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  • 1
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    Ground Motions Recorded in Rome during the April 2009 L'Aquila Seismic Sequence: Site Response and Comparison with Ground-Motion Predictions Based on a Global Dataset (2013)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-06-01
    Description: The mainshock and moderate-magnitude aftershocks of the 6 April 2009 M 6.3 L'Aquila seismic sequence, about 90 km northeast of Rome, provided the first earthquake ground-motion recordings in the urban area of Rome. Before those recordings were obtained, the assessments of the seismic hazard in Rome were based on intensity observations and theoretical considerations. The L'Aquila recordings offer an unprecedented opportunity to calibrate the city response to central Apennine earthquakes--earthquakes that have been responsible for the largest damage to Rome in historical times. Using the data recorded in Rome in April 2009, we show that (1) published theoretical predictions of a 1 s resonance in the Tiber valley are confirmed by observations showing a significant amplitude increase in response spectra at that period, (2) the empirical soil-transfer functions inferred from spectral ratios are satisfactorily fit through 1D models using the available geological, geophysical, and laboratory data, but local variability can be large for individual events, (3) response spectra for the motions recorded in Rome from the L'Aquila earthquakes are significantly amplified in the radial component at periods near 1 s, even at a firm site on volcanic rocks, and (4) short-period response spectra are smaller than expected when compared to ground-motion predictions from equations based on a global dataset, whereas the observed response spectra are higher than expected for periods near 1 s.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America
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  • 2
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    Reply to "Comment on `The 28 December 1908 Messina Straits Earthquake (Mw 7.1): A Great Earthquake throughout a Century of Seismology,' by N. A. Pino, A. Piatanesi, G. Valensise, and E. Boschi" by A. Amoruso, L. Crescentini, and R. Scarpa (2010)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2010-03-01
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America
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  • 3
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    The 28 December 1908 Messina Straits Earthquake (MW 7.1): A Great Earthquake throughout a Century of Seismology (2009)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2009-03-01
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America
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  • 4
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    A Ten-Year Earthquake Occurrence Model for Italy (2012)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-06-01
    Description: The recent M (sub w) 6.3 destructive L'Aquila earthquake has further stimulated the improvement of the Italian operational earthquake forecasting capability at different time intervals. Here, we describe a medium-term (10-year) forecast model for M (sub w) 〉 or =5.5 earthquakes in Italy that aims at opening new possibilities for risk mitigation purposes. While a longer forecast yielded by the national seismic-hazard map is the primary component in establishing the building code, a medium-term earthquake forecast model may be useful to prioritize additional risk mitigation strategies such as the retrofitting of vulnerable structures. In particular, we have developed an earthquake occurrence model for a 10-year forecast that consists of a weighted average of time-independent and different types of available time-dependent models, based on seismotectonic zonations and regular grids. The inclusion of time-dependent models marks a difference with the earthquake occurrence model of the national seismic-hazard map, and it is motivated by the fact that, at the 10-year scale, the contribution of time-dependency in the earthquake occurrence process may play a major role. The models are assembled through a simple averaging scheme whereby each model is weighted through the results of a retrospective testing phase similar to the ones carried out in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In this way, the most hazardous Italian areas in the next ten years will arise from a combination of distinct models that place more emphasis on different aspects of the earthquake occurrence process, such as earthquake clustering, historical seismic rate, and the presence of delayed faults capable of large events. Finally, we report new challenges and possible developments for future updating of the model.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America
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  • 5
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    The Gutenberg-Richter Law and Entropy of Earthquakes: Two Case Studies in Central Italy (2011)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-05-29
    Description: A cumulative frequency-magnitude relation, the Gutenberg-Richter law, dominates the statistics of the occurrence of earthquakes. Although it is an empirical law, some authors have tried to give some physical meaning to its a and b parameters. Here, we recall some theoretical expressions for the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with magnitude M in terms of a and b values. A direct consequence of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and the maximum entropy principle (MEP) is that a and b values can be expressed as a function of the mean magnitude of a seismic sequence over a certain area. We then introduce the definition of the Shannon entropy of earthquakes and show how it is related to the b value. In this way, we also give a physical interpretation to the b value: the negative logarithm of b is the entropy of the magnitude frequency of earthquake occurrence. An application of these concepts to two case studies, in particular to the recent seismic sequence in Abruzzi (central Italy; mainshock M (sub w) 6.3, 6 April 2009 in L'Aquila) and to an older 1997 sequence (Umbria-Marche, central Italy; mainshock M (sub w) 6.0, 26 September 1997 in Colfiorito), confirms their potential to help in understanding the physics of earthquakes. In particular, from the comparison of the two cases, a simple scheme of different regimes in succession is proposed in order to describe the dynamics of both sequences.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America
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  • 6
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    Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003-2009) for the Italian Building Code (2011)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-08-01
    Description: This paper describes the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard (PSHA) of Italy in view of the building codes from 2003 to 2009. A code was issued in 2003 as a Prime Minister Ordinance, requiring that a PSHA for updating the seismic zoning would be performed in one year, in terms of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on hard ground. For the first time in Italy, a working group, established by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, adopted a logic-tree approach to model the epistemic uncertainty in the completeness of the earthquake catalog, the assessment of the seismicity rates and M (sub max) , and the ground-motion prediction equations. The seismic hazard has been computed over a grid of more than 16,000 points for the median value (fiftieth percentile) and the eighty-fourth and sixteenth percentiles of the 16 branches of the logic tree. Using the same input model, PGA values and spectral accelerations for 10 spectral periods were computed for nine different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. This wealth of data made it possible to base the design spectra of a new building code on point hazard data instead of being related to just four zones. The 2009 M (sub w) 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake has led many to attempt to test the reliability of this study. In this paper, we analyze suggestions coming from that event and conclude that significant changes to the design spectra are not to be recommended based just on evidence from the L'Aquila earthquake.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America
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  • 7
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    Reply to "Comment on 'Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003-2009) for the Italian Building Code' by Massimiliano Stucchi, Carlo Meletti, Valentina Montaldo, Helen Crowley, Gian Michele Calvi, and Enzo Boschi" by Marco Mucciarelli and Dario Albarello (2012)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Description: In their lengthy comment on Stucchi et al. (2011), Mucciarelli and Albarello (2012) propose opinions on aspects of the study that have been discussed and reviewed in countless circumstances in Italy and internationally, from the very beginning (2003) to the end (2009) of our research. We have the feeling that Mucciarelli and Albarello fail to recognize that the seismic‐hazard assessment was performed in support of the new Italian building code; and therefore, the relevant decisions were made in agreement with numerous committees of the Italian governmental bodies, sometimes after a good deal of negotiation. Such a lack of perspective is surprising, considering that Albarello contributed to the first phase of the project and was a partner in the second phase, where he was funded on the basis of …
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
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    The Location and Sizing of Historical Earthquakes Using the Attenuation of Macroseismic Intensity with Distance (2010)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2010-09-20
    Description: We herein describe new methods for computing the quantitative parameters of earthquakes using macroseismic data and the uncertainties associated with these parameters. The methods allow for the location of epicenters that are offshore or that have no intensities assigned to any points in the epicentral region by maximizing the likelihood function of an attenuation equation with observed intensity data. In the most favorable cases, such an approach also allows the estimation of the source depth and the local attenuation coefficients. We compute the parameter uncertainties in two ways: (1) using formal methods, such as the inversion of the Hessian of the log-likelihood function at its maximum, and (2) by using bootstrap simulations. We tested the performance of our methods by comparison with reliable instrumental hypocenters of onshore earthquakes, and found a reasonable agreement with the epicentral locations (within 10-15 km for more than 70% of cases) but not with the hypocentral depths, for which our results are generally underestimated by a factor of 2 or more and are poorly related to instrumental estimates. This finding indicates that the use of macroseismic depths in seismic hazard and seismotectonic investigations should be treated with caution. We nevertheless found good agreement (within 10 degrees -15 degrees ) between the fault-trace orientations that were computed using the macroseismic data and the associated focal mechanisms of earthquakes with M (sub w) 〉 or =5.7. The surprising accuracy of the macroseismic orientations obtained using this method could in some cases allow the true fault to be inferred between the two conjugate planes of a given focal mechanism.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America
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  • 9
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    Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003–2009) for the Italian Building Code (2012)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This paper describes the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard (PSHA) of Italy in view of the building codes from 2003 to 2009. A code was issued in 2003 as Prime Minister Ordinance, requiring that a PSHA for updating the seismic zoning would be performed in one year, in terms of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, on hard ground. For the first time in Italy a working group, established by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), adopted a logic-tree approach to model the epistemic uncertainty in: the completeness of the earthquake catalog, the assessment of the seismicity rates and Mmax, and the ground motion prediction equations. The seismic hazard has been computed over a grid of more than 16,000 points for the median value (50th percentile), 84th and 16th percentiles of the 16 branches of the logic tree. Using the same input model, PGA values and spectral accelerations for 10 spectral periods were computed for 9 different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. This wealth of data made it possible to base the design spectra of a new building code on point hazard data instead of being related to just four zones. The 2009, Mw 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake has led many to attempt to test the reliability of this study. In this paper we analyze suggestions coming from that event and conclude that significant changes to the design spectra are not be recommended based just on evidence from the L’Aquila earthquake.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1885–1911
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: seismic hazard ; italy ; building code ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    A Ten-Year Earthquake Occurrence Model for Italy (2012)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The recent Mw 6.3 destructive L’Aquila earthquake has further stimulated the improvement of the Italian operational earthquake forecasting capability at different time intervals. Here, we describe a medium-term (10-year) forecast model for Mw ≥5:5 earthquakes in Italy that aims at opening new possibilities for risk mitigation purposes. While a longer forecast yielded by the national seismic-hazard map is the primary component in establishing the building code, a medium-term earthquake forecast model may be useful to prioritize additional risk mitigation strategies such as the retrofitting of vulnerable structures. In particular, we have developed an earthquake occurrence model for a 10-year forecast that consists of a weighted average of time-independent and different types of available time-dependent models, based on seismotectonic zonations and regular grids. The inclusion of time-dependent models marks a difference with the earthquake occurrence model of the national seismic-hazard map, and it is motivated by the fact that, at the 10-year scale, the contribution of time-dependency in the earthquake occurrence process may play a major role. The models are assembled through a simple averaging scheme whereby each model is weighted through the results of a retrospective testing phase similar to the ones carried out in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In this way, the most hazardous Italian areas in the next ten years will arise from a combination of distinct models that place more emphasis on different aspects of the earthquake occurrence process, such as earthquake clustering, historical seismic rate, and the presence of delayed faults capable of large events. Finally, we report new challenges and possible developments for future updating of the model.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1195-1213
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake occurrence ; time-dependent and independent earthquake occurrence models ; csep testing ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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