ALBERT

Description: In this study the latest version of the MiKlip decadal hindcast system is analyzed, and the effect of an increased horizontal and vertical resolution on the prediction skill of the extratropical winter circulation is assessed. Four different metrics – the storm track, blocking, cyclone and windstorm frequencies – are analyzed in the North Atlantic and European region. The model bias and the deterministic decadal hindcast skill are evaluated in ensembles of five members in a lower-resolution version (LR, atm: T63L47, ocean: 1.5∘ L40) and a higher-resolution version (HR, atm: T127L95, ocean: 0.4∘ L40) of the MiKlip system based on the Max Planck Institute Earth System model (MPI-ESM). The skill is assessed for the lead winters 2–5 in terms of the anomaly correlation of the quantities' winter averages using initializations between 1978 and 2012. The deterministic predictions are considered skillful if the anomaly correlation is positive and statistically significant. While the LR version shows common shortcomings of lower-resolution climate models, e.g., a storm track that is too zonal and southward displaced as well as a negative bias of blocking frequencies over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the HR version counteracts these biases. Cyclones, i.e., their frequencies and characteristics like strength and lifetime, are particularly better represented in HR. As a result, a chain of significantly improved decadal prediction skill between all four metrics is found with the increase in the spatial resolution. While the skill of the storm track is significantly improved primarily over the main source region of synoptic activity – the North Atlantic Current – the other extratropical quantities experience a significant improvement primarily downstream thereof, i.e., in regions where the synoptic systems typically intensify. Thus, the skill of the cyclone frequencies is significantly improved over the central North Atlantic and northern Europe, the skill of the blocking frequencies is significantly improved over the Mediterranean, Scandinavia and eastern Europe, and the skill of the windstorms is significantly improved over Newfoundland and central Europe. Not only is the skill improved with the increase in resolution, but the HR system itself also exhibits significant skill over large areas of the North Atlantic and European sector for all four circulation metrics. These results are particularly promising regarding the high socioeconomic impact of European winter windstorms and blocking situations.

Description: We investigate changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) in a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, we compare a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, covering the simulation period from 2005 to 2300, to a historical simulation, covering the simulation period from 1850 to 2005. In RCP 8.5, the OHT declines by 30–50 % in comparison to the historical simulation in the North Atlantic by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For the OHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5° and latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the changes in the OHT seasonal cycle predominantly result from changes in the wind-driven surface circulation, which projects onto the overturning component of the OHT in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads in turn to latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the overturning component. In comparison to the historical simulation, in the subpolar North Atlantic, in RCP 8.5 we find a reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a strongly weakened seasonal cycle with a weakened amplitude by the end of the 23rd century.

Description: In polar ice sheets, the average grain size varies with depth. Ice grain size increases due to several factors including ice temperature and impurity content, which in turn varies with climate. The effect of impurities on grain growth is thought to be crucial but has never been observed experimentally. Using a methodology recently developed at Royal Holloway University of London, in situ chemical analysis of frozen ice at sub-ppm concentrations with unprecedented spatial resolution (~150 μm) is achievable using ultraviolet laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (UV-LA-ICPMS) featuring a two-volume cryo-LA-cell. Following surface cleaning with a custom-built vice equipped with a ceramic blade, NGRIP ice slabs (~86 ka before AD 2000) have been analysed using a series of one-dimensional profiles and two-dimensional maps of laser spots at a resolution of 200–300 μm. Results demonstrate that cation impurities are not uniformly distributed in ice layers and show significant variations in concentration on a sub-millimetre scale. Furthermore, a different pattern of elemental distribution between clear ice and layers enriched in impurities (cloudy bands) has been identified: while concentration differences for cloudy bands are not resolvable between boundaries and inner grain domains, within clear ice, grain boundaries and junctions are significantly (up to 100 times) impurity-enriched relative to corresponding grain interiors.

Description: We investigate the effect of a projected reduction in the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) on changes in its seasonal cycle. We analyze a climate projection experiment with the Max-Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the OHT declines in MPI-ESM in the North Atlantic by 30–50 % by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For the total OHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5 degrees and latitude dependent temporal shifts of 1 to 6 months that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the shift in the OHT seasonal cycle predominantly results from changes in the wind-driven surface circulation which projects onto the overturning component of the OHT in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads to latitude dependent shifts of 1 to 6 months in the overturning component. In the subpolar North Atlantic, we find that the reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation in RCP8.5 and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a strongly weakened seasonal cycle with a weakened seasonal amplitude by the end of the 23rd century and thus changes the OHT seasonal cycle in the SPG.

Description: Much of our knowledge of past ocean temperatures comes from the foraminifera Mg / Ca palaeothermometer. Several nonthermal controls on foraminifera Mg incorporation have been identified, of which vital effects, salinity, and secular variation in seawater Mg / Ca are the most commonly considered. Ocean carbonate chemistry is also known to influence Mg / Ca, yet this is rarely examined as a source of uncertainty, either because (1) precise pH and [CO32−] reconstructions are sparse or (2) it is not clear from existing culture studies how a correction should be applied. We present new culture data of the relationship between carbonate chemistry and Mg / Ca for the surface-dwelling planktic species Globigerinoides ruber and compare our results to data compiled from existing studies. We find a coherent relationship between Mg / Ca and the carbonate system and argue that pH rather than [CO32−] is likely to be the dominant control. Applying these new calibrations to data sets for the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) enables us to produce a more accurate picture of surface hydrology change for the former and a reassessment of the amount of subtropical precursor cooling for the latter. We show that pH-adjusted Mg / Ca and δ18O data sets for the PETM are within error of no salinity change and that the amount of precursor cooling over the EOT has been previously underestimated by  ∼ 2 °C based on Mg / Ca. Finally, we present new laser-ablation data of EOT-age Turborotalia ampliapertura from St. Stephens Quarry (Alabama), for which a solution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS) Mg / Ca record is available (Wade et al., 2012). We show that the two data sets are in excellent agreement, demonstrating that fossil solution and laser-ablation data may be directly comparable. Together with an advancing understanding of the effect of Mg / Casw, the coherent picture of the relationship between Mg / Ca and pH that we outline here represents a step towards producing accurate and quantitative palaeotemperatures using this proxy.

Description: Several abrupt shifts from periods of extreme cold (Greenland stadials, GS) to relatively warmer conditions (Greenland interstadials, GI) called Dansgaard–Oeschger events are recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Using cryo-cell UV-laser-ablation inductively coupled-plasma mass spectrometry (UV-LA-ICPMS), we analysed a 2.85 m NGRIP ice core section (2691.50–2688.65 m depth, age interval 84.86–85.09 ka b2k, thus covering  ∼  230 years) across the transitions of GI-21.2, a short-lived interstadial prior to interstadial GI-21.1. GI-21.2 is a  ∼  100-year long period with δ18O values 3–4 ‰ higher than the following  ∼  200 years of stadial conditions (GS-21.2), which precede the major GI-21.1 warming. We report concentrations of major elements indicative of dust and/or sea salt (Na, Fe, Al, Ca, Mg) at a spatial resolution of  ∼  200 µm, while maintaining detection limits in the low-ppb range, thereby achieving sub-annual time resolution even in deep NGRIP ice. We present an improved external calibration and quantification procedure using a set of five ice standards made from aqueous (international) standard solutions. Our results show that element concentrations decrease drastically (more than 10-fold) at the warming onset of GI-21.2 at the scale of a single year, followed by relatively low concentrations characterizing the interstadial part before gradually reaching again typical stadial values.

Description: Near-term climate predictions such as decadal climate forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. For near-term probabilistic predictions to be useful, systematic errors of the forecasting systems have to be corrected. While methods for the calibration of probabilistic forecasts are readily available, these have to be adapted to the specifics of decadal climate forecasts including the long time horizon of decadal climate forecasts, lead time dependent systematic errors (drift), and the errors in the representation of long-term changes and variability. These features are compounded by small ensemble sizes to describe forecast uncertainty and a relatively short period for which typically pairs of re-forecasts and observations are available to estimate calibration parameters. We introduce the Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration Strategy (DeFoReSt), a parametric approach to recalibrate decadal ensemble forecasts that takes the above specifics into account. DeFoReSt optimizes forecast quality as measured by the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Using a toy model to generate synthetic forecast observation pairs, we demonstrate the positive effect on forecast quality in situations with pronounced and limited predictability. Finally, we apply DeFoReSt to decadal surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip Prototype system and find consistent and sometimes considerable improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead time dependent systematic errors.

Description: The current state of development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe are analysed. The Miklip regional system consists of two 10-member hindcast ensembles computed with the global coupled model MPI-ESM-LR downscaled for the European region with COSMO-CLM to a horizontal resolution of 0.22° (~ 25 km). Prediction skills are computed for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed using E-OBS and an ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulation as verification datasets. Focus is given to the eight European PRUDENCE regions and to lead 20 years 1–5 after initialization. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for all three variables is provided. For example, the initialized hindcasts outperform the uninitialized historical runs for some key regions in Europe and for some variables both in terms of accuracy and reliability. However, forecast skill is not detected in all cases, but it depends on the variable, the region, and the hindcast generation. A comparison of the downscaled hindcasts with the global MPI-ESM-LR runs reveals that the MiKlip prediction system may distinctly benefit from regionalization, in particular for 25 parts of Southern Europe and for Scandinavia. The forecast accuracy and the reliability of the MiKlip ensemble is systematically enhanced when the ensemble size is stepwise increased, and a number of 10 members is found to be suitable for decadal predictions. This result is valid for all variables and European regions in both the global and regional MiKlip ensemble. The predictive skill improves distinctly, particularly for temperature, when retaining the long-term trend in the time series. The present results are encouraging towards the development of a regional decadal prediction system.

Description: The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.