ALBERT

Description: Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47±0.78 ∘C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m−3 and -2.99±9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42±0.32 ∘C, -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 mmol m−3, and -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.

Description: Dissolved manganese (Mn) is a biologically essential element. Moreover, its oxidised form is involved in removing itself and several other trace elements from ocean waters. Here we report the longest thus far (17 500 km length) full-depth ocean section of dissolved Mn in the west Atlantic Ocean, comprising 1320 data values of high accuracy. This is the GA02 transect that is part of the GEOTRACES programme, which aims to understand trace element distributions. The goal of this study is to combine these new observations with new, state-of-the-art, modelling to give a first assessment of the main sources and redistribution of Mn throughout the ocean. To this end, we simulate the distribution of dissolved Mn using a global-scale circulation model. This first model includes simple parameterisations to account for the sources, processes and sinks of Mn in the ocean. Oxidation and (photo)reduction, aggregation and settling, as well as biological uptake and remineralisation by plankton are included in the model. Our model provides, together with the observations, the following insights: – The high surface concentrations of manganese are caused by the combination of photoreduction and sources contributing to the upper ocean. The most important sources are sediments, dust, and, more locally, rivers. – Observations and model simulations suggest that surface Mn in the Atlantic Ocean moves downwards into the southward-flowing North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), but because of strong removal rates there is no elevated concentration of Mn visible any more in the NADW south of 40° N. – The model predicts lower dissolved Mn in surface waters of the Pacific Ocean than the observed concentrations. The intense oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in subsurface waters is deemed to be a major source of dissolved Mn also mixing upwards into surface waters, but the OMZ is not well represented by the model. Improved high-resolution simulation of the OMZ may solve this problem. – There is a mainly homogeneous background concentration of dissolved Mn of about 0.10–0.15 nM throughout most of the deep ocean. The model reproduces this by means of a threshold on particulate manganese oxides of 25 pM, suggesting that a minimal concentration of particulate Mn is needed before aggregation and removal become efficient. – The observed distinct hydrothermal signals are produced by assuming both a strong source and a strong removal of Mn near hydrothermal vents.

Description: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives important changes in the marine productivity of the Equatorial Pacific, in particular during major El Niño/La Niña transitions. Changes in environmental conditions associated with these climatic events also likely impact phytoplankton composition. In this work, the distribution of four major phytoplankton groups (nanoeucaryotes, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and diatoms) was examined between 1996 and 2007 by applying the PHYSAT algorithm to the ocean color data archive from the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). Coincident with the decrease in chlorophyll concentrations, a large-scale shift in the phytoplankton composition of the Equatorial Pacific, that was characterized by a decrease in Synechococcus and an increase in nanoeucaryotes dominance, was observed during the early stages of both the strong El Niño of 1997 and the moderate El Niño of 2006. A significant increase in diatoms dominance was observed in the Equatorial Pacific during the 1998 La Niña and was associated with elevated marine productivity. An analysis of the environmental variables using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model (NEMO-PISCES) suggests that the Synechococcus dominance decrease during the two El Niño events was associated with an abrupt decline in nutrient availability (−0.9 to −2.5 μM NO3 month−1). Alternatively, increased nutrient availability (3 μM NO3 month−1) during the 1998 La Niña resulted in Equatorial Pacific dominance diatom increase. Despite these phytoplankton community shifts, the mean composition is restored after a few months, which suggests resilience in community structure. Such rapid changes to the composition of phytoplankton groups should be considered in future modeling approaches to represent variability of the marine productivity in the Equatorial Pacific and to quantify its potential implications on food-web and on global carbon cycle.

Description: The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known on how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production, which differ primarily at low oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12% in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 Tg N yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs), i.e., in the Eastern Tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production associated primarily with denitrification. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assesment for a compensation between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next generation of Earth System Models.

Description: Cobalt (Co) is an important bioactive trace metal that is the metal cofactor in cobalamin (vitamin B12) which can limit or co-limit phytoplankton growth in many regions of the ocean. Total dissolved and labile Co measurements in the Canadian sector of the Arctic Ocean during the U.S. GEOTRACES Arctic expedition (GN01) and the Canadian International Polar Year GEOTRACES expedition (GIPY14) revealed a dynamic biogeochemical cycle for Co in this basin. The major sources of Co in the Arctic were from shelf regions and rivers, with only minimal contributions from other freshwater sources (sea ice, snow) and eolian deposition. The most striking feature was the extremely high concentrations of dissolved Co in the upper 100 m, with concentrations routinely exceeding 800 pmol L−1 over the shelf regions. This plume of high Co persisted throughout the Arctic basin and extended to the North Pole, where sources of Co shifted from primarily shelf-derived to riverine, as freshwater from Arctic rivers was entrained in the Transpolar Drift. Dissolved Co was also strongly organically complexed in the Arctic, ranging from 70 % to 100 % complexed in the surface and deep ocean, respectively. Deep-water concentrations of dissolved Co were remarkably consistent throughout the basin (∼55 pmol L−1), with concentrations reflecting those of deep Atlantic water and deep-ocean scavenging of dissolved Co. A biogeochemical model of Co cycling was used to support the hypothesis that the majority of the high surface Co in the Arctic was emanating from the shelf. The model showed that the high concentrations of Co observed were due to the large shelf area of the Arctic, as well as to dampened scavenging of Co by manganese-oxidizing (Mn-oxidizing) bacteria due to the lower temperatures. The majority of this scavenging appears to have occurred in the upper 200 m, with minimal additional scavenging below this depth. Evidence suggests that both dissolved Co (dCo) and labile Co (LCo) are increasing over time on the Arctic shelf, and these limited temporal results are consistent with other tracers in the Arctic. These elevated surface concentrations of Co likely lead to a net flux of Co out of the Arctic, with implications for downstream biological uptake of Co in the North Atlantic and elevated Co in North Atlantic Deep Water. Understanding the current distributions of Co in the Arctic will be important for constraining changes to Co inputs resulting from regional intensification of freshwater fluxes from ice and permafrost melt in response to ongoing climate change.

Description: PISCES-v2 is a biogeochemical model which simulates the lower trophic levels of marine ecosystem (phytoplankton, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and of the main nutrients (P, N, Fe, and Si). The model is intended to be used for both regional and global configurations at high or low spatial resolutions as well as for short-term (seasonal, interannual) and long-term (climate change, paleoceanography) analyses. There are twenty-four prognostic variables (tracers) including two phytoplankton compartments (diatoms and nanophytoplankton), two zooplankton size-classes (microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and a description of the carbonate chemistry. Formulations in PISCES-v2 are based on a mixed Monod–Quota formalism: on one hand, stoichiometry of C/N/P is fixed and growth rate of phytoplankton is limited by the external availability in N, P and Si. On the other hand, the iron and silicium quotas are variable and growth rate of phytoplankton is limited by the internal availability in Fe. Various parameterizations can be activated in PISCES-v2, setting for instance the complexity of iron chemistry or the description of particulate organic materials. So far, PISCES-v2 has been coupled to the NEMO and ROMS systems. A full description of PISCES-v2 and of its optional functionalities is provided here. The results of a quasi-steady state simulation are presented and evaluated against diverse observational and satellite-derived data. Finally, some of the new functionalities of PISCES-v2 are tested in a series of sensitivity experiments.

Description: Marine sediments records suggest large changes in marine productivity during glacial periods, with abrupt variations especially during the Heinrich events. Here, we study the response of marine biogeochemistry to such an event by using a biogeochemical model of the global ocean (PISCES) coupled to an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (IPSL-CM4). We conduct a 400-yr-long transient simulation under glacial climate conditions with a freshwater forcing of 0.1 Sv applied to the North Atlantic to mimic a Heinrich event, alongside a glacial control simulation. To evaluate our numerical results, we have compiled the available marine productivity records covering Heinrich events. We find that simulated primary productivity and organic carbon export decrease globally (by 16% for both) during a Heinrich event, albeit with large regional variations. In our experiments, the North Atlantic displays a significant decrease, whereas the Southern Ocean shows an increase, in agreement with paleo-productivity reconstructions. In the Equatorial Pacific, the model simulates an increase in organic matter export production but decreased biogenic silica export. This antagonistic behaviour results from changes in relative uptake of carbon and silicic acid by diatoms. Reasonable agreement between model and data for the large-scale response to Heinrich events gives confidence in models used to predict future centennial changes in marine production. In addition, our model allows us to investigate the mechanisms behind the observed changes in the response to Heinrich events.

Description: Marine sediments records suggest large changes in marine productivity during glacial periods, with abrupt variations especially during the Heinrich events. Here, we study the response of marine biogeochemistry to such an event by using a biogeochemical model of the global ocean (PISCES) coupled to an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (IPSL-CM4). We conduct a 400-yr-long transient simulation under glacial climate conditions with a freshwater forcing of 0.1 Sv applied to the North Atlantic to mimic a Heinrich event, alongside a glacial control simulation. To evaluate our numerical results, we have compiled the available marine productivity records covering Heinrich events. We find that simulated primary productivity and organic carbon export decrease globally (16% for both) during a Heinrich event, albeit with large regional variations. In our experiments, the North Atlantic displays a significant decrease, whereas the Southern Ocean shows an increase, in agreement with paleo-productivity reconstructions. In the Equatorial Pacific, the model simulates an increase in organic matter export production but decreased biogenic silica export. This opposite behaviour results from changes in relative uptake of carbon and silicic acid by diatoms. Reasonable agreement between model and data for the large-scale response to Heinrich events gives confidence in models used to predict future centennial changes in marine production. In addition, our model enables to decipher the mechanisms behind the observed changes in the response to Heinrich events.

Description: We use a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model to examine the impact of changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in governing the change in ocean carbon-13 and atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial maximum (LGM). We examine 5 different realisations of the ocean's overturning circulation produced by a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model under LGM forcing and suggested changes in the atmospheric deposition of iron and phytoplankton physiology at the LGM. Measured changes in carbon-13 and carbon-14, as well as a qualitative reconstruction of the change in ocean carbon export are used to evaluate the results. Overall, we find that while a reduction in ocean ventilation at the LGM is necessary to reproduce carbon-13 and carbon-14 observations, this circulation results in a low net sink for atmospheric CO2. In contrast, while biogeochemical processes contribute little to carbon isotopes, we propose that most of the change in atmospheric CO2 was due to such factors. However, the lesser role for circulation means that when all plausible factors are accounted for, most of the necessary CO2 change remains to be explained. This presents a serious challenge to our understanding of the mechanisms behind changes in the global carbon cycle during the geologic past.

Description: We use a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model to examine the impact of changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in governing the change in ocean carbon-13 and atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial maximum (LGM). We examine 5 different realisations of the ocean's overturning circulation produced by a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model under LGM forcing and suggested changes in the atmospheric deposition of iron and phytoplankton physiology at the LGM. Measured changes in carbon-13 and carbon-14, as well as a qualitative reconstruction of the change in ocean carbon export are used to evaluate the results. Overall, we find that while a reduction in ocean ventilation at the LGM is necessary to reproduce carbon-13 and carbon-14 observations, this circulation results in a low net sink for atmospheric CO2. In contrast, while biogeochemical processes contribute little to carbon isotopes, we can attribute over 90% of the change in atmospheric CO2 to such factors. The lesser role for circulation means that when all plausible factors are accounted for, over half of the necessary CO2 change remains to be explained. This presents a serious challenge to our understanding of the mechanisms behind changes in the global carbon cycle during the geologic past.