ALBERT

Description: Assessment of the global budget of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) is limited by poor knowledge of the oceanicN2O flux to the atmosphere, of which the magnitude, spatial distribution, and temporal variability remain highly uncertain. Here, we reconstruct climatologicalN2O emissions from the ocean by training a supervised learning algorithm with over 158,000N2O measurements from the surface ocean—the largest synthesis to date. The reconstruction captures observed latitudinal gradients and coastal hot spots ofN2O flux and reveals a vigorous global seasonal cycle. We estimate an annual meanN2O flux of 4.2 ± 1.0 Tg N⋅y−1, 64% of which occurs in the tropics, and 20% in coastal upwelling systems that occupy less than 3% of the ocean area. ThisN2O flux ranges from a low of 3.3 ± 1.3 Tg N⋅y−1in the boreal spring to a high of 5.5 ± 2.0 Tg N⋅y−1in the boreal summer. Much of the seasonal variations in globalN2O emissions can be traced to seasonal upwelling in the tropical ocean and winter mixing in the Southern Ocean. The dominant contribution to seasonality by productive, low-oxygen tropical upwelling systems (〉75%) suggests a sensitivity of the globalN2O flux to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and anthropogenic stratification of the low latitude ocean. This ocean flux estimate is consistent with the range adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but reduces its uncertainty by more than fivefold, enabling more precise determination of other terms in the atmosphericN2O budget.

Description: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Description: Environmental change and the exploitation of marine resources have had profound impacts on marine communities, with potential implications for ocean biogeochemistry and food security. In order to study such global-scale problems, it is helpful to have computationally efficient numerical models that predict the first-order features of fish biomass production as a function of the environment, based on empirical and mechanistic understandings of marine ecosystems. Here we describe the ecological module of the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model, which takes an Earth-system approach to modelling fish biomass at the global scale. The ecological model is designed to be used on an Earth-system model grid, and determines size spectra of fish biomass by explicitly resolving life history as a function of local temperature and net primary production. Biomass production is limited by the availability of photosynthetic energy to upper trophic levels, following empirical trophic efficiency scalings, and by well-established empirical temperature-dependent growth rates. Natural mortality is calculated using an empirical size-based relationship, while reproduction and recruitment depend on both the food availability to larvae from net primary production and the production of eggs by mature adult fish. We describe predicted biomass spectra and compare them to observations, and conduct a sensitivity study to determine how they change as a function of net primary production and temperature. The model relies on a limited number of parameters compared to similar modelling efforts, while retaining reasonably realistic representations of biological and ecological processes, and is computationally efficient, allowing extensive parameter-space analyses even when implemented globally. As such, it enables the exploration of the linkages between ocean biogeochemistry, climate, and upper trophic levels at the global scale, as well as a representation of fish biomass for idealized studies of fisheries.

Description: Although long assumed that the glacial-interglacial cycles of atmospheric CO2 occurred despite a constant active carbon inventory, there are signs that the geological CO2 supply rates varied. However, changes of the carbon inventory cannot be assessed without constraining the removal rates from the system, which mainly occurs in marine sediments. Here, we present the first global reconstruction of carbon and alkalinity burial in deep-sea sediments over the last glacial cycle. Although subject to large uncertainties, the reconstruction provides a first order constraint on changes in carbon and alkalinity inventories over the last glacial cycle. The results suggest that reduced burial of carbonate in the Atlantic Ocean was not entirely compensated by the increased burial in the Pacific basin during the last glacial period. The burial-driven inventory variations are likely to have significantly altered the δ13C of the ocean-atmosphere carbon, as well as the DIC and alkalinity budget, confirming that the active carbon inventory was a dynamic, interactive component of the glacial cycles.

Description: Although it has long been assumed that the glacial–interglacial cycles of atmospheric CO2 occurred due to increased storage of CO2 in the ocean, with no change in the size of the “active” carbon inventory, there are signs that the geological CO2 supply rate to the active pool varied significantly. The resulting changes of the carbon inventory cannot be assessed without constraining the rate of carbon removal from the system, which largely occurs in marine sediments. The oceanic supply of alkalinity is also removed by the burial of calcium carbonate in marine sediments, which plays a major role in air–sea partitioning of the active carbon inventory. Here, we present the first global reconstruction of carbon and alkalinity burial in deep-sea sediments over the last glacial cycle. Although subject to large uncertainties, the reconstruction provides a first-order constraint on the effects of changes in deep-sea burial fluxes on global carbon and alkalinity inventories over the last glacial cycle. The results suggest that reduced burial of carbonate in the Atlantic Ocean was not entirely compensated by the increased burial in the Pacific basin during the last glacial period, which would have caused a gradual buildup of alkalinity in the ocean. We also consider the magnitude of possible changes in the larger but poorly constrained rates of burial on continental shelves, and show that these could have been significantly larger than the deep-sea burial changes. The burial-driven inventory variations are sufficiently large to have significantly altered the δ13C of the ocean–atmosphere carbon and changed the average dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity concentrations of the ocean by more than 100 µM, confirming that carbon burial fluxes were a dynamic, interactive component of the glacial cycles that significantly modified the size of the active carbon pool. Our results also suggest that geological sources and sinks were significantly unbalanced during the late Holocene, leading to a slow net removal flux on the order of 0.1 PgC yr−1 prior to the rapid input of carbon during the industrial period.

Description: In the current era of rapid climate change, accurate characterization of climate-relevant gas dynamics – namely production, consumption, and net emissions – is required for all biomes, especially those ecosystems most susceptible to the impact of change. Marine environments include regions that act as net sources or sinks for numerous climate-active trace gases including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The temporal and spatial distributions of CH4 and N2O are controlled by the interaction of complex biogeochemical and physical processes. To evaluate and quantify how these mechanisms affect marine CH4 and N2O cycling requires a combination of traditional scientific disciplines including oceanography, microbiology, and numerical modeling. Fundamental to these efforts is ensuring that the datasets produced by independent scientists are comparable and interoperable. Equally critical is transparent communication within the research community about the technical improvements required to increase our collective understanding of marine CH4 and N2O. A workshop sponsored by Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) was organized to enhance dialogue and collaborations pertaining to marine CH4 and N2O. Here, we summarize the outcomes from the workshop to describe the challenges and opportunities for near-future CH4 and N2O research in the marine environment.

Description: Eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) are physically and biologically active regions of the ocean with substantial impacts on ocean biogeochemistry, ecology, and global fish catch. Previous studies have used models of varying complexity to study EBUS dynamics, ranging from minimal two-dimensional (2-D) models to comprehensive regional and global models. An advantage of 2-D models is that they are more computationally efficient and easier to interpret than comprehensive regional models, but their key drawback is the lack of explicit representations of important three-dimensional processes that control biology in upwelling systems. These processes include eddy quenching of nutrients and meridional transport of nutrients and heat. The authors present the Meridionally Averaged Model of Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (MAMEBUS) that aims at combining the benefits of 2-D and 3-D approaches to modeling EBUSs by parameterizing the key 3-D processes in a 2-D framework. MAMEBUS couples the primitive equations for the physical state of the ocean with a nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus model of the ecosystem, solved in terrain-following coordinates. This article defines the equations that describe the tracer, momentum, and biological evolution, along with physical parameterizations of eddy advection, isopycnal mixing, and boundary layer mixing. It describes the details of the numerical schemes and their implementation in the model code, and provides a reference solution validated against observations from the California Current. The goal of MAMEBUS is to facilitate future studies to efficiently explore the wide space of physical and biogeochemical parameters that control the zonal variations in EBUSs.

Description: Assessment of the global budget of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide ([Formula: see text]O) is limited by poor knowledge of the oceanic [Formula: see text]O flux to the atmosphere, of which the magnitude, spatial distribution, and temporal variability remain highly uncertain. Here, we reconstruct climatological [Formula: see text]O emissions from the ocean by training a supervised learning algorithm with over 158,000 [Formula: see text]O measurements from the surface ocean-the largest synthesis to date. The reconstruction captures observed latitudinal gradients and coastal hot spots of [Formula: see text]O flux and reveals a vigorous global seasonal cycle. We estimate an annual mean [Formula: see text]O flux of 4.2 ± 1.0 Tg N[Formula: see text], 64% of which occurs in the tropics, and 20% in coastal upwelling systems that occupy less than 3% of the ocean area. This [Formula: see text]O flux ranges from a low of 3.3 ± 1.3 Tg N[Formula: see text] in the boreal spring to a high of 5.5 ± 2.0 Tg N[Formula: see text] in the boreal summer. Much of the seasonal variations in global [Formula: see text]O emissions can be traced to seasonal upwelling in the tropical ocean and winter mixing in the Southern Ocean. The dominant contribution to seasonality by productive, low-oxygen tropical upwelling systems (〉75%) suggests a sensitivity of the global [Formula: see text]O flux to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and anthropogenic stratification of the low latitude ocean. This ocean flux estimate is consistent with the range adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but reduces its uncertainty by more than fivefold, enabling more precise determination of other terms in the atmospheric [Formula: see text]O budget.