ALBERT

Description: The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing ENSO phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.

Description: We examine the interannual variability of the seasonal mean atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere during austral winter. The three major modes are identified by rotated EOF (REOF) analysis. As expected, REOF1 is associated with the Southern Annular Mode which is dominated by internal atmospheric dynamics. REOF2 displays a wave train, linked to the western North Pacific monsoon and the Pacific-Japan pattern in East Asia in the same season; REOF3 resembles the Pacific-South American pattern. Externally-forced variability strongly projects on both REOF2 and REOF3 so that, in the ensemble mean, an atmospheric model with prescribed observed sea surface temperature (SST) captures considerable parts of the time evolution of REOF2 (50%) and REOF3 (25%), suggesting a potential predictability for the two modes.

Description: Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth’s regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1–2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

Description: This study investigates the interaction of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-year model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth Sytem Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural and no anthropogenic forcings are considered. These long simulations allow us to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO-ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region.

Description: Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate1 by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun2, 3. However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of 10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759  ±  39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199  ±  9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.

Description: Major stratospheric sudden warmings are prominent disturbances of the Northern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere. Understanding the factors controlling major warmings is required, since the associated circulation changes can propagate down into the troposphere and affect the surface climate, suggesting enhanced prediction skill when these processes are accurately represented in models. In this study we investigate how different natural and anthropogenic factors, namely, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), sea surface temperatures (SSTs), anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances, influence the frequency, variability, and life cycle of major warmings. This is done using sensitivity experiments performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is able to simulate the life cycle of major warmings realistically. The QBO strengthens the climatological stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) and significantly reduces the frequency of major warmings through reduction of planetary wave propagation into the PNJ region. Variability in SSTs weakens the PNJ and significantly increases the major warming frequency due to enhanced wave forcing. Even extreme climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) do not influence the total frequency but determine the prewarming phase of major warmings. The amplitude and duration of major warmings seem to be mainly determined by internal stratospheric variability. We also suggest that SST variability, two-way ocean/atmosphere coupling, and hence the memory of the ocean are needed to reproduce the observed tropospheric negative Northern Annular Mode pattern after major warmings.