ISSN:
1750-3841
Source:
Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
Topics:
Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
,
Process Engineering, Biotechnology, Nutrition Technology
Notes:
Microbial counts records from 2 food plants, showing irregular fluctuating patterns and an apparent trend or periodicity were converted into a series of ratios, Yn= Nn/Nn-1 where Nn is the ntk count and Nn-1 its predecessor. The distribution of these ratios was described by the logLaplace and lognormal distribution functions, calculated by the method of moments and maximum likelihood estimation. These distributions were used to estimate the probability that a count will exceed its predecessor by given ratios. The estimates obtained with both distribution functions were in reasonable agreement with the actual values observed in fresh data, indicating that the probability of future events can be estimated from records with or without a trend or periodicity.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2621.2002.tb10276.x
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