ALBERT

Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.

Description: Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

Description: The Andean Orogeny is the result of the upper-plate crustal shortening during the Cenozoic Nazca plate subduction beneath South America plate. With up to ~300 km shortening, the Earths second highest Altiplano-Puna Plateau was formed with a pronounced N-S oriented deformation diversity. Furthermore, the tectonic shortening in the Southern Andes was much less intensive and started much later. The mechanism of the shortening and the nature of N-S variation of its magnitude remain controversial. The previous studies of the Central Andes suggested that they might be related to the N-S variation in the strength of the lithosphere, friction coupling at slab interface, and are probably influenced by the interaction of the climate and tectonic systems. However, the exact nature of the strength variation was not explored due to the lack of high numerical resolution and 3D numerical models at that time. Here we will employ large-scale subduction models with a high resolution to reveal and quantify the factors controlling the strength of lithospheric structures and their effect on the magnitude of tectonic shortening in the South America plate between 18-35S. These high-resolution models are performed by using the highly scalable parallel 3D code LaMEM (Lithosphere and Mantle Evolution Model). This code is based on finite difference staggered grid approach and employs massive linear and non-linear solvers within the PETSc library to complete high-performance MPI-based parallelization in geodynamic modeling. Currently, in addition to benchmark-models we are developing high-resolution (〈 1km) 2D subduction models with application to Nazca-South America convergence. In particular, we will present the models focusing on the effect of friction reduction in the Paleozoic-Cenozoic sediments above the uppermost crust in the Subandean Ranges. Future work will be focused on the origin of different styles of deformation and topography evolution in Altiplano-Puna Plateau and Central-Southern Andes through 3D modeling of large-scale interaction of subducting and overriding plates.

Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM). In this online data product, the hazard results are provided by hazard curves calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI), distributed in the North-East Atlantic (1,076 POIs), the Mediterranean Sea (1,130 POIs), and the Black Sea (137 POIs) at an average spacing of ~20 km. For each POI, hazard curves are given for the mean, 2nd, 16th, 50th, 84th, and 98th percentiles. Maps derived from hazard curves are Probability maps for Maximum Inundation Heights (MIH) of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 meters; Hazard maps for Average Return Periods (ARP) of 500, 1,000, 2,500, 5,000, 10,000 years. For each map, precalculated displays are provided for the mean, the 16th percentile, and the 84th percentile. All data are also made accessible through an interactive web mapper and through Open Geospatial Consortium standard protocols. The model was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26).

Description: Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH 〉5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH 〉3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH 〉1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Description: We propose the use of variable resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models for risk assessment to various natural hazards. Such a framework is especially beneficial when the spatial distribution of the considered hazards presents intensity measures with contrasting footprints and spatial correlations, such as in coastal environments. This work avoids the incorrect assumption that a single intensity value from hazards with low spatial correlation (e.g. tsunami) can be considered to be representative within large-sized geo-cells for physical vulnerability assessment, without, at the same time, increasing the complexity of the overall model. We present decoupled earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk estimates for the residential building stock of Lima (Peru). We observe that earthquake loss models for far-field subduction sources are practically insensitive to the exposure resolution. Conversely, tsunami loss models and associated uncertainties depend on the spatial correlations of the hazard intensities as well as on the resolution of the exposure models. We note that for the portfolio located in the coastal area exposed to both perils in Lima, the ground shaking dominates the losses for lowermagnitude earthquakes, whilst tsunamis cause the most damage for larger-magnitude events. For the latter, two sets of existing empirical flow depth fragility models are used, resulting in large differences in the calculated losses. This study, therefore, raises awareness about the uncertainties associated with the selection of fragility models and spatial aggregation entities for exposure modelling and loss mapping.

Description: Controls on the deformation pattern (shortening mode and tectonic style) of orogenic forelands during lithospheric shortening remain poorly understood. Here, we use high-resolution 2D thermomechanical models to demonstrate that orogenic crustal thickness and foreland lithospheric thickness significantly control the shortening mode in the foreland. Pure-shear shortening occurs when the orogenic crust is not thicker than the foreland crust or thick, but the foreland lithosphere is thin (〈70–80 km, as in the Puna foreland case). Conversely, simple-shear shortening, characterized by foreland underthrusting beneath the orogen, arises when the orogenic crust is much thicker. This thickened crust results in high gravitational potential energy in the orogen, which triggers the migration of deformation to the foreland under further shortening. Our models present fully thick-skinned, fully thin-skinned, and intermediate tectonic styles in the foreland. The first tectonics forms in a pure-shear shortening mode whereas the others require a simple-shear mode and the presence of thick (〉∼4 km) sediments that are mechanically weak (friction coefficient 〈∼0.05) or weakened rapidly during deformation. The formation of fully thin-skinned tectonics in thick and weak foreland sediments, as in the Subandean Ranges, requires the strength of the orogenic upper lithosphere to be less than one-third as strong as that of the foreland upper lithosphere. Our models successfully reproduce foreland deformation patterns in the Central and Southern Andes and the Laramide province.

Description: The Andes were formed by Cenozoic tectonic shortening of the South American plate margin overriding the subducting Nazca Plate. Using coupled, thermo-mechanical, numerical modeling of the dynamic interaction between subducting and overriding plates, we searched for factors controlling the intensity of the tectonic shortening. From our modeling, constrained by geological and geophysical observations, we infer that the most important factor was fast and accelerating (from 2 to 3 cm yr(hoch)-1) westward drift of the South American Plate, whereas possible changes in the convergence rate were not as important. Other important factors are the crustal structure of the overriding plate and the shear coupling at the plate interface. The model in which the South American Plate has a thick (40-45 km at 35 Ma) crust and relatively high friction coefficient (0.05) at the Nazca-South American plate interface generates more than 300 km of tectonic shortening over the past 35 million years and replicates well the crustal structure and evolution of the high Central Andes, However, modeling does not confirm that possible climate-controlled changes to the sedimentary trench-fill during the last 30 million years might have significantly influenced the upperplate shortening rate. The model with initially thinner (less than 40 km) continental crust and a lower friction coefficient (less than 0.015) results in less than 40 ikm of shortening in the South American Plate, replicating the situation in the Southern Andes. During upper-plate deformation, the processes that cause a reduction in lithospheric strength and an increase in interplate coupling are particularly important. The most significant of these processes appears to be: (1) delamination of the lower crust and mantle lithosphere, driven by gabbro-eclogite transformation in the thickening lower crust, and (2) mechanical failure of the foreland sediments. The modeling demonstrates that delaminating lithosphere interacts with subduction-zone corner flow, influencing both the rate of tectonic shortening and magmatic-arc productivity, and suggests an anti-correlation between these two parameters. Our model also predicts that the down-dip limit of the frictional coupling domain between the Nazca and South American Plates should be ~15-20 km deeper in the Southern Andes (south of 28° S) compared to the high Central Andes, which is consistent with GPS and seismological observations.