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  • 1
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    Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 (2020)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2020-05-29
    Description: Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically relied on making assumptions about forced changes in the mean and variability. With the advent of multiple single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), these assumptions can be scrutinized, as they allow a more robust separation between sources of uncertainty. Here, the framework from Hawkins and Sutton (2009) for uncertainty partitioning is revisited for temperature and precipitation projections using seven SMILEs and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives. The original approach is shown to work well at global scales (potential method bias 
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 2
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    The effect of greenhouse gas concentrations and ice sheets on the glacial AMOC in a coupled climate model (2016)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-04-27
    Description: Simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) are used to study the sensitivity of the AMOC and the deep ocean water masses during the Last Glacial Maximum to different sets of forcings. Analysing the individual contributions of the glacial forcings reveals that the ice sheets cause an increase of the overturning strength and a deepening of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) cell, while the low greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations cause the overturning strength to decrease and the NADW cell to shoal. The effect of the orbital configuration is negligible. The effects of the ice sheets and the GHG reduction balance each other in the deep ocean so that no shoaling of the NADW cell is simulated in the full glacial state. Experiments in which different GHG concentrations with linearly decreasing radiative forcing are applied to a setup with glacial ice sheets and orbital configuration show that GHG concentrations below the glacial level are necessary to cause a shoaling of the NADW cell with respect to the preindustrial state in MPI-ESM. For a pCO2 of 149 ppm, the simulated overturning state and the deep ocean water masses are in best agreement with the glacial state inferred from proxy data. Sensitivity studies confirm that brine release and shelf convection in the Southern Ocean are key processes for the shoaling of the NADW cell. Shoaling occurs only when Southern Ocean shelf water contributes significantly to the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9340
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9359
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
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    The effect of greenhouse gas concentrations and ice sheets on the glacial AMOC in a coupled climate model (2016)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-09-08
    Description: Simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) are used to study the sensitivity of the AMOC and the deep-ocean water masses during the Last Glacial Maximum to different sets of forcings. Analysing the individual contributions of the glacial forcings reveals that the ice sheets cause an increase in the overturning strength and a deepening of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) cell, while the low greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations cause a decrease in overturning strength and a shoaling of the NADW cell. The effect of the orbital configuration is negligible. The effects of the ice sheets and the GHG reduction balance each other in the deep ocean so that no shoaling of the NADW cell is simulated in the full glacial state. Experiments in which different GHG concentrations with linearly decreasing radiative forcing are applied to a setup with glacial ice sheets and orbital configuration show that GHG concentrations below the glacial level are necessary to cause a shoaling of the NADW cell with respect to the pre-industrial state in MPI-ESM. For a pCO2 of 149 ppm, the simulated overturning state and the deep-ocean water masses are in best agreement with the glacial state inferred from proxy data. Sensitivity studies confirm that brine release and shelf convection in the Southern Ocean are key processes for the shoaling of the NADW cell. Shoaling occurs only when Southern Ocean shelf water contributes significantly to the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9324
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9332
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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