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  • Articles  (10)
  • English  (10)
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  • English  (10)
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  • 1
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    Proceedings of the DENDROSYMPOSIUM 2015 : May 20th - 23rd, 2015 in Sevilla, Spain (2016)
    GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    In:  Scientific Technical Report
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: This publication is a result of the 14th TRACE conference (Tree Rings in Archaeology, Climatology and Ecology) organized by the Department Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems of the University Pablo de Olavide (UPO) and the Association for Tree-ring Research (ATR), in collaboration with Pyrenean Institute of Ecology-Spanish National Research Council (IPE-CSIC), University of Barcelona (UB), Forest and Wood Technology Research Centre (CETEMAS) and University of Valladolid (UVa). The TRACE 2015 conference was held on May 20-23, 2015 for the first time in the Iberian Peninsula, in Sevilla, Spain.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    Simulating the Southern Ocean with a physical-biogeochemical model (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-05-02
    Description: We present a regional ocean model for an Antarctic circumpolar quarter-degree domain. The model uses ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System), with ocean-ice shelf thermodynamics parametrisation and BEC (Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling model) biogeochemistry for the ocean and CICE6.1.3 (Community Ice CodE) for the sea-ice. The models are coupled with MCT (The Model Coupling Toolkit). We show analysis of hindcast runs with ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) and ERA-Interim (ECMWF Re-Analysis ERA-Interim) atmospheric forcing to assess the performance of the model. The model reproduces a rather realistic looking sea ice and hydrography. The model is used as part of the EU-funded Polar Regions in Earth System (PolarRES) project to get better understanding on sea-ice and ocean processes under present and future conditions.
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    A proxy-based model for estimating V30 in the Iberian Peninsula (2022)
    In:  Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-20
    Description: The time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the ground, VS30, is a key soil descriptor for estimating site response despite its recognized limitations. It is employed in both, site-specific probabilistic hazard assessments (PSHAs) and regional seismic codes. This work presents a model for estimating VS30 in the Iberian Peninsula as a function of three proxies: topographic slope, geological age and lithology at each site. Tasks accomplished include: 1) gathering existing Vs profiles and calculating their VS30; 2) defining an adequate set of representative age and lithological groups; 3) classifying the available VS profiles according to these groups; and 4) carrying out a regression analysis between VS30, slopes, age and lithological groups. Based on the regression analysis and the dependency on the slope, some of the initially proposed groups were amalgamated, before proposing the final model. This model considers topographic slope values extracted from a digital elevation model (DEM) with 200 m horizontal resolution, plus six geological age groups and four lithological groups. It provides an estimate of the mean and standard deviation of (and hence VS30), which can be used for sites without direct estimates of velocity profiles (and VS30) in the Iberian Peninsula.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems evolution in CMIP6 Scenarios (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-25
    Description: Upwelling along ocean’s eastern boundaries is expected to intensify due to coastal wind strengthening driven by the increasing land-sea pressure gradient, according to the Bakun’s hypothesis; and therefore assessing the future impacts of Global Warming on upwelling processes remains crucial for efficient ecosystem management. Here, we apply a new index to test Bakun’s hypothesis based on deseasonalized sea surface temperature (SST). The SST trends in the upwelling cells were directly compared to those in open ocean waters through the angle between the two linear trends. As proposed by Bakun, the trends in the open ocean and upwelling cells are expected to differ greatly, resulting in a higher angle between the trends in both locations. The index supported intensification in all Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS), revealing a coherent pattern within EBUS in the same ocean (12º for the Pacific Ocean and 20º for the Atlantic Ocean). To assess the future impact, we compared, and verified, and the ten high-resolution models from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project that presented the best performance for capturing the upwelling process, with the SST AVHRR/NOAA reanalysis dataset. Based on the agreement with the observations of the historical run, a reference model is selected, and the remaining models are used to evaluate the uncertainty. Three socio-economics share pathways (SSP1.26, SSP2.45 and SSP5.85) of the IPCC scenarios were considered for each model, covering the full range of the future projections.
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Geodetic exploration of elastic/inelastic behavior of the Earth's crust with time-dependent deformation (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-20
    Description: Crustal deformation is analyzed assuming an elastic medium in most cases. However, inelastic deformation plays an important role in various crustal processes such as tectonic stress accumulation and long-term topographic formation. We have been trying to isolate inelastic deformation signals from geodetic observation data. The M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake has brought a unique opportunity in this regard. The postseismic deformation pattern was reversed from the interseismic one. However, along the concentrated contraction zone along the Japan Sea coast, we identified persistent localized contraction before and after the Tohoku earthquake, which is considered to be an inelastic contribution. The identified inelastic strain rate is consistent with the geologically estimated value, indicating a contribution of inelastic processes to long-term deformation. Associated with the Tohoku earthquake, crustal deformation of the Japan island arc has been time-dependent. Since the strain components change in time satisfying the stress equilibrium, time-dependent strain rate data allows us to estimate the heterogeneous distribution of elastic properties and inelastic contribution. Also, we can assume that the observed strain can be considered a sum of elastic and inelastic strains. By assuming the plane stress condition, elastic deformation of the crust can be predicted with an appropriate boundary condition. Then the residuals can be considered inelastic contributions. We will present an overview of these approaches and their applications to GNSS data in Japan to demonstrate how the exploration works, together with their tectonic implications.
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Gibbs states and Brownian models for haze and cloud droplets (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-01
    Description: Condensation is the dominating growth mechanism of small droplets in developing clouds. In this regard, the standard theory of Köhler for droplet formation gives the saturation conditions by which an aerosol particle is in equilibrium with its surrounding environment or, contrarily, grows unboundedly due to condensation. While this theory provides clear-cut threshold supersaturation values for droplet activation, clouds are eminently turbulent, subject to environmental constraints and are composed of large families of droplets competing for water vapor. This work proposes a nonlinear stochastic framework to extend this standard theory in order to account for (i) turbulent effects on droplet de/activation, and (ii) stagnating environmental conditions in the condensational growth equation. The latter effects are modelled by a nonlinear sink term modifying Köhler’s equation and the former by stochastic perturbations driven by white noise.The resulting Brownian models allow for dynamic transitions between haze and cloud droplets under fluctuations of supersaturation, yielding a hysteresis phenomenon when the latter is varying slowly and monotonically like an ascending air parcel. In our Brownian models, particle's size distributions are described by Gibbs states. Comparisons with experimental data obtained from closed chamber clouds are conducted. The results show that predictions made by Gibbs states match to a high-degree of accuracy the experimentally obtained distributions. Concretely, our Brownian models can predict bimodal distributions in which haze and activated droplets coexist, when the standard theory cannot. With such attributes, we believe that our Brownian modelling framework might provide a basis for future developments of cloud droplet activation parameterizations.
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Coseismic and postseismic slip observed on the Cerro Prieto Basin faults caused by the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah 2010 earthquake (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-29
    Description: Deformation in the Cerro Prieto pull apart basin (CP) located between Cerro Prieto and Imperial faults on the Mexican part of San Andreas System was studied for years. Leveling was realized in the basin by different agencies since 60’s, DInSAR analisis and GPS observations were realized many times since 1997. Since the subsidence caused by geothermal water extraction in the Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field affected the faults in the basin subsequently geotechnical instruments were installed for continuous monitoring. The creep and episodic slip were observed on the basin faults before the 2010 earthquake. When the M7.2 EMC strikes all the geotechnical instruments, installed on the CP faults, recorded displacements triggered by the earthquake. However, the post-seismic behavior of the records varies, and 3 typical behaviors can be distinguished: 1) the creeping has similar magnitude before and after the earthquake, 2) the deformation rate after the earthquake increases and 3) the cessation of creep on the fault for up to 6 years after which the creep reactivated with a magnitude similar to that before the earthquake. Applying an empirical relationship between magnitude and stress, the accelerometer data and Coulomb 3 modeling, we found that the dynamic stress is responsible for the triggering. For post-seismic behavior, the Coulomb static stress changes caused by the EMC earthquake, by tectonic stresses and by fluid extraction in the Cerro Prieto geothermal field are analyzed. It can be concluded that the EMC shadow is causing creeping cessation on the faults closest to the epicenter.
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Improved prediction skill of extremely warm European summers by using sub-decadal North Atlantic heat inertia (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-29
    Description: The frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, severe storms, and extreme precipitation has increased dramatically in recent years and is expected to further increase with rising global temperatures. Extreme weather events and their changing characteristic due to rising global temperatures have a large societal impact. Exemplary, extremely warm summers can lead to severe health problems and are thus associated with an increased mortality. Furthermore, economic impacts, such as crop failure and water shortage, and political aspects, such as climate migration and general crisis management are associated with extremely warm summers. Reliable and precise predictability years in advance of these high-impact events would be crucial to reduce potential impacts. We use the demonstrated processes connecting the North Atlantic circulation and European temperatures (Hellmich et al., in review) to enhance the prediction skill of extremely warm European summers. The North Atlantic heat inertia can drive extremely warm European summers on sub-decadal time scales, thus acting as a precursor for the occurrence of such extreme events. Here we demonstrate how the sub-decadal North Atlantic heat inertia can be used to predict extremely warm European summers several years in advance, using a decadal hindcast ensemble based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth system model.
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Geological controls on geothermal resources for power generation (2021)
    In:  Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Threats posed by the climate crisis have created an urgent need for sustainable green energy. Geothermal resources have the potential to provide up to 150 GWe of sustainable energy by 2050. However, the key challenge in successfully locating and drilling geothermal wells is to understand how the heterogeneous structure of the subsurface controls the existence of exploitable fluid reservoirs. In this Review, we discuss how key geological factors contribute to the profitable utilization of intermediate-temperature to high-temperature geothermal resources for power generation. The main driver of geothermal activity is elevated crustal heat flow, which is focused in regions of active magmatism and/or crustal thinning. Permeable structures such as faults exercise a primary control on local fluid flow patterns, with most upflow zones residing in complex fault interaction zones. Major risks in geothermal resource assessment and operation include locating sufficient permeability for fluid extraction, in addition to declining reservoir pressure and the potential of induced seismicity. Advanced computational methods permit effective integration of multiple datasets and, thus, can reduce potential risks. Future innovations involve engineered geothermal systems as well as supercritical and offshore geothermal resources, which could greatly expand the global application of geothermal energy but require detailed knowledge of the respective geological conditions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 10
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    The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE): Implementation, results, and roadmap for the second phase (2023)
    In:  Future Generation Computer Systems
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-21
    Description: The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) develops exascale transition capabilities in the domain of Solid Earth, an area of geophysics rich in computational challenges embracing different approaches to exascale (capability, capacity, and urgent computing). The first implementation phase of the project (ChEESE-1P; 2018–2022) addressed scientific and technical computational challenges in seismology, tsunami science, volcanology, and magnetohydrodynamics, in order to understand the phenomena, anticipate the impact of natural disasters, and contribute to risk management. The project initiated the optimisation of 10 community flagship codes for the upcoming exascale systems and implemented 12 Pilot Demonstrators that combine the flagship codes with dedicated workflows in order to address the underlying capability and capacity computational challenges. Pilot Demonstrators reaching more mature Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) were further enabled in operational service environments on critical aspects of geohazards such as long-term and short-term probabilistic hazard assessment, urgent computing, and early warning and probabilistic forecasting. Partnership and service co-design with members of the project Industry and User Board (IUB) leveraged the uptake of results across multiple research institutions, academia, industry, and public governance bodies (e.g. civil protection agencies). This article summarises the implementation strategy and the results from ChEESE-1P, outlining also the underpinning concepts and the roadmap for the on-going second project implementation phase (ChEESE-2P; 2023–2026).
    Language: English
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