labeling, based on quasi-flat zones, allows for the addition of arbitrary segment attributes to contribute to the nature of the output. This is in addition to core tunable parameters controlling the basic nature of connected components. Additional tunable constituents may also be introduced into such a framework, allowing flexibility in the definition of connected component connectivity, either directly via defining connectivity differently or via additional processes such as data mapping functions. The relative merits of these two additional constituents, namely the addition of tunable attributes and data mapping functions, are contrasted in a general remote sensing image analysis setting. Interestingly, tunable attributes in such a context, conjectured to be safely useful in general settings, were found detrimental under cross-validated conditions. This is in addition to this constituent’s requiring substantially greater computing time. Casting connectivity definitions as a searchable component, here via the utilization of data mapping functions, proved more beneficial and robust in this context. The results suggest that further investigations into such a general framework could benefit more from focusing on the aspects of data mapping and modifiable connectivity as opposed to the utility of thresholding various geometric and spectral attributes.

Beschreibung: The mapping and forecasting of droughts and floods is an important potential field of application of global soil moisture and water storage products from satellites and models. Especially when extremes in near-surface soil moisture propagate into extremes in total water storage, agricultural production and water supply can be severely impacted. This study relates soil moisture from the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) and the satellite sensors Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer—Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) to total water storage variations from the satellite gravity mission GRACE. A particular focus is on destructive hydrological extreme events, as listed in the International Disaster Database EM-DAT. Data sets are analyzed via correlation, time shift, and principal component analyses. The study area is the La Plata Basin in South America. The results indicate that most of the soil moisture anomalies are linked to periods of El Niño and La Niña and associated natural disasters. For the La Plata drought of 2008/2009 and the El Niño flooding of 2009/2010, soil moisture serves as an indicator for the later deficit or surplus in total water storage. These hydrological anomalies were strongest in the southern, central, and eastern parts of the basin, but more than one hundred thousand people were also affected in the northwestern part.

Beschreibung: Surface seiches in Flathead Lake Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2605-2615, 2015 Author(s): G. Kirillin, M. S. Lorang, T. C. Lippmann, C. C. Gotschalk, and S. Schimmelpfennig Standing surface waves or seiches are inherent hydrodynamic features of enclosed water bodies. Their two-dimensional structure is important for estimating flood risk, coastal erosion, and bottom sediment transport, and for understanding shoreline habitats and lake ecology in general. In this work, we present analysis of two-dimensional seiche characteristics in Flathead Lake, Montana, USA, a large intermountain lake known to have high seiche amplitudes. To examine spatial characteristics of different seiche modes, we used the original procedure of determining the seiche frequencies from the primitive equation model output with subsequent derivation of the spatial seiche structure at fixed frequencies akin to the tidal harmonic analysis. The proposed procedure revealed specific seiche oscillation features in Flathead Lake, including maximum surface level amplitudes of the first fundamental mode in straights around the largest island; several higher modes appearing locally in the vicinity of the river inflow; the "Helmholtz" open harbor mode, with the period approximately twice that of the longest seiche mode, generated by a large shallow bay connected to the main lake basin; and several rotating seiche modes potentially affecting the lake-wide circulation. We discuss lake management problems related to the spatial seiche distribution, such as shoreline erosion, floods, and transport of sediments and invasive species in Flathead Lake.

Beschreibung: Estimating flow and transport parameters in the unsaturated zone with pore water stable isotopes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2617-2635, 2015 Author(s): M. Sprenger, T. H. M. Volkmann, T. Blume, and M. Weiler Determining the soil hydraulic properties is a prerequisite to physically model transient water flow and solute transport in the vadose zone. Estimating these properties by inverse modelling techniques has become more common within the last 2 decades. While these inverse approaches usually fit simulations to hydrometric data, we expanded the methodology by using independent information about the stable isotope composition of the soil pore water depth profile as a single or additional optimization target. To demonstrate the potential and limits of this approach, we compared the results of three inverse modelling strategies where the fitting targets were (a) pore water isotope concentrations, (b) a combination of pore water isotope concentrations and soil moisture time series, and (c) a two-step approach using first soil moisture data to determine water flow parameters and then the pore water stable isotope concentrations to estimate the solute transport parameters. The analyses were conducted at three study sites with different soil properties and vegetation. The transient unsaturated water flow was simulated by solving the Richards equation numerically with the finite-element code of HYDRUS-1D. The transport of deuterium was simulated with the advection-dispersion equation, and a modified version of HYDRUS was used, allowing deuterium loss during evaporation. The Mualem–van Genuchten and the longitudinal dispersivity parameters were determined for two major soil horizons at each site. The results show that approach (a), using only the pore water isotope content, cannot substitute hydrometric information to derive parameter sets that reflect the observed soil moisture dynamics but gives comparable results when the parameter space is constrained by pedotransfer functions. Approaches (b) and (c), using both the isotope profiles and the soil moisture time series, resulted in good simulation results with regard to the Kling–Gupta efficiency and good parameter identifiability. However, approach (b) has the advantage that it considers the isotope data not only for the solute transport parameters but also for water flow and root water uptake, and thus increases parameter realism. Approaches (b) and (c) both outcompeted simulations run with parameters derived from pedotransfer functions, which did not result in an acceptable representation of the soil moisture dynamics and pore water stable isotope composition. Overall, parameters based on this new approach that includes isotope data lead to similar model performances regarding the water balance and soil moisture dynamics and better parameter identifiability than the conventional inverse model approaches limited to hydrometric fitting targets. If only data from isotope profiles in combination with textural information is available, the results are still satisfactory. This method has the additional advantage that it will not only allow us to estimate water balance and response times but also site-specific time variant transit times or solute breakthrough within the soil profile.

Beschreibung: Identification of spatiotemporal patterns of biophysical droughts in semi-arid region – a case study of the Karkheh river basin in Iran Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 5187-5217, 2015 Author(s): B. Kamali, K. C. Abbaspour, A. Lehmann, B. Wehrli, and H. Yang This study aims at identifying historical patterns of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural (inclusively biophysical) droughts in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB), one of the nine benchmark watersheds of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI), and soil moisture deficit index (SMDI) were used to represent the above three types of droughts, respectively. The three drought indices were compared across temporal and spatial dimensions. Variables required for calculating the indices were obtained from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) constructed for the region. The model was calibrated based on monthly runoff and yearly wheat yield using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. Five meteorological drought events were identified in the studied period (1980–2004), of which four corresponded with the hydrological droughts with 1–3 month lag. The meteorological droughts corresponded well with the agricultural droughts during dry months (May–August), while the latter lasted for a longer period of time. Analysis of drought patterns showed that southern parts of the catchment were more prone to agricultural drought, while less influenced by hydrological drought. Our analyses highlighted the necessity for monitoring all three aspects of drought for a more effective watershed management. The analysis on different types of droughts in this study provides a framework for assessing their possible impacts under future climate change in semi-arid areas.

Beschreibung: Evolution of ice-shelf channels in Antarctic ice shelves The Cryosphere, 9, 1169-1181, 2015 Author(s): R. Drews Ice shelves buttress the continental ice flux and mediate ice–ocean interactions. They are often traversed by channels in which basal melting is enhanced, impacting ice-shelf stability. Here, channel evolution is investigated using a transient, three-dimensional full Stokes model and geophysical data collected on the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf (RBIS), Antarctica. The modeling confirms basal melting as a feasible mechanism for channel creation, although channels may also advect without melting for many tens of kilometers. Channels can be out of hydrostatic equilibrium depending on their width and the upstream melt history. Inverting surface elevation for ice thickness using hydrostatic equilibrium in those areas is erroneous, and corresponding observational evidence is presented at RBIS by comparing the hydrostatically inverted ice thickness with radar measurements. The model shows that channelized melting imprints the flow field characteristically, which can result in enhanced horizontal shearing across channels. This is exemplified for a channel at RBIS using observed surface velocities and opens up the possibility to classify channelized melting from space, an important step towards incorporating these effects in ice–ocean models.

Beschreibung: Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 5219-5250, 2015 Author(s): A. Molina, V. Vanacker, E. Brisson, D. Mora, and V. Balthazar Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974–2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km 2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.

Beschreibung: Corrigendum to "Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2577–2586, 2015 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2637-2637, 2015 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, and F. Pappenberger