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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-02-08
    Description: The following authors were omitted from the original version of this Data Descriptor: Markus Reichstein and Nicolas Vuichard. Both contributed to the code development and N. Vuichard contributed to the processing of the ERA-Interim data downscaling. Furthermore, the contribution of the co-author Frank Tiedemann was re-evaluated relative to the colleague Corinna Rebmann, both working at the same sites, and based on this re-evaluation a substitution in the co-author list is implemented (with Rebmann replacing Tiedemann). Finally, two affiliations were listed incorrectly and are corrected here (entries 190 and 193). The author list and affiliations have been amended to address these omissions in both the HTML and PDF versions. © 2021, This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This paper explores the consequences of different policy assumptions and the derivation of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways for the seven largest greenhouse gas (GHG)–emitting countries (EU28 as a bloc) in the world, covering approximately 70% of global CO2 emissions, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C as compared with pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the process by which global integrated assessment model (IAM) teams interacted and derived boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for the different countries. Carbon budgets so derived for the 2011–2050 period were then used in eleven different national energy-economy models and IAMs for producing low-carbon pathways for the seven countries in line with a well below 2 °C world up to 2050. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting pathways and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them. Our results indicate quite different mitigation pathways for the different countries, shown by the way emission reductions are split between different sectors of their economies and technological alternatives.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-09-29
    Description: The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-12-16
    Description: We synthesize 10 topics within climate research where there have been significant advances or emerging scientific consensus since January 2021. The selection of these insights was based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings concern: (1) new aspects of soft and hard limits to adaptation; (2) the emergence of regional vulnerability hotspots from climate impacts and human vulnerability; (3) new threats on the climate–health horizon – some involving plants and animals; (4) climate (im)mobility and the need for anticipatory action; (5) security and climate; (6) sustainable land management as a prerequisite to land-based solutions; (7) sustainable finance practices in the private sector and the need for political guidance; (8) the urgent planetary imperative for addressing losses and damages; (9) inclusive societal choices for climate-resilient development and (10) how to overcome barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-02-16
    Description: One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-11-10
    Description: The present-day structure of the Eastern Cordillera in NW Argentina is governed by structural and lithological heterogeneities inherited from preceding deformation phases, which influence the localization of newly-formed faults and the inversion of pre-existing structures. The Salta Rift Basin formed during a Late Jurassic-Cretaceous extensional phase and created a dominant structural and stratigraphic imprint in NW Argentina that is particularly evident within the Eastern Cordillera, where uplift and exhumation have exposed the Salta Group syn-rift succession. Although in general, the Salta Group rests upon Paleozoic rocks, locally the Tacurú Group forms an intermediate succession, consisting of interfingering eolian sandstones and proximal fault-related conglomerates with a Jurassic maximum depositional age. This succession might be the key to unraveling the Mesozoic history of NW Argentina, prior to the deposition of the Salta Group. The conglomerates represent the earliest deposits related to extension in the western Lomas de Olmedo sub-basin, which is also documented in predominantly Jurassic zircon (U–Th-Sm)/He cooling ages of the rift shoulders. The detrital zircon U–Pb age signature and sandstone provenance of the Tacurú Group conglomerates differs strongly from the Salta Group syn-rift strata, which show a more regional signal. These variations and the angularity of the unconformity may be connected to a rotation of the extension direction in the western Lomas de Olmedo sub-basin.
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-04-14
    Description: Technological breakthroughs and policy measures targeting energy efficiency and clean energy alone will not suffice to deliver Paris Agreement-compliant greenhouse gas emissions trajectories in the next decades. Strong cases have recently been made for acknowledging the decarbonisation potential lying in transforming linear economic models into closed-loop industrial ecosystems and in shifting lifestyle patterns towards this direction. This perspective highlights the research capacity needed to inform on the role and potential of the circular economy for climate change mitigation and to enhance the scientific capabilities to quantitatively explore their synergies and trade-offs. This begins with establishing conceptual and methodological bridges amongst the relevant and currently fragmented research communities, thereby allowing an interdisciplinary integration and assessment of circularity, decarbonisation, and sustainable development. Following similar calls for science in support of climate action, a transdisciplinary scientific agenda is needed to co-create the goals and scientific processes underpinning the transition pathways towards a circular, net-zero economy with representatives from policy, industry, and civil society. Here, it is argued that such integration of disciplines, methods, and communities can then lead to new and/or structurally enhanced quantitative systems models that better represent critical industrial value chains, consumption patterns, and mitigation technologies. This will be a crucial advancement towards assessing the material implications of, and the contribution of enhanced circularity performance to, mitigation pathways that are compatible with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and the transition to a circular economy.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-12-06
    Description: Molecular‐biological data and omics tools have increasingly been used to characterize microorganisms responsible for the turnover of reactive compounds in the environment, such as reactive‐nitrogen species in groundwater. While transcripts of functional genes and enzymes are used as measures of microbial activity, it is not yet clear how they are quantitatively related to actual turnover rates under variable environmental conditions. As an example application, we consider the interface between rivers and groundwater which has been identified as a key driver for the turnover of reactive‐nitrogen compounds, that cause eutrophication of rivers and endanger drinking water production from groundwater. In the absence of measured data, we developed a reactive‐transport model for denitrification that simultaneously predicts the distributions of functional‐gene transcripts, enzymes, and reaction rates. Applying the model, we evaluate the response of transcripts and enzymes at the river‐groundwater interface to stable and dynamic hydrogeochemical regimes. While functional‐gene transcripts respond to short‐term (diurnal) fluctuations of substrate availability and oxygen concentrations, enzyme concentrations are stable over such time scales. The presence of functional‐gene transcripts and enzymes globally coincides with the zones of active denitrification. However, transcript and enzyme concentrations do not directly translate into denitrification rates in a quantitative way because of nonlinear effects and hysteresis caused by variable substrate availability and oxygen inhibition. Based on our simulations, we suggest that molecular‐biological data should be combined with aqueous geochemical data, which can typically be obtained at higher spatial and temporal resolution, to parameterize and calibrate reactive‐transport models.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Molecular‐biological tools can detect how many enzymes, functional genes, and gene transcripts (i.e., precursors of enzyme production) associated with a microbial reaction exist in a sample from the environment. Although these measurements contain valuable information about the number of bacteria and how active they are, they do not directly say how quickly a contaminant like nitrate disappears. Nitrate, from agriculture and other sources, threatens groundwater quality and drinking water production. In the process of denitrification, bacteria can remove nitrate by converting it into harmless nitrogen gas using specialized enzymes. The interface between rivers and groundwater is known as a place where denitrification takes place. In this study, we use a computational model to simulate the coupled dynamics of denitrification, bacteria, transcripts, and enzymes when nitrate‐rich groundwater interacts with a nearby river. The simulations yield complex and nonunique relationships between the denitrification rates and the molecular‐biological variables. While functional‐gene transcripts respond to daily fluctuations of environmental conditions, enzyme concentrations and genes are stable over such time scales. High levels of functional‐gene transcripts therefore provide a good qualitative indicator of reactive zones. Quantitative predictions of nitrate turnover, however, will require high‐resolution measurements of the reacting compounds, genes, and transcripts.
    Description: Key Points: We simulate the distributions of functional‐gene transcripts and enzymes related to denitrification at the river‐groundwater interface. Functional‐gene transcripts respond quickly to diurnal fluctuations of substrate and oxygen concentrations. Substrate limitation and oxygen inhibition impede the direct prediction of denitrification rates from transcript or enzyme concentrations.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6584591
    Description: https://gitlab.com/astoeriko/nitrogene
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6584641
    Description: https://gitlab.com/astoeriko/adrpy
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5213947
    Description: https://github.com/aseyboldt/sunode
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; reactive‐transport modeling ; denitrification ; groundwater‐river interface ; functional genes ; transcripts ; molecular biology
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-10-24
    Description: A sectoral perspective can help the Global Stocktake (GST) to effectively achieve its objective to inform Parties' in enhancing subsequent NDCs and in enhancing international cooperation. Specifically, granular and actionable sectoral lessons, grounded in country-driven assessments, should be identified and elaborated. To be effective, conversations on sectoral transformations need to synthesise key challenges and opportunities identified in the national analyses and link them to international enablers; focus on systemic interdependencies, involve diverse actors, and be thoroughly prepared including by pre-scoping points of convergences and divergence across transformations. We specifically recommend that: the co-facilitators of the Technical Dialogue use their (limited) mandate to facilitate an effective conversationon sectoral transformations e.g. by organising dedicated informal seminars in between formal negotiation sessions; key systemic transformations necessary toachieve net-zero by mid-century should be spelled out and included in the final decision or political declaration of the GST; and the political outcome of the GST should mandate follow-up processes at the regional level and encourage national-level conversations to translate the collective messages from GST into actionable and sector-specific policy recommendations.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: workingpaper , doc-type:workingPaper
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