Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
The Andaman Islands - Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 9.3, Dec. 2004) and the subsequent Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 8.7, Mar. 2005) represent one of most energetic sequence of earthquakes ever recorded. Since both events occurred in a strongly
active volcanic region, their exceptionally strong stress perturbation gives the opportunity to understand the effects of stress perturbations on volcanic systems.
Here, we set the rules for a forward test of the causal relationship between stress
perturbation and subsequent volcanic eruptions, by means of the comparison of the spatio-temporal distribution of the eruptions which follow the earthquakes with the
co- and the post-seismic stress field due to the earthquakes. In practice, we forecast that the volcanic activity of the next 30 years will be significantly promoted by the stress perturbation; thus, we define the rules for an objective test of such
an hypothesis. Given the extremely high values of stress perturbation due to this sequence of earthquakes, the results of our test will definitively provide a reliable evaluation of the possible statistical impact of earthquake-eruption interaction on
long-term volcanic hazard assessments.
Description:
Unpublished
Description:
open
Keywords:
Earthquake-volcano interaction, stastical model, stress field,
;
stress field
;
Statistical model
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
;
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
manuscript
Format:
724315 bytes
Format:
application/pdf
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