ALBERT

Description: Here we present results from a long-term model simulation of the 3-D coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO II for a North Sea and Baltic Sea set-up. The model allows both multi-decadal hindcast simulation of the marine system and specific process studies under controlled environmental conditions. Model results have been analysed with respect to long-term multi-decadal variability in both physical and biological parameters with the help of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis of a 61-year (1948–2008) hindcast reveals a quasi-decadal variation in salinity, temperature and current fields in the North Sea in addition to singular events of major changes during restricted time frames. These changes in hydrodynamic variables were found to be associated with changes in ecosystem productivity that are temporally aligned with the timing of reported regime shifts in the areas. Our results clearly indicate that for analysing ecosystem productivity, spatially explicit methods are indispensable. Especially in the North Sea, a correlation analysis between atmospheric forcing and primary production (PP) reveals significant correlations between PP and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and wind forcing for the central part of the region, while the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and air temperature are correlated to long-term changes in PP in the southern North Sea frontal areas. Since correlations cannot serve to identify causal relationship, we performed scenario model runs perturbing the temporal variability in forcing condition to emphasize specifically the role of solar radiation, wind and eutrophication. The results revealed that, although all parameters are relevant for the magnitude of PP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the dominant impact on long-term variability and major shifts in ecosystem productivity was introduced by modulations of the wind fields.

Description: The Öresund (the Sound), which is a part of the Danish straits, is linking the marine North Sea and the brackish Baltic Sea. It is a transition zone where ecosystems are subjected to large gradients in terms of salinity, temperature, carbonate chemistry, and dissolved oxygen concentration. In addition to the highly variable environmental conditions, the area is responding to anthropogenic disturbances in, e.g., nutrient loading, temperature, and pH. We have reconstructed environmental changes in the Öresund during the last ca. 200 years, and especially dissolved oxygen concentration, salinity, organic matter content, and pollution levels, using benthic foraminifera and sediment geochemistry. Five zones with characteristic foraminiferal assemblages were identified, each reflecting the environmental conditions for the respective period. The largest changes occurred around 1950, when the foraminiferal assemblage shifted from a low diversity fauna dominated by the species Stainforthia fusiformis to higher diversity and abundance and dominance of the Elphidium species. Concurrently, the grain-size distribution shifted from clayey to sandier sediment. To explore the causes of the environmental changes, we used time series of reconstructed wind conditions coupled with large-scale climate variations as recorded by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index as well as the ECOSMO II model of currents in the Öresund area. The results indicate increased changes in the water circulation towards stronger currents in the area after the 1950s. The foraminiferal fauna responded quickly (

Description: Here we present results from a long-term model simulation of the 3d coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO II for a North and Baltic Sea setup. The model allows both multi-decadal hindcast simulation of the marine system and specific process studies under controlled environmental conditions. Model results have been analysed with respect to long-term multi decadal variability in both physical and biological parameters with the help of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis of a 61-year (1948–2008) long hind cast reveals a quasi-decadal variation on salinity, temperature and current fields in the North Sea in addition to singular events of major changes during restricted time frames. These changes in hydrodynamic variables where found to be associated to changes in ecosystem productivity that are temporally aligned with the timing of reported regime shifts in the areas. Our results clearly indicate that for analysing ecosystem productivity spatially explicit methods are indispensable. Especially in the North Sea a correlation analysis between atmospheric forcing and primary production (PP) reveals significant correlations for NAO and wind forcing for the central part of the region, while AMO and air temperature are correlated to long-term changes in the southern North Sea frontal areas. Since correlations cannot serve to identify causal relationship we performed scenario model runs with perturbing the temporal variability in forcing condition emphasizing specifically the role of solar radiation, wind and eutrophication. The results revealed that, although all parameters are relevant for the magnitude of PP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the dominant impact on long-term variability and major shifts in ecosystem productivity was introduced by modulations of the wind fields.

Description: Coupled physical–biological models usually resolve only parts of the trophic food chain; hence, they run the risk of neglecting relevant ecosystem processes. Additionally, this imposes a closure term problem at the respective “ends” of the trophic levels considered. In this study, we aim to understand how the implementation of higher trophic levels in a nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (NPZD) model affects the simulated response of the ecosystem using a consistent NPZD–fish modelling approach (ECOSMO E2E) in the combined North Sea–Baltic Sea system. Utilising this approach, we addressed the above-mentioned closure term problem in lower trophic ecosystem modelling at a very low computational cost; thus, we provide an efficient method that requires very little data to obtain spatially and temporally dynamic zooplankton mortality. On the basis of the ECOSMO II coupled ecosystem model we implemented one functional group that represented fish and one group that represented macrobenthos in the 3-D model formulation. Both groups were linked to the lower trophic levels and to each other via predator–prey relationships, which allowed for the investigation of both bottom-up processes and top-down mechanisms in the trophic chain of the North Sea–Baltic Sea ecosystem. Model results for a 10-year-long simulation period (1980–1989) were analysed and discussed with respect to the observed patterns. To understand the impact of the newly implemented functional groups for the simulated ecosystem response, we compared the performance of the ECOSMO E2E to that of a respective truncated NPZD model (ECOSMO II) applied to the same time period. Additionally, we performed scenario tests to analyse the new role of the zooplankton mortality closure term in the truncated NPZD and the fish mortality term in the end-to-end model, which summarises the pressure imposed on the system by fisheries and mortality imposed by apex predators. We found that the model-simulated macrobenthos and fish spatial and seasonal patterns agree well with current system understanding. Considering a dynamic fish component in the ecosystem model resulted in slightly improved model performance with respect to the representation of spatial and temporal variations in nutrients, changes in modelled plankton seasonality, and nutrient profiles. Model sensitivity scenarios showed that changes in the zooplankton mortality parameter are transferred up and down the trophic chain with little attenuation of the signal, whereas major changes in fish mortality and fish biomass cascade down the food chain.

Description: Coupled physical-biological models usually resolve only parts of the trophic food chain and hence, run the risk of neglecting relevant ecosystem processes. Additionally, this imposes a closure term problem at the respective “ends” of the considered trophic levels. Here we propose a consistent NPZD-Fish modelling approach (ECOSMO E2E) to address the above-mentioned problem in lower trophic ecosystem modelling, and to understand how the implementation of higher trophic levels in a NPZD model affects the simulated response of the combined North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystem. On the basis of the coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO II we implemented one functional group that represents fish and one group representing macrobenthos in the 3d model formulation. Both groups are linked to the lower trophic levels and to each other via predator-prey relationships. The model allows investigating bottom-up impacts on primary and secondary production and cumulative fish biomass dynamics, but also top-down mechanisms on the lower trophic level production. Model results for a ten-year long simulation period (1980–1989) were analysed and discussed with respect to the observed pattern. To address the relevance of the newly implemented trophic levels for the simulated model response, we compare the performance of the ECOSMO E2E to a respective truncated NPZD model (ECOSMO II), which simulated the same time period. Additionally, we performed scenario tests to analyse the new role of the zooplankton mortality closure term in the truncated NPZD and the fish mortality term in the end-to-end model, which summarizes pressure imposed on the system by fisheries and mortality imposed by apex predators. We found that the model-simulated macrobenthos and fish spatial and seasonal pattern agree well with current system understanding. Considering a dynamic fish component in the ecosystem model resulted in slightly improved model performance with respect to representation of spatial and temporal variations in nutrients, changes in modelled plankton seasonality and nutrient profiles. Model sensitivity scenarios showed that changes in the zooplankton mortality parameter are transferred up and down the trophic chain with little attenuation of the signal, while major changes in fish mortality and in fish biomass cascade down the food chain.

Description: The Öresund (the Sound), which is a part of the Danish straits, is linking the marine North Sea and the brackish Baltic Sea. It is a transition zone where ecosystems are subjected to large gradients in terms of salinity, temperature, carbonate chemistry, and dissolved oxygen concentration. In addition to the highly variable environmental conditions, the area is responding to anthropogenic disturbances in e.g. nutrient loading, temperature, and pH. We have reconstructed environmental changes in the Öresund during the last c. 200 years, and especially dissolved oxygen concentration, salinity, organic matter content, and pollution levels, using benthic foraminifera and sediment geochemistry. Five zones with characteristic foraminiferal assemblages were identified, each reflecting the environmental conditions for respective period. The largest changes occurred ~ 1950, when the foraminiferal assemblage shifted from a low diversity fauna, dominated by the species Stainforthia fusiformis to higher diversity and abundance, and dominance of the Elphidium group. Concurrently, the grain-size distribution shifted from clayey – to more sandy sediment. To explore the causes for the environmental changes, we used time-series of reconstructed wind conditions coupled with large-scale climate variations as recorded by the NAO index, as well as the ECOSMO II model of currents in the Öresund area. The results indicate increased changes in the water circulation towards stronger currents in the area since the 1950's. The foraminiferal fauna responded quickly (

Description: This study highlights the importance of tides in controlling the spatial and temporal distributions of phytoplankton and other factors related to growth, such as nutrients and light availability. To quantify the responses of net primary production (NPP) to tidal forcing, we conducted scenario model simulations considering M2 and S2 tidal constituents using the physical-biogeochemical coupled model ECOSMO. The results were analysed with respect to a reference simulation without tidal forcing, with particular focus on the spatial scale of the tidally induced changes. Tidal forcing regulates the mixing-stratification processes in shelf seas such as the North Sea and hence also influences ecosystem dynamics. In principle, the results suggest three different response types with respect to primary production: (i) in southern shallow areas with strong tidal energy dissipation, tidal mixing dilutes phytoplankton concentrations in the upper water layers and thereby decreases NPP. Additionally, tides increase turbidity in near-coastal shallow areas, which has the potential to further hamper NPP. (ii) In the frontal region of the southern North Sea, which is a transition zone between stratified and mixed areas, tidal mixing infuses nutrients into the surface mixed layer and resolves summer nutrient depletion, thus sustaining the NPP during the summer season after spring bloom nutrient depletion. (iii) In the northern North Sea, the NPP response to tidal forcing is limited. Additionally, our simulations indicate that spring bloom phenology is impacted by tidal forcing, leading to a later onset of the spring bloom in large parts of the North Sea and to generally higher spring bloom peak phytoplankton biomasses. By testing the related changes in stratification, light conditions and grazing pressure, we found that all three factors potentially contribute to the change in spring bloom phenology with clear local differences. Finally, we also analysed the impact of the spring-neap tidal cycle on NPP. The annual mean impact of spring-neap tidal forcing on NPP is limited. However, locally, we found substantial differences in NPP either in-phase or anti-phase with the spring-neap tidal cycle. These differences could be attributed to locally different dominant factors such as light or nutrient availability during spring tides. In general, we conclude that in shallow shelf seas such as the North Sea, intensified vertical mixing induced by tidal forcing could either promote NPP by counteracting nutrient depletion or hinder NPP by deteriorating the light environment because of the resuspension and mixing of suspended matter into the euphotic zone.

Description: This study highlights the importance of tides in controlling the spatial and temporal distributions of phytoplankton and other factors related to growth, such as nutrients and light availability. To quantify the responses of net primary production (NPP) to tidal forcing, we conducted scenario model simulations considering M2 and S2 tidal constituents using the physical–biogeochemical coupled model ECOSMO (ECOSystem MOdel). The results were analyzed with respect to a reference simulation without tidal forcing, with particular focus on the spatial scale of the tidally induced changes. Tidal forcing regulates the mixing–stratification processes in shelf seas such as the North Sea and hence also influences ecosystem dynamics. In principle, the results suggest three different response types with respect to primary production: (i) in southern shallow areas with strong tidal energy dissipation, tidal mixing dilutes phytoplankton concentrations in the upper water layers and thereby decreases NPP. Additionally, tides increase turbidity in near-coastal shallow areas, which has the potential to further hamper NPP. (ii) In the frontal region of the southern North Sea, which is a transition zone between stratified and mixed areas, tidal mixing infuses nutrients into the surface mixed layer and resolves summer nutrient depletion, thus sustaining the NPP during the summer season after spring bloom nutrient depletion. (iii) In the northern North Sea, the NPP response to tidal forcing is limited. Additionally, our simulations indicate that spring bloom phenology is impacted by tidal forcing, leading to a later onset of the spring bloom in large parts of the North Sea and to generally higher spring bloom peak phytoplankton biomasses. By testing the related changes in stratification, light conditions and grazing pressure, we found that all three factors potentially contribute to the change in spring bloom phenology with clear local differences. Finally, we also analyzed the impact of the spring–neap tidal cycle on NPP. The annual mean impact of spring–neap tidal forcing on NPP is limited. However, locally, we found substantial differences in NPP either in phase or anti-phase with the spring–neap tidal cycle. These differences could be attributed to locally different dominant factors such as light or nutrient availability during spring tides. In general, we conclude that in shallow shelf seas such as the North Sea, intensified vertical mixing induced by tidal forcing could either promote NPP by counteracting nutrient depletion or hinder NPP by deteriorating the light environment because of the resuspension and mixing of suspended matter into the euphotic zone.

Description: The study addresses the nitrogen cycling in Elbe estuary. Observations of salinity, nutrients and oxygen from moored stations, ship casts and helicopter surveys are presented. Observations are complemented by simulations obtained from a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D unstructured model, applied for the first time to the estuarine environment. Model simulations reproduce the temporal variability of nutrients and oxygen along the estuarine salinity gradient. Both, observations and model results, demonstrate mostly conservative mixing of nitrate and non-conservative behavior of ammonium. Model hind-casts of the years 2012 and 2013 provide a detailed reconstruction of nitrogen recycling with ammonium appearing as the key species of the remineralisation process. Estuarine turnover processes are fueled by inputs of diatoms and organic nitrogen at the tidal weir with intense primary production manifest in the shallow river section downstream of the weir. The harbor area is the hot spot of heterotrophic decay associated with growth of meso-zooplankton, sedimentation of degradable material, remineralisation, oxygen depletion, denitrification and ammonium production. In the harbor, biochemistry shows strong vertical gradients while hydrodynamics demonstrate connectivity between the main channel and the harbor. At the estuary bed nitrogen is deposited during spring and early summer. Resuspension leads to nearly closed budget by the end of the year. During the Elbe flood in June 2013, estuarine biogeochemistry is significantly disturbed with the harbor being deactivated as hot spot of heterotrophic decay. Plankton and organic matter are flushed towards the outer estuary which in consequence sees high abundance of grazers, oxygen depletion and elevated release of ammonium.