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  • 11
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    Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control (2024)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-09
    Description: Phytoplankton forms the base of the marine food web by transforming CO2 into organic carbon via photosynthesis. Some of the organic carbon is then transferred through the food web and exported into the deep ocean, a process known as the biological carbon pump. Despite the importance of phytoplankton for marine ecosystems and the global carbon cycle, projections of phytoplankton biomass in response to climate change differ strongly across Earth system models, illustrating uncertainty in our understanding of the underlying processes. Differences are especially large in the Southern Ocean, a region that is notoriously difficult to represent in models. Here, we argue that water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean is projected to largely remain unchanged under climate change by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble because of a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down processes driven by a shoaling mixed layer depth. A shallower mixed layer is projected to improve growth conditions and consequently weaken bottom-up control. In addition to enhanced phytoplankton growth, the shoaling of the mixed layer also compresses phytoplankton closer to the surface and promotes zooplankton grazing efficiency, thus intensifying top-down control. Overall, our results suggest that while changes in bottom-up conditions stimulate enhanced growth, intensified top-down control opposes an increase in phytoplankton and becomes increasingly important for phytoplankton response under climate change in the Southern Ocean.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 12
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    An Assessment of CO2 Uptake in the Arctic Ocean From 1985 to 2018 (2023)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Global Biogeochemical Cycles, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 37(11), ISSN: 0886-6236
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-19
    Description: As a contribution to the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes phase 2 (RECCAP2) project, we present synthesized estimates of Arctic Ocean sea-air CO2 fluxes and their uncertainties from surface ocean pCO2-observation products, ocean biogeochemical hindcast and data assimilation models, and atmospheric inversions. For the period of 1985–2018, the Arctic Ocean was a net sink of CO2 of 116 ± 4 TgC yr−1 in the pCO2 products, 92 ± 30 TgC yr−1 in the models, and 91 ± 21 TgC yr−1 in the atmospheric inversions. The CO2 uptake peaks in late summer and early autumn, and is low in winter when sea ice inhibits sea-air fluxes. The long-term mean CO2 uptake in the Arctic Ocean is primarily caused by steady-state fluxes of natural carbon (70% ± 15%), and enhanced by the atmospheric CO2 increase (19% ± 5%) and climate change (11% ± 18%). The annual mean CO2 uptake increased from 1985 to 2018 at a rate of 31 ± 13 TgC yr−1 dec−1 in the pCO2 products, 10 ± 4 TgC yr−1 dec−1 in the models, and 32 ± 16 TgC yr−1 dec−1 in the atmospheric inversions. Moreover, 77% ± 38% of the trend in the net CO2 uptake over time is caused by climate change, primarily due to rapid sea ice loss in recent years. Furthermore, true uncertainties may be larger than the given ensemble standard deviations due to common structural biases across all individual estimates.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 13
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    The Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle 1985–2018: Mean, Seasonal Cycle, Trends, and Storage (2023)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Global Biogeochemical Cycles, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 37(11), ISSN: 0886-6236
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-20
    Description: We assess the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake (1985–2018) using data sets gathered in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2. The Southern Ocean acted as a sink for CO2 with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75 ± 0.28 PgC yr−1) and pCO2-observation-based products (0.73 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1). This sink is only half that reported by RECCAP1 for the same region and timeframe. The present-day net uptake is to first order a response to rising atmospheric CO2, driving large amounts of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) into the ocean, thereby overcompensating the loss of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap is the increase of the sink since 2000, with pCO2-products suggesting a growth that is more than twice as strong and uncertain as that of GOBMs (0.26 ± 0.06 and 0.11 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−1 decade−1, respectively). This is despite nearly identical pCO2 trends in GOBMs and pCO2-products when both products are compared only at the locations where pCO2 was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed agreement in driving processes in winter with uncertainty in the magnitude of outgassing, whereas discrepancies are more fundamental in summer, when GOBMs exhibit difficulties in simulating the effects of the non-thermal processes of biology and mixing/circulation. Ocean interior accumulation of Cant points to an underestimate of Cant uptake and storage in GOBMs. Future work needs to link surface fluxes and interior ocean transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks and push toward better process understanding of drivers of the carbon cycle.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 14
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    Magnitude, Trends, and Variability of the Global Ocean Carbon Sink From 1985 to 2018 (2023)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Global Biogeochemical Cycles, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 37(10), ISSN: 0886-6236
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-06
    Description: This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO2 flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO2 (pCO2 products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1 by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2 products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 decade−1, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2-driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr−1 decade−1, respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO2-forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2 dominates the ocean CO2 sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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