ALBERT

Description: Advances in L-band microwave satellite radiometry in the past decade, pioneered by ESA's SMOS and NASA's Aquarius and SMAP missions, have demonstrated an unprecedented capability to observe global sea surface salinity (SSS) from space. Measurements from these missions are the only means to probe the very-near surface salinity (top cm), providing a unique monitoring capability for the interfacial exchanges of water between the atmosphere and the upper-ocean, and delivering a wealth of information on various salinity processes in the ocean, linkages with the climate and water cycle, including land-sea connections, and providing constraints for ocean prediction models. The satellite SSS data are complimentary to the existing in situ systems such as Argo that provide accurate depiction of large-scale salinity variability in the open ocean but under-sample mesoscale variability, coastal oceans and marginal seas, and energetic regions such as boundary currents and fronts. In particular, salinity remote sensing has proven valuable to systematically monitor the open oceans as well as coastal regions up to approximately 40 km from the coasts. This is critical to addressing societally relevant topics, such as land-sea linkages, coastal-open ocean exchanges, research in the carbon cycle, near-surface mixing, and air-sea exchange of gas and mass. In this paper, we provide a community perspective on the major achievements of satellite SSS for the aforementioned topics, the unique capability of satellite salinity observing system and its complementarity with other platforms, uncertainty characteristics of satellite SSS, and measurement versus sampling errors in relation to in situ salinity measurements. We also discuss the need for technological innovations to improve the accuracy, resolution, and coverage of satellite SSS, and the way forward to both continue and enhance salinity remote sensing as part of the integrated Earth Observing System in order to address societal needs.

Description: The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.

Description: Spaceborne sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements provided by the European Space Agency's (ESA) “Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity” (SMOS) and the National Aeronautical Space Agency's (NASA) “Aquarius/SAC-D” missions, covering the period from May 2012 to April 2013, are compared against in situ salinity measurements obtained in the northern North Atlantic between 20°N and 80°N. In cold water, SMOS SSS fields show a temperature-dependent negative SSS bias of up to −2 g/kg for temperatures 〈5°C. Removing this bias significantly reduces the differences to independent ship-based thermosalinograph data but potentially corrects simultaneously also other effects not related to temperature, such as land contamination or radio frequency interference (RFI). The resulting time-mean bias, averaged over the study area, amounts to 0.1 g/kg. A respective correction applied previously by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to the Aquarius data is shown here to have successfully removed an SST-related bias in our study area. For both missions, resulting spatial structures of SSS variability agree very well with those available from an eddy-resolving numerical simulation and from Argo data and, additionally they also show substantial salinity changes on monthly and seasonal time scales. Some fraction of the root-mean-square difference between in situ, and SMOS and Aquarius data (approximately 0.9 g/kg) can be attributed to short time scale ocean processes, notably at the Greenland shelf, and could represent associated sampling errors there.

Description: A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use. MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years.

Description: Five initialization and ensemble generation methods are investigated with respect to their impact on the prediction skill of the German decadal prediction system "Mittelfristige Klimaprognose" (MiKlip). Among the tested methods, three tackle aspects of model‐consistent initialization using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the filtered anomaly initialization (FAI) and the initialization method by partially coupled spin‐up (MODINI). The remaining two methods alter the ensemble generation: the ensemble dispersion filter (EDF) corrects each ensemble member with the ensemble mean during model integration. And the bred vectors (BV) perturb the climate state using the fastest growing modes. The new methods are compared against the latest MiKlip system in the low‐resolution configuration (Preop‐LR), which uses lagging the climate state by a few days for ensemble generation and nudging toward ocean and atmosphere reanalyses for initialization. Results show that the tested methods provide an added value for the prediction skill as compared to Preop‐LR in that they improve prediction skill over the eastern and central Pacific and different regions in the North Atlantic Ocean. In this respect, the EnKF and FAI show the most distinct improvements over Preop‐LR for surface temperatures and upper ocean heat content, followed by the BV, the EDF and MODINI. However, no single method exists that is superior to the others with respect to all metrics considered. In particular, all methods affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in different ways, both with respect to the basin‐wide long‐term mean and variability, and with respect to the temporal evolution at the 26° N latitude.

Description: The Sea surface KInematics Multiscale monitoring (SKIM) satellite mission is designed to explore ocean surface current and waves. This includes tropical currents, notably the unknown patterns of divergence and their impact on the ocean heat budget near the Equator, monitoring of the emerging Arctic up to 82.5$(\circ)$N. SKIM will also make unprecedented direct measurements of strong currents, from boundary currents to the Antarctic circumpolar current, and their interaction with ocean waves with expected impacts on air-sea fluxes and extreme waves. For the first time, SKIM will directly measure the ocean surface current vector from space. The main instrument on SKIM is a Ka-band conically scanning, multi-beam Doppler radar altimeter/wave scatterometer that includes a state-of-the-art nadir beam comparable to the Poseidon-4 instrument on Sentinel 6. The well proven Doppler pulse-pair technique will give a surface drift velocity representative of the top two meters of the ocean, after subtracting a large wave-induced contribution. Horizontal velocity components will be obtained with an accuracy better than 7 cm/s for horizontal wavelengths larger than 80~km and time resolutions larger than 15 days, with a mean revisit time of 4 days for of 99\% of the global oceans. This will provide unique and innovative measurements that will further our understanding of the transports in the upper ocean layer, permanently distributing heat, carbon, plankton, and plastics. SKIM will also benefit from co-located measurements of water vapor, rain rate, sea ice concentration, and wind vectors provided by the European operational satellite MetOp-SG(B), allowing many joint analyses. SKIM is one of the two candidate satellite missions under development for ESA Earth Explorer 9. The other candidate is the Far infrared Radiation Understanding and Monitoring (FORUM). The final selection will be announced by September 2019, for a launch in the coming decade.

Description: Auf 32 Seiten geben die beiden Wissenschaftsverbände einen verständlichen Überblick zum Meeresspiegelanstieg. 14 Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler unterschiedlicher Forschungseinrichtungen ordnen gemeinsam die Informationen ein, die immer wieder in der Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden, und erklären die wichtigsten Zusammenhänge und zugrundeliegenden Prozesse in klaren Worten. Damit bietet die Broschüre Orientierung in Bezug auf plausible Zukunftsszenarien, und hilft, die Risiken besser einzuschätzen. Zusätzlich erläutern die Forschenden die Situation an den deutschen Küsten, denn Klimawandel und Meeresspiegelanstieg betreffen auch die Nord- und Ostsee.

Description: Diese Broschüre gibt einen verständlichen Überblick über den wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisstand zur Golfstromzirkulation. Forscherinnen und Forscher ordnen verwirrende und oft widersprüchliche Informationen ein, die in der Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden. Die Broschüre bietet Orientierung über plausible Zukunftsszenarien und relevante Forschungsfragen.