ALBERT

Description: We show that the strength of the magnetic field in the area covered by the flare arcade following a CME-producing ejective solar eruption can be estimated from the final angular width of the CME in the outer corona and the final angular width of the flare arcade. We assume (1) the flux-rope plasmoid ejected from the flare site becomes the interior of the CME plasmoid, (2) in the outer corona (R greater than 2R(sub Sun)) the CME is roughly a spherical plasmoid with legs shaped like a light bulb, and (3) beyond some height in or below the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure balance with the surrounding magnetic field. The strength of the nearly radial magnetic field in the outer corona is estimated from the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Ulysses. We apply this model to three well-observed CMEs that exploded from flare regions of extremely different size and magnetic setting. One of these CMEs is an over-and-out CME that exploded from a laterally far offset compact ejective flare. In each event, the estimated source-region field strength is appropriate for the magnetic setting of the flare. This agreement (1) indicates that CMEs are propelled by the magnetic field of the CME plasmoid pushing against the surrounding magnetic field, (2) supports the magnetic-arch-blowout scenario for over-and-out CMEs, and (3) shows that a CME s final angular width in the outer corona can be estimated from the amount of magnetic flux covered by the source-region flare arcade.

Description: We solve the problem of propagation and dissipation of Alfvenic turbulence in a model solar atmosphere consisting of a static photosphere and chromosphere, transition region, and open corona and solar wind using a phenomenological model for the turbulent dissipation based on wave reflection. We show that most of the dissipation for a given wave frequency spectrum occurs in the lower corona, and the overall rms amplitude of the fluctuations evolves in a way consistent with observations. The frequency spectrum for a Kolmogorov-like slope is not found to change dramatically from the photosphere to the solar wind; however, it does preserve signatures of transmission throughout the lower atmospheric layers, namely, oscillations in the spectrum at high frequencies reminiscent of the resonances found in the linear case. These may disappear once more realistic couplings for the nonlinear terms are introduced or if time-dependent variability of the lower atmospheric layer is introduced.

Description: We show that the strength (B(sub F1are)) of the magnetic field in the area covered by the flare arcade following a CME-producing ejective solar eruption can be estimated from the final angular width (Final Theta(sub CME)) of the CME in the outer corona and the final angular width (Theta(sub Flare)) of the flare arcade: B(sub Flare) approx. equals 1.4[(Final Theta(sub CME)/Theta(sub Flare)] (exp 2)G. We assume (1) the flux-rope plasmoid ejected from the flare site becomes the interior of the CME plasmoid; (2) in the outer corona (R 〉 2 (solar radius)) the CME is roughly a "spherical plasmoid with legs" shaped like a lightbulb; and (3) beyond some height in or below the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure balance with the surrounding magnetic field. The strength of the nearly radial magnetic field in the outer corona is estimated from the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Ulysses. We apply this model to three well-observed CMEs that exploded from flare regions of extremely different size and magnetic setting. One of these CMEs was an over-and-out CME, that is, in the outer corona the CME was laterally far offset from the flare-marked source of the driving magnetic explosion. In each event, the estimated source-region field strength is appropriate for the magnetic setting of the flare. This agreement (1) indicates that CMEs are propelled by the magnetic field of the CME plasmoid pushing against the surrounding magnetic field; (2) supports the magnetic-arch-blowout scenario for over-and-out CMEs; and (3) shows that a CME's final angular width in the outer corona can be estimated from the amount of magnetic flux covered by the source-region flare arcade.

Description: We observe the eruption of a large-scale (approx.300,000 km) quiet-region solar filament, leading to an Earth-directed "halo" coronal mass ejection (CME). We use coronal imaging data in EUV from the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite, and in soft X-rays (SXRs) from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on the Yohkoh satellite. We also use spectroscopic data from the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS), magnetic data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and white-light coronal data from the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO), all on SOHO. Initially the filament shows a slow (approx.1 km/s projected against the solar disk) and approximately constant-velocity rise for about 6 hours, before erupting rapidly, reaching a velocity of approx. 8 km/s over the next approx. 25 min. CDS Doppler data show Earth-directed filament velocities ranging from 〈 20 km/s (the noise limit) during the slow-rise phase, to approx. 100 km/s-1 early in the eruption. Beginning within 10 hours prior to the start of the slow rise, localized new magnetic flux emerged near one end of the filament. Near the start of and during the slow-rise phase, SXR microflaring occurred repeatedly at the flux-emergence site, in conjunction with the development of a fan of SXR illumination of the magnetic arcade over the filament. The SXR microflares, development of the SXR fan, and motion of the slow-rising filament are all consistent with "tether-weakening" reconnection occurring between the newly-emerging flux and the overlying arcade field containing the filament field. The microflares and fan structure are not prominent in EUV, and would not have been detected without the SXR data. Standard "twin dimmings" occur near the location of the filament, and "remote dimmings" and "brightenings" occur further removed from the filament.

Description: Observations of nonthermal X-ray sources me critical to studying electron acceleration and transport in solar flares. Strong thermal emission radiated from the preheated plasma before the flare impulsive phase often makes it difficult to detect low-energy X-ray sources that are produced by relatively low-energy nonthermal electrons. Knowledge of the distribution of these low-energy nonthermal electrons is particularly important in determining the total nonthermal electron energy in solar flares. We report on an 'early impulsive flare' in which impulsive hard X-ray emission was seen early in the flare before the soft X-ray emission had risen significantly, indicating limited plasma pre-heating. Early in the flare, RHESSI 〈 25 keV images show coronal sources that moved first downward and then upwards along the legs of a flare loop. In particular, the 3-6 keV source appeared as a single coronal source at the start of the flare, and then it involved into two coronal sources moving down along the two legs of the loop. After nearly reaching the two footpoints at the hard X-ray peak, the two sources moved back up to the looptop again. RHESSI images and light curves all indicate that nonthermal emission dominated at energies as low as 3-6 keV. We suggest that the evolution of both the spectral index and the low-energy cutoff of the injected electron distribution could result in the accelerated electrons reaching a lower altitude along the legs of the dense flare loop and hence result in the observed downward and upward motions of the nonthermal sources.

Description: We briefly describe the "standard model" for the production of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and our view of how it works. We then summarize pertinent recent results that we have found from SOHO observations of CMEs and the flares at the sources of these magnetic explosions. These results support our interpretation of the standard model: a CME is basically a self-propelled magnetic bubble, a low-beta plasmoitl, that (1) is built and unleashed by the tether-cutting reconnection that builds and heats the coronal flare arcade, (2) can explode from a flare site that is far from centered under the full-blown CME in the outer corona, and (3) drives itself out into the solar wind by pushing on the surrounding coronal magnetic field.

Description: The confocal Fabry-Perot interferometer allows sub-picometer spectral resolution of Fraunhofer line profiles. Such high spectral resolution is needed to keep pace with the higher spatial resolution of the new set of large-aperture solar telescopes. The line-of-sight spatial resolution derived for line profile inversions would then track the improvements of the transverse spatial scale provided by the larger apertures. In particular, profile inversion allows improved velocity and magnetic field gradients to be determined independent of multiple line analysis using different energy levels and ions. The confocal interferometer's unique properties allow a simultaneous increase in both etendue and spectral power. The higher throughput for the interferometer provides significant decrease in the aperture, which is important in spaceflight considerations. We have constructed and tested two confocal interferometers. A slow-response thermal-controlled interferometer provides a stable system for laboratory investigation, while a piezoelectric interferometer provides a rapid response for solar observations. In this paper we provide design parameters, show construction details, and report on the laboratory test for these interferometers. The field of view versus aperture for confocal interferometers is compared with other types of spectral imaging filters. We propose a multiple etalon system for observing with these units using existing planar interferometers as pre-filters. The radiometry for these tests established that high spectral resolution profiles can be obtained with imaging confocal interferometers. These sub-picometer spectral data of the photosphere in both the visible and near-infrared can provide important height variation information. However, at the diffraction-limited spatial resolution of the telescope, the spectral data is photon starved due to the decreased spectral passband.

Description: In this paper, for a CME of the particular variety recently identified by Bemporad et al (2005), we present new evidence that strengthens the conclusion of Bemporad et al that for these CMEs the pre-eruption magnetic field that explodes to drive the CME is laterally far offset from the radial path of the full-blown CME in the outer corona. In CMEs of the particular variety of those found by Bemporad et al, the flare-site field that explodes is much more compact than the flare-site fields that explode in most major flares and large CMEs, and is located in a flank of the base of a streamer. After presenting our new evidence for how CMEs of this variety are produced, we cite and discuss examples of larger flare-producing magnetic explosions that are not necessarily in a flank of a streamer but occur together with a large CME that in the outer corona is laterally far offset from the flare. We conclude that there is a broad class of CMEs that come from flare-producing magnetic explosions of various sizes and that are laterally far offset from the flare. We propose that all CMEs of this broad class are produced in basically the same way as those of the particular variety of the one that we present in this paper. In this paper, it is therefore convenient and useful to refer to this broad class of CMEs (regardless of the pre-eruption size of the offset field that explodes and whether or not this field is in the flank of a streamer), as "over-and-out" CMEs. Because the lack of recognition of this class of CMEs has contributed to the confusion and controversy regarding the relation between flares and CMEs (e.g., Kahler 1992; Gosling 1993; Hudson et al 1995), it is important that this class of CME have an explicit name. We adopt the name over-and-out CME because it is a needed descriptive term, especially for the purpose of this paper.

Description: We explore the nature of 'hills' observed on the solar surface which had previously been attributed to Rossby waves. We investigate the sol ar hills phenomenon by analyzing the output from a synthetic model ba sed solely on the observed solar photospheric convection spectrum. We show that the characteristics of these hills can be explained by the corrugation of the surface produced by the radial flows of the conve ction. The hills in our simulations are dominated by supergranules, a well-known component of solar convection. Rossby waves have been predicted to exist within the Sun and may play an important role in the d ynamics of the solar interior, including the Sun's differential rotat ion and magnetic dynamo. Our study suggests, however, that the hills observed at the solar limb do not confirm the existence of solar Ross by waves.

Description: This paper examines the error resulting from using a lineal energy spectrum to represent a linear energy transfer spectrum for applications in the space radiation environment. Lineal energy and linear energy transfer spectra are compared in three diverse but typical space radiation environments. Different detector geometries are also studied to determine how they affect the error. LET spectra are typically used to compute dose equivalent for radiation hazard estimation and single event effect rates to estimate radiation effects on electronics. The errors in the estimations of dose equivalent and single event rates that result from substituting lineal energy spectra for linear energy spectra are examined. It is found that this substitution has little effect on dose equivalent estimates in interplanetary quiet-time environment regardless of detector shape. The substitution has more of an effect when the environment is dominated by solar energetic particles or trapped radiation, but even then the errors are minor especially if a spherical detector is used. For single event estimation, the effect of the substitution can be large if the threshold for the single event effect is near where the linear energy spectrum drops suddenly. It is judged that single event rate estimates made from lineal energy spectra are unreliable and the use of lineal energy spectra for single event rate estimation should be avoided.

Description: We examine solar energetic particle (SEP) event-averaged abundances of Fe relative to O and intensity versus time profiles at energies above 25 MeV/nucleon using the SIS instrument on ACE. These data are compared with solar wind conditions during each event and with estimates of the strength of the associated shock based on average travel times to 1 AU. We find that the majority of events with an Fe to 0 abundance ratio greater than two times the average 5-12 MeV/nuc value for large SEP events (0.134) occur in the western hemisphere. Furthermore, in most of these Fe-rich events the profiles peak within 12 hours of the associated flare, suggesting that some of the observed interplanetary particles are accelerated in these flares. The vast majority of events with Fe/O below 0.134 are influenced by interplanetary shock acceleration. We suggest that variations in elemental composition in SEP events mainly arise from the combination of flare particles and shock acceleration of these particles and/or the ambient medium.

Description: Long-time high-resolution simulations of the dynamics of a coronal loop in Cartesian geometry are carried out, within the framework of reduced magnetohydrodynamics (RMHD), to understand coronal heating driven by the motion of field lines anchored in the photosphere. We unambiguously identify MHD anisotropic turbulence as the physical mechanism responsible for the transport of energy from the large scales, where energy is injected by photospheric motions, to the small scales, where it is dissipated. As the loop parameters vary, different regimes of turbulence develop: strong turbulence is found for weak axial magnetic fields and long loops, leading to Kolmogorov-like spectra in the perpendicular direction, while weaker and weaker regimes (steeper spectral slopes of total energy) are found for strong axial magnetic fields and short loops. As a consequence we predict that the scaling of the heating rate with axial magnetic field intensity B, which depends on the spectral index of total energy for given loop parameters, must vary from B3/2 for weak fields to B2 for strong fields at a given aspect ratio. The predicted heating rate is within the lower range of observed active region and quiet-Sun coronal energy losses.

Description: We present results of a statistical investigation of 99 magnetic clouds (MCs) observed during 1995-2005. The MC-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are faster and wider on the average and originate within +/-30deg from the solar disk center. The solar sources of MCs also followed the butterfly diagram. The correlation between the magnetic field strength and speed of MCs was found to be valid over a much wider range of speeds. The number of south-north (SN) MCs was dominant and decreased with solar cycle, while the number of north-south (NS) MCs increased confirming the odd-cycle behavior. Two-thirds of MCs were geoeffective; the Dst index was highly correlated with speed and magnetic field in MCs as well as their product. Many (55%) fully northward (FN) MCs were geoeffective solely due to their sheaths. The non-geoeffective MCs were slower (average speed approx. 382 km/s), had a weaker southward magnetic field (average approx. -5.2nT), and occurred mostly during the rise phase of the solar activity cycle.

Description: Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. In particular, the humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone from chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. These anthropogenic effects on ozone are most important in polar regions and have been significant since the 1970s. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the short- and medium-term (days to a few months) influences of solar proton events between 1963 and 2005 on stratospheric ozone. The four largest events in the past 45 years (August 1972; October 1989; July 2000; and October-November 2003) caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen- containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The hydrogen-containing compounds have very short lifetimes and lasted for only a few days (typically the duration of the solar proton event). On the other hand, the nitrogen-containing compounds lasted much longer, especially in the Winter. The nitrogen oxides were predicted to increase substantially due to these solar events and led to mid- to upper polar stratospheric ozone decreases of over 20%. These WACCM results generally agreed with satellite measurements. Both WACCM and measurements showed enhancements of nitric acid, dinitrogen pentoxide, and chlorine nitrate, which were indirectly caused by these solar events. Solar proton events were shown to cause a significant change in the polar stratosphere and need to be considered in understanding variations during years of strong solar activity.

Description: Groups of linear g-modes can sum to create long-lived nonlinear oscillations in small "hot volumes" very deep in the Sun that help drive the modes. In these volumes (dimensions -10 Mm), the time average rate of He-3 burning doubles as temperature fluctuations exceed 10% and rises by an order of magnitude for fluctuations of 25%. To be consistent with locally large motions, we impose a mixed shell on an otherwise standard solar model before computing g-mode solutions. Mixing in the assumed shell r = (0.10+/-0.03) R(sub sun) is rapid (〈〈10(exp 6) yr) with slower mixing somewhat beyond. If l is the principal spherical harmonic index, a set of g-modes for any single l less than or equal to 15 with five consecutive radial harmonics can be excited with nearly linear thermal amplitudes, A(sub T) less than or equal to 0.053, throughout the star and a fractional temperature fluctuation in its hot volume of (Delta)T/T less than or equal to 0.18. These thresholds for excitation will become smaller when sets for several values of l are computed simultaneously. There is some evidence for the rotation of g-mode sets in the long solar activity record and g-mode upward wave flux has been suggested to explain the 1.3 yr reversing flows tentatively detected below the Sun's convective envelope (CE). The large local amplitudes needed for excitation implies that g-modes may transport a non-negligible fraction of the solar luminosity, yet their near linear amplitudes outside the hot volume suggests amplitudes over most of the solar surface that would be barely detectable for l 〉 3. A formalism is presented for summing the g-modes and estimating growth rates under the approximation that modes are strictly linear except in a hot volume which holds only a few percent of mode kinetic energy. Finally over the range 2 less than or equal to l less than or equal to 30, we summed all zonal harmonics, m, for a given l and computed the relative angular orientations that would release the most nuclear energy. This should be close to the physically preferred angular state of such a family and a few examples were displayed.

Description: We find a strong correlation between the kinetic energies (KEs) of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the radiated energies of the associated solar flares for the events that occurred during the period of intense solar activity between 18 October and 08 November 2003. CME start times, speeds, mass and KEs were taken from Gopalswamy et al. (2005), who used SOHO/LASCO observations. The GOES observations of the associated flares were analyzed to find the peak soft X-ray (SXR) flux, the radiated energy in SXRs (L(sub sxR)), and the radiated energy from the emitting plasma across all wavelengths (L(sub hot)). RHESSI observations were also used to find the energy in non-thermal electrons, ions, and the plasma thermal energy for some events. For two events, SORCE/TIM observations of the total solar irradiance during a flare were also available to give the total radiated flare energy (L(sub total)).W e find that the total flare energies of the larger events are of the same order of magnitude as the CME KE with a stronger correlation than has been found in the past for other time intervals.

Description: We use Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) filtergraph (FG) Stokes-V magnetogram observations to study the early onset of a solar eruption that includes an erupting filament that we observe in TRACE EUV images; this is one of the first filament eruptions seen with Hinode. The filament undergoes a slow rise for at least 30 min prior to its fast eruption and strong soft X-ray flaring, and the new Hinode data elucidate the physical processes occurring during the slow-rise period: During the slow-rise phase, a soft X-ray (SXR) sigmoid forms from apparent reconnection low in the sheared core field traced by the filament, and there is a low-level intensity peak in both EUV and SXRs during the slow rise. The SOT data show that magnetic flux cancellation occurs along the neutral line of the filament in the hours before eruption, and this likely caused the low-lying reconnection that produced the microflaring and the slow rise leading up to the eruption.

Description: The future HELEX mission concept by NASA/ESA to the inner heliosphere (0.22 AU 〈 r 〈 0.7 AU) and the possibility of a Solar Probe mission to the Sun (9.5 Rs 〈 r 〈 0.7 AU) will allow for a comprehensive exploration of the inner heliosphere with the prospect for major discoveries and resolution of long standing issues of heliospheric science. The new Solar Probe mission being considered is equatorial and will allow exploration of the streamer belt region from a closeup perspective. We'll be able to look for the suprathermal ion population some think are necessary as the seed population for SEP events, look closeup at CMEs and formation of shock inside the Alfven critical point, probe the outer boundaries of the streamer belts, reconnection within the current sheets, MHD waves and turbulence and the inner source where they are felt to form and may reveal themselves as pickup ions. All will be launched around Solar Minimum with rise in solar activity toward the end of these missions. Extended missions could then occur during Solar Maximum. I'll talk about the complement of instrumentation and mission strategies.

Description: A three-dimensional integration of the MHD equations in spherical coordinates has been developed that attempts to simulate a variety of solar wind conditions. These include the interaction of Alfven wave packets and the development of a turbulent cascade, the role of the heliospheric current sheet, the role of quasi-two-dimensional fluctuations in determining how magnetic field lines meander throughout the heliosphere, and the role of interstellar pickup ions in perturbing the solar wind in the outer heliosphere.

Description: At 23:08 UT on 5 June 2007 the MESSENGER spacecraft reached its closest approach altitude (338 krn) during its second flyby of Venus en route to its 201 1 orbit insertion at Mercury. Whereas no measurements were collected during MESSENGER'S first Venus flyby in October 2006, the Magnetometer (MAG) and the Energetic Particle and Plasma Spectrometer (EPPS) operated successfully throughout this second encounter. Venus provides the solar system's best example to date of a solar wind - ionosphere planetary interaction. Pioneer Venus Orbiter measurements have shown that this interaction affects the upper atmosphere and ionosphere down to altitudes of - 150 km. Here we present an initial overview of the MESSENGER observations during the - 4 hrs that the spacecraft spent within 10 planet radii of Venus and, together with Venus Express measurements, examine the influence of solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field conditions on the solar wind interaction at solar minimum.

Description: From time to time the density of the Solar Wind falls below unity for a day or so. Despite studies of these events, their cause has not been established. In the solar wind there are frequent rarefactions but these are much shallower than the ones we are discussing here. In particular any role that CMEs might play in forming more extreme rarefactions is not clear . We discuss 9 cases of extreme events, leading to sub-alfvenic flow and well observed by Wind, which occurred between 1999 and 2002, and look for corresponding CME events in the LASCO cotalog. The catalog gives a fitted speed , good out to 20 Rs ,as well as a speed lower down in the corona, and this is used to distinguish between a CME and an ICME. We find one of the events ,which was simulated by Usmanov et al.,cannot be associated with an ICME. The other eight events can plausibly be associated with fast ICMEs, identified by the prescence of bi-streaming electrons also seen by Wind SWE, and by other phenomena The implications of these observations are discussed but do not seem to be conclusive as to the cause of the extreme rarefactions.

Description: Reviews examples of eruptions and failed eruptions of filaments and CMEs and review questions concerning the processes and mechanisms involved. Where and how does disconnection occur? What can we learn (if anything!) about CME eruptions by observing related filament eruptions?

Description: The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts an ever growing inventory of models to support the research activities of the Heliophysics community.In this poster we detail this model inventory. We describe the manner in which the CCMC provides access to these models to the community. This support includes model runs driven with archived data and 'realtime' runs which update as the latest data is ingested by the models. It includes runs for individual researchers and in support of observational planning and analysis for a number of flight missions. Our need to integrate the data streams into and out of numerous models and graphics packages has led to the development of a number of infra-structure component that are also highly relevant to the design of the VHGO. We discuss this issue and the natural and vital link that must develop between the VHGO and modeling centers such as the CCMC, if the usefulness of the VHGO is to be maximized.

Description: The primary advantage of Virtual Observatories in scientific research is efficiency: rapid searches for and access to data in convenient forms makes it possible to explore scientific questions without spending days or weeks on ancilary tasks. The Virtual Space Physics Observatory provides a general portal to Heliophysics data for this task. Here we will illustrate the advantages of the VO approach by examining specific geomagnetically active times and tracing the activity through the Sun-Earth system. In addition to previous and additional data sources, we will demonstrate an extension of the capabilities to allow searching for model run results from the range of CCMC models. This approach allows the user to quickly compare models and observations at a qualitative level; considerably more work will be needed to develop more seamless connections to data streams and the equivalent numerical output from simulations.

Description: Previous studies have shown that the power spectra of the magnetic field and velocity in the solar wind do not evolve in the same way with heliocentric distance. In particular, the velocity spectrum remains flatter for a substantial distance. However, Voyager observations of the velocity spectrum have demonstrated a likely asymptotic state in which the spectrum steepens to having a spectral index of -5/3, finally matching the magnetic spectrum and the theoretical expectation of Kolmogoroff turbulence. Here we examine evidence from other spacecraft, in particular studying Ulysses spectra to determine if the Voyager result, based on a very few sufficiently complete intervals, is correct. Preliminary results confirm the -5/3 slope for velocity fluctuations at -5 AU from the Sun in the ecliptic. We will examine many intervals to develop a more general picture of the spectral evolution in various conditions, and how magnetic and velocity spectra differ in these cases.

Description: We recently began development work on an integrated suite of models for slowly evolving solar active regions. In this presentation I will describe the design of this suite, highlight the challenges which this presents and discuss the implications of this design for the CCMC, to which a functional beta test version is to be delivered in three years.

Description: We have used wavelets to analyze the sunspot number, F10.7 (the solar irradiance at a wavelength of approx.10.7 cm), and Ap (a geomagnetic activity index). Three different wavelets are compared, showing how each selects either temporal or scale resolution. Our goal is an envelope of solar activity that better bounds the large amplitude fluctuations form solar minimum to maximum. We show how the 11-year cycle does not disappear at solar minimum, that minimum is only the other part of the solar cycle. Power in the fluctuations of solar-activity-related indices may peak during solar maximum but the solar cycle itself is always present. The Ap index has a peak after solar maximum that appears to be better correlated with the current solar cycle than with the following cycle.

Description: NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Program developed the first generation of solar sail propulsion systems sufficient to accomplish inner solar system science and exploration missions. These first generation solar sails, when operational, will range in size from 40 meters to well over 100 meters in diameter and have an area density of less than 13 grams per square meter. A rigorous, multi-year technology development effort culminated in 2005 with the testing of two different 20-m solar sail systems under thermal vacuum conditions. This effort provided a number of significant insights into the optimal design and expected performance of solar sails as well as an understanding of the methods and costs of building and using them. In addition, solar sail orbital analysis tools for mission design were developed and tested. Laboratory simulations of the effects of long-term space radiation exposure were also conducted on two candidate solar sail materials. Detailed radiation and charging environments were defined for mission trajectories outside the protection of the earth's magnetosphere, in the solar wind environment. These were used in other analytical tools to prove the adequacy of sail design features for accommodating the harsh space environment. The presentation will describe the status of solar sail propulsion within NASA, near-term solar sail mission applications, and near-term plans for further development.

Description: The spectra of low-energy cosmic-ray protons and antiprotons have been measured by BESS in nine high-latitude balloon flights between 1993 and 2004. These measurements span a range of solar activity from the previous solar minimum through solar ma〉:im%am and the onset of the present solar minimum, as well as a solar magnetic field reversal from positive to negative in 2000. Because protons and antiprotons differ only in charge sign, these simultaneous measurements provide a sensitive probe of charge dependent solar modulation. The antiproton to proton ratio measured by BESS is consistent with simple spherically symmetric models of solar modulation during the Sun's positive polarity phase, but favor charge-sign-dependent drift models during the negative phase. The BESS measurements will be presented and compared to various models of solar modulation.

Description: We present multi-wavelength observations of low level heating in an erupting prominence observed in the UV and EUV over a wide range of temperatures and wavelengths by SOHO's SUMER instrument, TRACE and also in H-alpha by the Yunnan Astronomical Observatory. The eruption occurred on 2004 April 30. The heating is relatively mild, leading only to the ionization of neutral hydrogen and probably helium. It is also localized, occurring along the bottom edge of the erupting prominence and in a kink-like feature in the prominence. The heating is revealed as a decrease in the Lyman absorption. This decrease results in an apparent increase in emission in all the lines observed by SUMER, especially those formed at temperatures approx. 10(exp 5). However, this is due to the disappearance of cooler absorbing material in the prominence rather than an increase in these higher temperature species.

Description: The Virtual Solar Observatory (VSO) is now able to search for solar data ranging from the radio to gamma rays, obtained from space and groundbased observatories, from 26 sources at 12 data providers, and from 1915 to the present. The solar physics community can use a Web interface or an Application Programming Interface (API) that allows integrating VSO searches into other software, including other Web services. Over the next few years, this integration will be especially obvious as the NASA Heliophysics division sponsors the development of a heliophysics-wide virtual observatory (VO), based on existing VO's in heliospheric, magnetospheric, and ionospheric physics as well as the VSO. We examine some of the challenges and potential of such a "meta-VO."

Description: Solar observations have tended to emphasize events like flares and CMEs, and what leads to these events. The past decade has seen an increasing emphasis on understanding the entire Sun, from the nuclear reactions at the core to the development and loss of magnetic loops in the corona. The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will return synoptic data, taken at a regular cadence and covering the entire Sun. This means you can still study events, but can also move forward to producing a quantitative model of what the Sun is doing today. The science investigations of SDO will determine how the Sun's magnetic field is generated and structured, how this stored magnetic energy is released into the heliosphere and geospace as the solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in the solar irradiance. How SDO data will transform the study of the Sun and the affect on stellar astrophysics will be discussed.

Description: We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Description: Using a three-dimensional MHD model, we simulate the global steady-state structure of the solar corona and solar wind for a dipole magnetic field on the Sun inclined by 30 degrees to the solar rotation axis. This represents the solar conditions typical for a declining phase of solar cycle. The computations can extend from the coronal base out to 100-AU and at large heliospheric distances includes the effects of interstellar neutral hydrogen and their interaction with solar wind protons. The simulations can model the formation of corotating interaction regions and the heliospheric current sheet. The simulations are also capable of describing very strong rarefaction regions that include embedded sub-Alfvenic regions that form on the trailing edge of a fast flows.

Description: The Goddard Medium Energy experiment on the IMP 8 spacecraft has made nearly continuous observations of the near-Earth energetic particle environment from its launch in October, 1973 until near present. We summarize several aspects of these observations, including solar energetic particle events, CIR-associated events, and cosmic ray modulations. In particular, we note that, as expected fiom the pattern of smaller recurrent (27 day) cosmic ray modulations seen in the mid 1980's A less than 0 solar minimum compared to the previous and following (A greater than 0) minima, recurrent modulations are again reduced in the current solar minimum.

Description: NASA's Genesis Mission launched from Cape Canaveral in August of 2001 with the goal of collecting solar wind in ultra-pure materials. The samples were returned to Earth more than three years later for subsequent analysis. Although the solar wind is comprised primarily of protons, it also contains ionized species representing the entire periodic table. The Genesis mission took advantage of the natural momentum of these ionized species to implant themselves in specialized collectors including single crystal Si and SiC. The collectors trapped the solar wind species of interest and sustained significant damage to the surface crystal structure as a result of the ion bombardment. In this work, spectroscopic ellipsometry has been used to evaluate the extent of this damage in Si and SiC samples. These results and models are compared for artificially implanted samples and pristine non-flight material. In addition, the flown samples had accumulated a thin film of molecular contamination as a result of outgassing in flight, and we demonstrate that this layer can be differentiated from the material damage. In addition to collecting bulk solar wind samples (continuous exposure), the Genesis mission actually returned silicon exposed to four different solar wind regimes: bulk, high speed, low speed, and coronal mass ejections. Each of these solar wind regimes varies in energy, but may vary in composition as well. While determining the composition is a primary goal of the mission, we are also interested in the variation in depth and extent of the damage layer as a function of solar wind regime. Here, we examine flight Si from the bulk solar wind regime and compare the results to both pristine and artificially implanted Si. Finally, there were four samples which were mounted in an electrostatic "concentrator" designed to reject a large fraction (〉85%) of incoming protons while enhancing the concentration of ions mass 4-28 amu by a factor of at least 20. Two of these samples were single crystal 6H silicon carbide. (The others were polycrystalline CVD diamond and amorphous carbon that were not examined in the work.) The ion damaged SiC samples from the concentrator were studied in comparison to the flight Si from the bulk array to understand differences in the extent of the damage.

Description: The MidSTAR-2 satellite, to be built at the US Naval Academy as a follow-on to the successful MidSTAR-1 satellite (http://web.ew.usna.edu/~midstar/), will launch in 2011 and carry three Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) experiments developed under Goddard's Internal Research and Development (IRAD) program. One of these GSFC instruments, the Miniature Imager for Neutral Ionospheric atoms and Magnetospheric Electrons (MINI-ME) builds on the heritage of the Goddard-developed Low-Energy Neutral Atom (LENA) imager launched on the IMAGE spacecraft in 2000. MINI-ME features a Venetian-blind conversion surface assembly that improves both light rejection and conversion efficiency in a smaller and lighter package than LENA making this an highly effective instrument for viewing solar wind charge exchange with terrestrial and planetary exospheres. We will describe the MINI-ME prototyping effort and its science targets.

Description: High charge state heavy ions in the solar wind exchange charge with ambient neutral gas. This process creates a product ion in an excited state. During the radiative cascade process, EUV and X-ray photons are emitted with energies in the range of about 100 eV to 1 keV. Because the terrestrial exospheric density at the nominal magnetopause location is relatively high, approx. 10 cu cm, solar wind charge exchange, or SWCX, can be observed by Earth-orbiting soft X-ray instruments such as the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counters (PSPC). In this presentation, we will compare simulated and observed soft Xray emission during an event on August 18-19, 1991 and discuss the role of exospheric SWCX emission for this and other events.

Description: The northern and southern cusps play an important role in the overall solar wind-magnetosphere- ionosphere interaction. Optical, radar, and ground magnetometer observations of transient events in the dayside auroral oval provide strong evidence for bursty reconnection on the dayside magnetopause occurring along extended reconnection lines during periods of southward and/or ecliptic IMF orientation. During periods of northward IMF orientation, the same ground-based observations provide evidence for reconnection on the magnetopause poleward of the cusps. Cluster observations in the cusp have confirmed the transition in reconnection locations from the dayside to the high-latitude magnetopause as a function of IMF orientation, while in situ observations of the dayside magnetopause indicate that bursty reconnection frequently generates transient events marked by symmetric bipolar magnetic field signatures normal to the nominal magnetopause and magnetic field strength enhancements. In this talk we review recent and invoke new results from analytical, two-dimensional hybrid, and three-dimensional MHD codes to describe the motion and fate of the newly-reconnected magnetic field lines within FTEs, with a view to predicting (I) the locations where events form, (2) the mechanism(s) by which they are generated, (3) their signatures on the dayside and flank magnetopause, (4) their antisunward motion, (5) their interaction with the cusps, and (6) their signatures in the dayside auroral oval, including their occurrence patterns as a function of season. We compare these predictions with observations, in particular the results of a statistical study of Interball-1 FTEs and new multipoint THEMIS observations of FTEs.

Description: Detailed observations of the plasma structure and irregularities that characterize the topside ionosphere at sub-auroral, middle, and low-latitudes are gathered with probes on the DEMETER and DMSP satellites. In particular, we present DEMETER observations near 700 km altitude that reveal: (1) the electric field irregularities and density depletions at mid-latitudes are remarkably similar to those associated with equatorial spread-F at low latitudes; (2) the mid-latitude density structures contain both depletions and enhancements with scale lengths along the spacecraft trajectory that typically vary from 10's to 100's of km; (3) in some cases, ELF magnetic field irregularities are observed in association with the electric field irregularities on the walls of the plasma density structures and appear to be related to finely-structured spatial currents and/or Alfven waves; (4) during severe geomagnetic storms, broad regions of nightside plasma density structures are typically present, in some instances extending from the equator to the subauroral regions; and (5) intense, broadband electric and magnetic field irregularities are observed at sub-auroral latitudes during geomagnetic storm periods that are typically associated with the trough region. Data from successive DEMETER orbits during storm periods in both the daytime and nighttime illustrate how enhancements of both the ambient plasma density, as well as sub-auroral and mid-latitude density structures, correlate and evolve with changes in the Dst. The DEMETER data are compared with near simultaneous observations gathered by the DMSP satellites near 840 km. The observations are related to theories of sub-auroral and mid-latitude plasma density structuring during geomagnetic storms and penetration electric fields and are highly germane to understanding space weather effects regarding disruption of communication and navigation signals in the near-space environment.

Description: R. J. Thompson (1993, Solar Physics 148, 383) exhibited a significant linear relationship between the number of geomagnetically disturbed days (those that exceed some threshold value of the Ap or nu index) in a solar cycle and the sum of the peak sunspot number in that cycle and the next cycle. Thus, the number of disturbed days during a full cycle, together with the peak sunspot number in that cycle, is a predictor of the amplitude of the next cycle. The work reported here applies Thompson's method to the current cycle. Linear relationships as described above are derived both for the pure aa record (1868-2006) and for a composite of aa (1868-1931) and Ap (1932-2006). For the composite record, the relationship between aa and Ap is determined cycle-by-cycle during the period of overlap. The method is tested for sensitivity to the adopted Ap (or equivalent aa) threshold. The highest smoothed monthly sunspot number for Cycle 24 is forecasted to be R(sub z) = 115 plus or minus 30, where the uncertainty is conservatively based on the full spread of the data around the fitted line in the sunspot number direction. In terms of smoothed monthly 10.7-cm radio flux, the forecast is F10.7 = 164 plus or minus 28.

Description: A sounding rocket instrument consisting of two vacuum ultraviolet Fabry-Perot filters in series would allow high-spectral resolution over an extended field of view for solar observations of the transition region between the chromosphere and the corona.

Description: Sunspots provided the first evidence for the 11-year cycle of solar activity and continue to provide key indicators of the level and nature of solar activity. Solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections increase in frequency as the number of sunspots increases during the rising phase of the solar cycle. The total irradiance of the Sun and its irradiance in ultraviolet light and x-rays also increase as the sunspot number increases. On the other hand, the flux of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth decreases as the sunspot number increases. These changes in the heliospheric environment produce significant effects on our environment. Our technological assets, in space, in the air, and on the ground, can be adversely affected by solar activity. Satellite drag, single-event upsets in electronic components, radio communication outages, power outages, and terrestrial climate can all be influenced by solar activity. In this lecture I will describe many of the significant characteristics of the solar cycle, their roots in solar magnetism, the mechanisms of the Sun's magnetic dynamo, and predictions for the amplitude and timing of next solar cycle.

Description: We examined the behavior of the areas of sunspot umbrae and penumbrae as reported daily by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) from May 1874 to December 1976. We calculated the ratio of the umbral area to the penumbral area (corrected for foreshortening as observed on the solar disc) for each sunspot group and for each day. We found: 1) that this ratio is about 0.2 on average, 2) that larger sunspot groups have slightly smaller ratios, 3) that there is a weak dependence on the phase of the solar cycle, 4) that there is no dependence on the latitude of the sunspot groups, and curiously 5) that for the smaller sunspot groups this ratio increased dramatically from about 1910 to 1930 and then returned to "normal" from 1930 to 1950. We examined other sunspot records to determine whether this behavior was an artifact of the RGO data and find evidence to indicate that the behavior was real. For the smaller sunspots (constituting the vast majority in both number and total area), the proportional size of the sunspot umbrae slowly increased by more than 50% and then returned to "normal" over this 40-year period.

Description: We present observations from Hinode, STEREO, and TRACE of a solar filament eruption and flare that occurred on 2007 March 2. Data from the two new satellites, combined with the TRACE observations, give us fresh insights into the eruption onset process. HINODE/XRT shows soft X-ray (SXR) activity beginning approximately 30 minutes prior to ignition of bright flare loops. STEREO andTRACE images show that the filament underwent relatively slow motions coinciding with the pre-eruption SXR brightenings, and it underwent rapid eruptive motions beginning near the time of flare onset. Concurrent HINODE/SOT magnetograms showed substantial flux cancelation under the filament at the site of the pre-eruption SXR activity. From these observations we infer that progressive tether-cutting reconnection driven by photospheric convection caused the slow rise of the filament and led to its eruption. NASA supported this work through a NASA Heliosphysics GI grant.

Description: The determination of the low-energy cutoff to nonthermal electron distributions is critical to the calculation of the nonthermal energy in solar flares. The most direct evidence for low-energy cutoffs is flattening of the power-law, nontherma1 X-ray spectra at low energies. However, because of the plasma preheating often seen in flares, the thermal emissions at low energies may hide such spectral flattening of the nonthermal component. We select a category of flares, which we call "early impulsive flares", in which the 〉 25 keV hard X-ray (HXR) flux increase is delayed by less than 30 s after the flux increase at lower energies. Thus, the plasma preheating in these flares is minimal, so the nonthermal spectrum can be determined to lower energies than in flares with significant preheating. Out of a sample of 33 early impulsive flares observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopy Imager (RHESSI), 9 showed spectral flattening toward low energies. In these events, the break energy of the double power-law fit to the HXR spectra lies in the range of 10-50 keV, significantly lower than the value we have seen for other flares that do not show such early impulsive emissions. In particular, it correlates with the HXR flux. After correcting the spatially-integrated spectra for albedo from isotropically emitted X-rays and using RHESSI imaging spectroscopy to exclude the extended albedo halo, we find that albedo associated with isotropic or nearly isotropic electrons can only account for the spectral flattening in 3 flares near Sun center. The spectral flattening in the remaining 6 flares is found to be consistent with the existence of a low-energy cutoff in the electron spectrum, falling in the range of 15-50 keV, which also correlates with the HXR flux.

Description: We model the effects of self-excitation/damping and shock transmission of Alfven waves on solar-energetic-particle (SEP) acceleration at a coronal-mass-ejection (CME) driven parallel shock. SEP-excited outward upstream waves speedily bootstrap acceleration. Shock transmission further raises the SEP-excited wave intensities at high wavenumbers but lowers them at low wavenumbers through wavenumber shift. Downstream, SEP excitation of inward waves and damping of outward waves tend to slow acceleration. Nevertheless, 〉 2000 km/s parallel shocks at approx. 3.5 solar radii can accelerate SEPs to 100 MeV in 〈 5 minutes.

Description: The basic concept of managing Earth's radiation budget is to reduce the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth so as to counterbalance the heating of the Earth that would otherwise result from the accumulation of greenhouse gases. The workshop did not seek to decide whether or under what circumstances solar radiation management should be deployed or which strategies or technologies might be best, if it were deployed. Rather, the workshop focused on defining what kinds of information might be most valuable in allowing policy makers more knowledgeably to address the various options for solar radiation management.

Description: The melt season of the Arctic sea ice cover is greatly affected by the partitioning of the incident solar radiation between reflection to the atmosphere and absorption in the ice and ocean. This partitioning exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability. Data in the period 1998, 2000-2004 were analyzed in this study. Observations made during the 1997-1998 SHEBA (Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) field experiment showed a strong seasonal dependence of the partitioning, dominated by a five-phase albedo evolution. QuikSCAT scatterometer data from the SHEBA region in 1999-2004 were used to further investigate solar partitioning in summer. The time series of scatterometer data were used to determine the onset of melt and the beginning of freezeup. This information was combined with SSM/I-derived ice concentration, TOVS-based estimates of incident solar irradiance, and SHEBA results to estimate the amount of solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system for these years. The average total solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system from April through September was 900 MJ m(sup -2). There was considerable interannual variability, with a range of 826 to 1044 MJ m(sup -2). The total amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean was strongly related to the date of melt onset, but only weakly related to the total duration of the melt season or the onset of freezeup. The timing of melt onset is significant because the incident solar energy is large and a change at this time propagates through the entire melt season, affecting the albedo every day throughout melt and freezeup.

Description: The "Smart Adaptive Structures for Solar Sailcraft" development activity at MSFC has investigated issues associated with understanding how to model and scale the subsystem and multi-body system dynamics of a gossamer solar sailcraft with the objective of designing sailcraft attitude control systems. This research and development activity addressed three key tasks that leveraged existing facilities and core competencies of MSFC to investigate dynamics and control issues of solar sails. Key aspects of this effort included modeling and testing of a 30 m deployable boom; modeling of the multi-body system dynamics of a gossamer sailcraft; investigation of control-structures interaction for gossamer sailcraft; and development and experimental demonstration of adaptive control technologies to mitigate control-structures interaction.

Description: This report addresses both these features new science enabled by NASAs exploration initiative and enabling science that is critical to ensuring a safe return to the Moon and onward to Mars. The areas of interest are structured into four main themes: Theme 1: Heliophysics Science of the Moon Studies of the Moons unique magnetodynamic plasma environment. Theme 2: Space Weather, Safeguarding the Journey Studies aimed at developing a predictive capability for space weather hazards. Theme 3: The Moon as a Historical Record Studies of the variation of the lunar regolith to uncover the history of the Sun, solar system, local interstellar medium, galaxy, and universe. Theme 4: The Moon as a Heliophysics Science Platform Using the unique environment of the lunar surface as a platform to provide observations beneficial to advancing heliophysics science.

Description: A simplified nonlinear numerical model for the development of incompressible magnetohydrodynamics in the presence of a strong magnetic field B|| and stratification, nicknamed 'Shell-Atm,' is presented. In planes orthogonal to the mean field, the nonlinear incompressible dynamics is replaced by two-dimensional shell models for the complex variables u and b, allowing one to reach large Reynolds numbers while at the same time carrying out sufficiently long integrations to obtain good statistics at moderate computational cost. The shell models of different planes are coupled by Alfve'n waves propagating along B||. The model may be applied to open or closed magnetic field configurations where the axial field dominates and the plasma pressure is low; here we apply it to the specific case of a magnetic loop of the solar corona heated by means of turbulence driven by photospheric motions, and we use statistics for its analysis. The Alfven waves interact nonlinearly and form turbulent spectra in the directions perpendicular and, through propagation, also parallel to the mean field. A heating function is obtained and shown to be intermittent; the average heating is consistent with values required for sustaining a hot corona and is proportional to the aspect ratio of the loop to the -1.5 power, and haracteristic properties of heating events are distributed as power laws. Crosscorrelations show a delay of dissipation compared with energy content.

Description: We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Description: Space Solar Power (SSP), combined with Wireless Power Transmission (WPT), offers the far-term potential to solve major energy problems on Earth. In this presentation, two basic WPT options, using radio waves an d light waves, are considered for both long-term and near-term SSP applications. In the long-term, we aspire to beam energy to Earth from geostationary Earth orbit (GEO), or even further distances in space. Accordingly, radio- and light- wave WPT options are compared through a wide range of criteria, each showing certain strengths. In the near-term, we plan to beam power over more moderate distances, but still stretch the limits of today's technology. For the near-term, a 100 kWe-class "Power Plug" Satellite and a 10 kWe-class Lunar Polar Solar Power outpost are considered as the first steps in using these WPT options for SSP. By using SSP and WPT technology in nearterm space science and exploration missions, we gain experience needed for sound decisions in designing and developing larger systems to send power from Space to Earth.

Description: Deviations from the direction of the "Parker spiral" can be found in in situ measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field on essentially all scales. One intriguing subset is the intervals of near-radial magnetic field, lasting for many hours. Some such intervals are obviously associated with coronal mass ejections, while others appear to be embedded within the ambient solar wind. Most occur on declining speed profiles, such that, when mapped back to the Sun, an entire radial field interval appears to have been launched at approximately the same time. It has been proposed that these events are the result of abrupt, semipermanent speed decreases on these field lines close to the Sun, and that such speed changes might be due to interchange reconnection. In this study, we use a three-dimensional, time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model to assess to what extent this can account for near-radial magnetic fields observed relatively far out in the heliosphere. We find that sudden speed drops on the trailing portions of high-speed flows can produce strongly underwound (that is near radial) field lines in the heliosphere, although significantly larger speed gradients are required than are typically observed. Moreover, the simulations also reproduce the decreases in density, temperature, and magnetic field strength that are also commonly observed within these events. The question of what produces the abrupt speed drops remains to be answered.

Description: We describe the use of a three-dimensional MHD model to predict the s tructure of the corona prior to the total solar eclipse of March 29, 2006. The calculation uses the observed photospheric radial magnetic f ield as a boundary condition. We use a new version of our model that has an improved description of energy transport in the corona. The mo del allows us to predict the emission of X-ray and EUV radiation in t he corona. We compare the predicted polarization brightness in the co rona with four observations of the eclipse from Greece, Egypt, and Li bya, and we demonstrate that the model accurately predicts the largescale structure of the corona. We also compare X-ray emission from the model with GOES/SXI images.

Description: Posteruptive arcades are frequently seen in the aftermath of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The formation of these loops at successively higher altitudes, coupled with the classic "two-ribbon" flare seen in H-alpha, are interpreted as reconnection of the coronal magnetic field that has been dragged outward by the CME. White-light observations of "rays," which have been interpreted as being coincident with the current sheet at the reconnection site underneath the erupting CME, also provide evidence for its occurrence. "Blobs" occasionally seen within these rays suggest an even richer level of structure. In this report, we present numerical simulations that reproduce both the observed rays and the formation and evolution of the blobs. We compare their properties with SOHO/LASCO observations of similar structures, and relate their formation to standard theories of reconnection,

Description: A viewgraph presentation describing a solar wind substrate alteration on Genesis' melted and fused materials and hydrogen ion diffusion at L1 is shown.

Description: A novel silicon detector configuration for radiation dose measurements in an environment where solar energetic particles are of most concern is described. The dosimeter would also measure the dose from galactic cosmic rays. In the lunar environment a large range in particle flux and ionization density must be measured and converted to dose equivalent. This could be accomplished with a thick (e.g. 2mm) silicon detector segmented into cubic volume elements "voxels" followed by a second, thin monolithic silicon detector. The electronics needed to implement this detector concept include analog signal processors (ASIC) and a field programmable gate array (FPGA) for data accumulation and conversion to linear energy transfer (LET) spectra and to dose-equivalent (Sievert). Currently available commercial ASIC's and FPGA's are suitable for implementing the analog and digital systems.

Description: We have begun an investigation of the nature of the low-latitude boundary layer in the mid-altitude cusp region using data from the Polar spacecraft. Magnetosheath-like plasma is frequently observed deep (in terms of distance from the magnetopause and in invariant latitude) in the magnetosphere. One such case, taken during a long period of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMP) on March 18, 2006, shows injected magnetosheath ions within the magnetosphere with velocity distributions resulting from two separate merging sites along the same field lines. Cold ionospheric ions were also observed counterstreaming along the field lines, evidence that these field lines were closed. Our results support the idea of double reconnection under northward IMP on the same group of field lines can provide a source for the LLBL. However, the flow direction of the accelerated magnetosheath ions antiparallel to the local magnetic field and given location of the spacecraft suggest that these two injection sites are located northward of the spacecraft position. Observed convection velocities of the magnetic field lines are inconsistent with those expected for double post-cusp reconnection in both hemispheres. These observations favor a scenario in which a group of newly closed field lines was created by a combination of high shear merging at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere and low shear merging at lower latitudes at the dayside magnetopause.

Description: The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is planned to launch in early 2009 as a mission to study the solar variability and its impact on Earth. To best satisfy its science goal, SDO will fly in a geosynchronous orbit with an inclination of approximately 29 deg. The spacecraft attitude is designed so that the science instruments point directly at the Sun with high accuracy. One of SDO's principal requirements is to obtain long periods of uninterrupted observations. The observations have an extremely high data volume so SDO must be in continuous contact with the ground during the observation periods. To maintain this contact, SDO is equipped with a pair of high gain antennas (HGAs) transmitting to a pair of ground antennas at the SDO ground station (SDOGS) located in White Sands, New Mexico. Either HGA can transmit to either SDOGS antenna. Neither HGA can be powered down. During a portion of each year, each of the HGA beams will intersect with the SDO body for a portion of the orbit. The original SDO antenna contact plan used each HGA for the half of each year during which its beam would not intersect the spacecraft. No data would be lost except, possibly, when switching from one antenna to another. After this plan was adopted, further analysis showed that daily handovers would be necessary for significant periods of the year. This unexpected need for extensive handovers necessitated that a handover design be developed to minimize the impact on the mission. This antenna handover design was developed and successfully tested with simulated data using the slew rate limits from preliminary jitter analysis. Subsequent analysis provided significant revision of allowed rates requiring modification of the handover plans.

Description: During quadrature, plasma seen on the limb of the Sun, along the radi al direction to Ulysses, by SOHO or STEREO can be sampled in situ as lt later passes Ulysses. A figure shows a coronagraph image, the rad ial towards Ulysses at 58 deg. S. and the SOHO/UVCS slit positions d uring one set of observations. A CME subsequently occurred and passed Ulysses (at 3/4 AU) 15 days later.

Description: The Heliostorm (also referred to as Geostorm) mission has been regarded as the best choice for the first application of solar sail technology. The objective of Heliostorm is to obtain data from an orbit station slightly displaced from the ecliptic at or nearer to the Sun than 0.98 AU, which places it twice as dose to the sun as Earth's natural L1 point at 0.993 AU. The maintenance of such an orbit location would require prohibitive amounts of propellants using chemical or electric propulsion systems; however, a solar sailcraft is ideally suited for this purpose because it relies solely on the propulsive force from photons for orbit maintenance. Heliostorm has been the subject of several mission studies over the past decade, with the most complete study conducted in 1999 in conjunction with a proposed New Millennium Program (NMP) Space Technology 5 (ST-5) flight opportunity. Recently, over a two and one-half year period dating from 2003 through 2005, NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Program (ISTP) matured solar sail technology from laboratory components to full systems, demonstrated in as relevant a space environment as could feasibly be simulated on the ground. Work under this program has yielded promising results for enhanced Heliostorm mission performance. This enhanced performance is achievable principally through reductions in the sail areal density. These reductions are realized through the use of lower linear mass density booms, a thinner sail membrane, and increased sail area. Advancements in sailcraft vehicle system design also offer potential mass reductions and hence improved performance. This paper will present the preliminary results of an updated Heliostorm mission design study including the enhancements incorporated during the design, development, analysis and testing of the system ground demonstrator.

Description: A streamer puff is a recently identified variety of coronal mass ejection (CME) of narrow to moderate width. It (1) travels our along a streamer, transiently inflating the streamer but leaving it largely intact, and (2) occurs in step with a compact ejective flare in an outer flank of the base of the streamer. These aspects suggest the following magnetic-arch-blowout scenario for the production of these CMEs: the magnetic explosion that produces the flare also produces a plasmoid that explodes up the leg of an outer loop of the arcade base of the streamer, blows out the top of this loop, and becomes the core of the CME. In this paper, we present a streamer-puff CME that produced a coronal-dimming footprint. The coronal dimming, its magnetic setting, and the timing and magnetic setting of a strong compact ejective flare within the dimming footprint nicely confirm the magnetic-arch-blowout scenario. From these observations, together with several published cases of a trans-equatorial CME produced in tandem with an ejective flare or filament eruption that was far offset from directly under the CME, we propose the following. Streamer-puff CMEs are a subclass (one variety) of a broader class of "over-and-out" CMEs that are often much larger than streamer puffs but are similar to them in that they are produced by the blowout of a large quasi-potential magnetic arch by a magnetic explosion that erupts from one foot of the large arch, where it is marked by a filament eruption and/or an ejective flare.

Description: The solar wind couples to the magnetosphere via dynamic pressure and electric field. Pressure establishes the size and shape of the system, while the electric field transfers energy, mass, and momentum to the magnetosphere. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is antiparallel to the dayside magnetic field, magnetic reconnection connects the IMF to the dipole field. Solar wind transport of the newly opened field lines to the nightside creates an internal convection system. These open field lines must ultimately be closed by reconnection on the nightside. For many decades, it was thought that a magnetospheric substorm was the process for accomplishing this and that all magnetic activity was a consequence of substorms. It is now recognized that there are a variety of modes of response of the magnetosphere to the solar wind. In this paper, we briefly describe these modes and the conditions under which they occur. They include substorms, pseudo-breakups, poleward boundary intensifications (PBI), steady magnetospheric convection (SMC), sawtooth injection events, magnetic storms, high-intensity long-duration continuous AE activities (HILDCAAs), and storm-time activations. There are numerous explanations for these different phenomena, some of which do not involve magnetic reconnection. However, we speculate that it is possible to interpret each mode in terms of differences in the way magnetic reconnection occurs on the nightside.

Description: Photospheric observations at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) represent an uninterrupted data set of 32 years and are therefore unique for modeling variations in the magnetic structure of the corona and inner heliosphere over three solar cycles. For many years, modelers have applied a latitudinal correction factor to these data, believing that it provided a better estimate of the line-of-sight magnetic field. Its application was defended by arguing that the computed open flux matched observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly better than the original WSO correction factor. However, no physically based argument could be made for its use. In this Letter we explore the implications of using the constant correction factor on the value and variation of the computed open solar flux and its relationship to the measured IMF. We find that it does not match the measured IMF at 1 AU except at and surrounding solar minimum. However, we argue that interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) may provide sufficient additional magnetic flux to the extent that a remarkably good match is found between the sum of the computed open flux and inferred ICME flux and the measured flux at 1 AU. If further substantiated, the implications of this interpretation may be significant, including a better understanding of the structure and strength of the coronal field and I N providing constraints for theories of field line transport in the corona, the modulation of galactic cosmic rays, and even possibly terrestrial climate effects.

Description: We report the results of a search for waves/turbulence in the Heliospheric Plasma Sheet (HPS) surrounding the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS). The HPS is treated as a distinctive heliospheric structure distinguished by relatively high Beta, slow speed plasma. The data used in the investigation are from a previously published study of the thicknesses of the HPS and HCS that were obtained in January to May 2004 when Ulysses was near aphelion at 5 AU. The advantage of using these data is that the HPS is thicker at large radial distances and the spacecraft spends longer intervals inside the plasma sheet. From the study of the magnetic field and solar wind velocity components, we conclude that, if Alfven waves are present, they are weak and are dominated by variations in the field magnitude, B, and solar wind density, NP, that are anti-correlated.

Description: This paper will describe the objectives of the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation (SUMI) and the unique optical components that have been developed to meet those objectives. A sounding rocket payload has been developed to test the feasibility of magnetic field measurements in the Sun's transition region. The optics have been optimized for simultaneous measurements of two magnetic sensitive lines formed in the transition region (CIV at 1550 A and MgII at 2800 A). This paper will concentrate on the polarization properties SUMI's toroidal varied-line-space (TVLS) gratings and its system level testing as we prepare to launch in the Summer of 2008.

Description: We present measurements of toroidal variable-line-space (TVLS) gratings for the Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation (SUMI), currently being developed at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC). SUMI is a spectro-polarimeter designed to measure magnetic fields in the solar chromosphere by observing two UV emission lines sensitive to magnetic fields, the CIY line at 155nm and the MgII line at 280nm. The instrument uses a pair of TVLS gratings, to observe both linear polarizations simultaneously. Efficiency measurements were done on bare aluminum gratings and aluminum/MgF2 coated gratings, at both linear polarizations.

Description: We show that the strength of the magnetic field in the area covered by the flare arcade following a CME-producing ejective solar eruption can be estimated from the final angular width of the CME in the outer corona and the final angular width of the flare arcade. We assume (1) the flux-rope plasmoid ejected from the flare site becomes the interior of the CME plasmoid, (2) in the outer corona the CME is roughly a "spherical plasmoid with legs" shaped like a light bulb, and (3) beyond some height in or below the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure balance with the surrounding magnetic field. The strength of the nearly radial magnetic field in the outer corona is estimated from the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Ulysses. We apply this model to three well-observed CMEs that exploded from flare regions of extremely different size and magnetic setting. In each event, the estimated source-region field strength is appropriate for the magnetic setting of the flare. This agreement indicates via the model that CMEs (1) are propelled by the magnetic field of the CME plasmoid pushing against the surrounding magnetic field, and (2) can explode from flare regions that are laterally far offset from the radial path of the CME in the outer corona.

Description: We use Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) filtergraph (FG) Stokes-V magnetogram observations, to study the early onset of a solar eruption that includes an erupting filament that we observe in TRACE EUV images. The filament undergoes a slow rise for about 20 min prior to its fast eruption and strong soft X-ray flaring, and the new Hinode data elucidate the physical processes occurring during the slow-rise period. Magnetic flux cancellation occurs along the neutral line of the filament, beginning several hours before eruption. During the slow-rise phase, a soft X-ray (SXR) sigmoid forms from apparent reconnection low in the sheared core field traced by the filament, and there is a low-level intensity peak in both EUV and SXRs at the start of the slow rise.

Description: We consider processes occurring just prior to and at the start of the onset of flare- and CME-producing solar eruptions. Our recent work uses observations of filament motions around the time of eruption onset as a proxy for the evolution of the fields involved in the eruption. Frequently the filaments show a slow rise prior to fast eruption, indicative of a slow expansion of the field that is about co explode. Work by us and others suggests that reconnection involving emerging or canceling flux results in a lengthening of fields restraining the filament-carrying field, and the consequent upward expansion of the field in and around the filament produces the filament's slow rise: that is, the reconnection weakens the magnetic "tethers" ("tether-weakening" reconnection), and results in the slow rise of the filament. It is still inconclusive, however, what mechanism is responsible for the switch from the slow rise to the fast eruption.

Description: We present the results of an investigation of the sequence of events from the Sun to the Earth that ultimately led to the 88 major geomagnetic storms (defined by minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) that occurred during 1996 - 2005. The results are achieved through cooperative efforts that originated at the Living with a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data- Analysis Workshop (CDAW) held at George Mason University in March 2005. Based on careful examination of the complete array of solar and in-situ solar wind observations, we have identified and characterized, for each major geomagnetic storm, the overall solar-interplanetary (solar-IP) source type, the time, velocity and angular width of the source coronal mass ejection (CME), the type and heliographic location of the solar source region, the structure of the transient solar wind flow with the storm-driving component specified, the arrival time of shock/disturbance, and the start and ending times of the corresponding IP CME (ICME). The storm-driving component, which possesses a prolonged and enhanced southward magnetic field (B(sub s)) may be an ICME, the sheath of shocked plasma (SH) upstream of an ICME, a corotating interaction region (CIR), or a combination of these structures. We classify the Solar-IP sources into three broad types: (1) S-type, in which the storm is associated with a single ICME and a single CME at the Sun; (2) M-type, in which the storm is associated with a complex solar wind flow produced by multiple interacting ICMEs arising from multiple halo CMEs launched from the Sun in a short period; (3) C-type, in which the storm is associated with a CIR formed at the leading edge of a high speed stream originating from a solar coronal hole (CH). For the 88 major storms, the S-type, M-type and C-type events number 53 (60%): 24 (27%) and 11 (13%), respectively. For the 85 events for which the surface source regions could be investigated, 54 (63%) of the storms originated in solar active regions, 10 (12%) in quiet Sun regions associated with quiescent filaments or filament channels, and 11 (13%) were associated with coronal holes. Remarkably, 10 (12%) CME-driven events showed no sign of eruptive features on the surface (e.g., no flare, no coronal dimming, and no loop arcade, etc), even though all the available solar observation in a suitable time period were carefully examined. Thus, while it is generally true that a major geomagnetic storm is more likely to be driven by a front-side fast halo CME associated with a major flare, our study indicates a broad distribution of source properties. The implications of the results for space weather forecasting are briefly discussed.

Description: The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), the third mission in NASA's Solar Terrestrial Probes program, was launched in 2006 on a two year mission to study solar phenomena. STEREO consists of two nearly identical satellites, each carrying an Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUVI) telescope as part of the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation instrument suite. EUVI is a normal incidence, 98mm diameter, Ritchey-Chretien telescope designed to obtain wide field of view images of the Sun at short wavelengths (17.1-30.4nm) using a CCD detector. The telescope entrance aperture is divided into four quadrants by a mask near the secondary mirror spider veins. A mechanism that rotates another mask allows only one of these sub-apertures to accept light over an exposure. The EUVI contains no focus mechanism. Mechanical models predict a difference in telescope focus between ambient integration conditions and on-orbit operation. We describe an independent check of the ambient, ultraviolet, absolute focus setting of the EUVI telescopes after they were integrated with their respective spacecraft. A scanning Hartmann-like test design resulted from constraints implied by the EUVI aperture select mechanism. This inexpensive test was simultaneously coordinated with other NASA integration and test activities in a high-vibration, clean room environment. The total focus test error was required to be better than +/-0.05 mm. We describe the alignment and test procedure, sources of statistical and systematic error, and then the focus determination results using various algorithms. The results are consistent with other tests of focus alignment and indicate that the EUVI telescopes meet the ambient focus offset requirements. STEREO is functioning well on-orbit and the EUVI telescopes meet their on-orbit image quality requirements.

Description: The study of magnetic connectivity in the solar corona reveals a need to generalize the field line mapping technique to arbitrary geometry of the boundaries and systems of coordinates. Indeed, the global description of the connectivity in the corona requires the use of the photospheric and solar wind boundaries. Both are closed surfaces and therefore do not admit a global regular system of coordinates. At least two overlapping regular systems of coordinates for each of the boundaries are necessary in this case to avoid spherical-pole-like singularities in the coordinates of the footpoints. This implies that the basic characteristic of magnetic connectivity-the squashing degree or factor Q of elemental flux tubes, according to Titov and coworkers-must be rewritten in covariant form. Such a covariant expression of Q is derived in this work. The derived expression is very flexible and highly efficient for describing the global magnetic connectivity in the solar corona. In addition, a general expression for a new characteristic Q1, which defines a squashing of the flux tubes in the directions perpendicular to the field lines, is determined. This new quantity makes it possible to filter out the quasi-separatrix layers whose large values of Q are caused by a projection effect at the field lines nearly touching the photosphere. Thus, the value Q1 provides a much more precise description of the volumetric properties of the magnetic field structure. The difference between Q and Q1 is illustrated by comparing their distributions for two configurations, one of which is the Titov-Demoulin model of a twisted magnetic field.

Description: This presentation describes what kind of heliospheric problems can be solved with simultaneous observations of spatially separated sound signals on the Sun. It is based on previously published work.

Description: The solar wind reflects the composition of the Sun and physical processes in the corona. Analysis produces information on how the solar system was formed and on physical processes in the corona. The analysis can also produce information on the local interstellar medium, galactic evolution, comets in the solar wind, dust in the heliosphere, and matter escaping from planets.

Description: Solar cells operating on the surface of Mars receive a spectrum of illumination different from the AM0 spectrum, since the sunlight is filtered by dust suspended in the atmosphere. This spectrum changes with the amount of dust in the atmosphere, as well as with air mass change due to time of day and season. This spectral variation affects the performance of solar cells. We used data from Mars Exploration Rovers to measure this spectrum. By comparing the measured intensity with the known reflectance of the pancam calibration target on the rovers Spirit and Opportunity, we measure the solar spectrum reaching the surface. The effect of this spectrum on the performance of solar cells is then calculated based on the spectral response of several different solar cell types.

Description: Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite measurements of the galactic cosmic ray flux and correlation with the Climax Neutron Monitor count over Solar Cycle 23 are used to update the Badhwar O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) model.

Description: For a number of impulsive solar particle events we examine variations of maximum intensities and times to maximum intensity as a function of longitude, using observations from the two Helios spacecraft and near the Earth. We find that electrons in the MeV range can be detected more than 80 deg. from the flare longitude, corresponding to a considerably wider "well connected" region than that (approx. 20 deg. half width) reported for He-3-rich impulsive solar events. This wide range and the decrease of peak intensities with increasing connection angle revive the concept of some propagation process in the low corona that has a diffusive nature. Delays to the intensity maximum are not systematically correlated with connection angles. We argue that interplanetary scattering parallel to the average interplanetary magnetic field, that varies with position in space, plays an important role in flare particle events. In a specific case variations of the time profiles with radial distance and with particle rigidity are used to quantitatively confirm spatial diffusion. For a few cases near the edges of the well connected region the very long times to maximum intensity might result from interplanetary lateral transport.

Description: On the basis of the 12-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number (R) through November 2006, cycle 23 has persisted for 126 mo, having had a minimum of 8.0 in May 1996, a peak of 120.8 in April 2000, and an ascent duration of 47 mo. In November 2006, the 12-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number was 12.7, a value just outside the upper observed envelope of sunspot minimum values for the most recent cycles 16-23 (range 3.4-12.3), but within the 90-percent prediction interval (7.8 +/- 6.7). The first spotless day during the decline of cycle 23 occurred in January 2004, and the first occurrence of 10 or more and 20 or more spotless days was February 2006 and April 2007, respectively, inferring that sunspot minimum for cycle 24 is imminent. Through May 2007, 121 spotless days have accumulated. In terms of the weighted mean latitude (weighed by spot area) (LAT) and the highest observed latitude spot (HLS) in November 2006, 12-mo moving averages of these parameters measured 7.9 and 14.6 deg, respectively, these values being the lowest values yet observed during the decline of cycle 23 and being below corresponding mean values found for cycles 16-23. As yet, no high-latitude new-cycle spots have been seen nor has there been an upturn in LAT and HLS, these conditions having always preceded new cycle minimum by several months for past cycles. Together, these findings suggest that cycle 24 s minimum amplitude still lies well beyond November 2006. This implies that cycle 23 s period either will lie in the period "gap" (127-134 mo), a first for a sunspot cycle, or it will be longer than 134 mo, thus making cycle 23 a long-period cycle (like cycle 20) and indicating that cycle 24 s minimum will occur after July 2007. Should cycle 23 prove to be a cycle of longer period, a consequence might be that the maximum amplitude for cycle 24 may be smaller than previously predicted.

Description: On 2008 August 01, a total eclipse of the Sun is visible from within a narrow corridor that traverses half the Earth. The path of the Moon's umbral shadow begins in northern Canada and extends across Greenland, the Arctic, central Russia, Mongolia, and China. A partial eclipse is seen within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which includes northeastern North America, most of Europe and Asia. Detailed predictions for this event are presented and include besselian elements, geographic coordinates of the path of totality, physical ephemeris of the umbra, topocentric limb profile corrections, local circumstances for 308 cities, maps of the eclipse path, weather prospects, the lunar limb profile and the sky during totality. Information on safe eclipse viewing and eclipse photography is included.

Description: A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

Description: Solar proton fluxes have been measured by satellites for over forty years (1963-present). Several satellites, including the Interplanetary Monitoring Platforms (1963-1993) and the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (1994-present), have been used to compile this long-term dataset. Some solar storms lead to solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth, which typically last a few days. High energy solar protons associated with SPEs precipitate on the Earth's atmosphere and cause increases in odd hydrogen (HO(x)) and odd nitrogen (NO(y)) in the polar cap region (〉60 degrees geomagnetic). The enhanced HO(x) leads to short-lived ozone depletion (-days) due to the short lifetime of HOx constituents. The enhanced NO(y) leads to long-lived ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NO(y) family in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Very large SPEs occurred in 1972, 1989, 2000, 2001, and 2003 and were predicted to cause significant polar upper stratospheric ozone depletion (〉10%), which lasted for several weeks past the events. Several satellite instruments (BUV, SBUV, SBUV/2, SAGE II, HALOE, SCIAMACHY, MIPAS, GOMOS, etc.) have measured ozone changes as a result of SPEs. The long-term influence of SPEs on ozone will be discussed in this presentation.

Description: The Extreme-Ultraviolet Normal-Incidence Spectrometer (EUNIS) is a soundingrocket payload that obtains imaged high-resolution spectra of individual solar features, providing information about the Sun's corona and upper transition region. Shortly after its successful initial flight last year, a complete end-to-end calibration was carried out to determine the instrument's absolute radiometric response over its Longwave bandpass of 300 - 370A. The measurements were done at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory (RAL) in England, using the same vacuum facility and EUV radiation source used in the pre-flight calibrations of both SOHO/CDS and Hinode/EIS, as well as in three post-flight calibrations of our SERTS sounding rocket payload, the precursor to EUNIS. The unique radiation source provided by the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) had been calibrated to an absolute accuracy of 7% (l-sigma) at 12 wavelengths covering our bandpass directly against the Berlin electron storage ring BESSY, which is itself a primary radiometric source standard. Scans of the EUNIS aperture were made to determine the instrument's absolute spectral sensitivity to +- 25%, considering all sources of error, and demonstrate that EUNIS-06 was the most sensitive solar E W spectrometer yet flown. The results will be matched against prior calibrations which relied on combining measurements of individual optical components, and on comparisons with theoretically predicted 'insensitive' line ratios. Coordinated observations were made during the EUNIS-06 flight by SOHO/CDS and EIT that will allow re-calibrations of those instruments as well. In addition, future EUNIS flights will provide similar calibration updates for TRACE, Hinode/EIS, and STEREO/SECCHI/EUVI.

Description: During SOHO-Sun-Ulysses quadratures the geometry of the configuration makes it possible to sample "in situ" the plasma parcels that are remotely observed in the corona. Although the quadrature position occurs at a well defined instant in time, we typically take data while Ulysses is within +/- 5 degrees of the limb, with the understanding that plasma sampled by Ulysses over this time interval can all be traced to its source in the corona. The relative positions of SOHO and Ulysses in winter 2007 (19 Dec 2006-28 May 2007) are unusual: the SOHO-Sun-Ulysses included angle is always between 85 and 95 degrees - the quadrature lasts for 5 months! This provides an opportunity for extended observations of specific observing objectives. In addition, in summer 2007, Ulysses (at 1.34 AU) is in near-radial alignment with Earth/ACE/Wind and SOHO, allowing us to analyze radial gradients and propagation in the solar wind and inner heliosphere. Our own quadrature campaigns rely heavily on LASCO and UVCS coronal observations: LASCO giving the overall context above 2 solar radii while the UVCS spectrograph acquired data from - 1.5 to, typically, 4-5 solar radii. In the past, coronal parameters have been derived from data acquired by these two experiments and compared with "in situ" data of Ulysses' SWOOPS and SWICS. Data from other experiments like EIT, CDS, SUMER, Sac Peak Fe XIV maps, magnetic field maps from the Wilcox solar magnetograph, MLSO, from MDI, and from the Ulysses magnetograph experiment have been, and will be, used to complement LASCO/UVCS/SWOOPS and SWICS data. We anticipate that observations by ACE/WIND/STEREO/Hinode and other missions will be relevant as well. During the IHY campaigns, Ulysses will be 52-80 degrees south in winter 2007, near sunspot minimum. Hence, our own scientific objective will be to sample high speed wind or regions of transition between slow and fast wind. This might be a very interesting situation - not met in previous quadratures - allowing us to study the variation of element abundances across streamer borders in the corona and,correspondingly, "in situ". Also, observing plasma over prolonged time intervals and at different latitudes, we may examine the latitude variation of the fractionation effect (e.g. Yon Steiger, 2002) and its dependence on time (e.g. Woo, 2004). For instance, if the FIP bias is dictated by the duration of plasma confinement in solar loops, its value in streamers should depend on the streamer age. Analogous variations should be found in the abundances of "in situ" plasma released by the streamer. All Ulysses and SOHO data is in the public domain and accessible so different objectives could be addressed by others. The winter 2008 quadrature will be well into the next sunspot cycle and there might be significant high mid-latitude activity. Ulysses will be up to 80 degrees in the northern hemisphere at this time and able to detect the resulting ICMEs and ejecta, allowing us to study the physical parameters of the propagating CME bubble/core/front, and/or to study the coronal and "in situ" characteristics of the current sheet associated with the event (e.g. Bemporad et al. 2005), so far still vaguely defined.

Description: The twin STEREO spacecraft were launched on October 26,2006 and, after spending several weeks in alignment orbits, became operational in heliocentric orbits on January 2 1,2007. The spacecraft are now in orbits similar to Earth's and are separating from each other at a rate of about 45 degrees per year as viewed from the sun. The STEREO spacecraft are each equipped with a complement of EUV, and white light imagers as well as particles and fields in situ instruments and a radio burst tracker. In addition to full resolution data downloaded once per day, each spacecraft broadcasts a real time telemetry 'beacon' stream containing compressed images and typically one minute averages of solar wind measurements and radio intensities. These real time data streams are received by a mix of NOAA and NASA-managed tracking stations and the data is transmitted by these stations to the STEREO Science Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center where they are processed into useable parameters with a latency of less than five minutes from receipt. As the two spacecraft recede from the sun-Earth line, triangulation of the imaging and radio measurements should allow better estimate of the speed and direction of coronal mass ejections, allowing a more precise estimate of their arrival at Earth. In situ particles and fields measurements, particularly for the spacecraft (Behind) trailing Earth in its orbit, will sample the solar wind that will eventually co-rotate around to the sun-Earth line. Late in the prime mission when the spacecraft are very far (〉90 degrees) from the sun-Earth line, observations from the Behind spacecraft, will be particularly valuable for providing a preview of active regions well beyond the sun's East limb (as seen from Earth). Continually updated STEREO space weather data can be viewed and downloaded at http:/lstereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.govldata/beacon/.

Description: Interplanetary coronal mass ejections, the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections at the Sun, are the major drivers of interplanetary shocks in the heliosphere, and are associated with modulations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, both short term (Forbush decreases caused by the passage of the shock, post-shock sheath, and ICME) and possibly with longer term modulation. Using several in-situ signatures of ICMEs, including plasma temperature, and composition, magnetic fields, and cosmic ray modulations, made by near-Earth spacecraft, we have compiled a "comprehensive" list of ICMEs passing the Earth since 1996, encompassing solar cycle 23. We summarize the properties of these ICMEs, such as their occurrence rate, speeds, association with solar energetic particle events, shocks and cosmic ray decreases.

Description: Alfven waves Propagating outward from the Sun are ubiquitous in the solar wind and play a major role in the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. The passage of the waves generally occurs in the form of a series of discrete steepened discontinuities, each of which results in an abrupt change in the interplanetary magnetic field direction. Some orientations of the magnetic field permit particles energized at the Earth's bow shock to gain access to the foreshock region immediately upstream from the Earth's bow shock. The thermal pressure associated with these particles can greatly perturb solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters shortly prior to their interaction with the Earth's bow shock and magnetosphere. The corresponding dynamic pressure variations batter the magnetosphere, driving magnetopause motion and transient compressions of the magnetospheric magnetic field. Alfven waves transmit information concerning the dynamic pressure variations applied to the magnetosphere to the ionosphere, where they generate the traveling convection vortices (TCVs) seen in high-latitude ground magnetograms. Finally, the sense of Alfvenic perturbations transmitted into the magnetosheath reverses across local noon because magnetosheath magnetic field lines drape against the magnetopause. The corresponding change in velocity perturbations must apply a weak torque to the Earth's magnetosphere.

Description: The solar wind shows striking characteristics that suggest that it is a turbulent magnetofluid, but the picture is not altogether simple. From the earliest observations, a strong correlation between magnetic fluctuations and plasma velocity fluctuations as noted. The high corrections suggest that the fluctuations are Alven waves. In addition, the power spectrum of the magnetic fluctuation showed evidence of an inertial range that resembled that seen in fully-developed fluid turbulence. Alfven waves, however, are exact solutions of the equations of an incompressible magnetohydrodynamics. Thus, there was a puzzle: how can a magnetofluid consisting of Alfven waves be turbulent? The answer lay in the role of velocity shears in the solar wind that could drive turbulent evolution. Puzzles remain: for example, the power spectrum of the velocity fluctuations is less steep than the slope of the magnetic fluctuations. The plasma in the magnetic tail of Earth's magnetosphere also shows aspects of turbulence, as does the plasma in the dayside magnetosphere near the poles--the so-called dayside cusps.

Description: It is well known that atmospheric density errors are the main source of uncertainty in orbit decay predictions. Perhaps less well known is the sensitivity of atmospheric density to solar activity. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of orbit decay predictions to realistic daily variations in solar flux. We present results from analysis of orbit decay prediction for a variety of orbits, initial epochs, and predicted smooth flux profiles. For each set of initial conditions, we simulate multiple sample flux profiles with simulated daily variations, and compute the orbital re-entry date for comparison.