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  • Articles  (169)
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Temperature histories from tree rings and corals (1995)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 11 (1995), S. 211-222 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Recent temperature trends in long tree-ring and coral proxy temperature histories are evaluated and compared in an effort to objectively determine how anomalous twentieth century temperature changes have been. These histories mostly reflect regional variations in summer warmth from the tree rings and annual warmth from the corals. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North American tree-ring temperature histories and those from the north Polar Urals, covering the past 1000 or more years, indicate that the twentieth century has been anomalously warm relative to the past. In contrast, the tree-ring history from northern Fennoscandia indicates that summer temperatures during the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ were probably warmer on average than those than during this century. In the Southern Hemisphere, the tree-ring temperature histories from South America show no indication of recent warming, which is in accordance with local instrumental records. In contrast, the tree-ring records from Tasmania and New Zealand indicate that the twentieth century has been unusually warm particularly since 1960. The coral temperature histories from the Galapagos Islands and the Great Barrier Reef are in broad agreement with the tree-ring temperature histories in those sectors, with the former showing recent cooling and the latter showing recent warming that may be unprecedented. Overall, the regional temperature histories evaluated here broadly support the larger-scale evidence for anomalous twentieth century warming based on instrumental records. However, this warming cannot be confirmed as an unprecedented event in all regions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00215008
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Temperature histories from tree rings and corals (1995)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 11 (1995), S. 211-222 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Recent temperature trends in long tree-ring and coral proxy temperature histories are evaluated and compared in an effort to objectively determine how anomalous twentieth century temperature changes have been. These histories mostly reflect regional variations in summer warmth from the tree rings and annual warmth from the corals. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North American tree-ring temperature histories and those from the north Polar Urals, covering the past 1000 or more years, indicate that the twentieth century has been anomalously warm relative to the past. In contrast, the tree-ring history from northern Fennoscandia indicates that summer temperatures during the 'Medieval Warm Period' were probably warmer on average than those than during this century. In the Southern Hemisphere, the tree-ring temperature histories from South America show no indication of recent warming, which is in accordance with local instrumental records. In contrast, the tree-ring records from Tasmania and New Zealand indicate that the twentieth century has been unusually warm particularly since 1960. The coral temperature histories from the Galapagos Islands and the Great Barrier Reef are in broad agreement with the tree-ring temperature histories in those sectors, with the former showing recent cooling and the latter showing recent warming that may be unprecedented. Overall, the regional temperature histories evaluated here broadly support the larger-scale evidence for anomalous twentieth century warming based on instrumental records. However, this warming cannot be confirmed as an unprecedented event in all regions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00215008
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On predicting the response of forests in eastern North America to future climatic change (1991)
    Springer
    Climatic change 19 (1991), S. 271-282 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Our ability to accurately predict the response of forests in eastern North America to future climatic change is limited by our knowledge of how different tree species respond to climate. When the climatic response of eastern hemlock is modeled across its range, we find that the assumed climatic response used in simulation models is not sufficient to explain how this species is presently responding to climate. This is also the case for red spruce growing in the northern Appalachian Mountains. Consequently, simulations of future change to forests that include eastern hemlock and red spruce may need to be improved. We suspect that similar findings will be made when other tree species are studied in detail using tree-ring analysis. If so, our present understanding of how individual tree species respond to climate may not be adequate for accurately predicting future changes to these forests. Tree-ring analysis can increase our understanding of how climate affects tree growth in eastern North America and, hence, provide the knowledge necessary to produce more accurate predictions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00140166
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change and forest decline: A review of the red spruce case (1989)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 48 (1989), S. 127-140 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Climate change as a contributor to the decline of red spruce is investigated. Previous climatic response model results are reviewed and more detailed time-dependent modeling of tree growth-climate interactions are performed using the Kalman filter. These new results show that there is a clear temporal and elevational dependence in the response of red spruce to climate. Influence of abnormally warm prior-August temperatures become increasingly time-dependent with decreasing elevation, which is contrary to the elevational gradient in the severity of decline. Thus, this variable, which had been implicated in red spruce declines from previous studies, is unlikely to be a primary cause of the current decline. However, it may be implicated in earlier declines at low elevations. Prior-December temperatures are influential at all elevations, but time-dependent only at the highest elevational zone. The emergence of a strongly time-dependent prior-November temperature response is clearly associated with a time-trend in the temperature record. Thus, it is likely that red spruce is responding, in a transient sense, to changing climate. An additional transient response to current-July temperatures is not associated with any unusual behavior in the data and is, as yet, unexplained. These results show that red spruce is not in equilibrium with its climatic environment, which may have made it more susceptible to damage caused by natural and anthropogenic factors.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00282374
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  • 15
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    Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin (2020)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-05-11
    Description: Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 16
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    Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century (2020)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-06
    Description: South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 17
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    The potential to strengthen temperature reconstructions in ecoregions with limited tree line using a multispecies approach (2019)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈div data-abstract-type="normal"〉〈p〉Tree-ring reconstructions of temperature often target trees at altitudinal or latitudinal tree line where annual growth is broadly expected to be limited by and respond to temperature variability. Based on this principal, regions with sparse tree line would seem to be restricted in their potential to reconstruct past temperatures. In the northeastern United States, there are only two published temperature reconstructions. Previous work in the region reconstructing moisture availability, however, has shown that using a greater diversity of species can improve reconstruction model skill. Here, we use a network of 228 tree-ring records composed of 29 species to test the hypothesis that an increase in species diversity among the pool of predictors improves reconstructions of past temperatures. 〈span〉Chamaecyparis thyoides〈/span〉 alone explained 31% of the variability in observed cool-season minimum temperatures, but a multispecies model increased the explained variance to 44%. 〈span〉Liriodendron tulipifera〈/span〉, a species not previously used for temperature reconstructions, explained a similar amount of variance as 〈span〉Chamaecyparis thyoides〈/span〉 (12.9% and 20.8%, respectively). Increasing the species diversity of tree proxies has the potential for improving reconstruction of paleotemperatures in regions lacking latitudinal or elevational tree lines provided that long-lived hardwood records can be located.〈/p〉〈/div〉
    Print ISSN: 0033-5894
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-0287
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Cambridge University Press
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  • 18
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    Strip-Bark Morphology and Radial Growth Trends in AncientPinus sibiricaTrees From Central Mongolia (2018)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-01
    Print ISSN: 2169-8953
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-8961
    Topics: Geosciences , Biology
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 19
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    A 500-Year Tree Ring-Based Reconstruction of Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation and Number of Atmospheric River Landfalls Across the Southwestern United States (2018)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-06-10
    Description: This study develops a reconstruction of the frequency of extreme cold-season precipitation and the occurrence of landfalling atmospheric river (AR) storm tracks across the southwestern Unites States using a network of tree ring chronologies and the Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA), a 500-year tree ring based reconstruction of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index. The first two rotated empirical orthogonal functions of the LBDA across the Southwest are shown to relate well to previously identified patterns of regional AR activity. Accordingly, the rotated empirical orthogonal functions also record patterns of extreme precipitation associated with those ARs, albeit with some uncertainty introduced by nonextreme precipitation. A network of chronologies sensitive to cold-season precipitation is then used to reconstruct the occurrence of landfalling ARs and extreme precipitation along the southern Californian coast, demonstrating for the first time the feasibility of reconstructing AR landfalls and extreme events in the Southwest based on spatial patterns in a network of dendroclimatic proxies. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 20
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    How Wet and Dry Spells Evolve across the Conterminous United States Based on 555 Years of Paleoclimate Data (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-07-19
    Description: Evolving patterns of droughts and wet spells in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined over 555 years using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate reconstruction of the modified Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). A hidden Markov model is used as an unsupervised method of classifying climate states and quantifying the temporal evolution from one state to another. Modeling temporal variability in spatial patterns of drought and wet spells provides the ability to objectively assess and simulate historical persistence and recurrence of similar patterns. The Viterbi algorithm reveals the probable sequence of states through time, enabling an examination of temporal and spatial features and associated large-scale climate forcing. Distinct patterns of sea surface temperature that are known to enhance or inhibit rainfall are associated with some states. Using the current CONUS PDSI field the model can be used to simulate the space–time PDSI pattern over the next few years, or unconditional simulations can be used to derive estimates of spatially concurrent PDSI patterns and their persistence and intensity across the CONUS.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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