ALBERT

Description: Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

Description: We applied GRACE Tellus products in combination with GLDAS simulations and data from reports, to analyze variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in China and eight of its basins from 2003 to 2013. Amplitudes of TWS were well restored after scaling, and showed good correlations with those estimated from models at the basin scale. TWS generally followed variations in annual precipitation, it decreased linearly in Huai River basin (−0.564 cm yr−1) and increased with fluctuations in Changjiang River basin (0.348 cm yr−1), Zhujiang basin (0.552 cm yr−1) and Southeast Rivers basin (0.696 cm yr−1). In Hai River basin and Yellow River basin, groundwater exploitation may have altered TWS's response to climate, but it began to restore since 2012. Changes in soil moisture storage contributed over 50% in of variances in TWS in most basins. Precipitation and runoff showed large impact on TWS, with explained variances higher in TWS in the south than in the north. North China and Southwest Rivers region exhibited long-term TWS depletions. TWS increased significantly over the recent decade in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang, southeastern coastal area, as well as the Hoh Xil, and headstream region of the Yellow River in Tibetan plateau. The findings in this study could be helpful to climate change impact research and disaster mitigation planning.

Description: The problem of earthquake prediction has stimulated the research for correlation between seismic activity and ionospheric anomaly. Many observations have shown the existence of anomaly of critical frequency of ionospheric F-region, foF2, before earthquake onset. Ionospheric sounding has been conducted routinely for more than 60 years in China by the China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation (CRIRP), and deveoloped a very powerful ability to observe the ionosphere. In this paper, we briefly describe the anomalous variation of the foF2 before Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake (occurred on 12 May 2008 at 14:28 LT; 31.00° N, 103.40° E), which is a sign of the great interest arising in the seismo-ionospheric investigation of Chinese researchers. Furthermore, we introduce the routine work on seismo-ionospheric anomaly by the ground based high-resolution ionospheric observation (GBHIO) network comprising 5 vertical and 20 oblique sounding stations.

Description: Qiu et al. (2014) quantitatively examined the mechanisms of sea surface temperature front disappearance, finding that the formation of shallow mixed layer depth (MLD) is very important. In the present study, we further investigated variations of the sea level anomaly (SLA) and mixed layer depth (MLD) during the SST front weakening period, based on weekly satellite derived products. For the SLA, we examined the steric height component of SLA, using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and physical method. The seasonal variations of steric height from above two methods have the same pattern: peak value (~ 20 cm) occurs in July-August, and minimum value (~ −5 cm) occurs in February to March. Correlation between SLA and SST achieves 0.76 in cold zone and frontal zone, and it is 0.86 between steric component and SST. When SST becomes large, MLD decreases gradually. The linear relationship (y = −4.46 x +156.47) between MLD and SST could be used to estimate the MLD in the subtropical front zone.

Description: We applied Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Tellus products in combination with Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) simulations and data from reports, to analyze variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in China as a whole and eight of its basins from 2003 to 2013. Amplitudes of TWS were well restored after scaling, and showed good correlations with those estimated from models at the basin scale. TWS generally followed variations in annual precipitation; it decreased linearly in the Huai River basin (−0.56 cm yr−1) and increased with fluctuations in the Changjiang River basin (0.35 cm yr−1), Zhujiang basin (0.55 cm yr−1) and southeast rivers basin (0.70 cm yr−1). In the Hai River basin and Yellow River basin, groundwater exploitation may have altered TWS's response to climate, and TWS kept decreasing until 2012. Changes in soil moisture storage contributed over 50 % of variance in TWS in most basins. Precipitation and runoff showed a large impact on TWS, with more explained TWS in the south than in the north. North China and southwest rivers region exhibited long-term TWS depletions. TWS has increased significantly over recent decades in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River, southeastern coastal areas, as well as the Hoh Xil, and the headstream region of the Yellow River in the Tibetan Plateau. The findings in this study could be helpful to climate change impact research and disaster mitigation planning.

Description: This study evaluates and compares the indirect economic loss (IEL) resulting from two hypothetical catastrophes occurring in China – in developed Shanghai and in less-developed Sichuan – to provide new measures of disaster reduction. IEL was divided into indirect economic loss due to the disruption of production process (IEL I) and indirect economic loss induced by the disturbance of industrial lines (IEL II). An input-output model was used to assess these two types of IEL. The study showed that (1) developed regions may be more vulnerable with respect to IEL; (2) IEL II is the primary factor contributing to total IEL; (3) decision makers need to focus on IEL II beside IEL I which is usually the main disaster-reduction target after a disaster; and (4) tradeoff between economic growth and disaster prevention is needed to achieve regional sustainable development.

Description: Streams are natural features in urban landscapes that can provide ecosystem services for urban residents. However, urban streams are under increasing pressure caused by multiple anthropogenic impacts, including increases in human population and associated impervious surface area, and accelerated climate change. The ability to anticipate these changes and better understand their effects on streams is important for developing and implementing strategies to mitigate potentially negative effects. In this study, stream flow was monitored during April–November (2011 and 2012), and the data were used to apply the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for five urban watersheds in central Iowa, USA, representing a gradient of percent impervious surface (IS, ranging from 5.3 to 37.1%). A set of three scenarios was designed to quantify hydrological responses to independent and combined effects of climate change (18% increase in precipitation), and land cover change (absolute increases between 5.2 and 17.1%, based on separate projections of impervious surfaces for the five watersheds) for the year 2040 compared to a current condition simulation. An additional set of three scenarios examined stream response to different distributions of land cover change within a single watershed. Hydrological responses were quantified using three indices: unit-area peak discharge, flashiness (R-B Index; Richards–Baker Index), and runoff ratio. Stream hydrology was strongly affected by watershed percent IS. For the current condition simulation, values for all three indices were five to seven times greater in the most developed watershed compared to the least developed watershed. The climate change scenario caused a 20.8% increase in unit-area peak discharge on average across the five watersheds compared to the current condition simulation. The land cover change scenario resulted in large increases for all three indices: 49.5% for unit-area peak discharge, 39.3% for R-B Index, and 73.9% for runoff ratio, on average, for the five watersheds. The combined climate and land cover change scenario resulted in slight increases on average for R-B Index (43.7%) and runoff ratio (74.5%) compared to the land cover change scenario, and a substantial increase, on average, in unit area peak discharge (80.1%). The scenarios for different distributions of land cover change within one watershed resulted in changes for all three indices, with an 18.4% increase in unit-area peak discharge for the midstream scenario, and 17.5% (downstream) and 18.1% (midstream) increases in R-B Index, indicating sensitivity to the location of potential additions of IS within a watershed. Given the likelihood of increased precipitation in the future, land use planning and policy tools that limit expansion of impervious surfaces (e.g. by substituting pervious surfaces) or mitigate against their impacts (e.g. by installing bioswales) could be used to minimize negative effects on streams.

Description: A field investigation and measurement of ground temperatures in boreholes was carried out in the upper area of Shule River in the western part of the Qilianshan Mountains, in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 2008. On the basis of this a sketchy distribution pattern of permafrost in this area was established. A regional permafrost model considering the effects of latitude, altitude, slope and aspect on distribution of permafrost was developed. The effect of latitude was calculated by the Gauss curve as proposed by Cheng, and then added to the effect of altitude. A linear relationship was found between altitude and the measured ground temperatures. For the effects of slope and aspect which mainly affected the amount and spatial distribution of the incoming solar radiation, a linear equation based on increments of the incoming solar radiation and the changes in ground temperature was used to evaluate their influence on the development of permafrost. A distribution map of the frozen ground, as well as a classification map of permafrost based on ground temperatures was produced using the ARCGIS software. In addition, the spatial distribution patterns of frozen ground and each permafrost type in this region were also analyzed.

Description: Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have been successfully used in a large range of environmental issues. Several methods such as digital contour interpolation and remote sensing have allowed the generation of DEMs, some of which are now freely available for almost the entire globe. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a widely used semi-distributed model operating at the watershed level and has previously been shown to be very sensitive to the quality of the input topographic information. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of DEMs generated from different data sources, respectively DLG5m (local Digital Line Graph, 5 m interval), ASTER30m (1 arc-s ASTER Global DEM Version 1, approximately 30 m resolution), and SRTM90m (3 arc-s SRTM Version 4, approximately 90 m resolution), on SWAT predictions for runoff, sediment, total phosphor (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). Eleven resolutions, from 5 m to 140 m, were considered in this study. Results indicate that the predictions of TPs and TNs decreased substantially with coarser resampled resolution. Slightly decreased trends could be found in the predicted sediments when DEMs were resampled to coarser resolutions. Predicted runoffs were not sensitive to resampled resolutions. The predicted outputs based on DLG5m were more sensitive to resampled resolutions than those based on ASTER30m and SRTM90m. At original resolutions, the predicted outputs based on ASTER30m and SRTM90m were similar, but the predicted TNs and TPs based on ASTER30m and SRTM90m were much lower than the one based on DLG5m. For the predicted TNs and TPs, which were substantially sensitive to DEM resolutions, the output accuracies of SWAT derived from ASTER30m and SRTM90m could be improved by down-scaled resampling, but they could not improve on finer DEM (DLG5m) at the same resolution. This study helps GIS environmental model users to understand the sensitivities of SWAT to DEM resolution, and choose feasible DEM data for environmental models.

Description: Streams are natural features in urban landscapes that can provide ecosystem services for urban residents. However, urban streams are under increasing pressure caused by multiple anthropogenic impacts, including increases in human population and associated impervious surface area, and accelerated climate change. The ability to anticipate these changes and better understand their effects on streams is important for developing and implementing strategies to mitigate potentially negative effects. In this study, stream flow was monitored during April–November (2011 and 2012), and the data were used to apply the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for five urban watersheds in central Iowa, USA representing a gradient of percent impervious surface (IS, ranging from 5.3 to 37.1%). A set of three scenarios was designed to quantify hydrological responses to independent and combined effects of climate change (18% increase in precipitation), and land cover change (absolute increases between 5.2 and 17.1%, based on separate projections of impervious surfaces for the five watersheds) for the year 2040 compared to a current condition simulation. An additional set of three scenarios examined stream response to different distributions of land cover change within a single watershed. Hydrological responses were quantified using three indices: unit-area peak discharge, flashiness (R-B Index), and runoff ratio. Stream hydrology was strongly affected by watershed percent IS. For the current condition simulation, values for all three indices were five to seven times greater in the most developed watershed compared to the least developed watershed. The climate change scenario caused a 20.8% increase in unit-area peak discharge on average across the five watersheds compared to the current condition simulation. The land cover change scenario resulted in large increases for all three indices: 49.5% for unit-area peak discharge, 39.3% for R-B Index, and 73.9% for runoff ratio, on average, for the five watersheds. The combined climate and land cover change scenario resulted in even greater increases for all three indices: 80.1% for unit-area peak discharge, 43.7% for R-B Index, and 74.5% for runoff ratio, on average, for the five watersheds. The scenarios for different distributions of land cover change within one watershed resulted in changes for all three indices, with an 18.4% increase in unit-area peak discharge for the midstream scenario, and 17.5% (downstream) and 18.1% (midstream) increases in R-B Index, indicating sensitivity to the location of potential additions of IS within a watershed. Given the likelihood of increased precipitation in the future, land use planning and policy tools that limit expansion of impervious surfaces (e.g. by substituting pervious surfaces) or mitigate against their impacts (e.g. by installing bioswales) could be used to minimize negative effects on streams.