ALBERT

Beschreibung: A series of realistic simulation studies is being conducted as a cooperative effort between the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA), to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of future observing systems on large scale numerical weather prediction. A special objective is to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies. Following a brief review of previous simulation studies and real data impact tests, the methodology for the current simulation system will be described. Results from an assessment of the realism of the simulation system and of the potential impact of advanced observing systems on numerical weather prediction and preliminary results utilizing this system will be presented at the conference.

Beschreibung: The thermal-infrared (longwave) emission from a vegetated terrain is generally anisotropic, i.e., the emission temperature varies with the view direction. If a directional measurement of temperature is considered to be equal to the effective temperature of the hemispheric emission, then the estimate of the latter can be significantly in error. The view-direction (zenith angle theta(sub eq) at which the emission equivalence does hold is determined in our modeling study. In a two-temperature field-of-view (soil and plants), theta(sub eq) falls in a narrow range depending on plant density and canopy architecture. Theta(sub eq) does not depend on soil and (uniform) plant temperatures nor on their ratio, even though the pattern of emission vs. the view direction depends crucially on this ratio. For a sparse canopy represented as thin, vertical cylindrical stalks (or vertical blades uniformly distributed in azimuth) with horizontal facets, theta(sub eq) ranges from 48 to 53 deg depending on the optical density of the vertical elements alone. When plant elements are modeled as small spheres, theta(sub eq) lies between 53 to 57 deg (for the same values of the canopy optical density). Only for horizontal leaves (a truly planophile canopy) is the temperature measured from any direction equal to the temperature of the hemispheric emission. When the emission temperature changes with optical depth within the canopy at a specified rate, theta(sub eq) depends to some extent on that rate. For practically any sparsely vegetated surface, a directional measurement at the zenith angle of 50 deg offers an appropriate evaluation of the hemispheric emission, since the error in the estimate will, at most, only slightly exceed 1% (around 4 W/sq m). Estimates of the hemispheric emission through a nadir measurement, on the other hand, can be in error in some cases by about 10%, i.e., on the order of 40 W/sq m.

Beschreibung: The GLA retrieval scheme for the analysis of HIRS and MSU radiances is applied to derive cloud and humidity fields from the HIRS2/MSU data for June 1979. For the retrieval of cloud fraction and cloud top pressure, the original algorithm of Susskind et al. (1983) and Susskind et al. (1984) was improved. The derived profiles of the monthly mean fields of cloud fraction and cloud top pressure clearly show the intertropical convergence zone, with the most intense convection in the monsoonal region of the southern Asia and over Central America, which show up as containing the highest cloud top levels and largest cloud amount. For the retrieval of humidity profiles, which are not one of the products of the original processing system, a new algorithm was derived.

Beschreibung: Algorithms for determining total ozone content and humidity from HIRS2/MSU data are examined. The methods are based on the ability to accurately model the response of a given channel to changes in a given atmospheric component. The steps of the iterative relaxation method for determining atmospheric water vapor and ozone content are described. Examples of retrieved fields of total ozone and precipitable water are presented.

Beschreibung: The features and preliminary results from a simulation system being implemented to develop realistic estimates of the impacts future data acquisition systems will have on large-scale numerical weather simulation are described. The new instruments may include advanced passive IR and microwave satellite sensors, as well as active scatterometer and lidar sounders. A main goal of the impact study is to identify those sensor systems which will provide the most benefit. The realism of the study is being enhanced by assimilating as much real-world data as possible and generating global weather maps for comparison with maps generated on the bases on the projected new, higher resolution data. Early results have indicated a preference for higher resolution wind data than for temperature data for making 1-5 day forecasts. The prime instrument candidate for collecting the data is lidar, provided the sensor resolution design goals are met.

Beschreibung: The methods used to determine effective cloud fraction (cloud fraction times cloud emissivity at 11-14 microns) and cloud top pressure from analysis of HIRS2/MSU sounding data are described. Identical procedures are used day and night so as to allow for meaningful day-night difference fields. Results are shown for June 1979. The monthly mean effective cloud fraction is 43.4 percent, resulting from a 45.2 percent value at 0300 LT and 41.6 percent at 1500 LT. The retrieved single-day cloud field for June 11 shows good agreement with high spatial resolution visible and infrared imagery.

Beschreibung: A series of experiments have been conducted to examine the sensitivity of forecast skill to various data and data analysis techniques for the 0000 GMT case of January 21, 1979. These include the individual components of the FGGE observing system, the temperatures obtained with different satellite retrieval methods, and the method of vertical interpolation between the mandatory pressure analysis levels and the model sigma levels. It is found that NESS TIROS-N infrared retrievals seriously degrade a rawinsonde-only analysis over land, resulting in a poorer forecast over North America. Less degradation in the 72-hr forecast skill at sea level and some improvement at 500 mb is noted, relative to the control with TIROS-N retrievals produced with a physical inversion method which utilizes a 6-hr forecast first guess. NESS VTPR oceanic retrievals lead to an improved forecast over North America when added to the control.

Beschreibung: The Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences approach to temperature sounding from satellite observations is fundamentally different from that of NESS in that heavy reliance is placed on the ability to model accurately the instrumental response to atmospheric and surface conditions, while no use is made of statistical relationships between satellite observations and atmospheric temperature profiles. The method involves starting with a guess set of atmospheric and surface conditions from which expected brightness temperatures for the satellite observations are computed. Then, iterative relaxation of atmospheric and surface conditions is performed according to the difference between observed and computed brightness temperatures until sufficient agreement is reached. In the absence of sufficient agreement, no retrieval is produced for that location.

Beschreibung: The methods to retrieve cloud parameters from HIRS2/MSU data have been shown to produce qualitatively reasonable cloud fields but to underestimate cloud amount. Improvements have been made to the cloud algorithm which allow for better determination of low clouds. These improvements involve retrieving cloud fields at a higher spatial resolution, which decreases the problems arising from multiple layer clouds, and increasing the number of channels used to determine the cloud parameters from 2 15 microns lower tropospheric sounding channels to 5 channels, including the 11 microns window and 2 15 microns mid and upper tropospheric sounding channels. The use of the 11 microns window channel was very important in identifying low level clouds.