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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Christie, M. A., Bernhardt, C. E., Parnell, A. C., Shaw, T. A., Khan, N. S., Corbett, D. R., Garcia-Artola, A., Clear, J., Walker, J. S., Donnelly, J. P., Hasse, T. R., & Horton, B. P. Pollen geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the last 500 years. Water, 13(3), (2021): 362, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030362.
    Description: Building robust age–depth models to understand climatic and geologic histories from coastal sedimentary archives often requires composite chronologies consisting of multi-proxy age markers. Pollen chronohorizons derived from a known change in vegetation are important for age–depth models, especially those with other sparse or imprecise age markers. However, the accuracy of pollen chronohorizons compared to other age markers and the impact of pollen chronohorizons on the precision of age–depth models, particularly in salt marsh environments, is poorly understood. Here, we combine new and published pollen data from eight coastal wetlands (salt marshes and mangroves) along the Atlantic Coast of the United States (U.S.) from Florida to Connecticut to define the age and uncertainty of 17 pollen chronohorizons. We found that 13 out of 17 pollen chronohorizons were consistent when compared to other age markers (radiocarbon, radionuclide 137Cs and pollution markers). Inconsistencies were likely related to the hyperlocality of pollen chronohorizons, mixing of salt marsh sediment, reworking of pollen from nearby tidal flats, misidentification of pollen signals, and inaccuracies in or misinterpretation of other age markers. Additionally, in a total of 24 models, including one or more pollen chronohorizons, increased precision (up to 41 years) or no change was found in 18 models.
    Description: MC was funded by the National Science Foundation EAR 1624551. NSK, TS, and BPH were funded by the Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2018-T2-1-030 and MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This article is a contribution to International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 639, “Sea Level Change from Minutes to Millennia”. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 349. AP wishes to acknowledge the funding Science Foundation Ireland Career Development Award (17/CDA/4695); an investigator award (16/IA/4520); a Marine Research Programme funded by the Irish Government, co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (Grant-Aid Agreement No. PBA/CC/18/01); European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 818144; and SFI Research Centre awards 16/RC/3872 and 12/RC/2289_P2.
    Keywords: Pollen ; Age–depth models ; Geochronology ; Holocene ; Coastal wetlands
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Fall, P. L., van Hengstum, P. J., Lavold-Foote, L., Donnelly, J. P., Albury, N. A., & Tamalavage, A. E. Human arrival and landscape dynamics in the northern Bahamas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(10), (2021): e2015764118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015764118.
    Description: The first Caribbean settlers were Amerindians from South America. Great Abaco and Grand Bahama, the final islands colonized in the northernmost Bahamas, were inhabited by the Lucayans when Europeans arrived. The timing of Lucayan arrival in the northern Bahamas has been uncertain because direct archaeological evidence is limited. We document Lucayan arrival on Great Abaco Island through a detailed record of vegetation, fire, and landscape dynamics based on proxy data from Blackwood Sinkhole. From about 3,000 to 1,000 y ago, forests dominated by hardwoods and palms were resilient to the effects of hurricanes and cooling sea surface temperatures. The arrival of Lucayans by about 830 CE (2σ range: 720 to 920 CE) is demarcated by increased burning and followed by landscape disturbance and a time-transgressive shift from hardwoods and palms to the modern pine forest. Considering that Lucayan settlements in the southern Bahamian archipelago are dated to about 750 CE (2σ range: 600 to 900 CE), these results demonstrate that Lucayans spread rapidly through the archipelago in less than 100 y. Although precontact landscapes would have been influenced by storms and climatic trends, the most pronounced changes follow more directly from landscape burning and ecosystem shifts after Lucayan arrival. The pine forests of Abaco declined substantially between 1500 and 1670 CE, a period of increased regional hurricane activity, coupled with fires on an already human-impacted landscape. Any future intensification of hurricane activity in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean threatens the sustainability of modern pine forests in the northern Bahamas.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF Awards GSS-1118340 (P.L.F.), OCE-1356509 (P.J.v.H.), OCE-1703087 (P.J.v.H.), and OCE-1356708 (J.P.D.).
    Keywords: Anthropogenic burning ; Lucayan ; Caribbean ; Pollen ; Vegetation change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wallace, E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Winkler, T. S., McKeon, K., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N. E., Sullivan, R. M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., & Maio, C. 1,050 years of hurricane strikes on long island in the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36(3), (2021): e2020PA004156, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004156.
    Description: Sedimentary records of past hurricane activity indicate centennial-scale periods over the past millennium with elevated hurricane activity. The search for the underlying mechanism behind these active hurricane periods is confounded by regional variations in their timing. Here, we present a new high resolution paleohurricane record from The Bahamas with a synthesis of published North Atlantic records over the past millennium. We reconstruct hurricane strikes over the past 1,050 years in sediment cores from a blue hole on Long Island in The Bahamas. Coarse-grained deposits in these cores date to the close passage of seven hurricanes over the historical interval. We find that the intensity and angle of approach of these historical storms plays an important role in inducing storm surge near the site. Our new record indicates four active hurricane periods on Long Island that conflict with published records on neighboring islands (Andros and Abaco Island). We demonstrate these three islands do not sample the same storms despite their proximity, and we compile these reconstructions together to create the first regional compilation of annually resolved paleohurricane records in The Bahamas. Integrating our Bahamian compilation with compiled records from the U.S. coastline indicates basin-wide increased storminess during the Medieval Warm Period. Afterward, the hurricane patterns in our Bahamian compilation match those reconstructed along the U.S. East Coast but not in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This disconnect may result from shifts in local environmental conditions in the North Atlantic or shifts in hurricane populations from straight-moving to recurving storms over the past millennium.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E. J. W.), the Dalio Explore Foundation, and National Science Foundation grant OCE-1356708 (to J. P. D. and P. J. vH.).
    Keywords: Bahamas ; Blue holes ; Carbonates ; Paleohurricanes ; Sediment cores
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2020. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bramante, J. F., Ford, M. R., Kench, P. S., Ashton, A. D., Toomey, M. R., Sullivan, R. M., Karnauskas, K. B., Ummenhofer, C. C., & Donnelly, J. P. (2020). Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes. Nature Geoscience, 13, 806–811. doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00656-2.
    Description: The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 ce was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.
    Description: This work was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP RC-2336). C.C.U. acknowledges support from NSF under AGS-1602455. We thank student intern D. Carter for extensive labwork on core LTD3. We acknowledge the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. CMIP5 model output was provided by the WHOI CMIP5 Community Storage Server via their website: http://cmip5.whoi.edu/. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.
    Description: 2021-05-16
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Little Ice Age ; Last millennium ; Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Little, S. N., van Hengstum, P. J., Beddows, P. A., Donnelly, J. P., Winkler, T. S., & Albury, N. A. . Unique habitat for benthic foraminifera in subtidal blue holes on carbonate platforms. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 9, (2021): 794728, https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.794728.
    Description: Dissolution of carbonate platforms, like The Bahamas, throughout Quaternary sea-level oscillations have created mature karst landscapes that can include sinkholes and off-shore blue holes. These karst features are flooded by saline oceanic waters and meteoric-influenced groundwaters, which creates unique groundwater environments and ecosystems. Little is known about the modern benthic meiofauna, like foraminifera, in these environments or how internal hydrographic characteristics of salinity, dissolved oxygen, or pH may influence benthic habitat viability. Here we compare the total benthic foraminiferal distributions in sediment-water interface samples collected from 〈2 m water depth on the carbonate tidal flats, and the two subtidal blue holes Freshwater River Blue Hole and Meredith’s Blue Hole, on the leeward margin of Great Abaco Island, The Bahamas. All samples are dominated by miliolid foraminifera (i.e., Quinqueloculina and Triloculina), yet notable differences emerge in the secondary taxa between these two environments that allows identification of two assemblages: a Carbonate Tidal Flats Assemblage (CTFA) vs. a Blue Hole Assemblage (BHA). The CTFA includes abundant common shallow-water lagoon foraminifera (e.g., Peneroplis, Rosalina, Rotorbis), while the BHA has higher proportions of foraminifera that are known to tolerate stressful environmental conditions of brackish and dysoxic waters elsewhere (e.g., Pseudoeponides, Cribroelphidium, Ammonia). We also observe how the hydrographic differences between subtidal blue holes can promote different benthic habitats for foraminifera, and this is observed through differences in both agglutinated and hyaline fauna. The unique hydrographic conditions in subtidal blue holes make them great laboratories for assessing the response of benthic foraminiferal communities to extreme environmental conditions (e.g., low pH, dysoxia).
    Description: The financial support for this work was provided by grants from the National Science Foundation to PvH (EAR-1833117) and JD (EAR-1702946).
    Keywords: The Bahamas ; Groundwater ; Benthic foraminifera ; Blue holes ; Karst landscapes ; Environmental stress
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-10-21
    Description: The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of climate’s influence on tropical cyclone behavior is restricted by the short historical record and sparse prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis and compare with other records to explore past regional typhoon dynamics. These records demonstrate low baseline activity prior to 1350 C.E. followed by a rapid culmination in activity during the Little Ice Age. This pattern is concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggesting a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. Using an ensemble of global climate models, we demonstrate that migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. Changes to Walker Circulation and expansion of the tropics projected for the next century invert Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.
    Description: This project was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program through award SERDP RC-2336
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Little Ice Age ; Last millennium ; Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-21
    Description: These data files and MATLAB scripts reproduce the model data and figures as published in Bramante et al. (in prep) Modeling the impacts of a changing climate on cross-shore sediment transport: Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands.
    Description: Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean-facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross-shore sediment exchange and thus affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea-level rise and projected wave climate change on wave characteristics and cross-shore sediment transport across an atoll reef at Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Using a phase-resolving model, we quantify the influence on sediment transport of quantities not well-captured by wave-averaged models, namely wave asymmetry and skewness and flow acceleration. Model results suggest that for current reef geometry, sea level, and wave climate, potential bedload transport is directed onshore, decreases from the fore reef to the beach, and is sensitive to the influence of flow acceleration. We find that a projected 12% decrease in annual wave energy by 2100 CE has negligible influence on reef flat hydrodynamics. However, 0.5-2.0 m of sea-level rise increases wave heights, skewness, and shear stress on the reef flat, and decreases wave skewness and shear stress on the fore reef. These hydrodynamic changes decrease potential sediment inputs onshore from the fore reef where coral production is greatest, but increase potential cross-reef sediment transport from the outer reef flat to the beach. Assuming sediment production on the fore reef remains constant or decreases due to increasing ocean temperatures and acidification, these processes have the potential to decrease net sediment delivery to atoll islands, causing erosion.
    Description: This project was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program through awards SERDP RC-2334 and RC-2336.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Sediment transport ; Wave model ; Fringing reef
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Rodysill, J. R., Donnelly, J. P., Sullivan, R., Lane, P. D., Toomey, M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N., McKeon, K., Wallace, E., & van Hengstum, P. J. Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 19092. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75874-0.
    Description: Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.
    Description: Funding for this project was provided by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) grant and NSF awards 0903020, 1902463, and 1854980 awarded to Jeffrey Donnelly, and the USGS Land Change Science Program.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Winkler, T. S., van Hengstum, P. J., Donnelly, J. P., Wallace, E. J., Sullivan, R. M., MacDonald, D., & Albury, N. A. Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (the Bahamas) over the last 700 years. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 16556, doi:10.1038/s41598-020-73132-x.
    Description: The northern Bahamas have experienced more frequent intense-hurricane impacts than almost anywhere else in the Atlantic since 1850 CE. In 2019, category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the destructive potential of these natural hazards. Problematically, determining whether high hurricane activity levels remained constant through time is difficult given the short observational record (〈 170 years). We present a 700-year long, near-annually resolved stratigraphic record of hurricane passage near Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH) on Abaco Island, The Bahamas. Using longer sediment cores (888 cm) and more reliable age-control, this study revises and temporally expands a previous study from TPBH that underestimated the sedimentation rate. TPBH records at least 13 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century between 1500 to 1670 CE, which exceeds the 9 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century within 50 km of TPBH since 1850 CE. The eastern United States also experienced frequent hurricanes from 1500 to 1670 CE, but frequency was depressed elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. This suggests that spatial heterogeneity in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1850 CE could have persisted throughout the last millennium. This heterogeneity is impacted by climatic and stochastic forcing, but additional high-resolution paleo-hurricane reconstructions are required to assess the mechanisms that impact regional variability.
    Description: Field support was provided by Jody Albury and the staff of Friends of the Environment in Marsh Harbour, The Bahamas, and technical support was provided was provided by M. Horgan and S. Molodtsov. Funding for this project was provided by NSF Awards OCE-1356509, OCE-1356708, OCE-1854917, OCE-1903616, and ICER-1854980. The open access publishing fees for this article have been covered by the Texas A&M University Open Access to Knowledge Fund (OAKFund), supported by the University Libraries.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 125 (2020): e2019JF005446, doi: 10.1029/2019JF005446.
    Description: Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean‐facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross‐shore sediment exchange and, thus, affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea level rise and projected wave climate change on wave characteristics and cross‐shore sediment transport across an atoll reef at Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Using a phase‐resolving model, we quantify the influence on sediment transport of quantities not well captured by wave‐averaged models, namely, wave asymmetry and skewness and flow acceleration. Model results suggest that for current reef geometry, sea level, and wave climate, potential bedload transport is directed onshore, decreases from the fore reef to the beach, and is sensitive to the influence of flow acceleration. We find that a projected 12% decrease in annual wave energy by 2100 CE has negligible influence on reef flat hydrodynamics. However, 0.5–2.0 m of sea level rise increases wave heights, skewness, and shear stress on the reef flat and decreases wave skewness and shear stress on the fore reef. These hydrodynamic changes decrease potential sediment inputs onshore from the fore reef where coral production is greatest but increase potential cross‐reef sediment transport from the outer reef flat to the beach. Assuming sediment production on the fore reef remains constant or decreases due to increasing ocean temperatures and acidification, these processes have the potential to decrease net sediment delivery to atoll islands, causing erosion.
    Description: This study was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program through awards SERDP: RC‐2334, and RC‐2336. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
    Description: 2021-03-25
    Keywords: Coral atolls ; Fringing reefs ; Sediment transport ; Wave model ; Wave climate ; Sea level rise
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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