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  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Statistical analysis in climate research (2003)
    Cambridge : Cambridge Univ. Press
    Details Availability
    Call number: 12/M 07.0202 ; PIK N 455-08-0225 ; AWI S2-10-0078
    Description / Table of Contents: Contents: Part I. Fundamentals: 2. Probability theory; 3. Distributions of climate variables; 4. Concepts in statistical inference; 5. Estimation; Part II. Confirmation and Analysis: 6. The statistical test of a hypothesis; 7. Analysis of atmospheric circulation problems; Part III. Fitting Statistical Models: 8. Regression; 9. Analysis of variance; Part IV. Time Series: 10. Time series and stochastic processes; 11. Parameters of univariate and bivariate time series; 12. Estimating covariance functions and spectra; Part V. Eigen Techniques: 13. Empirical orthogonal functions; 14. Canonical correlation analysis; 15. POP analysis; 16. Complex eigentechniques; Part VI. Other Topics: 17. Specific statistical concepts in climate research; 18. Forecast quality evaluation
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: X, 484 S. , Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. , 28 cm
    Edition: Reprinted
    ISBN: 0521450713 , 0-521-01230-9
    Location: Reading room
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Location: Reading room
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
    Branch Library: PIK Library
    Branch Library: AWI Library
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  • 2
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Statistical analysis in climate research (1999)
    Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge University Press
    Details Availability
    Call number: AWI S2-99-0241 ; PIK N 455-99-0445 ; PIK N 455-02-0233
    Description / Table of Contents: Contents: 1. Introduction. - I. FUNDAMENTALS. - 2. Probability theory. - 3. Distributions of climate variables. - 4. Concepts in statistical inference. - 5. Estimation. - II. CONFIRMATION AND ANALYSIS. - 6. The statistical test of a hypothesis. - 7. Analysis of atmospheric circulation problems. - III. FITTING STATISTICAL MODELS. - 8. Regression. - 9. Analysis of variance. - IV. TIME SERIES. - 10. Time series and stochastic processes. - 11. Parameters of univariate and bivariate time series. - 12. Estimating covariance functions and spectra. - V. EIGEN TECHNIQUES. - 13. Empirical orthogonal functions. - 14. Canonical correlation analysis. - 15. POP analysis. - 16. Complex eigentechniques. - VI. OTHER TOPICS. - 17. Specific statistical concepts in climate research. - 18. Forecast quality evaluation. - VII. APPENDICES. - References
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: X, 484 S. : Ill., graph. Darst., Kt.
    Edition: 1. publ.
    ISBN: 0521450713
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Branch Library: AWI Library
    Branch Library: PIK Library
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends (2007)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 448 (2007), S. 461-465 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Human influence on climate has been detected in surface air temperature, sea level pressure, free atmospheric temperature, tropopause height and ocean heat content. Human-induced changes have not, however, previously been detected in precipitation at the global scale, partly because changes ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature06025
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure (2003)
    [s.l.] : Macmillian Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 422 (2003), S. 292-294 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols—the main human influences on climate—have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01487
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Uncertainty in climate change (2000)
    [s.l.] : Macmillan Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 407 (2000), S. 571-572 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Governments around the world are investing heavily in coupled-climate models to project future climate change. Such models have interacting atmosphere, ocean, land and sea-ice components, and serve as laboratories for studying the effects of natural and human influences on the climate system. ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/35036659
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change The 20-year forecast (2002)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 416 (2002), S. 690-691 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Earth's climate has changed during the past century. The global mean temperature has risen by 0.6 ± 0.2 K; there have been reductions in snow cover, glacier mass and sea-ice extent; and sea level and the heat held by the oceans have increased. This observational evidence, and sophisticated ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/416690a
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  • 7
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    Revising Return Periods for Record Events in a Climate Event Attribution Context (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-01-08
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 8
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    Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-10-10
    Description: Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012. A question of interest across many disciplines concerns the extent to which such extreme events can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. First, a detection and attribution analysis is performed for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period. The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE. Although focus is placed on the 2012 event, the results are generalized to extreme events of other magnitudes including both past and potential future extremes. Several ensembles of model responses are used, including two single-model large ensembles. Using several different metrics to define the events in question, it is shown that an extreme SIE minimum of the magnitude seen in 2012 is consistent with a scenario including anthropogenic influence, and is extremely unlikely in a scenario excluding anthropogenic influence. Hence, the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum provides a counterexample to the often-quoted idea that individual extreme events cannot be attributed to human influence.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 9
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    The Influence of Atmospheric Blocking on Extreme Winter Minimum Temperatures in North America (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-06-08
    Description: Regional climate models (RCMs) are the primary source of high-resolution climate projections, and it is of crucial importance to evaluate their ability to simulate extreme events under current climate conditions. Many extreme events are influenced by circulation features that occur outside, or on the edges of, RCM domains. Thus, it is of interest to know whether such dynamically controlled aspects of extremes are well represented by RCMs. This study assesses the relationship between upstream blocking and cold temperature extremes over North America in observations, reanalysis products (ERA-Interim and NARR), and RCMs (CanRCM4, CRCM5, HIRHAM5, and RCA4). Generalized extreme value distributions were fitted to winter minimum temperature (TNn) incorporating blocking frequency (BF) as a covariate, which is shown to have a significant influence on TNn. The magnitude of blocking influence in the RCMs is consistent with observations, but the spatial extent varies. CRCM5 and HIRHAM5 reproduce the pattern of influence best compared to observations. CanRCM4 and RCA4 capture the influence of blocking in British Columbia and the northeastern United States, but the extension of influence that is seen in observations and reanalysis into the southern United States is not evident. The difference in the 20-yr return value (20RV) of TNn between high and low BF in the Pacific Ocean indicates that blocking is associated with a decrease of up to 15°C in the 20RV over the majority of the United States and in western Canada. In northern North America the difference in the 20RV is positive as blocking is associated with warmer extreme cold temperatures. The 20RVs are generally simulated well by the RCMs.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 10
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    Attribution of the Observed Spring Snowpack Decline in British Columbia to Anthropogenic Climate Change (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-05-08
    Description: A detection and attribution analysis on the multidecadal trend in snow water equivalent (SWE) has been conducted in four river basins located in British Columbia (BC). Monthly output from a suite of 10 general circulation models (GCMs) that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used, including 40 climate simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcing combined (ALL), 40 simulations with natural forcing alone (NAT), and approximately 4200 yr of preindustrial control simulations (CTL). This output was downscaled to ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model (VIC). Observed (manual snow survey) and VIC-reconstructed SWE, which exhibit declines across BC, are projected onto the multimodel ensemble means of the VIC-simulated SWE based on the responses to different forcings using an optimal fingerprinting approach. Results of the detection and attribution analysis shows that these declines are attributable to the anthropogenic forcing, which is dominated by the effect of increases in greenhouse gas concentration, and that they are not caused by natural forcing due to volcanic activity and solar variability combined. Anthropogenic influence is detected in three of the four basins (Fraser, Columbia, and Campbell Rivers) based on the VIC-reconstructed SWE, and in all basins based on the manual snow survey records. The simulations underestimate the observed snowpack trends in the Columbia River basin, which has the highest mean elevation. Attribution is supported by the detection of human influence on the cold-season temperatures that drive the snowpack reductions. These results are robust to the use of different observed datasets and to the treatment of low-frequency variability effects.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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