ALBERT

Description: Observation shows that eastern China experienced an interdecadal shift in the summer precipitation during the second half of the 20th century. The summer precipitation increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, whereas it decreased in northern China. Here we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model and multi-ensemble simulations to show that the interdecadal shift is mainly caused by the anthropogenic forcing. The rapidly increasing greenhouse gases induce a notable Indian Ocean warming, causing a westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a southward displacement of the East Asia westerly jet (EAJ) on an interdecadal timescale, leading to more precipitation in Yangtze River valley. At the same time the surface cooling effects from the stronger convection, higher precipitation and rapidly increasing anthropogenic aerosols contribute to a reduced summer land–sea thermal contrast. Due to the changes in the WPSH, the EAJ and the land–sea thermal contrast, the East Asian summer monsoon weakened resulting in drought in northern China. Consequently, an anomalous precipitation pattern started to emerge over eastern China in the late 1970s. According to the model, the natural forcing played an opposite role in regulating the changes in WPSH and EAJ, and postponed the anthropogenically forced climate changes in eastern China. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is crucial to the response, and acts as a bridge to link the external forcings and East Asian summer climate together on a decadal and longer timescales. Our results further highlight the dominant roles of anthropogenic forcing agents in shaping interdecadal changes of the East Asian climate during the second half of the 20th century.

Description: We investigate the respective role of variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows for the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This is partly done by analysing long (order of 1000 years) control simulations with five coupled climate models. For all models, the maximum influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is found at about 45° N, while the maximum influence of variations in Nordic Seas overflows is rather found at 55 to 60° N. Regarding the two overflow branches, the influence of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow is, for all models, substantially larger than that of variations in the overflow across the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The latter might, however, be underestimated, as the models in general do not realistically simulate the flow path of the Iceland–Scotland overflow water south of the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is, on multimodel average, larger than that of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow. This is true both at 45° N, where the maximum standard deviation of decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability is located for all but one model, and at the more classical latitude of 30° N. At 30° N, variations in subpolar deep water formation and Denmark Strait overflow explain, on multimodel average, about half and one-third respectively of the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variance. Apart from analysing multimodel control simulations, we have performed sensitivity experiments with one of the models, in which we suppress the variability of either subpolar deep water formation or Nordic Seas overflows. The sensitivity experiments indicate that variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows are not completely independent. We further conclude from these experiments that the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability north of about 50° N is mainly related to variations in Nordic Seas overflows. At 45° N and south of this latitude, variations in both subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows contribute to the AMOC variability, with neither of the processes being very dominant compared to the other.

Description: We investigate the respective role of variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows for the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This is done by analysing long (order of 1000 yr) control simulations with five coupled climate models as well as sensitivity experiments performed with one of the models, in which we suppress the variability of either subpolar deep water formation or Nordic Seas overflows. For all models, the maximum influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is found at about 45° N, while the maximum influence of variations in Nordic Seas overflows is rather found at 55° N to 60° N. Regarding the two overflow branches, the influence of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow is, for all models, substantially larger than that of variations in the overflow across the Iceland–Scotland–Ridge. The influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is, on multi-model average, larger than that of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow. This is true both at 45° N, where the maximum standard deviation of decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability is located for all but one model, and at the more classical latitude of 30° N. At 30° N, variations in subpolar deep water formation and Denmark Strait overflow explain, on multi-model average, about half and one third respectively of the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variance.

Description: Using a fully coupled global climate-carbon cycle model, we assess the potential role of volcanic eruptions on future projection of climate change and its associated carbon cycle feedback. The volcanic-like forcings are applied together with a business-as-usual IPCC-A2 carbon emissions scenario. We show that very large volcanic eruptions similar to Tambora lead to short-term substantial global cooling. However, over a long period, smaller eruptions similar to Pinatubo in amplitude, but set to occur frequently, would have a stronger impact on future climate change. In a scenario where the volcanic external forcings are prescribed with a five-year frequency, the induced cooling immediately lower the global temperature by more than one degree before it returns to the warming trend. Therefore, the climate change is approximately delayed by several decades, and by the end of the 21st century, the warming is still below two degrees when compared to the present day period. Our climate-carbon feedback analysis shows that future volcanic eruptions induce positive feedbacks (i.e., more carbon sink) on both the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle. The feedback signal on the ocean is consistently smaller than the terrestrial counterpart and the feedback strength is proportionally related to the frequency of the volcanic eruption events. The cooler climate reduces the terrestrial heterotrophic respiration in the northern high latitude and increases net primary production in the tropics, which contributes to more than 45 % increase in accumulated carbon uptake over land. The increased solubility of CO2 gas in seawater associated with cooler SST is offset by a reduced CO2 partial pressure gradient between the ocean and the atmosphere, which results in small changes in net ocean carbon uptake. Similarly, there is nearly no change in the seawater buffer capacity simulated between the different volcanic scenarios. Our study shows that even in the relatively extreme scenario where large volcanic eruptions occur every five-years period, the induced cooling leads to a reduction of 46 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration as compared to the reference projection of 878 ppmv, at the end of the 21st century.

Description: Using a fully coupled global climate-carbon cycle model, we assess the potential role of volcanic eruptions on future projection of climate change and its associated carbon cycle feedback. The volcanic-like forcings are applied together with business-as-usual IPCC-A2 carbon emissions scenario. We show that very large volcanic eruptions similar to Tambora lead to short-term substantial global cooling. However, over a long period, smaller but more frequent eruptions, such as Pinatubo, would have a stronger impact on future climate change. In a scenario where the volcanic external forcings are prescribed with a five-year frequency, the induced cooling immediately lower the global temperature by more than one degree before return to the warming trend. Therefore, the climate change is approximately delayed by several decades and by the end of the 21st century, the warming is still below two degrees when compared to the present day period. The cooler climate reduces the terrestrial heterotrophic respiration in the northern high latitude and increases net primary production in the tropics, which contributes to more than 45% increase in accumulated carbon uptake over land. The increased solubility of CO2 gas in seawater associated with cooler SST is offset by reduced CO2 partial pressure gradient between ocean and atmosphere, which results in small changes in net ocean carbon uptake. Similarly, there is nearly no change in the seawater buffer capacity simulated between the different volcanic scenarios. Our study shows that even in the relatively extreme scenario where large volcanic eruptions occur every five-years period, the induced cooling only leads to a reduction of 46 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration as compared to the reference projection of 878 ppmv, at the end of the 21st century. With respect to sulphur injection geoengineering method, our study suggest that small scale but frequent mitigation is more efficient than the opposite. Moreover, the longer we delay, the more difficult it would be to counteract climate change.

Description: A recent paleo-reconstruction of the strength of the Iceland-Scotland overflow during the last 600 years suggests that its low-frequency variability exhibits strong similarity with paleo-reconstructions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The underlying mechanism of the apparent covarying remains, however, unclear based on paleo-reconstructions alone. In this study we use simulations of the last millennium driven by external forcing reconstructions with three coupled climate models in order to investigate possible mechanisms underlying the apparent covarying. Two of the model simulations show a clear in-phase variation of Iceland-Scotland overflow strength and AMO index. Our analysis indicates that the basinwide AMO index in the externally forced simulations is dominated by the low-latitude SST variability and is not predominantly driven by variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). In the simulations, also a strong (weak) Iceland-Scotland overflow does generally not lead a strong (weak) MOC, suggesting that a large-scale link through the strength of the MOC is not sufficient to explain the (simulated) in-phase variation of Iceland-Scotland overflow strength and AMO index. Rather, a more local link through the influence of the Nordic Seas SST, which is positively correlated with the AMO index, on the Iceland-Scotland overflow strength is responsible for the (simulated) in-phase variation. The Nordic Seas surface state affects, via convective activity, the density structure and the sea surface height (SSH), and consequently the pressure north of the Iceland-Scotland-Ridge. In the model simulation showing a less clear in-phase variation of Iceland-Scotland overflow strength and AMO index, also the wind stress influences the Nordic Seas SSH anomalies associated with the anomalous overflow strength. The details of the mechanisms differ between the three models, underlining the importance of multi-model analysis. Our study demonstrates that paleo-climate simulations provide a useful tool to understand mechanisms and large-scale connections associated with the relatively sparse paleo-observations.

Description: A recent palaeo-reconstruction of the strength of the Iceland–Scotland overflow during the last 600 years suggests that its low-frequency variability exhibits strong similarity with palaeo-reconstructions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The underlying mechanism of the similar variation remains unclear, however, based on palaeo-reconstructions alone. In this study we use simulations of the last millennium driven by external forcing reconstructions with three coupled climate models in order to investigate possible mechanisms underlying the similar variation of Iceland–Scotland overflow strength and AMO index. Similar variation of the two time series is also largely found in the model simulations. Our analysis indicates that the basin-wide AMO index in the externally forced simulations is dominated by the low-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) variability and is not predominantly driven by variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). This result suggests that a large-scale link through the strength of the MOC is not sufficient to explain the (simulated) similar variation of Iceland–Scotland overflow strength and AMO index. Rather, a more local link through the influence of the Nordic seas surface state and density structure, which are positively correlated with the AMO index, on the pressure gradient across the Iceland–Scotland ridge is responsible for the (simulated) similar variation. In the model simulation showing a weaker correlation between the Iceland–Scotland overflow strength and the AMO index, the wind stress in the Nordic seas also influences the overflow strength. Our study demonstrates that palaeo-climate simulations provide a useful tool to understand mechanisms and large-scale connections associated with the relatively sparse palaeo-observations.

Description: Observation shows that eastern China has experienced an interdecadal shift in the summer precipitation during the second half of the 20th century. The summer precipitation increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley, whereas it decreased in northern China. Here we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model and multi-ensemble simulations to show that the interdecadal shift is mainly caused by the combined effect of increasing global greenhouse gases and regional aerosol emissions over China. The rapidly increasing greenhouse gases induce tropical warming and a westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high, leading to more precipitation in Yangtze River Valley. At the same time the aerosol cooling effect over land contributes to a reduced summer land–sea thermal contrast and therefore to a weakened East Asian summer monsoon and to drought in northern China. Consequently, an anomalous precipitation pattern starts to emerge in eastern China in late 1970s. Our results highlight the important role of anthropogenic forcing agents in shaping the weakened East Asian summer monsoon and associated anomalous precipitation in eastern China.