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  • American Meteorological Society  (4)
  • 2010-2014  (4)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2010-08-01
    Description: Some studies of ocean climate model experiments suggest that regional changes in dynamic sea level could provide a valuable indicator of trends in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). This paper describes the use of a sequence of global ocean–ice model experiments to show that the diagnosed patterns of sea surface height (SSH) anomalies associated with changes in the MOC in the North Atlantic (NA) depend critically on the time scales of interest. Model hindcast simulations for 1958–2004 reproduce the observed pattern of SSH variability with extrema occurring along the Gulf Stream (GS) and in the subpolar gyre (SPG), but they also show that the pattern is primarily related to the wind-driven variability of MOC and gyre circulation on interannual time scales; it is reflected also in the leading EOF of SSH variability over the NA Ocean, as described in previous studies. The pattern, however, is not useful as a “fingerprint” of longer-term changes in the MOC: as shown with a companion experiment, a multidecadal, gradual decline in the MOC [of 5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) over 5 decades] induces a much broader, basin-scale SSH rise over the mid-to-high-latitude NA, with amplitudes of 20 cm. The detectability of such a trend is low along the GS since low-frequency SSH changes are effectively masked here by strong variability on shorter time scales. More favorable signal-to-noise ratios are found in the SPG and the eastern NA, where a MOC trend of 0.1 Sv yr−1 would leave a significant imprint in SSH already after about 20 years.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2013-02-15
    Description: Variations in eastern Indian Ocean upper-ocean thermal properties are assessed for the period 1970–2004, with a particular focus on asymmetric features related to opposite phases of Indian Ocean dipole events, using high-resolution ocean model hindcasts. Sensitivity experiments, where interannual atmospheric forcing variability is restricted to the Indian or Pacific Ocean only, support the interpretation of forcing mechanisms for large-scale asymmetric behavior in eastern Indian Ocean variability. Years are classified according to eastern Indian Ocean subsurface heat content (HC) as proxy of thermocline variations. Years characterized by an anomalous low HC feature a zonal gradient in upper-ocean properties near the equator, while high events have a meridional gradient from the tropics into the subtropics. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the seasonal evolution of HC anomalies for the two cases is distinct, as is the relative contribution from Indian Ocean atmospheric forcing versus remote influences from Pacific wind forcing: low events develop rapidly during austral winter/spring in response to Indian Ocean wind forcing associated with an enhanced southeasterly monsoon driving coastal upwelling and a shoaling thermocline in the east; in contrast, formation of an anomalous high eastern Indian Ocean HC is more gradual, with anomalies earlier in the year expanding from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region, initiated by remote Pacific wind forcing, and transmitted through the ITF via coastal wave dynamics. Implications for seasonal predictions arise with high HC events offering extended lead times for predicting thermocline variations and upper-ocean properties across the eastern Indian Ocean.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: The Agulhas Current plays a crucial role in the thermohaline circulation through its leakage into the South Atlantic Ocean. Under both past and present climates, the trade winds and westerlies could have the ability to modulate the amount of Indian–Atlantic inflow. Compelling arguments have been put forward suggesting that trade winds alone have little impact on the magnitude of Agulhas leakage. Here, employing three ocean models for robust analysis—a global coarse-resolution, a regional eddy-permitting, and a nested high-resolution eddy-resolving configuration—and systematically altering the position and intensity of the westerly wind belt in a series of sensitivity experiments, it is shown that the westerlies, in particular their intensity, control the leakage. Leakage responds proportionally to the intensity of westerlies up to a certain point. Beyond this, through the adjustment of the large-scale circulation, energetic interactions occur between the Agulhas Return Current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that result in a state where leakage no longer increases. This adjustment takes place within one or two decades. Contrary to previous assertions, these results further show that an equatorward (poleward) shift in westerlies increases (decreases) leakage. This occurs because of the redistribution of momentum input by the winds. It is concluded that the reported present-day leakage increase could therefore reflect an unadjusted oceanic response mainly to the strengthening westerlies over the last few decades.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2014-07-01
    Description: The relationship between the Agulhas Current and the Agulhas leakage is not well understood. Here, this is investigated using two basin-scale and two global ocean models of incrementally increasing resolution. The response of the Agulhas Current is evaluated under a series of sensitivity experiments, in which idealized anomalies, designed to geometrically modulate zonal trade wind stress, are applied across the Indian Ocean Basin. The imposed wind stress changes exceed plus or minus two standard deviations from the annual-mean trade winds and, in the case of intensification, are partially representative of recently observed trends. The Agulhas leakage is quantified using complimentary techniques based on Lagrangian virtual floats and Eulerian passive tracer flux. As resolution increases, model behavior converges and the sensitivity of the leakage to Agulhas Current transport anomalies is reduced. In the two eddy-resolving configurations tested, the leakage is insensitive to changes in Agulhas Current transport at 32°S, though substantial eddy kinetic energy anomalies are evident. Consistent with observations, the position of the retroflection remains stable. The decoupling of Agulhas Current variability from the Agulhas leakage suggests that while correlations between the two may exist, they may not have a clear dynamical basis. It is suggested that present and future Agulhas leakage proxies should be considered in the context of potentially transient forcing regimes.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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