ALBERT

Description: This study investigates the constraint provided by greenhouse gas measurements from space on surface fluxes. Imperfect knowledge of the light path through the atmosphere, arising from scattering by clouds and aerosols, can heavily bias column measurements retrieved from space. To minimize the impact of such biases, ratios of total column retrieved CH4 and CO2 (Xratio) have been used. We apply the ratio inversion method described in Pandey et al. (2015) to retrievals from the Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The ratio inversion method uses the measured Xratio as a weak constraint on CO2 fluxes. In contrast, the more common approach of inverting proxy CH4 retrievals (Frankenberg et al., 2005) prescribes atmospheric CO2 fields and optimizes only CH4 fluxes. The TM5-4DVAR inverse modeling system is used to simultaneously optimize the fluxes of CH4 and CO2 for 2009 and 2010. The results are compared to proxy inversions using model-derived-XCO2 mixing ratios (XCO2model) from CarbonTracker and MACC. The performance of the inverse models is evaluated using aircraft measurements from the HIPPO, CONTRAIL and AMAZONICA projects. Xratio and XCO2model are compared with TCCON retrievals to quantify the relative importance of errors in these components of the proxy XCH4 retrieval (XCH4proxy). We find that the retrieval errors in Xratio (mean = 0.61 %) are generally larger than the errors in XCO2model (mean = 0.24 % and 0.01 % for CarbonTracker and MACC, respectively). On the annual time scale, the CH4 fluxes from the different satellite inversions are generally in agreement with each other, suggesting that errors in XCO2model do not limit the overall accuracy of the CH4 flux estimates. On the seasonal time scale, however, larger differences are found due to uncertainties in XCO2model, particularly over Australia and in the tropics. The ratio method stays closer to the a priori CH4 flux in these regions, because it is capable of simultaneously adjusting the CO2 fluxes. Over Tropical South America, comparison to independent measurements shows that CO2 fields derived from the ratio method are less realistic than those used in the proxy method. However, the CH4 fluxes are more realistic, because the impact of unaccounted systematic uncertainties is more evenly distributed between CO2 and CH4. The ratio inversion estimates an enhanced CO2 release from Tropical South America during the dry season of 2010, which is in accordance with the findings of Gatti et al. (2014) and Vanderlaan et al. (2015). The performance of the ratio method is encouraging, because despite the added non-linearity due to the assimilation of Xratio and the significant increase in the degree of freedom by optimizing CO2 fluxes, still consistent results are obtained.

Description: The growth in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations over the past two decades has shown large variability on a timescale of many years. Prior to 1999 the globally averaged CH4 concentration was increasing at a rate of 6.0 ppb/yr, but during a stagnation period from 1999 to 2006 this growth rate slowed to 0.6 ppb/yr. Since 2007 the growth rate has again increased to 4.9 ppb/yr. These changes in growth rate are usually ascribed to variations in CH4 emissions. We have used a 3-D global chemical transport model, driven by meteorological reanalyses and variations in global mean hydroxyl (OH) concentrations derived from CH3CCl3 observations from two independent networks, to investigate these CH4 growth variations. The model shows that between 1999 and 2006, changes in the CH4 atmospheric loss contributed significantly to the suppression in global CH4 concentrations relative to the pre-1999 trend. The largest factor in this is relatively small variations in global mean OH on a timescale of a few years, with minor contributions of atmospheric transport of CH4 to its sink region and atmospheric temperature. Although changes in emissions may be important during the stagnation period, these results imply a smaller variation is required to explain the observed CH4 trends. The contribution of OH variations to the renewed CH4 growth after 2007 cannot be determined with data currently available.

Description: The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.

Description: We analyze satellite retrievals of carbon monoxide from the MOPITT (Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere) instrument over the Amazon Basin, focusing on the MOPITT Version 6 "multispectral" retrieval product (exploiting both thermal-infrared and near-infrared channels). Validation results based on in situ vertical profiles measured between 2010 and 2013 are presented for four sites in the Amazon Basin. Results indicate a significant negative bias in retrieved lower-tropospheric CO concentrations. The possible influence of smoke aerosol as a source of retrieval bias is investigated using collocated Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements at two sites but does not appear to be significant. Finally, we exploit the MOPITT record to analyze both the mean annual cycle and the interannual variability of CO over the Amazon Basin since 2002.

Description: We analyze satellite retrievals of carbon monoxide from the MOPITT instrument over the Amazon Basin, focusing on the MOPITT Version 6 "multispectral" retrieval product (exploiting both thermal-infrared and near-infrared channels). Validation results based on in-situ vertical profiles measured between 2010 and 2013 are presented for four sites in the Amazon Basin. Results indicate a significant negative bias in retrieved lower-tropospheric CO concentrations. The possible influence of smoke aerosol as a source of retrieval bias is investigated using collocated AERONET AOD measurements at two sites, but does not appear to be significant. Finally, we exploit the MOPITT record to analyze both the mean annual cycle and the interannual variability of CO over the Amazon Basin since 2002.