ALBERT

Description: PISCES-v2 is a biogeochemical model which simulates the lower trophic levels of marine ecosystem (phytoplankton, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and of the main nutrients (P, N, Fe, and Si). The model is intended to be used for both regional and global configurations at high or low spatial resolutions as well as for short-term (seasonal, interannual) and long-term (climate change, paleoceanography) analyses. There are twenty-four prognostic variables (tracers) including two phytoplankton compartments (diatoms and nanophytoplankton), two zooplankton size-classes (microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and a description of the carbonate chemistry. Formulations in PISCES-v2 are based on a mixed Monod–Quota formalism: on one hand, stoichiometry of C/N/P is fixed and growth rate of phytoplankton is limited by the external availability in N, P and Si. On the other hand, the iron and silicium quotas are variable and growth rate of phytoplankton is limited by the internal availability in Fe. Various parameterizations can be activated in PISCES-v2, setting for instance the complexity of iron chemistry or the description of particulate organic materials. So far, PISCES-v2 has been coupled to the NEMO and ROMS systems. A full description of PISCES-v2 and of its optional functionalities is provided here. The results of a quasi-steady state simulation are presented and evaluated against diverse observational and satellite-derived data. Finally, some of the new functionalities of PISCES-v2 are tested in a series of sensitivity experiments.

Description: Planktonic Foraminifera are a major contributor to the deep carbonate flux and their microfossil deposits form one of the richest databases for reconstructing paleoenvironments, particularly through changes in their taxonomic and shell composition. Using an empirically based planktonic foraminifer model that incorporates three known major physiological drivers of their biogeography – temperature, food and light – we investigate (i) the global redistribution of planktonic Foraminifera under anthropogenic climate change and (ii) the alteration of the carbonate chemistry of foraminiferal habitat with ocean acidification. The present-day and future (2090–2100) 3-D distributions of Foraminifera are simulated using temperature, plankton biomass and light from an Earth system model forced with a historical and a future (IPCC A2) high CO2 emission scenario. Foraminiferal abundance and diversity are projected to decrease in the tropics and subpolar regions and increase in the subtropics and around the poles. Temperature is the dominant control on the future change in the biogeography of Foraminifera. Yet food availability acts to either reinforce or counteract the temperature-driven changes. In the tropics and subtropics the largely temperature-driven shift to depth is enhanced by the increased concentration of phytoplankton at depth. In the higher latitudes the food-driven response partly offsets the temperature-driven reduction both in the subsurface and across large geographical regions. The large-scale rearrangements in foraminiferal abundance and the reduction in the carbonate ion concentrations in the habitat range of planktonic foraminifers – from 10–30 μmol kg−1 in their polar and subpolar habitats to 30–70 μmol kg−1 in their subtropical and tropical habitats – would be expected to lead to changes in the marine carbonate flux. High-latitude species are most vulnerable to anthropogenic change: their abundance and available habitat decrease and up to 10% of the volume of their habitat drops below the calcite saturation horizon.

Description: The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known about how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. Assuming nitrification as the dominant N2O formation pathway, we implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production which differ primarily under low-oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high-CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12 % in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 TgN yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), i.e., in the eastern tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production, associated primarily with denitrification. While there are many uncertainties in the relative contribution and changes in the N2O production pathways, the increasing storage seems unequivocal and determines largely the decrease in N2O emissions in the future. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assessment for a potential balance between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next-generation Earth system models.

Description: During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were carried out on the systematic assessment of the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. Mean-state assessments routinely compared model hindcasts to available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither the extent of equilibrium in modeled biogeochemical reservoirs nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESM) contribute to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500 year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and is consistent when confronted against a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications on their performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercices in order to provide realistic ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

Description: In the framework of the INDESO (Infrastructure evelopment of Space Oceanography) project, an operational ocean forecasting system was developed to monitor the state of the Indonesian seas in terms of circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries. This forecasting system combines a suite of numerical models connecting physical and biogeochemical variables to population dynamics of large marine predators (tunas). The physical/biogeochemical coupled component (INDO12BIO configuration) covers a large region extending from the western Pacific Ocean to the Eastern Indian Ocean at 1/12° resolution. The OPA/NEMO physical ocean model and the PISCES biogeochemical model are coupled in "on-line" mode without degradation in space and time. The operational global ocean forecasting system (1/4°) operated by Mercator Ocean provides the physical forcing while climatological open boundary conditions are prescribed for the biogeochemistry. This paper describes the skill assessment of the INDO12BIO configuration. Model skill is assessed by evaluating a reference hindcast simulation covering the last 8 years (2007–2014). Model results are compared to satellite, climatological and in situ observations. Diagnostics are performed on chlorophyll a, primary production, mesozooplankton, nutrients and oxygen. Model results reproduce the main characteristics of biogeochemical tracer distributions in space and time. The seasonal cycle of chlorophyll a is in phase with satellite observations. The northern and southern parts of the archipelago present a distinct seasonal cycle, with higher chlorophyll biomass in the southern (northern) part during SE (NW) monsoon. Nutrient and oxygen concentrations are correctly reproduced in terms of horizontal and vertical distributions. The biogeochemical content of water masses entering in the archipelago as well as the water mass transformation across the archipelago conserves realistic vertical distribution in Banda Sea and at the exit of the archipelago.

Description: PISCES-v2 (Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies volume 2) is a biogeochemical model which simulates the lower trophic levels of marine ecosystems (phytoplankton, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and of the main nutrients (P, N, Fe, and Si). The model is intended to be used for both regional and global configurations at high or low spatial resolutions as well as for short-term (seasonal, interannual) and long-term (climate change, paleoceanography) analyses. There are 24 prognostic variables (tracers) including two phytoplankton compartments (diatoms and nanophytoplankton), two zooplankton size classes (microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and a description of the carbonate chemistry. Formulations in PISCES-v2 are based on a mixed Monod–quota formalism. On the one hand, stoichiometry of C / N / P is fixed and growth rate of phytoplankton is limited by the external availability in N, P and Si. On the other hand, the iron and silicon quotas are variable and the growth rate of phytoplankton is limited by the internal availability in Fe. Various parameterizations can be activated in PISCES-v2, setting, for instance, the complexity of iron chemistry or the description of particulate organic materials. So far, PISCES-v2 has been coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) systems. A full description of PISCES-v2 and of its optional functionalities is provided here. The results of a quasi-steady-state simulation are presented and evaluated against diverse observational and satellite-derived data. Finally, some of the new functionalities of PISCES-v2 are tested in a series of sensitivity experiments.

Description: The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known about how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. Assuming nitrification as the dominant N2O formation pathway, we implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production which differ primarily under low-oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high-CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12 % in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 TgN yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), i.e., in the eastern tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production, associated primarily with denitrification. While there are many uncertainties in the relative contribution and changes in the N2O production pathways, the increasing storage seems unequivocal and determines largely the decrease in N2O emissions in the future. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assessment for a potential balance between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next-generation Earth system models.

Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 11 (2014): 6955-6967, doi:10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014.

Description: This study aims to evaluate the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding −0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environments. We report on major pH reductions over the deep North Atlantic seafloor (depth 〉500 m) and at important deep-sea features, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100, and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding −0.2 (−0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~8% (3%) of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity, implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation.

Description: This work was supported through EU FP7 projects EPOCA (grant no. 211384) and CARBOCHANGE (grant no. 264879). D. O. B. Jones was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council as part of the Marine Environmental Mapping Programme (MAREMAP). S. C. Doney acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (AGS-1048827). F. Joos acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation.