ALBERT

Description: A new and distinctly interdecadal signal in the climate of the Pacific Ocean has been uncovered by examining the coupled behavior of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. This interdecadal Pacific signal (IPS) of ocean–atmosphere interaction exhibits a highly statistically significant interdecadal component yet contains little to no interannual (El Niño scale) variability common to other Pacific climate anomaly patterns. The IPS thus represents the only empirically derived, distinctly interdecadal signal of Pacific Ocean SST variability that likely also represents the true interdecadal behavior of the Pacific Ocean–atmosphere system. The residual variability of the Pacific’s leading SST pattern, after removal of the IPS, is highly correlated with El Niño anomalies. This indicates that by simply including an atmospheric component, the leading mode of Pacific SST variability has been decomposed into its interdecadal and interannual patterns. Although the interdecadal signal is unrelated to interannual El Niño variability, the interdecadal ocean–atmosphere variability still seems closely linked to tropical Pacific SSTs. Because prior abrupt changes in Pacific SSTs have been related to anomalies in a variety of physical and biotic parameters throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and because of the persistence of these changes over several decades, isolation of this interdecadal signal in the Pacific Ocean–atmosphere system has potentially important and widespread implications to climate forecasting and climate impact assessment.

Description: Numerous teleconnections have been identified based upon spatial variability in sea level pressure or lower-tropospheric geopotential height fields. These teleconnections, which are commonly strongest in winter when the mean meridional temperature gradient is large, typically are neither derived from nor linked to changes in the jet stream. Here, winter tropospheric jet stream cores over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are recovered from 6-hourly gridded data and interannual variability in winter jet core position, speed, and pressure are investigated in the context of NH teleconnections. Common methods for researching jet stream speed and position variability may yield unrepresentative results because jet core pressure variability is ignored (only one isobaric surface is evaluated) or pressure variability effects are smoothed (values are vertically averaged across several isobaric surfaces). In this analysis, data are extracted at the surface of maximum wind, thus controlling for jet core pressure variability and allowing for a more representative tracking of three-dimensional jet core variations. In the extratropics, the leading pattern of variability in jet core frequency is correlated with the Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) and appears as an oscillation about the spiral-shaped mean configuration of the winter jet stream. In contrast to previous research, the authors find no evidence of Pacific jet deceleration during positive AOI. The second leading mode of variability appears as a split (merged) winter-mean jet stream in the east Pacific together with a merged (split) winter-mean jet stream over North America, a pattern of change that correlates with the Pacific–North American pattern and is reflected in the amplitude of the long-wave ridge over western North America.

Description: Rainfall is a driving factor of climate in the tropics and needs to be properly represented within a climate model. This study customizes the precipitation processes over the tropical regions of eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). The convective schemes of Grell with closures Arakawa–Schubert (Grell–AS)/Fritch–Chappel (Grell–FC) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology–Emanuel (MIT–EMAN) were compared to determine the most realistic spatial distribution of rainfall and partitioning of convective/stratiform rainfall when compared to observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Both Grell–AS and Grell–FC underpredicted convective rainfall rates over land, while over the ocean Grell–FC (Grell–AS) over- (under-) estimates convective rainfall. MIT–EMAN provides the most realistic pardoning and spatial distribution of convective rainfall despite the tendency for overestimating total rainfall. MIT–EMAN was used to further customize the subgrid explicit moisture scheme (SUBEX). Sensitivity tests were performed on the gridbox relative humidity threshold for cloudiness (RHmin) and the autoconversion scale factor (Cacs). An RHmin value of 60% (RHmin-60) reduced the amount of total rainfall over five heterogeneous rainfall regions in eastern Africa, with most of the reduction coming from the convective rainfall. Then, Cacs sensitivity tests improved upon the total rainfall amounts and convective stratiform partitioning compared to RHmin-60. Based upon all sensitivity simulations performed, the combination of the MIT–EMAN convective scheme, RHmin-60, and halving the model default value (0.4) of Cacs provided the most realistic simulation in terms of spatial distribution, convective partition, rainfall totals, and temperature bias when compared to observations.

Description: The authors address a particular example of the general question of whether high-resolution forecasts provide additional deterministic skill beyond what can be achieved with a coarser-resolution model. To this end, real-time forecasts using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with grid increments of 30 and 3.3 km are compared over a domain centered on the complex terrain region of southern New Mexico during the 1 June 2002 to 1 June 2003 period. The authors use time series of surface data to evaluate the relative ability of the two forecasts to capture significant temporal variations of wind. The authors hypothesize that the additional detail and structure provided by high resolution becomes a “liability” when the forecasts are scored by traditional verification metrics, because such metrics sharply penalize forecasts with small temporal or spatial errors of predicted features. Thus, a set of verification metrics is designed that is increasingly tolerant of timing errors for temporal changes of wind. The authors find that the barrier-normal (i.e., zonal) wind component over complex terrain reveals the greatest improvement in skill due to increased horizontal resolution for the cases considered here. In addition, the fine-grid forecasts better replicate the cessation of drainage flow or onset of upslope flow near and within complex terrain. The most surprising result is the marginal benefit of the higher resolution over valley locations not in immediate proximity to the mountain slopes, even though the valley is only about 60 km across (east–west). Overall, the gains in forecast accuracy from finer grid spacing are generally incremental, but increase with greater tolerance for timing errors, culminating in the greatest improvement for forecasts of temporal variance.

Description: During the warm season in the central United States there often exists a corridor of precipitation where a succession of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) follow similar paths lasting several days. The total cumulative rainfall within a corridor can be substantial while precipitation at nearby regions may be below normal. Understanding the nature of the corridors and the environmental factors important for their formation thus has important implications for quantitative precipitation forecasting and hydrological studies. In this study a U.S. national composite radar dataset and model-analyzed fields are used for the 1998–2002 warm seasons (July–August) to understand the properties of corridors and what environmental factors are important for determining when and where they develop. The analysis is restricted to a relatively narrow longitudinal band in the central United States (95°–100°W), a region where convection often intensifies and becomes highly organized. It is found that ∼68% of MCSs were members of a series and that corridors typically persist for 2–7 days with an extreme case lasting 13 days. Cumulative radar-derived maximum rainfall ranges from 8 to 50 cm, underscoring the fact that corridors can experience excessive rainfall. Combining radar with Rapid Update Cycle model kinematic and thermodynamic fields, 5-yr composites are presented and stratified according to the environmental conditions. While the corridors show the expected association with areas of enhanced CAPE and relatively strong northwesterly/westerly shear, the strongest association is with the northern terminus region of the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). Furthermore, the relative intensity of the rainfall is positively correlated with the strength of the LLJ. The LLJ is thought to play a role through enhanced convergence and lifting, moisture transport, and frontogenesis. In the five years analyzed, the large-scale environment varied considerably, but the role of the LLJ in the formation of corridors remained persistent.

Description: Observations from the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Experiment are used to examine the role of the five mesoscale convective vortices described in Part I on heavy precipitation during the daytime heating cycle. Persistent widespread stratiform rain without deep convection occurs for two strong MCVs in conditionally stable environments with strong vertical shear. Two other MCVs in moderate-to-strong vertical shear have localized redevelopment of deep convection (termed secondary convection) on their downshear side, where conditional instability exists. The strongest of the five MCVs occurs in weak vertical shear and has widespread secondary convection, which is most intense on its conditionally unstable southeast periphery. The two MCVs with only localized secondary convection have well-defined mesoscale vertical motion couplets with downshear ascent and upshear descent above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Although the amplitude is significantly greater, the kinematically derived vertical motion dipole resembles that implied by steady, vortex-relative isentropic flow, consistent with previous idealized (dry) simulations and diagnoses based on operational model analyses. In the other three cases with either widespread precipitation or weak environmental vertical shear, the kinematic and isentropic vertical motion patterns are poorly correlated. Vertical motions above the PBL provide a focus for secondary convection through adiabatic cooling downshear and adiabatic warming upshear of the MCV center. The MCVs occur within surface frontal zones with large temperature and moisture gradients across the environmental vertical shear vector (Part I). Thus, the effect of vertical motions on conditional instability is reinforced by horizontal advections of high equivalent potential temperature air downshear, and low equivalent potential temperature air upshear within the PBL. On average, the quadrant immediately right of downshear (typically southeast of the MCV center) best supports deep convection because of the juxtaposition of greatest mesoscale ascent, high equivalent potential temperature PBL air, and MCV-induced enhancement of the vertical shear.

Description: Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational forecasts for storm position and intensity. Recurring errors include 1) excessive intensification prior to landfall, 2) insufficient momentum exchange with the surface, and 3) inability to capture rapid intensification when observed. To address these errors several augmentations of the basic community model have been designed and tested as part of what is termed the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. Based on sensitivity simulations of Katrina, the inner-core structure, particularly the size of the eye, was found to be sensitive to model resolution and surface momentum exchange. The forecast of rapid intensification and the structure of convective bands in Katrina were not significantly improved until the grid spacing approached 1 km. Coupling the atmospheric model to a columnar, mixed layer ocean model eliminated much of the erroneous intensification of Katrina prior to landfall noted in the real-time forecast.

Description: The threat posed to North America by Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones (TCs) was highlighted by a series of intense landfalling storms that occurred during the record-setting 2005 hurricane season. However, the ability to understand—and therefore the ability to predict—tropical cyclogenesis remains limited, despite recent field studies and numerical experiments that have led to the development of conceptual models describing pathways for tropical vortex initiation. This study addresses the issue of TC spinup by developing a dynamically based classification scheme built on a diagnosis of North Atlantic hurricanes between 1948 and 2004. A pair of metrics is presented that describes TC development from the perspective of external forcings in the local environment. These discriminants are indicative of quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent and lower-level baroclinicity and are computed for the 36 h leading up to TC initiation. A latent trajectory model is used to classify the evolution of the metrics for 496 storms, and a physical synthesis of the results yields six identifiable categories of tropical cyclogenesis events. The nonbaroclinic category accounts for 40% of Atlantic TCs, while events displaying perturbations from this archetype make up the remaining 60% of storms. A geographical clustering of the groups suggests that the classification scheme is identifying fundamentally different categories of tropical cyclogenesis. Moreover, significant differences between the postinitiation attributes of the classes indicate that the evolution of TCs may be sensitive to the pathway taken during development.

Description: The period 5–15 June 2003, during the field phase of the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Experiment (BAMEX), was noteworthy for the wide variety of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that occurred. Of particular interest was a long-lived MCV that formed in the trailing stratiform region of an MCS over west Texas at 0600 UTC 10 June. This MCV was noteworthy for its (i) longevity as it can be tracked from 0600 UTC 10 June to 1200 UTC 14 June, (ii) development of a surface cyclonic circulation and attendant −2- to −4-hPa sea level pressure perturbation, (iii) ability to retrigger convection and produce widespread rains over several diurnal heating cycles, and (iv) transition into a baroclinic surface cyclone with distinct frontal features. Baroclinic transition, defined here as the acquisition of surface fronts, occurred as the MCV interacted with a remnant cold front, left behind by a predecessor extratropical cyclone, over the Great Lakes region. Although the MCV developed well-defined frontal structure, which helped to focus heavy precipitation, weakening occurred throughout the baroclinic transition process. Energetics calculations indicated that weakening occurred as the diabatic and baroclinic energy conversion terms approached zero just prior and during baroclinic transition. This weakening can be attributed to (i) an increase in environmental wind shear, (ii) the development of a downshear tilt and associated anticyclonic vorticity advection over the surface low center, and (iii) the eastward relative movement of organized convection away from the MCV center.