ALBERT

Notes: We examine whether the shape of the magnitude-frequency distribution for strike-slip faults is described by the Gutenburg-Richter relationship (log n=a - bM) or by the characteristic earthquake model, by analysing a data set of faults from California. Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, China and Turkey. For faults within regional seismic networks, curves of the form log n yr-1=a - bM, where n yr-1 is the number of events per year equal to magnitude M, are fit to the instrumental record of seismicity and geological data are used to estimate independently the size and recurrence rate of the largest expected earthquakes that would rupture the total length of the fault. Extrapolation of instrumentally derived curves to larger magnitudes agrees with geological estimates of the recurrence rate of the largest earthquakes for only four of the 22 faults if uncertainties in curve slope are considered, and significantly underestimates the geological recurrence rates in the remaining cases. Also, if we predict the seismicity of the faults as a function of fault length and slip rate, and the predicted seismicity is distributed in accord with the Gutenburg-Richter relationship, we find the predicted recurrence rate to be greater than the observed recurrence rates of smaller earthquakes along most faults. If individual fault zones satisfy the Gutenburg-Richter relationship over the long term, our observations imply that, during the recurrence interval of the largest expected earthquakes, the recurrence of lesser-sized events is not steady but, rather, strongly clustered in time. However, if the instrumental records provide an estimate of the long-term rate of small to moderate earthquakes along the faults, our observations imply that the faults generally exhibit a magnitude-frequency distribution consistent with the characteristic earthquake model. Aiso, we observe that the geometrical complexity of strike-slip faults is a decreasing function of cumulative strike-slip offset. The four faults we observe to be consistent with the Gutenburg-Richter relationship are among those characterized by the least amount of cumulative slip and greatest fault-trace complexity. We therefore suggest that the ratio of the recurrence rate of small to large earthquakes along a fault zone may decrease as slip accumulates and the fault becomes smoother.

Notes: A highly significant seismic quiescence with a standard deviate Z = 10.1. corresponding to a 99 per cent confidence level, lasted from 1987.7 up to the 1990 February 20 Izu-Oshima M 6.5 earthquake. The quiescent volume had dimensions of 30 km N-S and 10 km E-W and was centred below 14 km depth. Within the recently upgraded seismograph network of the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), this main shock was the only one with a magnitude M 〉 5.8 in the upper 30 km of the crust for which the precursory quiescence hypothesis could be tested. Within a radius of 50 km, and during the observation period (1983.5–1995.9), there were no other 1.5 yr or longer periods of quiescence that were rated Z 〉 6.5 in the declustered earthquake catalogue, except one that was associated with volcanic activity. The total space-time covered by alarms, including the volcanic one, was less than 1 per cent at the Z = 6.5 level. The rarity of highly significant episodes of quiescence, and the correlation in space and time suggest that a precursory seismic quiescence started 2.5 yr before the Izu-Oshima 1990 earthquake in its source volume and to the north of it, and that it can be recognized with an alarm level of Z = 6.0, generating no false alarms. During the 1.5 yr quiescence window, only 10 earthquakes occurred in the quiet volume, whereas 50 events were expected based on the rate seen at other times. In randomly selected volumes containing 50, 100 and 200 events, the anomaly scored Z = 6.1 to 10.1. On the basis of the data from May 1983 to 1995, there is no highly significant quiescence currently present in the Izu-Oshima area.