ALBERT

Description: The history of deep water formation and abyssal flow is poorly known but important to establish in order to develop a better understanding of changes in oceanic mass, heat, salt, and nutrient transport. North Atlantic high-latitude regions currently are the dominant deep water producers, but paleogeographic constraints, proxy interpretations, and physical models have suggested other modes for the past, such as those characterized by high-latitude Pacific sources, subtropical sources, or widespread, nonlocalized sources. Here we present new North Pacific Late Cretaceous–Paleogene Nd isotope data from fossil fish debris and detrital silicates, combined with results of coupled climate model simulations to test these hypothesized circulation modes. The data and model simulations support a circulation mode characterized by high-latitude, bipolar Pacific convection. Deep convection in the North Pacific, and likely the South Pacific, was most intense during the relatively “cool” portion of the Late Cretaceous–Paleocene and waned prior to the peak global warmth of the Early Eocene (ca. 52 Ma).

Description: Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (

Description: Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean–atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean–atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example, greater carbon dioxide release from land soils. Analysis of synthetic sediment cores from the simulations provides guidelines for the interpretation of real sediment cores spanning the warming events. With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, timescales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep-time, global warming events.

Description: A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P − E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP∕dT) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Description: Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth System over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions, for example the Triassic-Jurassic and End-Permian extinctions, 201 and 252 million years ago. In many cases evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane, formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment, or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth System models should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) model, a simplified but well-tested Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation of input type, size, time scale and ocean-atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, time scales and ocean-atmosphere partitions to probe model behaviour. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter time scales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example, greater carbon dioxide release from land soils. Analysis of synthetic sediment cores from the simulations provides guidelines for the interpretation of real sediment cores spanning the warming events. With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, time scales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep time, global warming events.

Description: Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( 〉  800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene ( ∼  50  Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 ×  CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

Description: While the early Eocene has been considered in many modelling studies, detailed simulations of the middle and late Eocene climate are currently scarce. To understand Antarctic glaciation at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (~ 34 Ma) as well as middle Eocene warmth, it is vital to have an adequate reconstruction of the middle-to-late Eocene climate. Here, we present a set of high resolution coupled climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1. Two middle-to-late Eocene cases are considered with new detailed 38 Ma geographical boundary conditions with a different radiative forcing. With 4 × pre-industrial concentrations of CO2 (i.e. 1120 ppm) and CH4 (~ 2700 ppb), the equilibrium sea surface temperatures correspond well to available late middle Eocene (42–38 Ma) proxies. Being generally cooler, the simulated climate with 2 × pre-industrial values is a good analog for that of the late Eocene (38–34 Ma). Deep water formation occurs in the South Pacific Ocean, while the North Atlantic is strongly stratified and virtually stagnant. A shallow and weak circumpolar current is present in the Southern Ocean with only minor effects on southward oceanic heat transport within wind-driven gyres. Terrestrial temperature proxies, although limited in coverage, also indicate that the results presented here are realistic. The reconstructed 38 Ma climate has a reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient and a more symmetric meridional heat distribution compared to the pre-industrial reference. Climate sensitivity is similar (~ 0.7 °C/Wm2) to that of the present-day climate (~ 0.8 °C/Wm2; 3 °C per CO2 doubling), with significant polar amplification despite very limited sea ice and snow cover. High latitudes are mainly kept warm by albedo and cloud feedbacks in combination with global changes in geography and the absence of polar ice sheets. The integrated effect of geography, vegetation and ice accounts for a 6–7 °C offset between pre-industrial and 38 Ma Eocene boundary conditions. These 38 Ma simulations effectively show that a realistic middle-to-late Eocene climate can be reconstructed without the need for greenhouse gas concentrations much higher than proxy estimates. The general circulation and radiative budget allow for mild high-latitude regions and little to no snow and ice cover, without making equatorial regions extremely warm.

Description: The early Eocene (56 to 48 million years ago) is inferred to have been the most recent time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Global mean temperatures were also substantially warmer than present day. As such, study of early Eocene climate provides insight into how a super-warm Earth system behaves and offers an opportunity to evaluate climate models under conditions of high greenhouse gas forcing. The Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a systematic model-model and model-data intercomparison of three early Paleogne time slices: latest Paleocene, Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum and early Eocene climatic optimum. A previous article outlined the model experimental design for climate model simulations. In this article, we outline the methodologies to be used for the compilation and analysis of climate proxy data, primarily proxies for temperature and CO2. This paper establishes the protocols for a concerted and coordinated effort to compile the climate proxy records across a wide geographic range. The resulting climate atlas will be used to constrain and evaluate climate models for the three selected time intervals, and provide insights into the mechanisms that control these warm climate states. We provide version 0.1 of this database, in anticipation that this will be expanded in subsequent publications.

Description: The early Eocene (56 to 48 million years ago) is inferred to have been the most recent time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Global mean temperatures were also substantially warmer than those of the present day. As such, the study of early Eocene climate provides insight into how a super-warm Earth system behaves and offers an opportunity to evaluate climate models under conditions of high greenhouse gas forcing. The Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a systematic model–model and model–data intercomparison of three early Paleogene time slices: latest Paleocene, Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO). A previous article outlined the model experimental design for climate model simulations. In this article, we outline the methodologies to be used for the compilation and analysis of climate proxy data, primarily proxies for temperature and CO2. This paper establishes the protocols for a concerted and coordinated effort to compile the climate proxy records across a wide geographic range. The resulting climate “atlas” will be used to constrain and evaluate climate models for the three selected time intervals and provide insights into the mechanisms that control these warm climate states. We provide version 0.1 of this database, in anticipation that this will be expanded in subsequent publications.

Description: The early and late Eocene have both been the subject of many modelling studies, but few have focused on the middle Eocene. The latter still holds many challenges for climate modellers but is also key to understanding the events leading towards the conditions needed for Antarctic glaciation at the Eocene–Oligocene transition. Here, we present the results of CMIP5-like coupled climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1. Using a new detailed 38 Ma geography reconstruction and higher model resolution compared to most previous modelling studies and sufficiently long equilibration times, these simulations will help to further understand the middle to late Eocene climate. At realistic levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the model is able to show overall good agreement with proxy records and capture the important aspects of a warm greenhouse climate during the Eocene. With a quadrupling of pre-industrial concentrations of both CO2 and CH4 (i.e. 1120 ppm and ∼2700 ppb, respectively, or 4 × PIC; pre-industrial carbon), sea surface temperatures correspond well to the available late middle Eocene (42–38 Ma; ∼ Bartonian) proxies. Being generally cooler, the simulated climate under 2 × PIC forcing is a good analogue for that of the late Eocene (38–34 Ma; ∼ Priabonian). Terrestrial temperature proxies, although their geographical coverage is sparse, also indicate that the results presented here are in agreement with the available information. Our simulated middle to late Eocene climate has a reduced Equator-to-pole temperature gradient and a more symmetric meridional heat distribution compared to the pre-industrial reference. The collective effects of geography, vegetation, and ice account for a global average 5–7 ∘C difference between pre-industrial and 38 Ma Eocene boundary conditions, with important contributions from cloud and water vapour feedbacks. This helps to explain Eocene warmth in general, without the need for greenhouse gas levels much higher than indicated by proxy estimates (i.e. ∼500–1200 ppm CO2) or low-latitude regions becoming unreasonably warm. High-latitude warmth supports the idea of mostly ice-free polar regions, even at 2 × PIC, with Antarctica experiencing particularly warm summers. An overall wet climate is seen in the simulated Eocene climate, which has a strongly monsoonal character. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is reduced (0.62 ∘C W−1 m2; 3.21 ∘C warming between 38 Ma 2 × PIC and 4 × PIC) compared to that of the present-day climate (0.80 ∘C W−1 m2; 3.17 ∘C per CO2 doubling). While the actual warming is similar, we see mainly a higher radiative forcing from the second PIC doubling. A more detailed analysis of energy fluxes shows that the regional radiative balance is mainly responsible for sustaining a low meridional temperature gradient in the Eocene climate, as well as the polar amplification seen towards even warmer conditions. These model results may be useful to reconsider the drivers of Eocene warmth and the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) but can also be a base for more detailed comparisons to future proxy estimates.