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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (18)
  • BSSA  (4)
Collection
  • 1
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    In:  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Roma, Publicazioni dell'Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, vol. 96, no. 2, pp. 377-391, pp. 2128, (ISBN: 0-12-018847-3)
    Publication Date: 2006
    Keywords: Seismology ; Earthquake hazard ; Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency b-value ; Magnitude ; Seismicity ; PSHA ; DSHA ; BSSA
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  • 2
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    In:  Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Münster, 3, vol. 95, no. 3, pp. 981-994, pp. L11308, (ISBN 0-471-26610-8)
    Publication Date: 2005
    Keywords: Seismology ; Non-linear effects ; Inversion ; Strong motions ; Earthquake ; Source parameters ; Nearfield ; High frequency ... ; BSSA
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  • 3
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    In:  Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Tokyo, Terra Scientific Publishing Company, vol. 94, no. 6, pp. 2213-2221, pp. L07608, (ISBN: 0534351875, 2nd edition)
    Publication Date: 2004
    Keywords: Seismology ; Modelling ; Earthquake engineering, engineering seismology ; Volcanology ; Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency b-value ; Magnitude ; Italy ; BSSA
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  • 4
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    In:  Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Paris, Pergamon, vol. 79, no. B6, pp. 1779-1809, pp. 1246
    Publication Date: 1989
    Keywords: Filter- ; Polarization ; DC source ; Shear waves ; Source parameters ; Fault plane solution, focal mechanism ; BSSA
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.
    Description: Published
    Description: 867–885
    Description: open
    Keywords: Early warning ; Hazard ; Real-time ; Risk ; False alarm ; Missed alarm ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 3232509 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: Many regions in the world are affected by natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, floods, storms, landslides, etc., each of which can have devastating socio- economic impacts. Among these natural events, earthquakes, have been among the most recurrent and damaging hazards during last few decades, resulting in large numbers of casualties, and massive economic losses [30]. The problem of earthquake risk mitigation is faced using different approaches, depending upon the time scale being considered. Whilst over time scales of decades it is of utmost importance that land use regulations and building/ infrastructure codes are continuously updated and improved, for time scales of a few years, the main risk mitigation actions are at the level of information and education in order to increase individual and social community awareness about potentially damaging hazards. Over shorter time scales (months to hours), it would naturally be of great benefit to society as a whole if the capability to accurately predict the time, location and size of a potentially catastrophic natural event were available. However, due to the great complexity of the natural processes of concern, such predictions are currently not possible. On the other hand, on very short time scales (seconds to minutes), new strategies for earthquake risk mitigation are being conceived and are under development worldwide, based on real-time information about natural events that is provided by advanced monitoring infrastructures, denoted as “early warning systems”.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2395-2421
    Description: 5.2. TTC - Banche dati di sismologia strumentale
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: EarlyWarning System ; Southern Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in re- ducing vulnerability and/or exposure of buildings and lifelines. Indeed, seismologists have recently developed efficient methods for real-time es- timation of an event’s magnitude and location based on limited informa- tion of the P-waves. Therefore, when an event occurs, estimates of magni- tude and source-to-site distance are available, and the prediction of the structural demand at the site may be performed by Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and then by Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) depending upon EEWS measures. Such an approach contains a higher level of information with respect to traditional seismic risk analysis and may be used for real-time risk management. However, this kind of prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which may affect the effectiveness of the system and therefore have to be taken into due account. In the present study the performance of the EWWS under development in the Campania region (southern Italy) is assessed by simu- lation. The earthquake localization is formulated in a Voronoi cells ap- proach, while a Bayesian method is used for magnitude estimation. Simu- lation has an empirical basis but requires no recorded signals. Our results, in terms of hazard analysis and false/missed alarm probabilities, lead us to conclude that the PSHA depending upon the EEWS significantly improves seismic risk prediction at the site and is close to what could be produced if magnitude and distance were deterministically known.
    Description: Published
    Description: 211-232
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Earthquake Early ; Campania Region ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However, some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near-and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications. In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large earthquake causative fault systems are located. The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the estimates performed at each seismic station. Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network. Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS.
    Description: Published
    Description: On line First
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Earthquake early-warning ; Real-time seismology ; Bayesian analysis ; Missed and false alarm ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.
    Description: Published
    Description: Geneva, Switzerland.
    Description: open
    Keywords: Early warning ; Real-time analysis ; Bayesian approach ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
    Format: 490011 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.
    Description: Published
    Description: open
    Keywords: early warning ; real-time ; risk ; hazard ; false alarm ; missed alarm ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 624811 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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