ALBERT

Description: This article describes the IFS-AER aerosol module used operationally in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) cycle 45R1, operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS). We describe the different parameterizations for aerosol sources, sinks, and its chemical production in IFS-AER, as well as how the aerosols are integrated in the larger atmospheric composition forecasting system. The focus is on the entire 45R1 code base, including some components that are not used operationally, in which case this will be clearly specified. This paper is an update to the Morcrette et al. (2009) article that described aerosol forecasts at the ECMWF using cycle 32R2 of the IFS. Between cycles 32R2 and 45R1, a number of source and sink processes have been reviewed and/or added, notably increasing the complexity of IFS-AER. A greater integration with the tropospheric chemistry scheme of the IFS has been achieved for the sulfur cycle and for nitrate production. Two new species, nitrate and ammonium, have also been included in the forecasting system. Global budgets and aerosol optical depth (AOD) fields are shown, as is an evaluation of the simulated particulate matter (PM) and AOD against observations, showing an increase in skill from cycle 40R2, used in the CAMS interim ReAnalysis (CAMSiRA), to cycle 45R1.

Description: The International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) has long espoused studies of deep subsurface life, and has targeted fundamental questions regarding subsurface life, including the following: "(1) What is the extent and diversity of deep microbial life and what are the factors limiting it? (2) What are the types of metabolism/carbon/energy sources and the rates of subsurface activity? (3) How is deep microbial life adapted to subsurface conditions? (4) How do subsurface microbial communities affect energy resources? And (5) how does the deep biosphere interact with the geosphere and atmosphere?" (Horsfield et al., 2014) Many ICDP-sponsored drilling projects have included a deep-life component; however, to date, not one project has been driven by deep-life goals, in part because geomicrobiologists have been slow to initiate deep biosphere-driven ICDP projects. Therefore, the Deep Carbon Observatory (DCO) recently partnered with the ICDP to sponsor a workshop with the specific aim of gathering potential proponents for deep-life-driven ICDP projects and ideas for candidate drilling sites. Twenty-two participants from nine countries proposed projects and sites that included compressional and extensional tectonic environments, evaporites, hydrocarbon-rich shales, flood basalts, Precambrian shield rocks, subglacial and subpermafrost environments, active volcano–tectonic systems, megafan deltas, and serpentinizing ultramafic environments. The criteria and requirements for successful ICDP applications were presented. Deep-life-specific technical requirements were discussed and it was concluded that, while these procedures require adequate planning, they are entirely compatible with the sampling needs of other disciplines. As a result of this workshop, one drilling workshop proposal on the Basin and Range Physiographic Province (BRPP) has been submitted to the ICDP, and several other drilling project proponents plan to submit proposals for ICDP-sponsored drilling workshops in 2016.

Description: This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014). This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs and PAN + PAN precursors) over 8 vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performances of the system are assessed daily, weekly and 3 monthly (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the median ensemble to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The time period of this case study is also used to illustrate that the median ensemble generally outperforms each of the individual models and that it is still robust even if two of the seven models are missing. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10 and show an overall improvement over time. The change of the skills of the ensemble over the past two summers for ozone and the past two winters for PM10 are discussed in the paper. While the evolution of the ozone scores is not significant, there are improvements of PM10 over the past two winters that can be at least partly attributed to new developments on aerosols in the seven individual models. Nevertheless, the year to year changes in the models and ensemble skills are also linked to the variability of the meteorological conditions and of the set of observations used to calculate the statistical indicators. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.

Description: The eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 is the largest documented volcanic eruption in history. It is associated with a large global cooling during the following year, felt particularly in parts of Europe and North America, where the year 1816 became known as the "year without a summer". This paper describes an effort made to collect surface meteorological observations from the early instrumental period, with a focus on the years of and immediately following the eruption (1815–1817). Although the collection aimed in particular at pressure observations, correspondent temperature observations were also recovered. Some of the series had already been described in the literature, but a large part of the data, recently digitised from original weather diaries and contemporary magazines and newspapers, is presented here for the first time. The collection puts together more than 50 sub-daily series from land observatories in Europe and North America and from ships in the tropics. The pressure observations have been corrected for temperature and gravity and reduced to mean sea level. Moreover, an additional statistical correction was applied to take into account common error sources in mercury barometers. To assess the reliability of the corrected data set, the variance in the pressure observations is compared with modern climatologies, and single observations are used for synoptic analyses of three case studies in Europe. All raw observations will be made available to the scientific community in the International Surface Pressure Databank.

Description: The eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 is the largest documented volcanic eruption in history. It caused a large global cooling during the following year, felt particularly in parts of Europe and North America, where the year 1816 became known as the "year without a summer". This paper describes an effort made to collect surface meteorological observations from the early instrumental period, with a focus on the years immediately following the eruption (1815–1817). Although the collection aimed in particular at pressure observations, correspondent temperature observations were also recovered. Some of the series had already been described in the literature, but a large part of the data, recently digitised from original weather diaries and contemporary magazines and newspapers, is presented here for the first time. The collection puts together more than fifty sub-daily series from land observatories in Europe and North America, and from ships in the tropics. The pressure observations have been corrected for temperature and gravity and reduced to mean sea level, moreover an additional statistical correction was applied to take into account common error sources in mercury barometers. To assess the reliability of the corrected dataset, the variance of the pressure observations is compared with modern climatologies and single observations are used for synoptic analyses of three case studies in Europe. All raw observations will be made available to the scientific community in the International Surface Pressure Databank.

Description: Intact polar lipids (IPLs) are considered biomarkers for living biomass. Their degradation in marine sediments, however, is poorly understood and complicates interpretation of their occurrence in geological samples. To investigate the turnover of IPLs, a degradation experiment with anoxic sandy sediments from the North Sea was conducted. Intact cells of two organisms that do not naturally occur in North Sea sediments were chosen as IPL sources: (i) Saccharomyces cerevisiae, representative for ester-bound acyl lipids that also occur in Bacteria, and (ii) the archaeon Haloferax volcanii, representative for ether-bound isoprenoid lipids. Surprisingly, IPLs with phosphoester-bound head groups showed approximately the same degradation rate as IPLs with glycosidic head groups. Furthermore, the results indicate a relatively fast degradation of S. cerevisiae IPLs with ester-bound moieties (analogs of bacterial membrane lipids) and no significant degradation of archaeal IPLs with ether-bound moieties. Pore water and 16S rRNA-based DGGE analysis showed only a minor influence of the IPL source on microbial metabolism and community profiles. Due to our results, the IPL-based quantification of Archaea and Bacteria should be interpreted with caution.

Description: A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The goal of this study is to identify the current state of carbon observations and needs for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion (by several orders of magnitude) of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over remote areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in-situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases inter-operable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.

Description: Aerosols affect the atmosphere through the aerosol-radiation and the aerosol-clouds interactions. In this paper we report on a new mechanism whereby the radiative effect of dust aerosol on surface fluxes acts to increase the dust loading of the atmosphere via modification of boundary-layer stability, thereby acting to enhance the radiative aerosol effect. This positive feedback between dust aerosol and boundary layer stability occurred during a series of dust storms in the Sahara and the Eastern Mediterranean in April 2012, which were studied using the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation (MACC-II) system. The radiative fluxes in the shortwave and long-wave spectra were both significantly affected by the prognostic aerosols-radiation interation, which strongly influenced the meteorological simulation. Reduced incoming solar radiation below the aerosol layers caused a decrease in maximum surface temperatures, and consequently a more stable thermal stratification of the lower atmosphere. The increased thermal stability led to decreased surface wind speeds and therefore to smaller amounts of dust aerosol emissions. Larger downwelling long-wave fluxes were associated with the opposite processes: less stable thermal stratification at night, brought mainly by higher minimum temperatures at the surface, caused stronger surface winds. Overall, the impact by the long-wave radiative forcing was more important than the short-wave contribution. This feedback was amplified when taken into account in the aerosol analysis of the MACC-II global system. It lead to a notable improvement in short term forecast of short and long-wave radiative fluxes, of surface temperature but also of the aerosol burden itself. Forecasts of radiative fluxes in the shortwave and long-wave spectrum were also improved. At a longer range the improvement were less important as the forecast error of the aerosol load increased, thereby highlighting the importance of accurate aerosol representation in the study of aerosol-radiation interaction.

Description: Climate change mitigation efforts require information on the current greenhouse gas atmospheric concentrations and their sources and sinks. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its variability in the atmosphere is modulated by the synergy between weather and CO2 surface fluxes, often referred to as CO2 weather. It is interpreted with the help of global or regional numerical transport models, with horizontal resolutions ranging from a few hundreds of km to a few km. Changes in the model horizontal resolution affect not only atmospheric transport, but also the representation of topography and surface CO2 fluxes. This paper assesses the impact of horizontal resolution on the simulated atmospheric CO2 variability with a numerical weather prediction model. The simulations are performed using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) CO2 forecasting system at different resolutions from 9 km to 80 km and are evaluated using in situ atmospheric surface measurements and atmospheric column-mean observations of CO2, as well as radiosonde and SYNOP observations of the winds. The results indicate that both diurnal and day-to-day variability of atmospheric CO2 are generally better represented at high resolution, as shown by a reduction in the errors in simulated wind and CO2. Mountain stations display the largest improvements at high resolution as they directly benefit from the more realistic orography. In addition, the CO2 spatial gradients are generally improved with increasing resolution for both stations near the surface and those observing the total column, as the overall inter-station error is also reduced in magnitude. However, close to emission hotspots, the high resolution can also lead to a deterioration of the simulation skill, highlighting uncertainties in the high resolution fluxes that are more diffuse at lower resolutions. We conclude that increasing horizontal resolution matters for modelling CO2 weather because it has the potential to bring together improvements in the surface representation of both winds and CO2 fluxes, as well as an expected reduction in numerical errors of transport. Modelling applications like atmospheric inversion systems to estimate surface fluxes will only be able to benefit fully from upgrades in horizontal resolution if the topography, winds and prior flux distribution are also upgraded accordingly. It is clear from the results that an additional increase in resolution might reduce errors even further. However, the horizontal resolution sensitivity tests indicate that the change in the CO2 and wind modelling error with resolution is not linear, making it difficult to extrapolate the results beyond the tested resolutions. Finally, we show that the high resolution simulations are useful for the assessment of the small-scale variability of CO2 which cannot be represented in coarser resolution models. These representativeness errors need to be considered when assimilating in situ data and high resolution satellite data such as Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Chinese Carbon Dioxide Observation Satellite Mission (TanSat) and future missions such as the Geostationary Carbon Observatory (GeoCarb) and the Sentinel satellite constellation for CO2. For these reasons, the high resolution CO2 simulations provided by the CAMS in real-time can be useful to estimate such small-scale variability in real time, as well as providing boundary conditions for regional modelling studies and supporting field experiments.

Description: A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 satellite retrievals, as they become available in near-real time. In this way, the accumulation of errors in the atmospheric CO2 forecast will be reduced. Improvements in the CO2 forecast are also expected with the continuous developments in the operational IFS.