ALBERT

Description: To evaluate the impact of biomass burning from Southeast Asia to East Asia, this study conducted numerical simulations during NASA's 2006 Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA). Two typical episode periods (27–28 March and 13–14 April) were examined. Two emission inventories, FLAMBE and GFED, were used in the simulations. The influences during two episodes in the source region (Southeast Asia) contributed to the surface CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as high as 400 ppbv, 20 ppbv and 80 μg m−3, respectively. The perturbations with and without biomass burning of the above three species during the intense episodes were in the range of 10 to 60%, 10 to 20% and 30 to 70%, respectively. The impact due to long-range transport could spread over the southeastern parts of East Asia and could reach about 160 to 360 ppbv, 8 to 18 ppbv and 8 to 64 μg m−3 on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively; the percentage impact could reach 20 to 50% on CO, 10 to 30% on O3, and as high as 70% on PM2.5. In March, the impact of biomass burning mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and southern China, while in April the impact becomes slightly broader and even could go up to the Yangtze River Delta region. Two cross-sections at 15° N and 20° N were used to compare the vertical flux of biomass burning. In the source region (Southeast Asia), CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations had a strong upward transport from surface to high altitudes. The eastward transport becomes strong from 2 to 8 km in the free troposphere. The subsidence process during the long-range transport contributed 60 to 70%, 20 to 50%, and 80% on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively to surface in the downwind area. The study reveals the significant impact of Southeastern Asia biomass burning on the air quality in both local and downwind areas, particularly during biomass burning episodes. This modeling study might provide constraints of lower limit. An additional study is underway for an active biomass burning year to obtain an upper limit and climate effects.

Description: The impact of aerosol composition on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity were analyzed in this study based on field experiments carried out at downtown Tianjin, China in September 2010. In the experiments, the CCN measurements were performed at supersaturation (SS) of 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.4% using a thermal-gradient diffusion chamber (DMT CCNC), whereas the aerosol size distribution and composition were simultaneously measured with a TSI SMPS and an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS), respectively. The results show that the influence of aerosol composition on CCN activity is notable under low SS (0.1%), and their influence decreased with increasing SS. For example, under SS of 0.1%, the CCN activity increases from 4.5±2.6% to 12.8±6.1% when organics fraction decrease from 30–40% to 10–20%. The rate of increase reached up to 184%. While under SS of 0.4%, the CCN activity increases only from 35.7±19.0% to 46.5±12.3% correspondingly. The calculated NCCN based on the size-resolved activation ratio and aerosol number size distribution correlated well with observed NCCN at high SS (0.4%), but this consistence decreased with the falling of SS. The slopes of linear fitted lines between calculated and observed NCCN are 0.708, 0.947, and 0.995 at SS of 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Moreover, the stand deviation (SD) of calculated NCCN increased with the decreasing of SS. A case study of CCN closure analyses indicated that the calculated error of NCCN could reach up to 34% at SS of 0.1% if aerosol composition were not included, and the calculated error decreased with the raising of SS. It is decreased to 9% at SS of 0.2%, and further decreased to 4% at SS of 0.4%.

Description: Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in the 2050s. From the CAM-Chem global simulation results, ozone concentrations in the lower to mid-troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases by the end of the 2050s (2057–2059) in RCP 4.5 compared to present (2001–2004), with the largest decrease of 4–10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and an increase as high as 10 ppbv in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. From the regional model CMAQ simulation results, under the RCP 4.5 scenario (2057–2059), in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations compared to present (2001–2004), ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions. More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of the 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to a 0.3 ppbv to 2.0 ppbv increase (statistically significant except in the Southeast) of the mean maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone in nine climate regions in the US. Moreover, the upper 95% limit of MDA8 increase reaches 0.4 ppbv to 1.5 ppbv in RCP 4.5 and 0.6 ppbv to 3.2 ppbv in RCP 8.5. The magnitude differences of increase between RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also reflect that the increase of methane emissions may favor or strengthen the effect of heat waves.

Description: Observation shows that eastern China experienced an interdecadal shift in the summer precipitation during the second half of the 20th century. The summer precipitation increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, whereas it decreased in northern China. Here we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model and multi-ensemble simulations to show that the interdecadal shift is mainly caused by the anthropogenic forcing. The rapidly increasing greenhouse gases induce a notable Indian Ocean warming, causing a westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a southward displacement of the East Asia westerly jet (EAJ) on an interdecadal timescale, leading to more precipitation in Yangtze River valley. At the same time the surface cooling effects from the stronger convection, higher precipitation and rapidly increasing anthropogenic aerosols contribute to a reduced summer land–sea thermal contrast. Due to the changes in the WPSH, the EAJ and the land–sea thermal contrast, the East Asian summer monsoon weakened resulting in drought in northern China. Consequently, an anomalous precipitation pattern started to emerge over eastern China in the late 1970s. According to the model, the natural forcing played an opposite role in regulating the changes in WPSH and EAJ, and postponed the anthropogenically forced climate changes in eastern China. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is crucial to the response, and acts as a bridge to link the external forcings and East Asian summer climate together on a decadal and longer timescales. Our results further highlight the dominant roles of anthropogenic forcing agents in shaping interdecadal changes of the East Asian climate during the second half of the 20th century.

Description: A series of emission control measures were undertaken in Beijing and the adjacent provinces in China during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games on 8–24 August 2008. This provides a unique opportunity for investigating the effectiveness of emission controls on air pollution in Beijing. We conducted a series of numerical experiments over East Asia for the period of July to September 2008 using a coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem). Model can generally reproduce the observed variation of aerosol concentrations. Consistent with observations, modeled concentrations of aerosol species (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, organic carbon, total particulate matter) in Beijing were decreased by 30–50% during the Olympic period compared to the other periods in July and August in 2008 and the same period in 2007. Model results indicate that emission controls were effective in reducing the aerosol concentrations by comparing simulations with and without emission controls. In addition to emission controls, our analysis suggests that meteorological conditions (e.g. wind direction and precipitation) were also important in producing the low aerosol concentrations appearing during the Olympic period. Transport from the regions surrounding Beijing determined the daily variation of aerosol concentrations in Beijing. Based on the budget analysis, we suggest that to improve the air quality over Beijing, emission control strategy should focus on the regional scale instead of the local scale.

Description: The atmospheric reactions of halogenated formaldehydes with halogen atoms were investigated by high-accuracy molecular orbital calculation. Our studies showed that compared to X-addition pathway, the H-abstraction pathway was demonstrated to be more preferred to form halogenated formyl radicals and hydrogen halides (HX). In specific areas with abundant halogen atoms, such as the marine boundary layer (MBL), halogenated formyl radical was reacted easily with halogen atoms and finally transformed into HX and CO2 in the presence of water; otherwise, this radical was degraded to CO2, halogen gas, and halogenated oxide in the presence of O2 and halogen atoms. By using the canonical variational transition state theory, the kinetics calculations were performed within a wide atmospheric temperature range of 200–368 K, and theoretical values agreed well with the available experimental data. Under atmospheric conditions, rate constants decreased as altitude increased, and especially the rate constants of halogen atoms reacted with FCHO quickly reduced. The kinetic results showed that although the reactions of halogenated formaldehydes with F atoms occurred more easily than did those with Cl and Br atoms, the two latter reactions were still important atmospheric degradation process, especially in the MBL. The modified Arrhenius equations of rate constants within the atmospheric temperature range were fitted, which helped to understand the established atmospheric model and estimated the contribution of title reactions to atmospheric chemistry pollution.

Description: To evaluate the impact of biomass burning from Southeast Asia to East Asia, this study conducted numerical simulations during NASA's 2006 Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA). Two typical episode periods (27–28 March and 13–14 April) were examined. Two emission inventories, FLAMBE and GFED, were used in the simulations. The influences during two episodes in the source region (Southeast Asia) contributed to CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as high as 400 ppbv, 20 ppbv and 80 μg/m3, respectively. The perturbations with and without biomass burning of the above three species were in the range of 10 to 60%, 10 to 20% and 30 to 70%, respectively. The impact due to long-range transport could spread over the southeastern parts of East Asia and could reach about 160 to 360 ppbv, 8 to 18 ppbv and 8 to 64 μg/m3 on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively; the percentage impact could reach 20 to 50% on CO, 10 to 30% on O3, and as high as 70% on PM2.5. An impact pattern can be found in April, while the impact becomes slightly broader and goes up to Yangtze River Delta. Two cross-sections at 15° N and 20° N were used to compare the vertical flux of biomass burning. In the source region (Southeast Asia), CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations had a strong upward tendency from surface to high altitudes. The eastward transport becomes strong from 2 to 8 km in the free troposphere. The subsidence contributed 60 to 70%, 20 to 50%, and 80% on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively to surface in the downwind area. The study reveals the significant impact of Southeastern Asia biomass burning on the air quality in both local and downwind areas, particularly during biomass burning episodes. This modeling study might provide constraints of lower limit. An additional study is underway for an active biomass burning year to obtain an upper limit and climate effects.

Description: To evaluate the impact of biomass burning from Southeast Asia to East Asia, this study conducted numerical simulations during NASA's 2006 Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA). Two typical episode periods (27–28 March and 13–14 April) were examined. Two emission inventories, FLAMBE and GFED, were used in the simulations. The influences during two episodes in the source region (Southeast Asia) contributed to the surface CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as high as 400 ppbv, 20 ppbv and 80 μg m−3, respectively. The perturbations with and without biomass burning of the above three species during the intense episodes were in the range of 10 to 60%, 10 to 20% and 30 to 70%, respectively. The impact due to long-range transport could spread over the southeastern parts of East Asia and could reach about 160 to 360 ppbv, 8 to 18 ppbv and 8 to 64 μg m−3 on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively; the percentage impact could reach 20 to 50% on CO, 10 to 30% on O3, and as high as 70% on PM2.5. In March, the impact of biomass burning was mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and Southern China, while in April the impact becomes slightly broader, potentially including the Yangtze River Delta region. Two cross-sections at 15° N and 20° N were used to compare the vertical flux of biomass burning. In the source region (Southeast Asia), CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations had a strong upward transport from surface to high altitudes. The eastward transport becomes strong from 2 to 8 km in the free troposphere. The subsidence process during the long-range transport contributed 60 to 70%, 20 to 50%, and 80% to CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively to surface in the downwind area. The study reveals the significant impact of Southeastern Asia biomass burning on the air quality in both local and downwind areas, particularly during biomass burning episodes. This modeling study might provide lower limit constraints. An additional study is underway for an active biomass burning year to obtain an upper limit and climate effects.

Description: Land cover changes can impact the climate by influencing the surface energy and water balance. Unproductive peatlands were extensively drained to stimulate forest growth in Finland over the second half of 20th century. The aim of this study is to investigate the biogeophysical effects of peatland forestation on climate change in Finland. Two sets of 18 year climate simulations were done with the regional climate model REMO by using land cover data based on pre-drainage (1920s) and post-drainage (2000s) Finnish National Forest Inventories. The results show that in the most intensive peatland forestation area located in the middle west of Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean two-metre air temperature show a spring warming of up to 0.43 K in April, whereas a slight cooling of less than 0.1 K in general is found from May till October. Consequently, snow clearance days over that area are advanced up to 5 days in the mean of 15 years. No clear signal is found for precipitation. Through analysing the simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth over five selected subregions, a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation is found between decreased surface albedo and increased surface air temperature in the snow melting period. Our modelled results show good qualitative agreements with the observational data. In general, decreased albedo in snow-melting period and increased evapotranspiration in the growing period are the most important biogeophysical aspects induced by peatland forestation that cause changes in climate.

Description: We investigate the respective role of variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows for the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This is partly done by analysing long (order of 1000 years) control simulations with five coupled climate models. For all models, the maximum influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is found at about 45° N, while the maximum influence of variations in Nordic Seas overflows is rather found at 55 to 60° N. Regarding the two overflow branches, the influence of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow is, for all models, substantially larger than that of variations in the overflow across the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The latter might, however, be underestimated, as the models in general do not realistically simulate the flow path of the Iceland–Scotland overflow water south of the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is, on multimodel average, larger than that of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow. This is true both at 45° N, where the maximum standard deviation of decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability is located for all but one model, and at the more classical latitude of 30° N. At 30° N, variations in subpolar deep water formation and Denmark Strait overflow explain, on multimodel average, about half and one-third respectively of the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variance. Apart from analysing multimodel control simulations, we have performed sensitivity experiments with one of the models, in which we suppress the variability of either subpolar deep water formation or Nordic Seas overflows. The sensitivity experiments indicate that variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows are not completely independent. We further conclude from these experiments that the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability north of about 50° N is mainly related to variations in Nordic Seas overflows. At 45° N and south of this latitude, variations in both subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows contribute to the AMOC variability, with neither of the processes being very dominant compared to the other.