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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-12-06
    Description: The nuclear and magnetic structures of Mn3Fe2Si3 are investigated in the temperature range from 20 to 300 K. The magnetic properties of Mn3Fe2Si3 were measured on a single crystal. The compound undergoes a paramagnetic to antiferromagnetic transition at TN2 ≃ 120 K and an antiferromagnetic to antiferromagnetic transition at TN1 ≃ 69 K. A similar sequence of magnetic phase transitions is found for the parent compound Mn5Si3 upon temperature variation, but the field‐driven transition observed in Mn5Si3 is not found in Mn3Fe2Si3, resulting in a strongly reduced magnetocaloric effect. Structurally, the hexagonal symmetry found for both compounds under ambient conditions is preserved in Mn3Fe2Si3 through both magnetic transitions, indicating that the crystal structure is only weakly affected by the magnetic phase transition, in contrast to Mn5Si3 where both transitions distort the nuclear structure. Both compounds feature a collinear high‐temperature magnetic phase AF2 and transfer into a non‐collinear phase AF1 at low temperature. While one of the distinct crystallographic sites remains disordered in the AF2 phase in the parent compound, the magnetic structure in the AF2 phase involves all magnetic atoms in Mn3Fe2Si3. These observations imply that the distinct sites occupied by the magnetic atoms play an important role in the magnetocaloric behaviour of the family.
    Description: The nuclear and magnetic structures of Mn3Fe2Si3 are determined and the magnetic properties are compared with those of the parent compound Mn5Si3. The results imply that the distinct magnetic sites play an important role in the magnetocaloric behaviour of the family. image
    Keywords: ddc:548 ; magnetocaloric effect ; magnetic structure ; neutron diffraction ; synchrotron diffraction ; site dependence
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-06-24
    Description: Scientific tasks aimed at decoding and characterizing complex systems and processes at high pressures set new challenges for modern X‐ray diffraction instrumentation in terms of X‐ray flux, focal spot size and sample positioning. Presented here are new developments at the Extreme Conditions beamline (P02.2, PETRA III, DESY, Germany) that enable considerable improvements in data collection at very high pressures and small scattering volumes. In particular, the focusing of the X‐ray beam to the sub‐micrometer level is described, and control of the aberrations of the focusing compound refractive lenses is made possible with the implementation of a correcting phase plate. This device provides a significant enhancement of the signal‐to‐noise ratio by conditioning the beam shape profile at the focal spot. A new sample alignment system with a small sphere of confusion enables single‐crystal data collection from grains of micrometer to sub‐micrometer dimensions subjected to pressures as high as 200 GPa. The combination of the technical development of the optical path and the sample alignment system contributes to research and gives benefits on various levels, including rapid and accurate diffraction mapping of samples with sub‐micrometer resolution at multimegabar pressures.
    Description: Facing the challenges of X‐ray diffraction from tiny samples subjected to multimegabar pressures, instrumentation developments are presented that enable, among other studies, single‐crystal data collection from micrometer‐ to sub‐micrometer‐sized grains. The developments are based on a sub‐micrometer beam capability employing compound refractive lenses operating with a phase correcting plate and a precise motorization solution.
    Keywords: ddc:548
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: The small‐angle neutron scattering data of nanostructured magnetic samples contain information regarding their chemical and magnetic properties. Often, the first step to access characteristic magnetic and structural length scales is a model‐free investigation. However, due to measurement uncertainties and a restricted q range, a direct Fourier transform usually fails and results in ambiguous distributions. To circumvent these problems, different methods have been introduced to derive regularized, more stable correlation functions, with the indirect Fourier transform being the most prominent approach. Here, the indirect Fourier transform is compared with the singular value decomposition and an iterative algorithm. These approaches are used to determine the correlation function from magnetic small‐angle neutron scattering data of a powder sample of iron oxide nanoparticles; it is shown that with all three methods, in principle, the same correlation function can be derived. Each method has certain advantages and disadvantages, and thus the recommendation is to combine these three approaches to obtain robust results.
    Description: Three different approaches are compared for determination of the correlation function from the small‐angle neutron scattering data of a powder sample of iron oxide nanoparticles.
    Keywords: ddc:548
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: We review the widely used concepts of “buoyancy” and “convective available potential energy” (CAPE) in relation to deep convection in tropical cyclones and discuss their limitations. A fact easily forgotten in applying these concepts is that the buoyancy force of an air parcel, as often defined, is non‐unique because it depends on the arbitrary definition of a reference density field. However, when calculating CAPE, the buoyancy of a lifted air parcel is related to the specific reference density field along a vertical column passing through that parcel. Both concepts can be generalized for a vortical flow and to slantwise ascent of a lifted air parcel in such a flow. In all cases, the air parcel is assumed to have infinitely small dimensions. In this article, we explore the consequences of generalizing buoyancy and CAPE for buoyant regions of finite size that perturb the pressure field in their immediate environment. Quantitative calculations of effective buoyancy, defined as the sum of the conventional buoyancy and the static vertical perturbation pressure gradient force induced by it, are shown for buoyant regions of finite width. For a judicious choice of reference density, the effective buoyancy per unit mass is essentially a unique force, independent of the reference density, but its distribution depends on the horizontal scale of the buoyant region. A corresponding concept of “effective CAPE” is introduced and its relevance to deep convection in tropical cyclones is discussed. The study is conceived as a first step to understanding the decreasing ability of inner‐core deep convection in tropical cyclones to ventilate the mass of air converging in the frictional boundary layer as the vortex matures and decays.
    Description: The buoyancy force of an infinitesimally small air parcel is non‐unique, depending on the arbitrary definition of a reference density field. When calculating the “convective available potential energy” (CAPE), the buoyancy of a lifted air parcel is related to the reference density field along a vertical column passing through that parcel. We generalize buoyancy and CAPE for buoyant regions of finite size that perturb the pressure field in their immediate environment and discuss the relevance to deep convection in tropical cyclones.
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: New cross‐validation diagnostics have been derived by further partitioning well‐established impact diagnostics. They are related to consistency relations, the most prominent of which indicates whether the first‐guess departures of a given observation type pull the model state into the direction of the verifying data (when processed with the ensemble estimated model error covariances). Alternatively, this can be regarded as cross‐validation between model error covariance estimates from the ensemble (which are used in the data assimilation system) and estimates diagnosed directly from the observations. A statistical cross‐validation tool has been developed that includes an indicator of statistical significance as well as a normalization that makes the statistical comparison largely independent from the total number of data and the closeness of their collocation. We also present a version of these diagnostics related to single‐observation experiments that exploits the same consistency relations but is easier to compute. Diagnostics computed within the Deutscher Wetterdienst's localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) are presented for various kinds of bins. Results from well‐established in‐situ measurements are taken as a benchmark for more complex observations. Good agreement is found for radio‐occultation bending angle measurements, whereas atmospheric motion vectors are generally also beneficial but substantially less optimal than the corresponding in‐situ measurements. This is consistent with reported atmospheric motion vector height assignment problems. To illustrate its potential, a recent example is given where the method allowed identifying bias problems of a subgroup of aircraft measurements. Another diagnostic relationship compares the information content of the analysis increments with a theoretical optimum. From this, the information content of the LETKF increments is found to be considerably lower than those of the deterministic hybrid ensemble–variational system, which is consistent with the LETKF's limitation to the comparably low‐dimensional ensemble space for finding the optimal analysis.
    Description: New cross‐validation diagnostics are presented, allowing to test the consistent use of different observation types in the data assimilation system. The figure gives an example in which these new diagnostics allowed identification of the detrimental impact of a group of aircraft measurements (which as a consequence has now been blacklisted in the Deutscher Wetterdienst's operational system). More precisely, brown colors in this plot indicate regions where these aircraft measurements pulled the analysis state away from radiosonde observations.
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: Trade wind convection organises into a rich spectrum of spatial patterns, often in conjunction with precipitation development. Which role spatial organisation plays for precipitation and vice versa is not well understood. We analyse scenes of trade‐wind convection scanned by the C‐band radar Poldirad during the EUREC4A field campaign to investigate how trade‐wind precipitation fields are spatially organised, quantified by the cells' number, mean size, and spatial arrangement, and how this matters for precipitation characteristics. We find that the mean rain rate (i.e., the amount of precipitation in a scene) and the intensity of precipitation (mean conditional rain rate) relate differently to the spatial pattern of precipitation. Whereas the amount of precipitation increases with mean cell size or number, as it scales well with the precipitation fraction, the intensity increases predominantly with mean cell size. In dry scenes, the increase of precipitation intensity with mean cell size is stronger than in moist scenes. Dry scenes usually contain fewer cells with a higher degree of clustering than moist scenes do. High precipitation intensities hence typically occur in dry scenes with rather large, few, and strongly clustered cells, whereas high precipitation amounts typically occur in moist scenes with rather large, numerous, and weakly clustered cells. As cell size influences both the intensity and amount of precipitation, its importance is highlighted. Our analyses suggest that the cells' spatial arrangement, correlating mainly weakly with precipitation characteristics, is of second‐order importance for precipitation across all regimes, but it could be important for high precipitation intensities and to maintain precipitation amounts in dry environments.
    Description: We analyse scenes of trade‐wind convection scanned by the C‐band radar Poldirad during the EUREC4A field campaign to investigate how trade‐wind precipitation fields are spatially organised, quantified by the cells' number, mean size, and spatial arrangement, and how this matters for precipitation characteristics. We conclude that the cells' size is important for both the amount and intensity of precipitation, whereas the cells' spatial arrangement is of second‐order importance for precipitation across all regimes, but possibly important for precipitation in dry environments.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy—EXC 2037 'CLICCS—Climate, Climatic Change, and Society'
    Description: https://doi.org/10.25326/217
    Description: https://doi.org/10.25326/79
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of tropical intraseasonal variability, with wide‐reaching impacts even on extratropical weather and climate patterns. However, predicting the MJO is challenging. One reason is the suboptimal state estimates obtained with standard data assimilation (DA) approaches. These are typically based on filtering methods with Gaussian approximations and do not take into account physical properties that are important specifically for the MJO. In this article, a constrained ensemble DA method is applied to study the impact of different physical constraints on the state estimation and prediction of the MJO. The quadratic programming ensemble (QPEns) algorithm utilized extends the standard stochastic ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with specifiable constraints on the updates of all ensemble members. This allows us to recover physically more consistent states and to respect possible associated non‐Gaussian statistics. The study is based on identical twin experiments with an adopted nonlinear model for tropical intraseasonal variability. This so‐called skeleton model succeeds in reproducing the main large‐scale features of the MJO and closely related tropical waves, while keeping adequate simplicity for fast experiments on intraseasonal time‐scales. Conservation laws and other crucial physical properties from the model are examined as constraints in the QPEns. Our results demonstrate an overall improvement in the filtering and forecast skill when the model's total energy is conserved in the initial conditions. The degree of benefit is found to be dependent on the observational setup and the strength of the model's nonlinear dynamics. It is also shown that, even in cases where the statistical error in some waves remains comparable with the stochastic EnKF during the DA stage, their prediction is improved remarkably when using the initial state resulting from the QPEns.
    Description: Unsatisfactory predictions of the MJO are partly due to DA methods that do not respect non‐Gaussian PDFs and the physical properties of the tropical atmosphere. Therefore the QPEns, an algorithm extending a stochastic EnKF with state constraints, is tested here on a simplified model for the MJO and associated tropical waves. Our series of identical twin experiments shows, in particular, that a constraint on the truth's nonlinear total energy improves forecasts statistically and can, in certain situations, even prevent filter divergence. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft : Heisenberg Award (DFG JA1077/4‐1); Transregional Collaborative Research Center SFB / TRR 165 “Waves to Weather” http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Office of Naval Research (ONR) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000006
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: The stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendency (SPPT) scheme is a well‐established technique in ensemble forecasting to address model uncertainty by introducing perturbations into the tendencies provided by the physics parametrisations. The magnitude of the perturbations scales with the local net parametrisation tendency, resulting in large perturbations where diabatic processes are active. Rapidly ascending air streams, such as warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and organized tropical convection, are often driven by cloud diabatic processes and are therefore prone to such perturbations. This study investigates the effects of SPPT and initial condition perturbations on rapidly ascending air streams by computing trajectories in sensitivity experiments with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system, which are set up to disentangle the effects of initial conditions and physics perturbations. The results demonstrate that SPPT systematically increases the frequency of rapidly ascending air streams. The effect is observed globally, but is enhanced in regions where the latent heating along the trajectories is larger. Despite the frequency changes, there are only minor modifications to the physical properties of the trajectories due to SPPT. In contrast to SPPT, initial condition perturbations do not affect WCBs and tropical convection systematically. An Eulerian perspective on vertical velocities reveals that SPPT increases the frequency of strong upward motions compared with experiments with unperturbed model physics. Consistent with the altered vertical motions, precipitation rates are also affected by the model physics perturbations. The unperturbed control member shows the same characteristics as the experiments without SPPT regarding rapidly ascending air streams. We make use of this to corroborate the findings from the sensitivity experiments by analyzing the differences between perturbed and unperturbed members in operational ensemble forecasts of ECMWF. Finally, we give an explanation of how symmetric, zero‐mean perturbations can lead to a unidirectional response when applied in a nonlinear system.
    Description: The stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies (SPPT) scheme is used at ECMWF to perturb the model physics and introduces state‐dependent perturbations into the parametrisation tendencies. The frequency of rapidly ascending air streams is systematically enhanced when SPPT is active. This effect is stronger when the latent heating is large (panel a), and is therefore more pronounced in the Tropics than in the Extratropics. In contrast, the impact of SPPT on the physical properties of the air streams, such as the latent heat release, is very small (panel b).
    Description: Helmholtz Young Investigator Group ‘Sub‐ Seasonal Predictability: Understanding the Role of Diabatic Outflow’
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-06-16
    Description: A method of ab initio crystal structure determination from powder diffraction data for organic and metal–organic compounds, which does not require prior indexing of the powder pattern, has been developed. Only a reasonable molecular geometry is required, needing knowledge of neither unit‐cell parameters nor space group. The structures are solved from scratch by a global fit to the powder data using the new program FIDEL‐GO (`FIt with DEviating Lattice parameters ‐ Global Optimization'). FIDEL‐GO uses a similarity measure based on cross‐correlation functions, which allows the comparison of simulated and experimental powder data even if the unit‐cell parameters deviate strongly. The optimization starts from large sets of random structures in various space groups. The unit‐cell parameters, molecular position and orientation, and selected internal degrees of freedom are fitted simultaneously to the powder pattern. The optimization proceeds in an elaborate multi‐step procedure with built‐in clustering of duplicate structures and iterative adaptation of parameter ranges. The best structures are selected for an automatic Rietveld refinement. Finally, a user‐controlled Rietveld refinement is performed. The procedure aims for the analysis of a wide range of `problematic' powder patterns, in particular powders of low crystallinity. The method can also be used for the clustering and screening of a large number of possible structure candidates and other application scenarios. Examples are presented for structure determination from unindexed powder data of the previously unknown structures of the nanocrystalline phases of 4,11‐difluoro‐, 2,9‐dichloro‐ and 2,9‐dichloro‐6,13‐dihydro‐quinacridone, which were solved from powder patterns with 14–20 peaks only, and of the coordination polymer dichloro‐bis(pyridine‐N)copper(II).
    Description: A new method for the structure determination of molecular crystals from unindexed powder data has been developed and successfully applied. The method performs a global optimization using pattern comparison based on cross‐correlation functions.
    Keywords: ddc:548
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-12-15
    Description: High‐pressure (HP) X‐ray diffraction experiments at low temperature (LT) require dedicated instruments as well as non‐standard sample environments and measuring strategies. This is especially true when helium cryogenic temperatures below 80 K are targeted. Furthermore, only experiments on single‐crystalline samples provide the prerequisites to study subtle structural changes in the p–T phase diagram under extreme LT and HP conditions in greater detail. Due to special hardware requirements, such measurements are usually in the realm of synchrotron beamlines. This contribution describes the design of an LT/HP diffractometer (HTD2) to perform single‐crystal X‐ray diffraction experiments using a laboratory source in the temperature range 400 〉 T 〉 2 K while applying pressures of up to 20 GPa.
    Description: The design and operation of a newly commissioned single‐crystal X‐ray diffractometer (HTD2) are presented. The device enables experiments under simultaneous low‐temperature and high‐pressure conditions using a laboratory X‐ray source.
    Keywords: ddc:548 ; HTD2 ; low temperature ; high pressure ; single crystals ; instrumentation
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    International Union of Crystallography | 5 Abbey Square, Chester, Cheshire CH1 2HU, England
    Publication Date: 2022-04-07
    Description: Incoherent diffractive imaging (IDI) promises structural analysis with atomic resolution based on intensity interferometry of pulsed X‐ray fluorescence emission. However, its experimental realization is still pending and a comprehensive theory of contrast formation has not been established to date. Explicit expressions are derived for the equal‐pulse two‐point intensity correlations, as the principal measured quantity of IDI, with full control of the prefactors, based on a simple model of stochastic fluorescence emission. The model considers the photon detection statistics, the finite temporal coherence of the individual emissions, as well as the geometry of the scattering volume. The implications are interpreted in view of the most relevant quantities, including the fluorescence lifetime, the excitation pulse, as well as the extent of the scattering volume and pixel size. Importantly, the spatiotemporal overlap between any two emissions in the sample can be identified as a crucial factor limiting the contrast and its dependency on the sample size can be derived. The paper gives rigorous estimates for the optimum sample size, the maximum photon yield and the expected signal‐to‐noise ratio under optimal conditions. Based on these estimates, the feasibility of IDI experiments for plausible experimental parameters is discussed. It is shown in particular that the mean number of photons per detector pixel which can be achieved with X‐ray fluorescence is severely limited and as a consequence imposes restrictive constraints on possible applications.
    Description: Starting from a simple model of stochastic fluorescence emission, a theory is derived of contrast formation and signal‐to‐noise ratio for incoherent diffractive imaging; its feasibility for plausible experimental parameters is discussed. image
    Keywords: ddc:548
    Language: English
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-03-30
    Description: With increasing resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, classical subgrid‐scale processes become increasingly resolved on the model grid. In particular, turbulence in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is vertically already partially resolved in contemporary models. For classical local PBL schemes, resulting up‐gradient heat transports cannot be treated correctly. Thus, nonlocal turbulence schemes have been developed in the past. As the horizontal grid sizes of NWP models become smaller than a few kilometers, the large turbulence eddies in the PBL will also start to become partially resolved in the horizontal direction. A very flexible way to formulate nonlocal turbulent exchange is the transilient matrix method, which is used here to develop a new turbulence parameterization. The resulting NLT3D scheme applies transilient mixing matrices to subgrid‐scale transports in all three dimensions. We compare results of WRF real‐case simulations including our scheme, a classical local turbulence scheme (MYNN), and an existing nonlocal one‐dimensional scheme (ACM2) with observations from field campaigns over homogeneous terrain (CASES‐99) and complex terrain (CAPTEX). Over homogeneous terrain, all three schemes similarly well capture the observed surface fluxes and radiosonde profiles, whereas over complex terrain more differences become obvious. During a tracer release experiment (CAPTEX) over the Appalachian mountain region, the mixing and vertical extent of the PBL turn out to be decisive to reproduce the observed advection speed of the tracer‐marked air mass. Deeper mixing not only accelerates surface winds but also enables tracer to travel faster at higher altitudes and then mix back to the ground. As results from a version of NLT3D with only standard horizontal Smagorinsky diffusion (NLT1D) demonstrate, simulating three‐dimensional turbulence can be beneficial already at horizontal grid sizes of a few kilometers.
    Description: Decreasing grid sizes in numerical weather prediction models demand the inclusion of nonlocal effects and horizontal turbulence in turbulence parameterizations. This is the motivation for the development of the nonlocal three‐dimensional turbulence (NLT3D) scheme. Vertical nonlocal mixing accelerates the horizontal transport of near‐surface tracers by fast advection at higher altitudes (see figure), and horizontal turbulence enhances tracer dispersion. As validated by observations, both effects are beneficial to the forecast quality already at grid sizes of a few kilometers.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-03-31
    Description: Aerosol can affect clouds in various ways. Beside the microphysical impact of aerosol particles on cloud formation, the interference of aerosol with atmospheric radiation leads to changes in local heating, surface fluxes and thus mesoscale circulations, all of which may also modify clouds. Rather little is known about these so‐called semi‐direct effects in realistic settings – a reason why this study investigates the impact of absorbing aerosol particles on cloud and radiation fields over Germany. Using advanced high‐resolution simulations with grid spacings of 312 and 625 m, numerical experiments with different aerosol optical properties are contrasted using purely scattering aerosol as a control case and realistic absorbing aerosol as a perturbation. The combined effect of surface dimming and atmospheric heating induces positive temperature and negative moisture anomalies between 800 and 900 hPa, impacting low‐level cloud formation. Decreased relative humidity as well as increased atmospheric stability below clouds lead to a reduction of low‐level cloud cover, liquid water path and precipitation. It is further found that direct and semi‐direct effects of absorbing aerosol forcing have similar magnitudes and contribute equally to a reduction of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere.
    Description: Atmospheric aerosol particles can absorb solar radiation, altering the thermal structure of the atmosphere and surface fluxes. Using advanced high‐resolution simulations over Germany with grid spacings of 312 and 625 m, we find that boundary‐layer absorbing aerosol reduces low‐level cloud cover, liquid water path and precipitation. Direct and semi‐direct effects have similar magnitudes and contribute equally to a positive absorbing aerosol forcing.
    Description: German Ministry for Education and Research EU Horizon 2020 project CONSTRAIN
    Description: https://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/cerasearch/entry?acronym=DKRZ_LTA_1174_ds00001
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: An idealized, three‐dimensional, numerical simulation of tropical cyclone evolution in a quiescent environment on an f‐plane is used to explore aspects of the cyclone's life cycle in the context of the rotating‐convection paradigm. In the 20‐day simulation, the vortex undergoes a life cycle including a gestation period culminating in genesis, a rapid intensification phase, a mature phase, a transient decay and re‐intensification phase, a second mature phase and a rapid decay phase. During much of the life cycle, the flow evolution is highly asymmetric, although important aspects of it can be understood within an azimuthally averaged framework, central to which are a boundary‐layer control mechanism and a new ventilation diagnostic. The boundary‐layer control mechanism provides an explanation for the gradual expansion of the inner core of the vortex. The ventilation diagnostic characterizes the ability of deep convection within a given radius to evacuate the mass of air ascending out of the boundary layer within that radius. The transient decay and re‐intensification phase is not associated with an eyewall replacement cycle, but rather with a hitherto undescribed process in which the eyewall becomes fragmented as a rainband complex forms beyond it. This process is interpreted as an interplay between the boundary layer and ventilation. The final rapid decay of the vortex results from the ever increasing difficulty of deep convection to ventilate the air exiting the boundary layer. Any unventilated air flows radially outwards in the lower troposphere and leads to spin‐down because of the approximate conservation of mean absolute angular momentum. If found in real cyclones, such transience or final decay might be erroneously attributed to ambient vertical wind shear. The results support the hypothesis that, even in a quiescent environment, isolated tropical cyclone vortices are intrinsically transient and never reach a globally steady state.
    Description: A three‐dimensional, idealized numerical simulation of tropical cyclone evolution on an f‐plane is used to explore aspects of the cyclone's life cycle in the framework of the rotating‐convection paradigm. In the simulation, which lasts for 20 days, the vortex undergoes a life cycle that includes a gestation period cultimating in genesis, a rapid intensification period, a mature stage followed by a transient decay and re‐intensification stage, a second mature stage and a final rapid decay stage. The results support the hypothesis that, even in a quiescent environment on an f‐plane, isolated tropical cyclone vortices are intrinsically transient and never reach a globally steady state.
    Description: U.S. Office of Naval Research http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000006
    Description: German Research Council
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: Weather regime forecasts are a prominent use case of sub‐seasonal prediction in the midlatitudes. A systematic evaluation and understanding of year‐round sub‐seasonal regime forecast performance is still missing, however. Here we evaluate the representation of and forecast skill for seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes in sub‐seasonal reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Forecast calibration improves regime frequency biases and forecast skill most strongly in summer, but scarcely in winter, due to considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer. The average regime skill horizon in winter is about 5 days longer than in summer and spring, and 3 days longer than in autumn. The Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking tend to have the longest year‐round skill horizon, which is driven by their high persistence in winter. The year‐round skill is lowest for the European Blocking, which is common for all seasons but most pronounced in winter and spring. For the related, more northern Scandinavian Blocking, the skill is similarly low in winter and spring but higher in summer and autumn. We further show that the winter average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), but reduced following a weak SPV. Likewise, the year‐round average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following phases 4 and 7 of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) but reduced following phase 2, driven by winter but also autumn and spring. Our study thus reveals promising potential for year‐round sub‐seasonal regime predictions. Further model improvements can be achieved by reduction of the considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer, better understanding and modeling of blocking in the European region, and better exploitation of the potential predictability provided by weak SPV states and specific MJO phases in winter and the transition seasons.
    Description: The overall sub‐seasonal forecast performance (biases and skill) for predicting seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes is highest in winter and lowest in summer. The year‐round skill horizon is shortest for the European Blocking and longest for the Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking (see figure). Furthermore, the winter skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex but reduced following a weak one. Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 4 and 7 tend to increase and phase 2 to decrease the year‐round skill horizon.
    Description: Helmholtz‐Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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