ALBERT

Description: Since the late 1990s, the Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced persistent low water levels and above-average over-lake evaporation rates. During the winter of 2013–2014, the lakes endured the most persistent, coldest temperatures and highest ice cover in recent history, fostering speculation that over-lake evaporation rates might decrease and that water levels might rise. To address this speculation, we examined inter-seasonal relationships in Lake Michigan's thermal regime. We find pronounced relationships between winter conditions and subsequent fall heat content, modest relationships with fall surface temperature, but essentially no correlation with fall evaporation rates. Our findings suggest that the extreme winter conditions of 2013–2014 may have induced a shift in Lake Michigan's thermal regime, and that this shift coincides with a recent (and ongoing) rise in Great Lakes water levels. If the shift persists, it could (assuming precipitation rates remain relatively constant) represent a return to thermal and hydrologic conditions not observed on Lake Michigan in over 15 years.

Description: Mountain sites experience enhanced ambient UV radiation levels due to the concurrent effects of shorter radiation path-length, low aerosol load and high reflectivity of the snow surfaces. This study was encouraged by the possibility to collect data of personal UV exposure in the mountainous areas of Italy, for the first time. Personal UV exposure (expressed in terms of Exposure Ratio, ER) of two groups of volunteers (ski instructors and skiers) at the Alpine site of La Thuile (Valle d'Aosta region, Italy) was assessed using polysulphone dosimetry which was tested in a mountainous snow-covered environment. In addition measurements of biological markers of individual response to UV exposure such as skin colorimetric parameters were carried out. It was found that snow and altitude of study site affect calibration curves of polysulphone dosimeters in comparison to a situation without snow. The median ER, taking into account the whole sample, is 0.60 in winter, with a range of 0.29 to 1.46, and 1.02 in spring, ranging from 0.46 to 1.72. There are no differences in exposures across skiers and instructors in spring while in winter skiers experience lower values. UV exposures are not sensitive to the use of sunscreen across instructor/skier group by day or by seasons or by photo-type. With regard to colorimetric parameters, the main result was that both skiers and instructors had on average significantly lower values of L* and b* after exposure i.e. becoming darker but the inappropriate sunscreen use did not reveal any changes in skin colorimetric parameters except in one spring day. In conclusions UV intensities on the ski-fields are often significantly higher than those on horizontal surfaces. Given the high levels of exposure observed in the present study, dedicated public heath messages on the correct sunscreen use should be adopted.

Description: Mountain sites experience enhanced UV radiation levels due to the concurrent effects of shorter radiation path-length, low aerosol load and high reflectivity of the snow surfaces. This study was encouraged by the possibility to collect original data of personal dose on a specific anatomical site (erythemally effective UV dose on the forehead) of two groups of volunteers (ski instructors and skiers) in the mountainous areas of Italy (the Alpine site of La Thuile-Les Suches in Valle d'Aosta region). Personal doses were assessed using polysulphone dosimetry. Exposure Ratio (ER), defined as the ratio between the personal dose and the corresponding ambient dose (i.e. erythemally weighted dose received by a horizontal surface) during the same exposure period was taken into account. In addition measuring skin colours as biological markers of individual response to UV exposure, was also carried out on the forearm and cheek of each volunteer before and after exposure. The median ER, taking into account the whole sample, is 0.60 in winter, with a range of 0.29 to 1.46, and 1.02 in spring, ranging from 0.46 to 1.72. No differences in ERs were found between skiers and instructors in spring while in winter skiers experienced lower values. Regarding skin colorimetric parameters the main result was that both skiers and instructors had on average significantly lower values of luminance after exposure i.e.~they became darker. It was found that the use of sunscreen and individual skin photo-type did not produce significant variations in ER across instructor/skier group by day and by seasons (p〉0.05). It seems that sunscreen use only at the beginning of the exposure or in a few cases a couple of times during exposure (at difference with the specific instructions sheets), was not sufficient to change significantly skin colorimetric parameters across participants. In conclusion UV personal doses on the ski-fields are often significantly higher than those on horizontal surfaces and consistently more intense respect to personal doses received by sunbathers on the beach in central Italy (ER range: 0.09–0.42). Given the high levels of exposure observed in the present study, specific public health warnings with regards to the efficacy of sun-protection behaviours (proper application and re-application of sunscreen and protective measures such as hats and sun glasses) should be adopted.

Description: We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070–2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

Description: With the help of the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (MARERA) and the MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) global model (MARMIROC5) from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) database, we have modelled the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard at a 10 km resolution over 1979–2013. The integrated total surface mass balance (SMB) over Svalbard modelled by MARERA is negative (−1.6 Gt yr−1) with a large interannual variability (7.1 Gt) but, unlike over Greenland, there has been no acceleration of the surface melt over the past 35 years because of the recent change in atmospheric circulation bringing northwesterly flows in summer over Svalbard, contrasting the recent observed Arctic warming. However, in 2013, the atmospheric circulation changed to a south–southwesterly flow over Svalbard causing record melt, SMB (−20.4 Gt yr−1) and summer temperature. MIROC5 is significantly colder than ERA-Interim over 1980–2005 but MARMIROC5 is able to improve the near-surface MIROC5 results by simulating not significant SMB differences with MARERA over 1980–2005. On the other hand, MIROC5 does not represent the recent atmospheric circulation shift in summer and induces in MARMIROC5 a significant trend of decreasing SMB (−0.6 Gt yr−2) over 1980–2005.

Description: We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo–melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer.

Description: With the aim to force an ice dynamical model, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) was modelled at different spatial resolutions (15–50 km) for the period 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) forced by the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. This comparison revealed that (i) the inter-annual variability of the SMB components is consistent within the different spatial resolutions investigated, (ii) the MAR model simulates heavier precipitation on average over the GrIS with decreasing spatial resolution, and (iii) the SMB components (except precipitation) can be derived from a simulation at lower resolution with an "intelligent" interpolation. This interpolation can also be used to approximate the SMB components over another topography/ice sheet mask of the GrIS. These results are important for the forcing of an ice dynamical model needed to enable future projections of the GrIS contribution to sea level rise over the coming centuries.

Description: With the help of the regional climate model MAR forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (MARERA) and the MIROC5 global model (MARMIROC5) from the CMIP5 database, we have modelled the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard at a 10 km resolution over 1979–2013. The integrated total SMB over Svalbard modelled by MARERA is negative (−1.6 Gt yr−1) with a large interannual variability (7.1 Gt) but, unlike over Greenland, there has been no acceleration of the surface melt over the past 35 years because of the recent change in atmospheric circulation bringing northerly flows in summer over Svalbard, contrasting the recent observed Arctic warming. However, in 2013, the atmospheric circulation changed to a southwesterly flow over Svalbard causing a record of melt, SMB (−20.4 Gt yr−1) and summer temperature. MIROC5 is significantly colder than ERA-Interim over 1980–2005 but MARMIROC5 is able to improve the near-surface MIROC5 results by simulating not significant SMB differences with MARERA over 1980–2005. On the other hand, MIROC5 does not represent the recent atmospheric circulation shift in summer and induces in MARMIROC5 a significant trend of decreasing SMB (−0.6 Gt yr−2) over 1980–2005.

Description: Since 2007, there has been a succession of surface melt records over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in continuity of the trend observed since the end of the 1990s towards increasing melt. But, these last two decades are characterized by an increase of negative phases of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) favouring warmer and drier summers than normal over GrIS. In this context, we use a circulation type classification based on the daily 500 hPa geopotential height to evaluate the role of the atmospheric dynamics in this surface melt acceleration since 20 yr. Due to the lack of direct observations, the interannual melt variability is gauged here by the summer (June-July-August) mean temperature at 700 hPa over Greenland; analogous atmospheric circulations in the past show that ~70% of the 1992–2011 warming at 700 hPa over Greenland has been driven by changes in the atmospheric flow frequencies. Indeed, the occurrence of anticyclones in surface and at 500 hPa centred over the GrIS has doubled since the end of 1990s which induces southerly warm air advection along the Western Greenland coast and over the neighbouring Canadian islands. These changes in the NAO modes explain also why no significant warming has been observed these last five summers over Svalbard, where northerly atmospheric flows are more frequent than before. Therefore, the recent warmer summers over Greenland, Ellesmere and Baffin Islands can not be considered as a long term climate warming but are more rather a consequence of the NAO variability impacting the atmospheric heat transport. While no global model from the CMIP5 database projects consequent changes in NAO through this century, we can not exclude that these changes in NAO are due to global warming.