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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 103 (2014): 277-287, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.027.
    Description: Development of forecasting systems for harmful algal blooms (HABs) has been a long-standing research and management goal. Significant progress has been made in the Gulf of Maine, where seasonal bloom forecasts are now being issued annually using Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance maps and a population dynamics model developed for that organism. Thus far these forecasts have used terms such as “significant”, “moderately large” or “moderate” to convey the extent of forecasted paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) outbreaks. In this study, historical shellfish harvesting closure data along the coast of the Gulf of Maine were used to derive a series of bloom severity levels that are analogous to those used to define major storms like hurricanes or tornados. Thirty-four years of PSP-related shellfish closure data for Maine, Massachusetts and New Hampshire were collected and mapped to depict the extent of coastline closure in each year. Due to fractal considerations, different methods were explored for measuring length of coastline closed. Ultimately, a simple procedure was developed using arbitrary straight-line segments to represent specific sections of the coastline. This method was consistently applied to each year’s PSP toxicity closure map to calculate the total length of coastline closed. Maps were then clustered together statistically to yield distinct groups of years with similar characteristics. A series of categories or levels was defined (“Level 1: Limited”, “Level 2: Moderate”, and “Level 3: Extensive”) each with an associated range of expected coastline closed, which can now be used instead of vague descriptors in future forecasts. This will provide scientifically consistent and simply defined information to the public as well as resource managers who make decisions on the basis of the forecasts.
    Description: Research support provided through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants OCE-0430724, and OCE-0911031; and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) Grant 1-P50-ES012742-01, the ECOHAB Grant program through NOAA Grant NA06NOS4780245, and the PCM HAB Grant program through NOAA Grant NA11NOS4780023.
    Keywords: Alexandrium fundyense ; Harmful algal blooms ; HABs ; PSP ; Forecasts
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 103 (2014): 96–111, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.11.003.
    Description: The life cycle of Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine includes a dormant cyst stage that spends the winter predominantly in the bottom sediment. Wave-current bottom stress caused by storms and tides induces resuspension of cyst-containing sediment during winter and spring. Resuspended sediment could be transported by water flow to different locations in the Gulf and the redistribution of sediment containing A. fundyense cysts could alter the spatial and temporal manifestation of its spring bloom. The present study evaluates model near-bottom flow during storms, when sediment resuspension and redistribution are most likely to occur, between October and May when A. fundyense cells are predominantly in cyst form. Simulated water column sediment (mud) concentrations from representative locations of the Gulf are used to initialize particle tracking simulations for the period October 2010–May 2011. Particles are tracked in full three-dimensional model solutions including a sinking velocity characteristic of cyst and aggregated mud settling (0.1 mm s−1). Although most of the material was redeposited near the source areas, small percentages of total resuspended sediment from some locations in the western (~4%) and eastern (2%) Maine shelf and the Bay of Fundy (1%) traveled distances longer than 100 km before resettling. The redistribution changed seasonally and was sensitive to the prescribed sinking rate. Estimates of the amount of cysts redistributed with the sediment were small compared to the inventory of cysts in the upper few centimeters of sediment but could potentially have more relevance immediately after deposition.
    Description: Research support to all authors, except DJM and VAS, was provided by U.S. Geological Survey. DJM gratefully acknowledges financial support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant NA06NOS4780245 for the Gulf of Maine Toxicity (GOMTOX) program) and the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health through National Science Foundation Grant OCE-1314642 and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Grant 1P01ES021923-01. VAS was supported by the North East Consortium Grant NA05NMF4721057.
    Keywords: Sediment connectivity ; Near-bottom circulation ; Harmful Algal Bloom cysts ; Gulf of Maine ; Alexandrium fundyense ; Particle tracking
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 103 (2014): 6-26, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.10.002.
    Description: Here we document Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance and distribution patterns over nine years (1997 and 2004-2011) in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and identify linkages between those patterns and several metrics of the severity or magnitude of blooms occurring before and after each autumn cyst survey. We also explore the relative utility of two measures of cyst abundance and demonstrate that GOM cyst counts can be normalized to sediment volume, revealing meaningful patterns equivalent to those determined with dry weight normalization.Cyst concentrations were highly variable spatially. Two distinct 1 seedbeds (defined here as accumulation zones with 〉 300 cysts cm-3) are evident, one in the Bay of Fundy (BOF) and one in mid-coast Maine. Overall, seedbed locations remained relatively constant through time, but their area varied 3-4 fold, and total cyst abundance more than 10 fold among years. A major expansion of the mid-coast Maine seedbed occurred in 2009 following an unusually intense A. fundyense bloom with visible red-water conditions, but that feature disappeared by late 2010. The regional system thus has only two seedbeds with the bathymetry, sediment characteristics, currents, biology, and environmental conditions necessary to persist for decades or longer. Strong positive correlations were confirmed between the abundance of cysts in both the 0-1 and the 0-3 cm layers of sediments in autumn and geographic measures of the extent of the bloom that occurred the next year (i.e., cysts → blooms), such as the length of coastline closed due to shellfish toxicity or the southernmost latitude of shellfish closures. In general, these metrics of bloom geographic extent did not correlate with the number of cysts in sediments following the blooms (blooms → cysts). There are, however, significant positive correlations between 0-3 cm cyst abundances and metrics of the preceding bloom that are indicative of bloom intensity or vegetative cell abundance (e.g., cumulative shellfish toxicity, duration of detectable toxicity in shellfish, and bloom termination date). These data suggest that it may be possible to use cyst abundance to empirically forecast the geographic extent of the forthcoming bloom and, conversely, to use other metrics from bloom and toxicity events to forecast the size of the subsequent cyst population as the inoculum for the next year’s bloom. This is an important step towards understanding the excystment/encystment cycle in A. fundyense bloom dynamics while also augmenting our predictive capability for this HAB-forming species in the GOM.
    Description: Research support provided by the ECOHAB Grant program through NOAA Grants NA06NOS4780245 and NA09NOS4780193, and through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, National 1 Science Foundation (NSF) Grants OCE-0430724, OCE-0911031, and OCE-1314642; and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) Grants 1-P50-ES012742-01 and 1-P01-ES021923-01, and funding through the states of ME, NH, and MA. We are also grateful for event response funding provided for many of the cruises. Funding for J.L. Martin was provided by Fisheries and Oceans Canada.
    Keywords: Alexandrium fundyense ; Cysts ; Resuspension ; Gulf of Maine ; Harmful algal bloom ; HAB ; Red tide ; Paralytic shellfish poisoning
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 103 (2014): 264-276, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.09.018.
    Description: A major goal in harmful algal bloom (HAB) research has been to identify mechanisms underlying interannual variability in bloom magnitude and impact. Here the focus is on variability in Alexandrium fundyense blooms and paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxicity in Maine, USA, over 34 years (1978 – 2011). The Maine coastline was divided into two regions - eastern and western Maine, and within those two regions, three measures of PSP toxicity (the percent of stations showing detectable toxicity over the year, the cumulative amount of toxicity per station measured in all shellfish (mussel) samples during that year, and the duration of measurable toxicity) were examined for each year in the time series. These metrics were combined into a simple HAB Index that provides a single measure of annual toxin severity across each region. The three toxin metrics, as well as the HAB Index that integrates them, reveal significant variability in overall toxicity between individual years as well as long-term, decadal patterns or regimes. Based on different conceptual models of the system, we considered three trend formulations to characterize the long-term patterns in the Index – a three-phase (mean-shift) model, a linear two-phase model, and a pulse-decline model. The first represents a “regime shift” or multiple equilibria formulation as might occur with alternating periods of sustained high and low cyst abundance or favorable and unfavorable growth conditions, the second depicts a scenario of more gradual transitions in cyst abundance or growth conditions of vegetative cells, and the third characterizes a ”sawtooth” pattern in which upward shifts in toxicity are associated with major cyst recruitment events, followed by a gradual but continuous decline until the next pulse. The fitted models were compared using both residual sum of squares and Akaike’s Information Criterion. There were some differences between model fits, but none consistently gave a better fit than the others. This statistical underpinning can guide efforts to identify physical and/or biological mechanisms underlying the patterns revealed by the HAB Index. Although A. fundyense cyst survey data (limited to 9 years) do not span the entire interval of the shellfish toxicity records, this analysis leads us to hypothesize that major changes in the abundance of A. fundyense cysts may be a primary factor contributing to the decadal trends in shellfish toxicity in this region. The HAB Index approach taken here is simple but represents a novel and potentially useful tool for resource managers in many areas of the world subject to toxic HABs.
    Description: Research support provided through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants OCE- 1128041 and OCE-1314642; and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) Grant 1-P50-ES021923-01, the ECOHAB Grant program through NOAA Grants NA06NOS4780245 and NA09NOS4780193, the MERHAB Grant program through NOAA Grant NA11NOS4780025, the PCMHAB Grant program through NOAA Grant NA11NOS4780023, and funding through the states of ME, NH, and MA. Funding for J.L. Martin was provided by Fisheries and Oceans Canada.
    Keywords: Alexandrium fundyense ; Harmful algal blooms ; HABs ; PSP ; HAB Index
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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