ALBERT

Description: Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (

Description: The response of the Earth System to greenhouse-gas driven warming is of critical importance for the future trajectory of our planetary environment. Hypethermal events – past climate transients with significant global-scale warming – can provide insights into the nature and magnitude of these responses. The largest hyperthermal of the Cenozoic was the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM ~ 56 Ma). Here we present a new high-resolution cyclostratigraphy for the classic PETM section at Zumaia, Spain. With this new age model we are able to demonstrate that detrital sediment accumulation rates within this continental margin section increased more than four-fold during the PETM, representing a radical change in regional hydrology that drove dramatic increases in terrestrial to marine sediment flux. During the body of the PETM, orbital-scale variations in bulk sediment Si/Fe ratios are evidence for the continued orbital pacing of sediment erosion and transport processes, most likely linked to precession controls on sub-tropical hydroclimates. Most remarkable is that detrital accumulation rates remain high throughout the body of the PETM, and even reach peak values during the recovery phase of the characteristic PETM carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Using a series of Earth System Model inversions, we demonstrate that the silicate weathering feedback alone is insufficient to recover the PETM CIE, and that active organic carbon burial is required to match the observed dynamics of the CIE. Further, that the period of maximum organic carbon sequestration coincides with the peak in detrital accumulation rates observed at Zumaia. Based on these results, we hypothesize that precession controls on tropical and sub-tropical hydroclimates, and the sediment dynamics associated with this variation, play a significant role in the timing of the rapid climate and CIE recovery from peak-PETM conditions.

Description: During the period from approximately 150 to 35 million years ago, the Cretaceous–Paleocene–Eocene (CPE), the Earth was in a “greenhouse” state with little or no ice at either pole. It was also a period of considerable global change, from the warmest periods of the mid-Cretaceous, to the threshold of icehouse conditions at the end of the Eocene. However, the relative contribution of palaeogeographic change, solar change, and carbon cycle change to these climatic variations is unknown. Here, making use of recent advances in computing power, and a set of unique palaeogeographic maps, we carry out an ensemble of 19 General Circulation Model simulations covering this period, one simulation per stratigraphic stage. By maintaining atmospheric CO2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the CPE, and explore the underlying mechanisms. We find that global mean surface temperature is remarkably constant across the simulations, resulting from a cancellation of opposing trends from solar and palaeogeographic change. However, there are significant modelled variations on a regional scale. The stratigraphic stage–stage transitions which exhibit greatest climatic change are associated with transitions in the mode of ocean circulation, themselves often associated with changes in ocean gateways, and amplified by feedbacks related to emissivity and planetary albedo. We also find some control on global mean temperature from continental area and global mean orography. Our results have important implications for the interpretation of single-site palaeo proxy records. In particular, our results allow the non-CO2 (i.e. palaeogeographic and solar constant) components of proxy records to be removed, leaving a more global component associated with carbon cycle change. This “adjustment factor” is used to adjust sea surface temperatures, as the deep ocean is not fully equilibrated in the model. The adjustment factor is illustrated for seven key sites in the CPE, and applied to proxy data from Falkland Plateau, and we provide data so that similar adjustments can be made to any site and for any time period within the CPE. Ultimately, this will enable isolation of the CO2-forced climate signal to be extracted from multiple proxy records from around the globe, allowing an evaluation of the regional signals and extent of polar amplification in response to CO2 changes during the CPE. Finally, regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the CPE could indicate places where future proxies could be targeted in order to reconstruct the purest CO2-induced temperature change, where the complicating contributions of other processes are minimised. Therefore, combined with other considerations, this work could provide useful information for supporting targets for drilling localities and outcrop studies.

Description: A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P − E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP∕dT) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Description: Cryospheric changes in northern high latitudes are linked to significant greenhouse gas flux to the atmosphere, for example, methane that originates from organic matter decomposition in thermokarst lakes. The set of pathways that link methane production in sediments, via oxidation in the lake system, to the flux of residual methane to the atmosphere is complex and exhibits temporal and spatial variation. The isotopic signal of bacterial biomarkers (hopanoids, e.g. diploptene) in sediments has been used to identify contemporary ocean-floor methane seeps and, in the geological record, periods of enhanced methane production (e.g. the PETM). The biomarker approach could potentially be used to assess temporal changes in lake emissions through the Holocene via the sedimentary biomarker record. However, there are no data on the consistency of the signal of isotopic depletion in relation to source or on the amount of noise (unexplained variation) in biomarker values from modern lake sediments. We assessed methane oxidation as represented by the isotopic signal of biomarkers from methane oxidising bacteria (MOB) in multiple surface sediment samples in three distinct areas known to emit varying levels of methane in two shallow Alaskan thermokarst lakes. Diploptene was present and had δ13C values lower than −38 ‰ in all sediments analysed, suggesting methane oxidation was widespread. However, there was considerable variation in δ13C values within each area. The most 13C-depleted diploptene was found in an area of high methane ebullition in Ace Lake (diploptene δ13C values between −68.2 and −50.1 ‰). In contrast, significantly higher diploptene δ13C values (between −42.9 and −38.8 ‰) were found in an area of methane ebullition in Smith Lake. δ13C values of diploptene between −56.8 and −46.9 ‰ were found in the centre of Smith Lake, where ebullition rates are low but diffusive methane efflux occurs. The small-scale heterogeneity of the samples may reflect patchy distribution of substrate and/or MOB within the sediments. The two ebullition areas differ in age and type of organic carbon substrate, which may affect methane production, transport, and subsequent oxidation. Given the high amount of variation in surface samples, a more extensive calibration of modern sediment properties, within and among lakes, is required before down-core records of hopanoid isotopic signatures are developed.

Description: Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas produced in wetland environments via microbial action in anaerobic conditions. If the location and extent of wetlands are unknown, such as for the Earth many millions of years in the past, a model of wetland fraction is required in order to calculate methane emissions and thus help reduce uncertainty in the understanding of past warm greenhouse climates. Here we present an algorithm for predicting inundated wetland fraction for use in calculating wetland methane emission fluxes in deep-time paleoclimate simulations. For each grid cell in a given paleoclimate simulation, the algorithm determines the wetland fraction predicted by a nearest-neighbour search of modern-day data in a space described by a set of environmental, climate and vegetation variables. To explore this approach, we first test it for a modern-day climate with variables obtained from observations and then for an Eocene climate with variables derived from a fully coupled global climate model (HadCM3BL-M2.2; Valdes et al., 2017). Two independent dynamic vegetation models were used to provide two sets of equivalent vegetation variables which yielded two different wetland predictions. As a first test, the method, using both vegetation models, satisfactorily reproduces modern day wetland fraction at a course grid resolution, similar to those used in paleoclimate simulations. We then applied the method to an early Eocene climate, testing its outputs against the locations of Eocene coal deposits. We predict global mean monthly wetland fraction area for the early Eocene of 8×106 to 10×106 km2 with a corresponding total annual methane flux of 656 to 909 Tg CH4 yr−1, depending on which of the two different dynamic global vegetation models are used to model wetland fraction and methane emission rates. Both values are significantly higher than estimates for the modern day of 4×106 km2 and around 190 Tg CH4 yr−1 (Poulter et al., 2017; Melton et al., 2013).

Description: Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas produced in wetland environments via microbial action in anaerobic conditions. If the location and extent of wetlands are unknown, such as for the Earth many millions of years in the past, a model of wetland fraction is required in order to calculate methane emissions and thus help reduce uncertainty in the understanding of past warm greenhouse climates. Here we present an algorithm for predicting inundated wetland fraction for use in calculating wetland methane emission fluxes in deep time paleoclimate simulations. The algorithm determines, for each grid cell in a given paleoclimate simulation, the wetland fraction predicted by a nearest neighbours search of modern day data in a space described by a set of environmental, climate and vegetation variables. To explore this approach, we first test it for a modern day climate with variables obtained from observations and then for an Eocene climate with variables derived from a fully coupled global climate model (HadCM3BL-M2.2). Two independent dynamic vegetation models were used to provide two sets of equivalent vegetation variables which yielded two different wetland predictions. As a first test the method, using both vegetation models, satisfactorily reproduces modern data wetland fraction at a course grid resolution, similar to those used in paleoclimate simulations. We then applied the method to an early Eocene climate, testing its outputs against the locations of Eocene coal deposits. We predict global mean monthly wetland fraction area for the early Eocene of 8 to 10 × 106km2 with corresponding total annual methane flux of 656 to 909 Tg, depending on which of two different dynamic global vegetation models are used to model wetland fraction and methane emission rates. Both values are significantly higher than estimates for the modern-day of 4 × 106km2 and around 190Tg (Poulter et. al. 2017, Melton et. al., 2013).

Description: Atmospheric pCO2 is a critical component of the global carbon system and is considered to be the major control of Earth's past, present and future climate. Accurate and precise reconstructions of its concentration through geological time are, therefore, crucial to our understanding of the Earth system. Ice core records document pCO2 for the past 800kyrs, but at no point during this interval were CO2 levels higher than today. Interpretation of older pCO2 has been hampered by discrepancies during some time intervals between two of the main ocean-based proxy methods used to reconstruct pCO2: the carbon isotope fractionation that occurs during photosynthesis as recorded by haptophyte biomarkers (alkenones) and the boron isotope composition (δ11B) of foraminifer shells. Here we present alkenone and δ11B-based pCO2 reconstructions generated from the same samples from the Plio-Pleistocene at ODP Site 999 across a glacial-interglacial cycle. We find a muted response to pCO2 in the alkenone record compared to contemporaneous ice core and δ11B records, suggesting caution in the interpretation of alkenone-based records at low pCO2 levels. This is possibly caused by the physiology of CO2 uptake in the haptophytes. Our new understanding resolves some of the inconsistencies between the proxies and highlights that caution may be required when interpreting alkenone-based reconstructions of pCO2.

Description: The early Eocene (56 to 48 million years ago) is inferred to have been the most recent time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Global mean temperatures were also substantially warmer than present day. As such, study of early Eocene climate provides insight into how a super-warm Earth system behaves and offers an opportunity to evaluate climate models under conditions of high greenhouse gas forcing. The Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a systematic model-model and model-data intercomparison of three early Paleogne time slices: latest Paleocene, Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum and early Eocene climatic optimum. A previous article outlined the model experimental design for climate model simulations. In this article, we outline the methodologies to be used for the compilation and analysis of climate proxy data, primarily proxies for temperature and CO2. This paper establishes the protocols for a concerted and coordinated effort to compile the climate proxy records across a wide geographic range. The resulting climate atlas will be used to constrain and evaluate climate models for the three selected time intervals, and provide insights into the mechanisms that control these warm climate states. We provide version 0.1 of this database, in anticipation that this will be expanded in subsequent publications.

Description: The response of the Earth system to greenhouse-gas-driven warming is of critical importance for the future trajectory of our planetary environment. Hyperthermal events – past climate transients with global-scale warming significantly above background climate variability – can provide insights into the nature and magnitude of these responses. The largest hyperthermal of the Cenozoic was the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM ∼ 56 Ma). Here we present new high-resolution bulk sediment stable isotope and major element data for the classic PETM section at Zumaia, Spain. With these data we provide a new detailed stratigraphic correlation to other key deep-ocean and terrestrial PETM reference sections. With this new correlation and age model we are able to demonstrate that detrital sediment accumulation rates within the Zumaia continental margin section increased more than 4-fold during the PETM, representing a radical change in regional hydrology that drove dramatic increases in terrestrial-to-marine sediment flux. Most remarkable is that detrital accumulation rates remain high throughout the body of the PETM, and even reach peak values during the recovery phase of the characteristic PETM carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Using a series of Earth system model inversions, driven by the new Zumaia carbon isotope record, we demonstrate that the silicate weathering feedback alone is insufficient to recover the PETM CIE, and that active organic carbon burial is required to match the observed dynamics of the CIE. Further, we demonstrate that the period of maximum organic carbon sequestration coincides with the peak in detrital accumulation rates observed at Zumaia. Based on these results, we hypothesise that orbital-scale variations in subtropical hydro-climates, and their subsequent impact on sediment dynamics, may contribute to the rapid climate and CIE recovery from peak-PETM conditions.