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  • 1
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    Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108 (2011): 11017-11022, doi:10.1073/pnas.1015619108.
    Description: We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 years based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. It then increased for 400 years at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/yr, representing the steepest, century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semi-empirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.
    Description: Research was supported by NSF grants (EAR-0951686) to BPH and JPD. ACK thanks a NOSAMS internship, UPenn paleontology stipend and grants from GSA and NAMS. North Carolina sea-level research was funded by NOAA (NA05NOS4781182), USGS (02ERAG0044) and NSF (EAR-0717364) grants to BPH with S. Culver and R. Corbett (East Carolina University). JPD (EAR-0309129) and MEM (ATM-0542356) acknowledge NSF support. MV acknowledges Academy of Finland Project 123113 and COST Action ES0701.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 2
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    Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard : increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE (2017)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114 (2017): 11861-11866, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1703568114 .
    Description: The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.
    Description: The authors acknowledge funding for this study from NOAA Grants #424-18 45GZ and #NA11OAR4310101, National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants OCE 1458904, EAR 1520683, and EAR Postdoctoral Fellowship 1625150, the Community Foundation of New Jersey, and David and Arleen McGlade.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Flood height ; Storm surge ; New York City ; Sea-level rise ; Hurricane ; Coastal flooding ; Storm tracks
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  • 3
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    Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era (2015)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112 (2015): 12610-12615, doi:10.1073/pnas.1513127112.
    Description: In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sealevel records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. We compare preanthropogenic era (AD 850 – AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (AD 1970 – AD 2005) storm-surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the preanthropogenic era has decreased to ~24.4 years in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.
    Description: The authors acknowledge funding for this study from NOAA Grants # 424-18 45GZ and # NA11OAR4310101 and National Science Foundation award OCE 1458904.
    Description: 2016-03-28
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Flood height ; Storm surge ; New York City ; Relative sea level ; Hurricane ; New Jersey
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  • 4
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    Author Correction : Accuracy and precision of tidal wetland soil carbon mapping in the conterminous United States (2018)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 8 (2018): 15219, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-33283-4.
    Description: This Article corrects an error in Equation 1
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
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    Stratigraphic record of Holocene coseismic subsidence, Padang, West Sumatra (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): B11306, doi:10.1029/2011JB008205.
    Description: Stratigraphic evidence is found for two coseismic subsidence events that underlie a floodplain 20 km south of Padang, West Sumatra along the Mentawai segment (0.5°S–0.3°S) of the Sunda subduction zone. Each earthquake is marked by a sharp soil-mud contact that represents a sudden change from mangrove to tidal flat. The earthquakes occurred about 4000 and 3000 cal years B.P. based on radiocarbon ages of detrital plant fragments and seeds. The absence of younger paleoseismic evidence suggests that late Holocene relative sea level fall left the floodplain too high for an earthquake to lower it into the intertidal zone. Our results point to a brief, few thousand year window of preservation of subsidence events in tidal-wetland stratigraphic sequences, a result that is generally applicable to other emergent coastlines of West Sumatra.
    Description: This work was supported by funding from National Science Foundation (EAR 0809392, 0809417, 0809625) awarded to C. Rubin, B. Horton, and H. Kelsey.
    Description: 2012-05-23
    Keywords: Coseismic subsidence
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  • 6
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    Heterogeneous rupture in the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700 inferred from coastal subsidence estimates (2013)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 118 (2013): 2460–2473, doi:10.1002/jgrb.50101.
    Description: Past earthquake rupture models used to explain paleoseismic estimates of coastal subsidence during the great A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake have assumed a uniform slip distribution along the megathrust. Here we infer heterogeneous slip for the Cascadia margin in A.D. 1700 that is analogous to slip distributions during instrumentally recorded great subduction earthquakes worldwide. The assumption of uniform distribution in previous rupture models was due partly to the large uncertainties of then available paleoseismic data used to constrain the models. In this work, we use more precise estimates of subsidence in 1700 from detailed tidal microfossil studies. We develop a 3-D elastic dislocation model that allows the slip to vary both along strike and in the dip direction. Despite uncertainties in the updip and downdip slip extensions, the more precise subsidence estimates are best explained by a model with along-strike slip heterogeneity, with multiple patches of high-moment release separated by areas of low-moment release. For example, in A.D. 1700, there was very little slip near Alsea Bay, Oregon (~44.4°N), an area that coincides with a segment boundary previously suggested on the basis of gravity anomalies. A probable subducting seamount in this area may be responsible for impeding rupture during great earthquakes. Our results highlight the need for more precise, high-quality estimates of subsidence or uplift during prehistoric earthquakes from the coasts of southern British Columbia, northern Washington (north of 47°N), southernmost Oregon, and northern California (south of 43°N), where slip distributions of prehistoric earthquakes are poorly constrained.
    Description: This research was supported by an NSF grant (EAR-0842728) to BPH and by the Earthquake Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. PLW was partially supported by a University of Victoria graduate scholarship.
    Keywords: Megathrust earthquake ; Cascadia ; Paleoseismology ; Coastal subsidence ; Earthquake deformation ; Microfossils
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  • 7
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    Accuracy and precision of tidal wetland soil carbon mapping in the conterminous United States (2018)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 8 (2018): 9478, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-26948-7.
    Description: Tidal wetlands produce long-term soil organic carbon (C) stocks. Thus for carbon accounting purposes, we need accurate and precise information on the magnitude and spatial distribution of those stocks. We assembled and analyzed an unprecedented soil core dataset, and tested three strategies for mapping carbon stocks: applying the average value from the synthesis to mapped tidal wetlands, applying models fit using empirical data and applied using soil, vegetation and salinity maps, and relying on independently generated soil carbon maps. Soil carbon stocks were far lower on average and varied less spatially and with depth than stocks calculated from available soils maps. Further, variation in carbon density was not well-predicted based on climate, salinity, vegetation, or soil classes. Instead, the assembled dataset showed that carbon density across the conterminous united states (CONUS) was normally distributed, with a predictable range of observations. We identified the simplest strategy, applying mean carbon density (27.0 kg C m−3), as the best performing strategy, and conservatively estimated that the top meter of CONUS tidal wetland soil contains 0.72 petagrams C. This strategy could provide standardization in CONUS tidal carbon accounting until such a time as modeling and mapping advancements can quantitatively improve accuracy and precision.
    Description: Synthesis efforts were funded by NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS; NNH14AY67I), USGS LandCarbon and the Smithsonian Institution. J.R.H. was additionally supported by the NSF-funded Coastal Carbon Research Coordination Network while completing this manuscript (DEB-1655622). J.M.S. coring efforts were funded by NSF (EAR-1204079). B.P.H. coring efforts were funded by Earth Observatory (Publication Number 197).
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  • 8
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    Pollen geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the last 500 years (2021)
    MDPI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Christie, M. A., Bernhardt, C. E., Parnell, A. C., Shaw, T. A., Khan, N. S., Corbett, D. R., Garcia-Artola, A., Clear, J., Walker, J. S., Donnelly, J. P., Hasse, T. R., & Horton, B. P. Pollen geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the last 500 years. Water, 13(3), (2021): 362, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030362.
    Description: Building robust age–depth models to understand climatic and geologic histories from coastal sedimentary archives often requires composite chronologies consisting of multi-proxy age markers. Pollen chronohorizons derived from a known change in vegetation are important for age–depth models, especially those with other sparse or imprecise age markers. However, the accuracy of pollen chronohorizons compared to other age markers and the impact of pollen chronohorizons on the precision of age–depth models, particularly in salt marsh environments, is poorly understood. Here, we combine new and published pollen data from eight coastal wetlands (salt marshes and mangroves) along the Atlantic Coast of the United States (U.S.) from Florida to Connecticut to define the age and uncertainty of 17 pollen chronohorizons. We found that 13 out of 17 pollen chronohorizons were consistent when compared to other age markers (radiocarbon, radionuclide 137Cs and pollution markers). Inconsistencies were likely related to the hyperlocality of pollen chronohorizons, mixing of salt marsh sediment, reworking of pollen from nearby tidal flats, misidentification of pollen signals, and inaccuracies in or misinterpretation of other age markers. Additionally, in a total of 24 models, including one or more pollen chronohorizons, increased precision (up to 41 years) or no change was found in 18 models.
    Description: MC was funded by the National Science Foundation EAR 1624551. NSK, TS, and BPH were funded by the Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2018-T2-1-030 and MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This article is a contribution to International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 639, “Sea Level Change from Minutes to Millennia”. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 349. AP wishes to acknowledge the funding Science Foundation Ireland Career Development Award (17/CDA/4695); an investigator award (16/IA/4520); a Marine Research Programme funded by the Irish Government, co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (Grant-Aid Agreement No. PBA/CC/18/01); European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 818144; and SFI Research Centre awards 16/RC/3872 and 12/RC/2289_P2.
    Keywords: Pollen ; Age–depth models ; Geochronology ; Holocene ; Coastal wetlands
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  • 9
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    Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era (2015)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-09-28
    Description: In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 10
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    Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE (2017)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-10-23
    Description: The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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