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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-12-12
    Description: Strain energy from tectonic loading can be partly released through aseismic creep. Earthquake repeaters, repeatedly activated brittle fault patches surrounded by creep, indicate steady‐state creep that affects the amount of seismic energy available for the next large earthquake along a plate contact. The offshore Main Marmara Fault (MMF) of the North Anatolian Fault Zone represents a seismic gap capable of generating a M 〉 7 earthquake in direct vicinity to the mega‐city Istanbul. Based on a newly compiled seismicity catalog, we identify repeating earthquakes to resolve the spatial creep variability along the MMF during a 15‐year period. We observe a maximum of seismic repeaters indicating creep along the central and western MMF segments tapering off toward the locked onshore Ganos fault in the west, and the locked offshore Princes Islands segment immediately south of Istanbul in the east. This indicates a high degree of spatial creep variability along the Istanbul‐Marmara seismic gap.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The relative motion of tectonic plates deforms these plates along their contact zone until the plate contact ruptures in an earthquake. However, some of this deformation can be released without earthquakes by so‐called aseismic creep in which the plates creep past each other. Within this creep zone, sometimes some brittle patches exist that interlock during the plate creep and rupture repeatedly in smaller earthquakes that are very similar. They are called earthquake repeaters. In the Sea of Marmara south of Istanbul lies the contact between the Eurasian and the Anatolian plates, the so‐called Main Marmara Fault (MMF). This plate contact did not rupture for a long time and thus a large magnitude event is expected here. We observe a large number of earthquake repeaters in the western offshore part of the MMF while no earthquake repeaters are found toward the east south of Istanbul or onshore toward the west. These areas seem to be locked and might accumulate deformation for a future large earthquake. The zones in between show an intermediate behavior with fewer earthquake repeaters indicating less creep. These results are important for the seismic risk and hazard assessment for the mega‐city of Istanbul.
    Description: Key Points: Earthquake repeaters along the Main Marmara Fault are identified based on a newly derived homogeneous earthquake catalog spanning 15 years. Seismic creep estimated from these repeaters is highly variable along‐strike with higher creep values along the western part. A repeating earthquake sequence showing accelerated activity after a nearby Mw 5.2 earthquake is observed.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.2.2023.002
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/TU
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/KO
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/PZ
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/TB
    Description: http://alomax.free.fr/nlloc/
    Description: https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/%7Efelixw/hypoDD.html
    Description: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3407866
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gc008515
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; repeating earthquakes ; Marmara Sea ; fault creep ; seismic cyle ; seismic gap
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-12-05
    Description: Earthquakes and slow‐slip events interact, however, detailed studies investigating their interplay are still limited. We generate the highest resolution microseismicity catalog to date for the northern Armutlu Peninsula in a ∼1‐year period to perform a detailed seismicity distribution analysis and correlate the results with a local, geodetically observed slow‐slip transient within the same period. Seismicity shows a transition of cluster‐type behavior from swarm‐like to burst‐like, accompanied by an increasing relative proportion of clustered (non‐Poissonian) relative to background (Poissonian) seismicity and gradually decreasing b‐value as the geodetically observed slow‐slip transient ends. The observed slow‐slip transient decay correlates with gradually increasing effective‐stress‐drop values. The observed correlation between the b‐value and geodetic transient highlights the influence of aseismic deformation on seismic deformation and the impact of slow‐slip transients on local seismic hazard.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Seismic and aseismic slip on faults can change the stress state in the crust and affect the recurrence time of earthquakes. Observations of how earthquakes and aseismic fault slip influence each other are limited because of the dearth of synchronous high‐resolution seismological and geodetic data. Here we use high‐resolution earthquake data in the northern Armutlu Peninsula along the Marmara seismic gap of the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) to correlate the earthquake distribution with a local slow‐slip transient that occurred in the same period. We find that the slow‐slip transient modulates the spatiotemporal and frequency‐magnitude evolution of earthquakes, which highlights the influence of slow fault creep on fast fault slip. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering slow‐slip transients for seismic hazard assessment.
    Description: Key Points: Seismicity analysis suggests that both external and internal forcing drive deformation in the Armutlu Peninsula. Temporal correlation between a slow‐slip transient and seismic b‐value highlights interactions between aseismic and seismic deformation. Slow‐slip transients modulate the frequency‐magnitude and spatiotemporal earthquake distribution.
    Description: VW momentum grant
    Description: Helmotz Association Young Investigator Group http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: Helmholtz‐Zentrum Potsdam—Deutsches GeoForschungs Zentrum GFZ, GIPP http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010956
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; microseismicity ; enhanced catalog ; near‐fault monitoring ; seismic‐aseismic deformation ; slow‐slip transient
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-11-26
    Description: We investigate induced seismicity associated with a hydraulic stimulation campaign performed in 2020 in the 5.8 km deep geothermal OTN‐2 well near Helsinki, Finland as part of the St1 Deep Heat project. A total of 2,875 m3 of fresh water was injected during 16 days at well‐head pressures 〈70 MPa and with flow rates between 400 and 1,000 L/min. The seismicity was monitored using a high‐resolution seismic network composed of 10 borehole geophones surrounding the project site and a borehole array of 10 geophones located in adjacent OTN‐3 well. A total of 6,121 induced earthquakes with local magnitudes MLHel〉−1.9 ${M}_{\mathrm{L}}^{\mathrm{H}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{l}} 〉 -1.9$ were recorded during and after the stimulation campaign. The analyzed statistical parameters include magnitude‐frequency b‐value, interevent time and interevent time ratio, as well as magnitude correlations. We find that the b‐value remained stationary for the entire injection period suggesting limited stress build‐up or limited fracture network coalescence in the reservoir. The seismicity during the stimulation neither shows signatures of magnitude correlations, nor temporal clustering or anticlustering beyond those arising from varying injection rates. The interevent time statistics are characterized by a Poissonian time‐varying distribution. The calculated parameters indicate no earthquake interaction. Focal mechanisms suggest that the injection activated a spatially distributed network of similarly oriented fractures. The seismicity displays stable behavior with no signatures pointing toward a runaway event. The cumulative seismic moment is proportional to the cumulative hydraulic energy and the maximum magnitude is controlled by injection rate. The performed study provides a base for implementation of time‐dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the project site.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: We investigate anthropogenic seismicity associated with fluid injection into the 5.8 km deep geothermal OTN‐2 well near Helsinki, Finland, as a part of St1 Deep Heat Project. A total of 2,875 m3 of fresh water was injected during 16 days at well‐head pressures 〈70 MPa and with flow rates between 400 and 1,000 L/min. The seismicity was monitored using a seismic network composed of 20 borehole geophones located in Helsinki area and in the OTN‐3 well located close by the injection site. A total of 6,121 earthquakes indicating fractures of 1–30 m size were recorded during and after stimulation campaign. Using a handful of statistical properties derived from earthquake catalog we found no indication for earthquakes being triggered by other earthquakes. Instead, the earthquake activity rates, as well as the maximum earthquake size stayed proportional to the fluid injection rate. The spatio‐temporal behavior of seismicity and its properties suggest earthquakes occurred not on a single fault, but in a distributed network of similarly oriented fractures, limiting the possibility for occurrence of violent earthquakes. The performed study provides evidence that the induced seismicity due to injection performed within St1 Deep Heat project is stable and allow to constrain seismic hazard.
    Description: Key Points: Induced seismicity associated with stimulation campaign in a 5.8 km deep geothermal OTN‐2 well passively responds to injection operations. Seismicity is a non‐stationary Poisson process with seismicity rate and maximum magnitude modulated by the hydraulic energy input rate. Seismicity clusters in space and time in response to fluid injection but no interaction between earthquakes is observed.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.2.2022.001
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; induced seismicity ; hydraulic stimulation ; earthquake clustering ; earthquake interactions ; Poissonian distribution ; magnitude correlations ; interevent times
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-10-24
    Description: Small stress changes such as those from sea level fluctuations can be large enough to trigger earthquakes. If small and large earthquakes initiate similarly, high‐resolution catalogs with low detection thresholds are best suited to illuminate such processes. Below the Sea of Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault, a segment of ≈ $\approx $150 km is late in its seismic cycle. We generated high‐resolution seismicity catalogs for a hydrothermal region in the eastern Sea of Marmara employing AI‐based and template matching techniques to investigate the link between sea level fluctuations and seismicity over 6 months. All high resolution catalogs show that local seismicity rates are larger during time periods shortly after local minima of sea level, when it is already rising. Local strainmeters indicate that seismicity is promoted when the ratio of differential to areal strain is the largest. The strain changes from sea level variations, on the order of 30–300 nstrain, are sufficient to promote seismicity.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Quasi‐periodic phenomena are a natural probe to test how the Earth's responses to a certain stress perturbation. High‐resolution catalogs with low detection thresholds may provide a new opportunity to look for this type of earthquake triggering. A segment of 150 km below the Sea of Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault is late in its seismic cycle. Here, we generated high‐resolution seismicity catalogs for 6 months covering a hydrothermal region south of Istanbul in the eastern Sea of Marmara including seismicity up to MW 4.5. For first time in this region, we document a strong effect of the Sea of Marmara water level changes on the local seismicity. Both high‐resolution catalogs show that local seismicity rates are significantly larger during time periods shortly after local minima on sea level, when the sea level is rising. The available local instrumentation provided an estimate of the strain changes that were sufficient to promote seismicity. If such small stress perturbations from sea level changes are enough to trigger seismicity, it may suggest that the region is very close to failure.
    Description: Key Points: We generated enhanced seismicity catalogs to investigate the potential link between sea level change and seismicity in a hydrothermal region. Higher seismicity rates from the entire and declustered catalogs are observed during time periods when sea level is rising. Strain estimates from local strainmeters show that seismicity was promoted during reduced normal and enhanced shear strain conditions.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: National Aeronautics and Space Administration http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000104
    Description: VW momentum
    Description: https://tdvms.afad.gov.tr/
    Description: http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/2/earthquake-catalog/
    Description: https://www.unavco.org/data/strain-seismic/bsm-data/bsm-data.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; seismicity catalog ; sea level change ; hydrothermal region ; strain ; strainmeter ; solid Earth tides
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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