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  • Articles  (16)
  • Articles: DFG German National Licenses  (16)
  • uncertainty  (16)
  • 2010-2014
  • 2005-2009
  • 1990-1994  (15)
  • 1980-1984  (1)
  • 1950-1954
  • Economics  (16)
  • History
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The treatment of uncertainty in mineral exploration and exploitation (1984)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 271-284 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Search ; uncertainty ; economics ; exploration ; minerals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A sequential method of modeling the increase in precision of expected net revenues for a proposed exploration and exploitation program has been developed. Embedded within a computer simulation model of the exploration process, which incorporates a method of learning about deposit characteristics, is a multi-stage stochastic optimization process model to determine the optimal exploitation pattern of the deposit. This approach stresses the interdependence of the planning of the exploration and exploitation processes. The model can be used to determine the amount of exploration which should be undertaken in an area by more precisely predicting the long-range profitability associated with the amount of exploration. Thus, decision makers are provided a capability which reduces the uncertainty in profitability outcomes over future production periods.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01874744
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Cognitive rationality and alternative belief measures (1991)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 4 (1991), S. 299-324 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: uncertainty ; probability ; rationality ; belief
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this article, we first examine the various criticisms of the probabilistic model. Then we introduce capacities in order to show that if a probability measure corresponds to anesthetizing the belief of the agent's knowledge, it is then possible to suggest another type of rationality—namely, being able to describe a wise and a rash behavior when facing risk—and therefore another model of belief under uncertainty. While trying to specify various alternative measures, possibility, necessity, and measures resulting from a triangular norm or from a triangular conorm, we finally try to define the field of application of the probabilistic model as well as a sign of the rationality choice: constraint of mass-unity for traditional rationality, and constraint of duality for the one we present.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00114159
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity (1992)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 5 (1992), S. 325-370 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: ambiguity ; uncertainty ; Ellsberg paradox ; nonexpected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In subjective expected utility (SEU), the decision weights people attach to events are their beliefs about the likelihood of events. Much empirical evidence, inspired by Ellsberg (1961) and others, shows that people prefer to bet on events they know more about, even when their beliefs are held constant. (They are averse to ambiguity, or uncertainty about probability.) We review evidence, recent theoretical explanations, and applications of research on ambiguity and SEU.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00122575
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The utility of gambling (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 6 (1993), S. 255-275 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: gambling ; risk ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract A tiny utility of gambling is appended to an expected utility model for a risk-averse individual. It is shown that the model can explain small payoff gambles, large prize lotteries, and patterns of risk-seeking in the experimental evidence that are puzzling from the viewpoint of standard theory. At the same time, the model maintains expected utility theory's ability to explain insurance purchase, portfolio diversification, and other risk-averting behavior. The tiny utility of gambling could equally well be appended to models of risky choice other than the expected utility model.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01072614
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Insurer ambiguity and market failure (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 7 (1993), S. 71-87 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: insurer ambiguity ; uncertainty ; market failure ; decision making
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract A series of studies investigate the decision processes of actuaries, underwriters, and reinsurers in setting premiums for ambiguous and uncertain risks. Survey data on prices reveal that all three types of these insurance decision makers are risk averse and ambiguity averse. In addition, groups appear to be influenced in their premium-setting decisions by specific reference points such as expected loss and the concern with insolvency. This behavior is consistent with a growing analytical and empirical literature in economics and decision processes that investigates the role that uncertainty plays on managerial choices. Improved risk-assessment procedures and government involvement in providing protection against catastrophic losses may induce insurers to reduce premiums and broaden available coverage.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01065315
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Regret theory with general choice sets (1994)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 8 (1994), S. 153-165 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: regret theory ; stochastic dominance ; choice ; uncertainty ; 026
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The regret theory of choice under uncertainty proposed by Loomes and Sugden has performed well in explaining and predicting violations of Expected Utility theory. The original version of the model was confined to pairwise choices, which limited its usefulness as an economic theory of choice. Axioms for a more general form of regret theory have been proposed by Loomes and Sugden. In this article, it is shown that a simple nonmanipulability requirement is sufficient to characterize the functional form for regret theory with general choice sets. The stochastic dominance and comparative static properties of the model are outlined. A number of special cases are derived in which regret theory is equivalent to other well-known theories of choice under uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01065370
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Expected utility with lower probabilities (1994)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 8 (1994), S. 197-216 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: expected utility theory ; belief functions ; lower probability ; uncertainty ; D81
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory to characterize uncertainty neutrality and different degrees of uncertainty aversion.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01065372
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A tale of two tails: An alternative characterization of comparative risk (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 3 (1990), S. 65-82 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: risk ; uncertainty ; mean-preserving spreads ; star-shape
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract A characterization of comparative risk, parallel to but more restrictive than the Rothschild-Stiglitz (1970) characterization, is developed. As in Rothschild and Stiglitz, we develop a four-way characterization that consists of generating processes (a noise condition and generation by a sequence of special mean-preserving spreads), integral conditions, and preferences. The building blocks of this new order, Mean-preserving increases in risk about ν, where ν is any constant, are mean-preserving spreads whose centers have a nonempty intersection. If this intersection contains the mean of the distribution, the induced order, or mean-preserving increase in risk about the mean, conveys a particularly meaningful notion of an increase in risk as a buildup of the tails of the distribution.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00213261
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty (1991)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 4 (1991), S. 5-28 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: ambiguity ; uncertainty ; preferences
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract We investigate the relation between judgments of probability and preferences between bets. A series of experiments provides support for the competence hypothesis that people prefer betting on their own judgment over an equiprobable chance event when they consider themselves knowledgeable, but not otherwise. They even pay a significant premium to bet on their judgments. These data connot be explained by aversion to ambiguity, because judgmental probabilities are more ambiguous than chance events. We interpret the results in terms of the attribution of credit and blame. The possibility of inferring beliefs from preferences is questioned.1
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00057884
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A rational expectations equilibrium model of urban growth and land markets (1991)
    Springer
    The journal of real estate finance and economics 4 (1991), S. 225-265 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-045X
    Keywords: Land market ; uncertainty ; rational expectations ; urban growth
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a simple model of urban spatial growth under uncertainty with an infinite time horizon. The rational expectations equilibrium path (REE path) of the urban land market is obtained in explicit form as a function of exogenously given stochastic processes of future population, transport and household income in the city. Spatial and temporal characteristics of asset prices along the REE path are examined in detail.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00173126
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Uncertainty during tender offers and the measurement of shareholder wealth effects (1991)
    Springer
    Review of quantitative finance and accounting 1 (1991), S. 399-407 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7179
    Keywords: tender offers ; uncertainty ; shareholder wealth ; gains measurement
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Uncertainty concerning the ultimate outcome of tender offers may affect the measurement of changes in shareholder wealth. The uncertainty regarding the outcome of tender offers is measured by estimating the probability of acceptance of tender offers during the period when the tender offers are outstanding. The estimated probability of acceptance of tender offers implies that the amount of uncertainty prior to knowledge of the ultimate outcome is substantial and affects the measurement of expected equity gains. The uncertainty-adjusted measure of the change in shareholder wealth indicates that previous studies may have underestimated the gains expected to result from tender offers.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02408399
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Industry performance indices and the economics of information: New perspectives and caveats (1992)
    Springer
    Review of industrial organization 7 (1992), S. 83-90 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7160
    Keywords: Concentration ; performance ; index ; information ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Industry indices, be they conduct or performance based, frequently guide government intervention activities and are used for both predictive and prescriptive purposes. Unfortunately, few existing indices of industrial concentration are based on underlying economic theory, and those that are based on theory are based on models of perfect information. We derive a general performance measure relevant for industries that experience imperfect information. We do so by specifying a social welfare function that reflects the objectives of the policymaker and maps characteristics of industry equilibria under uncertainty into a real number that summarizes industry performance. The importance of explicitly accounting for the information structure of an industry is illustrated by deriving a reduced form for the performance measure valid when a monopolist faces random demand.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00354849
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Decision problems under uncertainty based on entropy functionals (1990)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 28 (1990), S. 143-172 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Entropy ; decision analysis ; information economics ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This essay intends to define the role of entropy, in particular, the role of the maximum entropy criterion with respect to decision analysis and information economics. By considering the average opportunity loss interpretation, the basic hypothesis for Shannon's derivation can be derived from properties of decision problems. Using the representation Bayes Boundary it is possible to show that selecting a single probability from a set by the Maximum Entropy Criterion corresponds to a minimax criterion for decision-making. Since problems of randomly accessing and storing information as well as communicating information can often be stated in terms of coding problems, this result might be used to develop strategies for minimizing retrieval time or communication costs.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00160933
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Communication of ambiguous risk information (1991)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 31 (1991), S. 159-173 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: ambiguity ; uncertainty ; Ellsberg Paradox ; information
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper reports on the responses of 646 individuals to environmental risk information involving different forms of risk ambiguity. Recipients of more than one set of risk information do not simply average the risk levels provided. Rather, a variety of aspects of the nature of the risks that are communicated influence their probabilistic beliefs. Individuals' perceptions of the risk levels to which they are exposed are likely to be greater: (i) for more ambiguous risks, (ii) for risks for which the unfavorable risk evidence is presented last even when there is no temporal order, (iii) for risks for which the most unfavorable risk studies have been performed most recently, and (iv) for risks where there is asymmetry in the risk ambiguity that imposes substantial potential downside risks. Although these effects are modest for the median individual, the potential for extreme responses that reflect only the most adverse or the most favorable piece of information provided is quite prevalent. These findings are of interest more generally in that they indicate how individuals form their risk perceptions in the presence of risk ambiguity.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00132991
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On generalized measures of realization in uncertain environments (1992)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 33 (1992), S. 41-69 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Probability ; aggregation ; t-norm ; uncertainty ; ordered weighted average
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We concern ourselves with the problem of determining the overall degree or measure of realization of an object based upon its occurrence in a collection of individual phenomena. We show that while probability is the classic measure of this type, it is but one of a whole family of possible such measures. We use the OWA operator to provide this family of measures. We investigate the situation in which our observations are both specific elements and subsets of some base set.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00133982
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Failures of the reduction principle in an Ellsberg-type problem (1992)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 32 (1992), S. 77-100 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: uncertainty ; experimental economics ; reduction principle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Segal (1987) suggested that the Ellsberg paradox might be explained in terms of individuals mentally representing the decision problem as a two-stage lottery which they evaluated according to a non-expected utility model. This paper describes an experiment involving an explicitly two-stage analogue to an Ellsberg-type problem. This design substantially reduces the frequency of classic Ellsberg behaviour, but reveals other systematic violations of conventional theory. The paper discusses the particular patterns of choice and raises the more general problem of modelling individual decisions when the reduction principle does not hold.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00133629
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