ALBERT

Description: The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP), chemistry transport, and climate chemistry models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 hours) within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to differ between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF). The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for the modelling of the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through species such as bromoform, or for the transport of short lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are found to be strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and boundary layer mixing parameterisations of the models. The location of rapid transport into the upper troposphere is similar among the models, and is mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, none of the models indicates significant enhancement in upward transport over western Africa. The mean mixing ratios of an idealised CO like tracer in the upper tropical troposphere are found to be sensitive to the surface CO mixing ratios in the regions with the most active convection, revealing the importance of correctly modelling both the location of convective transport and the geographical pollutant emission patterns.

Description: This paper describes and assesses the performance of the RAL (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory) ozone profile retrieval scheme for the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2) with a~focus on tropospheric ozone. Developments to the scheme since its application to GOME-1 measurements are outlined. These include the approaches developed to account sufficiently for UV radiometric degradation in the Hartley band and for inadequacies in knowledge of instrumental parameters in the Huggins bands to achieve the high precision spectral fit required to extract information on tropospheric ozone. The assessment includes a validation against ozonesondes (sondes) sampled worldwide over two years (2007–2008). Standard deviations of the ensemble with respect to the sondes are considerably lower for the retrieved profiles than for the a priori, with the exception of the lowest sub-column. Once retrieval vertical smoothing (averaging kernels) has been applied to the sonde profiles there is a retrieval bias of 6% (1.5 DU) in the lower troposphere, with smaller biases in the sub-columns above. The bias in the troposphere varies with latitude. The retrieval underestimates lower tropospheric ozone in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) (15–20% or ~ 1–3 DU) and overestimates it in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) (10% or 2 DU). The ability of the retrieval to represent the geographical distribution of lower tropospheric ozone, globally (rather than just ozonesonde launch sites) is demonstrated through agreement with the chemistry transport model TOMCAT. For a monthly mean of cloud-cleared GOME-2 pixels, a correlation of 0.66 is found between the retrieval and TOMCAT sampled accordingly, with a bias of 0.7 Dobson Units. GOME-2 estimates higher concentrations in NH pollution centres but lower ozone in the Southern Ocean and South Pacific, which is consistent with the comparison to ozonesondes.

Description: The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP), chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h) within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF). The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

Description: The release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere as a result of clathrate destabilization is a potential mechanism for rapid amplification of global warming. Previous studies have calculated the enhanced warming based mainly on the radiative effect of the methane itself, with smaller contributions from the associated carbon dioxide or ozone increases. Here, we study the effect of strongly elevated methane (CH4) levels on oxidant and aerosol particle concentrations using a combination of chemistry-transport and general circulation models. A 10-fold increase in methane concentrations is predicted to significantly decrease hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, while moderately increasing ozone (O3). These changes lead to a 70 % increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane, and an 18 % decrease in global mean cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC). The CDNC change causes a radiative forcing that is comparable in magnitude to the longwave radiative forcing ("enhanced greenhouse effect") of the added methane. Together, the indirect CH4-O3 and CH4-OH-aerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously large temperature changes associated with historic methane releases.

Description: Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidising capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF (National Science Foundation) HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38%) to 0.78 (115%) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24%) to 1.25 (167%) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical western Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (BryVSLS). Our simulations show BryVSLS ranges from ~4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimised estimate at the lower end of this range (~4 ppt) based on combining the CHBr3 and CH2Br2 inventories which give best agreement with the compilation of observations in the tropics.

Description: The Mediterranean troposphere exhibits a marked and localised summertime ozone maximum, which has the potential to strongly impact regional air quality and radiative forcing. The Mediterranean region can be perturbed by long-range pollution import from Northern Europe, North America and Asia, in addition to local emissions, which may all contribute to regional ozone enhancements. We exploit ozone profile observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) satellite instruments, and an offline 3-D global chemical transport model (TOMCAT) to investigate the geographical and vertical structure of the summertime tropospheric ozone maximum over the Mediterranean region. We show that both TES and GOME-2 are able to detect enhanced levels of ozone in the lower troposphere over the region during the summer. These observations, together with surface measurements, are used to evaluate the TOMCAT model's ability to capture the observed ozone enhancement. The model is used to quantify sensitivities of the ozone maximum to anthropogenic and natural volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, anthropogenic NOx emissions, wildfire emissions and long-range import of ozone and precursors. Our results show a dominant sensitivity to natural VOC emissions in the Mediterranean basin over anthropogenic VOC emissions. However, local anthropogenic NOx emissions are result in the overall largest sensitivity in near-surface ozone. We also show that in the lower troposphere, global VOC emissions account for 40% of the ozone sensitivity to VOC emissions in the region, whereas, for NOx the ozone sensitivity to local sources is 9 times greater than that for global emissions at these altitudes. However, in the mid and upper troposphere ozone is most sensitive to non-local emission sources. In terms of radiative effects on regional climate, ozone contributions from non-local emission sources are more important, as these have a larger impact on ozone in the upper troposphere where its radiative effects are larger, with Asian monsoon outflow having the greatest impact. Our results allow improved understanding of the large-scale processes controlling air quality and climate in the region of the Mediterranean basin.

Description: We have developed a detailed chemical scheme for the degradation of the short-lived source gases bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2) and implemented it in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model (CTM). The CTM has been used to predict the distribution of the two source gases (SGs) and 11 of their organic product gases (PGs). These first global calculations of the organic PGs show that their abundance is small. The longest lived organic PGs are CBr2O and CHBrO, but their peak tropospheric abundance relative to the surface volume mixing ratio (vmr) of the SGs is less than 5%. We calculate their mean local tropospheric lifetimes in the tropics to be ~7 and ~2 days (due to photolysis), respectively. Therefore, the assumption in previous modelling studies that SG degradation leads immediately to inorganic bromine seems reasonable. We have compared observed tropical SG profiles from a number of aircraft campaigns with various model experiments. In the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) we find that the CTM run using p levels (TOMCAT) and vertical winds from analysed divergence overestimates the abundance of CH2Br2, and to a lesser extent CHBr3, although the data is sparse and comparisons are not conclusive. Better agreement in the TTL is obtained in the sensitivity run using θ levels (SLIMCAT) and vertical motion from diabatic heating rates. Trajectory estimates of residence times in the two model versions show slower vertical transport in the SLIMCAT θ-level version. In the p-level model even when we switch off convection we still find significant amounts of the SGs considered may reach the cold point tropopause; the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) is only reduced by ~16% for CHBr3 and ~2% for CH2Br2 without convection. Overall, the relative importance of the SG pathway and the PG pathway for transport of bromine to the stratospheric overworld (θ〉380 K) has been assessed. Assuming a 10-day washout lifetime of Bry in TOMCAT, we find the delivery of total Br from CHBr3 to be 0.72 pptv with ~53% of this coming from SGI. Similary, for CH2Br2 we find a total Br value of 1.69 pptv with ~94% coming from SGI. We infer that these species contribute ~2.4 pptv of inorganic bromine to the lower stratosphere with SGI being the dominant pathway. Slower transport to and through the TTL would decrease this estimate.

Description: The release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere as a result of clathrate destabilization is a potential mechanism for rapid amplification of global warming. Previous studies have calculated the enhanced warming based mainly on the radiative effect of the methane itself, with smaller contributions from the associated carbon dioxide or ozone increases. Here, we study the effect of strongly elevated methane (CH4) levels on oxidant and aerosol particle concentrations using a combination of chemistry-transport and general circulation models. A 10-fold increase in methane concentrations is predicted to significantly decrease hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, while moderately increasing ozone (O3). These changes lead to a 70% increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane, and an 18% decrease in global mean cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC). The CDNC change causes a radiative forcing that is comparable in magnitude to the longwave radiative forcing ("enhanced greenhouse effect") of the added methane. Together, the indirect CH4-O3 and CH4-OH-aerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously large temperature changes associated with historic methane releases.

Description: Atmospheric chemistry is driven by photolytic reactions, making their modelling a crucial component of atmospheric models. We describe the implementation and validation of Fast-JX, a state of the art model of interactive photolysis, into the MetUM chemistry-climate model. This allows for interactive photolysis rates to be calculated in the troposphere and augments the calculation of the rates in the stratosphere by accounting for clouds and aerosols in addition to ozone. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new photolysis scheme we employ new methods of validating the model, including techniques for sampling the model to compare to flight track and satellite data.

Description: Fluorine-containing species can be extremely effective atmospheric greenhouse gases. We present fluorine budgets using organic and inorganic species retrieved by the ACE-FTS satellite instrument supplemented with output from the SLIMCAT 3D chemical transport model. The budgets are calculated between 2004 and 2009 for a number of latitude bands: 70–30° N, 30–0° N, 0–30° S, and 30–70° S. At lower altitudes total fluorine profiles are dominated by the contribution from CFC-12, up to an altitude of 20 km in the extra-tropics and 29 km in the tropics, above these altitudes the profiles are dominated by HF. Our data show that total fluorine profiles at all locations have a negative slope with altitude, providing evidence that overall fluorine emissions (measured by their F content) have been increasing with time. Total stratospheric fluorine is increasing at a similar rate in the tropics; 32.5 ± 4.9 ppt yr−1 (1.31 ± 0.20% per year) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and 29.8 ± 5.3 ppt yr−1 (1.21 ± 0.22% per year) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Extra-tropical total stratospheric fluorine is also increasing at a similar rate in both the NH and SH; 28.3 ± 2.7 ppt per year (1.12 ± 0.11% per year) in the NH and 24.3 ± 3.1 ppt per year (0.96 ± 0.12% per year) in the SH. The volume mixing ratio of each species used in this study was weighted by its global warming potential (GWP), relative molecular mass and the atmospheric pressure to produce a GWP-weighted total fluorine trend. These trends show mean changes of 0.02 ± 0.08% per year in the NH, and 0.07 ± 0.05% per year in the SH. Overall, GWP-weighted fluorine remains roughly constant globally. However, the decreasing trends in the mixing ratios of halons and CFCs, due to their prohibition under the Montreal Protocol, have suppressed an increase in total fluorine caused by increasing mixing ratios of HFCs. This has reduced the impact of fluorine containing species on global warming.