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  • 1
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    Analogous seasonal evolution of the South Atlantic SST dipole indices (2017)
    Wiley
    In:  Atmospheric Science Letters, 18 (10). pp. 396-402.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Two variants of sea-surface temperature (SST) dipole indices for the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) has been previously described representing: (1) the South Atlantic subtropical dipole (SASD) supposedly peaking in austral summer and (2) the SAO dipole (SAOD) in winter. In this study, we present the analysis of observational data sets (1985–2014) showing the SASD and SAOD as largely constituting the same mode of ocean–atmosphere interaction reminiscent of the SAOD structure peaking in winter. Indeed, winter is the only season in which the inverse correlation between the northern and southern poles of both indices is statistically significant. The observed SASD and SAOD indices exhibit robust correlations (P ≤ 0.001) in all seasons and these are reproduced by 54 of the 63 different models of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project analysed. Their robust correlations notwithstanding the SASD and SAOD indices appear to better capture different aspects of SAO climate variability and teleconnections
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Dynamics of Tropical Atlantic Variability (2022)
    CLIVAR
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    Publication Date: 2023-01-06
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    Variability and trends of atmospheric moisture in recent West African monsoon season and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment‐Africa projected 21st century scenarios (2020)
    Royal Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: The interannual variability and trends of atmospheric moisture flux convergence (MFC) and the flux transport and their roles in wet season rainfall variability during the West Africa monsoon season have been investigated using the Climate Research Unit observational datasets and the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis 2 from 1979 to 2016 and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa model outputs. Particular emphasis has been placed on the three rainfall zones: the Western Sudano Sahel, the Eastern Sudano Sahel and the Guinea Coast. The MFC shows largest variability and impact on rainfall in the Western Sudano Sahel, followed by the Guinea Coast, but there is no significant impact in the Eastern Sudano Sahel. Furthermore, the MFC shows significant positive trends at the Sahelian locations but not at the Guinea Coast. The CORDEX-Africa models adequately simulate the climatology and spatial patterns of the mean June to September atmospheric moisture; however, differences exist in the magnitude and signs of the temporal trend. The model ensemble mean is presented, which better represents the atmospheric moisture during the monsoon rainfall variability. A mean bias-corrected projection of the atmospheric moisture shows enhanced rainfall variability of the Guinea Coast in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 at the end of the 21st century.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    A Satellite Era Warming Hole in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean (2020)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Observations during the satellite era 1979–2018 only depict small sea surface temperature (SST) trends over the Equatorial Atlantic cold tongue region in boreal summer. This lack of surface warming of the cold tongue, termed warming hole here, denotes an 11% amplification of the mean SST annual cycle. The warming hole is driven by a shoaling of the equatorial thermocline, linked to increased wind stress forcing, and damped by the surface turbulent heat fluxes. The satellite era warming deficit is not unusual during the twentieth century—similar weak trends were also observed during the 1890s–1910s and 1940s–1960s. The tendency for surface cooling appears to reflect an interaction of external forcing, which controls the timing and magnitude of the cooling, with the intrinsic variability of the climate system. The hypothesis for externally forced modulation of internal variability is supported by climate model simulations forced by the observed time-varying concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and natural aerosols. These show that increased greenhouse forcing warmed the cold tongue and aerosols cooled it during the satellite era. However, internal variability, as derived from control integrations with fixed, preindustrial values of greenhouse gases and aerosols, can potentially cause larger cooling than observed during the satellite era. Large uncertainties remain on the relative roles of external forcing and intrinsic variability in both observations and coupled climate models.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
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    Residents’ perception of the consequences of industrial activities in Ilupeju, Southwestern Nigeria (2020)
    Taylor & Francis
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: This study examined the residential perceptions of industrial activities in Ilupeju, Lagos, Nigeria. The relevance of distance decay theory, which postulates that the magnitude of effects of the outputs from an industrial establishment would decrease with increasing distance from the point of origin, was tested in the study. Global Positioning System was used to capture the coordinates of the identified firms in Ilupeju. Additionally, two different sets of structured questionnaire were designed; the first set, which was distributed among the industrialists, sought information on the types of waste generated among others while the second set was randomly distributed among the residents and was used to elicit information on the types of pollution emanating from the industries, socioeconomic benefits, among others. The result shows that there is a significant variation in the perceived effects as people living within 0.5 km to the industrial sites claimed to suffer more pollution than those living 1.5 km away from the industrial sites, which is consistent with the distance decay theory. On the other hand, the distance decay theory cannot explain socioeconomic impacts such as increase in living costs, among others as they are felt around the study area irrespective of distance away from the industrial sites.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 6
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    Pan-Atlantic decadal climate oscillation linked to ocean circulation (2023)
    Nature Research
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    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Atlantic climate displays an oscillatory mode at a period of 10–15 years described as pan-Atlantic decadal oscillation. Prevailing theories on the mode are based on thermodynamic air-sea interactions and the role of ocean circulation remains uncertain. Here we uncover ocean circulation variability associated with the pan-Atlantic decadal oscillation using observational datasets from 1900–2009. Specifically, a sea level-derived index of ocean circulation also exhibits 10-15 year periodicity and leads the surface climate oscillation. The underlying ocean circulation links the extratropical and tropical Atlantic, where the maximum variance in surface-ocean temperature feeds back on the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic region). Our findings imply that, rather than a passive role postulated by the thermodynamic paradigm, ocean circulation across the Atlantic plays an active role for the pan-Atlantic decadal climate oscillation.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
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    Strengthening atmospheric circulation and trade winds slowed tropical Pacific surface warming (2023)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The globally averaged sea-surface temperature (SST) has steadily increased in the last four decades, consistent with the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Parts of the tropical Pacific exhibited less warming than the global average or even cooling, which is not captured by state-of-the-art climate models and the reasons are poorly understood. Here we show that the last four decades featured a strengthening atmospheric circulation and stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific, which counteracted externally-forced SST warming. Climate models do not simulate the trends in the atmospheric circulation irrespective of whether an external forcing is applied or not and model bias is the likely reason. This study raises questions about model-based tropical Pacific climate change projections and emphasizes the need to enhance understanding of tropical Pacific climate dynamics and response to external forcing in order to project with confidence future climate changes in the tropical Pacific sector and beyond.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
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    Diabatic heating governs the seasonality of the Atlantic Nino (2021)
    Nature Research
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    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Niño is the leading mode of interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial Atlantic and assumed to be largely governed by coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics described by the Bjerknes-feedback loop. However, the role of the atmospheric diabatic heating, which can be either an indicator of the atmosphere’s response to, or its influence on the SST, is poorly understood. Here, using satellite-era observations from 1982–2015, we show that diabatic heating variability associated with the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone controls the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño. The variability in precipitation, a measure of vertically integrated diabatic heating, leads that in SST, whereas the atmospheric response to SST variability is relatively weak. Our findings imply that the oceanic impact on the atmosphere is smaller than previously thought, questioning the relevance of the classical Bjerknes-feedback loop for the Atlantic Niño and limiting climate predictability over the equatorial Atlantic sector.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
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    Leading patterns of the satellite-era summer precipitation over West Africa and associated global teleconnections (2021)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Precipitation patterns over West Africa display a broad range of timescales, from the intraseasonal to decadal timescales, as well as multidecadal shifts. Here we investigate the dominant patterns of the July to September precipitation over the region and the related ocean-atmosphere anomalies during the satellite-era from 1983 to 2017. Using extended empirical orthogonal function analysis of an ensemble of nine precipitation datasets, we identify two dominant modes that together account for about 33% of the variance. The Sahel mode displays spatially coherent increases in precipitation over much of West Africa and a decrease at the Guinea Coast, and is closely reproduced by linear trend analysis. Linear trends explain 25–53% of the Sahel variance from the drier mid-1980s to the wetter mid-1990s. The Guinea Coast mode displays robust precipitation anomalies south of the Sahel, with strong interannual variability and a statistically non-significant trend. The Sahel mode is associated with a northerly displacement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), warm North Atlantic with cold blob in the subpolar gyre region, warm Mediterranean Sea, warm tropical southwest Indian Ocean and negative Pacific decadal variability pattern. The Atlantic Niño leads the Guinea Coast mode by two months. Both Sahel and Guinea Coast modes are substantially influenced by the interactions between meridional (displacements of the ITCZ) and zonal (variations of the Walker Circulation) atmospheric circulations. The southerly displacement of the ITCZ, convection, upper-level divergence and surface convergence in the equatorial Atlantic associated with the Guinea Coast mode is horizontally compensated by strong surface divergence and upper-level convergence over the equatorial Pacific where anomalous cooling prevails, implying a strong role for the Walker Circulation during this period.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 10
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    North Atlantic oscillation controls multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection (2023)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: By exciting subtropical teleconnections, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during boreal spring can trigger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter, thereby providing a precursor for ENSO predictability. However, this NTA−ENSO connection is not stationary, and it varies considerably over multidecadal timescales, which cannot be directly explained by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation or the global warming trend. Here we show that multidecadal changes in the NTA−ENSO connection are principally controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the positive phase of the NAO, the amplification of the NTA impact on ENSO mainly arises from strengthening of the boreal spring mean precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic and enhancement of the persistence of NTA SST anomalies, which enhance the NTA influence by exciting stronger and more persistent subtropical teleconnections. Our findings show that multidecadal variability of the NAO is key to understanding the impacts of the NTA SST on the tropical Pacific Ocean.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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