ALBERT

Description: This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison, but are discussed separately. The Met Office results highlight the pitfalls in humidity assimilation, and provide lessons that should be learnt by developers of stratospheric humidity assimilation systems. In particular, they underline the importance of the background error covariances in generating a realistic troposphere to mesosphere water vapour analysis.

Description: This paper evaluates the performance of various linear ozone photochemistry parametrizations using the stratosphere-troposphere data assimilation system of the Met Office. A set of experiments were run for the period 23 September 2003 to 5 November 2003 using the Cariolle (v1.0 and v2.1), LINOZ and Chem2D-OPP (v0.1 and v2.1) parametrizations. All operational meteorological observations were assimilated, together with ozone retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). Experiments were validated against independent data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and ozonesondes. Additionally, a simple offline method for comparing the parametrizations is introduced. It is shown that in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, outside the polar night, ozone analyses are controlled by the photochemistry parametrizations and not by the assimilated observations. The most important factor in getting good results at these levels is to pay attention to the ozone and temperature climatologies in the parametrizations. There should be no discrepancies between the climatologies and the assimilated observations or the model, but there is also a competing demand that the climatologies be objectively accurate in themselves. Conversely, in the lower stratosphere outside regions of heterogeneous ozone depletion, the ozone analyses are dominated by observational increments and the photochemistry parametrizations have little influence. We investigate a number of known problems in LINOZ and Cariolle v1.0 in more detail than previously, and we find discrepancies in Cariolle v2.1 and Chem2D-OPP v2.1, which are demonstrated to have been removed in the latest available versions (v2.8 and v2.6 respectively). In general, however, all the parametrizations work well through much of the stratosphere, helped by the presence of good quality assimilated MIPAS observations.

Description: In this paper we present a case study of a record low ozone event observed over the UK in January 2006. We focus on the dynamical processes that cause this event. This is done by examining the observations, meteorological analyses and back trajectories calculated by the NAME III atmospheric dispersion model. We show that this model, hitherto only used for tropospheric pollution studies, can be an important and effective tool for the examination of transport in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) and mid-stratosphere regions. A record low total ozone column of 177 DU was observed at Reading, UK, on 19 January 2006. Low ozone values were also recorded at other stations in Northwest Europe around this date. Ozonesonde measurements indicate the depletion is occurring in two distinct vertical regions, with around a third of the reduction in total ozone column values originating from the mid-stratosphere and the rest from the UTLS region. Evidence suggests that air inside the stratospheric polar vortex was poor in ozone prior to 19 January and the occurrence of a major stratospheric warming shifted this air over Northwest Europe. In addition we show that moderate ozone depletion, related to the lifting of the tropopause and divergence in the lower stratosphere associated with the presence of an anticyclone, is also a plausible mechanism for the record low ozone column that is observed. In order to confirm that both mid-stratosphere and UTLS transport processes are responsible for the record low ozone values, we perform turbulent back trajectory calculations using the Met Office NAME III model. The results show that air parcels in the mid-stratosphere that arrive over the British Isles on 19 January originate in the polar vortex, and furthermore that air parcels near the tropopause arrive from low latitudes and are transported anticyclonically. Therefore this strongly suggests that the record low ozone values are due to a combination of a raised tropopause with increased divergence in the lower stratosphere and the presence of low ozone stratospheric air aloft.

Description: This paper aims to summarise the current performance of ozone data assimilation (DA) systems, to show where they can be improved, and to quantify their errors. It examines 11 sets of ozone analyses from 7 different DA systems. Two are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems based on general circulation models (GCMs); the other five use chemistry transport models (CTMs). The systems examined contain either linearised or detailed ozone chemistry, or no chemistry at all. In most analyses, MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) ozone data are assimilated; two assimilate SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography) observations instead. Analyses are compared to independent ozone observations covering the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the period July to November 2003. Biases and standard deviations are largest, and show the largest divergence between systems, in the troposphere, in the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere, in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere, and the Antarctic ozone hole region. However, in any particular area, apart from the troposphere, at least one system can be found that agrees well with independent data. In general, none of the differences can be linked to the assimilation technique (Kalman filter, three or four dimensional variational methods, direct inversion) or the system (CTM or NWP system). Where results diverge, a main explanation is the way ozone is modelled. It is important to correctly model transport at the tropical tropopause, to avoid positive biases and excessive structure in the ozone field. In the southern hemisphere ozone hole, only the analyses which correctly model heterogeneous ozone depletion are able to reproduce the near-complete ozone destruction over the pole. In the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere (above 5 hPa), some ozone photochemistry schemes caused large but easily remedied biases. The diurnal cycle of ozone in the mesosphere is not captured, except by the one system that includes a detailed treatment of mesospheric chemistry. These results indicate that when good observations are available for assimilation, the first priority for improving ozone DA systems is to improve the models. The analyses benefit strongly from the good quality of the MIPAS ozone observations. Using the analyses as a transfer standard, it is seen that MIPAS is ~5% higher than HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) in the mid and upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above 30 hPa), and of order 10% higher than ozonesonde and HALOE in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa to 30 hPa). Analyses based on SCIAMACHY total column are almost as good as the MIPAS analyses; analyses based on SCIAMACHY limb profiles are worse in some areas, due to problems in the SCIAMACHY retrievals.

Description: This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison, but are discussed separately. The Met Office results highlight the pitfalls in humidity assimilation, and provide lessons that should be learnt by developers of stratospheric humidity assimilation systems. In particular, they underline the importance of the background error covariances in generating a realistic troposphere to mesosphere water vapour analysis.

Description: The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.

Description: Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over 〉106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes.

Description: We present here the first application of a lightweight unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) system designed to measure turbulent properties and vertical latent heat fluxes (λE). Such measurements are crucial to improve our understanding of linkages between surface moisture supply and boundary layer clouds and phenomena such as atmospheric rivers. The application of UAVs allows for measurements on spatial scales complimentary to satellite, aircraft, and tower derived fluxes. Key system components are: a turbulent gust probe; a fast response water vapor sensor; an inertial navigation system (INS) coupled to global positioning system (GPS); and a 100 Hz data logging system. We present measurements made in the continental boundary layer at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Research Flight Facility located in the Mojave Desert. Two flights consisting of several horizontal straight flux run legs up to ten kilometers in length and between 330 and 930 m above ground level (m a.g.l.) are compared to measurement from a surface tower. Surface measured λE ranged from −53 W m−2 to 41 W m−2, and the application of a Butterworth High Pass Filter (HPF) to the datasets improved agreement to within ± 12 W m−2 for 86 % of flux runs, by removing improperly sampled low frequency flux contributions. This result, along with power and co-spectral comparisons and consideration of the differing spatial scales indicates the system is able to resolve vertical fluxes for the measurement conditions encountered. Challenges remain, and the outcome of these measurements will be used to inform future sampling strategies and further system development.

Description: This paper evaluates the performance of various linear ozone photochemistry parametrizations using the stratosphere-troposphere data assimilation system of the Met Office. A set of experiments were run for the period 23 September 2003 to 5 November 2003 using the Cariolle (v1.0 and v2.1), LINOZ and Chem2D-OPP (v0.1 and v2.1) parametrizations. All operational meteorological observations were assimilated, together with ozone retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). Experiments were validated against independent data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and ozonesondes. It is shown that the LINOZ scheme is unsuitable for use above 10 hPa, but below this level it works as well as the other schemes. The Cariolle v1.0 scheme shows excessive sensitivity in the term related to overlying column ozone, and this results in erroneous ozone production in the ozone hole. The other three schemes (Cariolle v2.1 and Chem2D-OPP v0.1 and v2.1) all perform well through most of the atmosphere. Exceptions were the troposphere, where modelling and observing ozone remains a substantial challenge, and the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, where the main problems come from biases in the schemes' climatology coefficients. Cariolle v2.1 analyses showed biases of up to 20% against HALOE at levels above 1 hPa. These biases could be partially corrected by substituting the Fortuin and Kelder (1998) ozone climatology into the scheme. Chem2D-OPP v2.1 analyses showed biases up to 20% and unrealistic ozone patterns in the southern hemisphere upper stratosphere, likely due to discrepancies between analysed temperatures and the temperature climatology supplied with the scheme. Future developments should include a better treatment of the troposphere, and a parametrization of the diurnal cycle of ozone above 0.5 hPa.

Description: This paper examines 11 sets of ozone analyses from 7 different data assimilation systems. Two are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems based on general circulation models (GCMs); the other five use chemistry transport models (CTMs). These systems contain either linearised or detailed ozone chemistry, or no chemistry at all. In most analyses, MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) ozone data are assimilated. Two examples assimilate SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography) observations. The analyses are compared to independent ozone observations covering the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the period July to November 2003. Through most of the stratosphere (50 hPa to 1 hPa), biases are usually within ±10% and standard deviations less than 10% compared to ozonesondes and HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment). Biases and standard deviations are larger in the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere, in the troposphere, the mesosphere, and the Antarctic ozone hole region. In these regions, some analyses do substantially better than others, and this is mostly due to differences in the models. At the tropical tropopause, many analyses show positive biases and excessive structure in the ozone fields, likely due to known deficiencies in assimilated tropical wind fields and a degradation in MIPAS data at these levels. In the southern hemisphere ozone hole, only the analyses which correctly model heterogeneous ozone depletion are able to reproduce the near-complete ozone destruction over the pole. In the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere (above 5 hPa), some ozone photochemistry schemes caused large but easily remedied biases. The diurnal cycle of ozone in the mesosphere is not captured, except by the one system that includes a detailed treatment of mesospheric chemistry. In general, similarly good results are obtained no matter what the assimilation method (Kalman filter, three or four dimensional variational methods, direct inversion), or system (CTM or NWP system) and this in part reflects the generally good quality of the MIPAS ozone observations. Analyses based on SCIAMACHY total column are almost as good as the MIPAS analyses; analyses based on SCIAMACHY limb profiles are worse in some areas, due to problems in the SCIAMACHY retrievals. Using the analyses as a transfer standard, and treating MIPAS observations as point retrievals, it is seen that MIPAS is ~5% higher than HALOE in the mid and upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above 30 hPa), and of order 10% higher than ozonesonde and HALOE in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa to 30 hPa).