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  • Public Library of Science (PLoS)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • 2015-2019  (11)
  • 2000-2004
  • 1965-1969
  • 2017  (11)
  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 1061-1075, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0248.1.
    Beschreibung: A major challenge in modeling the circulation over coral reefs is uncertainty in the drag coefficient because existing estimates span two orders of magnitude. Current and pressure measurements from five coral reefs are used to estimate drag coefficients based on depth-average flow, assuming a balance between the cross-reef pressure gradient and the bottom stress. At two sites wind stress is a significant term in the cross-reef momentum balance and is included in estimating the drag coefficient. For the five coral reef sites and a previous laboratory study, estimated drag coefficients increase as the water depth decreases consistent with open channel flow theory. For example, for a typical coral reef hydrodynamic roughness of 5 cm, observational estimates, and the theory indicate that the drag coefficient decreases from 0.4 in 20 cm of water to 0.005 in 10 m of water. Synthesis of results from the new field observations with estimates from previous field and laboratory studies indicate that coral reef drag coefficients range from 0.2 to 0.005 and hydrodynamic roughnesses generally range from 2 to 8 cm. While coral reef drag coefficients depend on factors such as physical roughness and surface waves, a substantial fraction of the scatter in estimates of coral reef drag coefficients is due to variations in water depth.
    Beschreibung: The Red Sea field program was supported by Awards USA 00002 and KSA 00011 made by KAUST to S. Lentz and J. Churchill. The Palau field program was funded by NSF Award OCE-1220529.
    Schlagwort(e): Ocean ; Currents ; Wind stress ; Boundary layer ; Sea level ; Tides
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-05-01
    Beschreibung: Neutral-buoyancy vehicles demand high-density energy sources and lithium is light with high oxidation energy. PolyPlus Battery Company has developed a prototype lithium-seawater battery that is attractive for powering long-duration autonomous oceanographic vehicles (floats and underwater gliders). These batteries were tested in the laboratory and at sea. PolyPlus batteries use “Protected Lithium Electrodes” with proprietary “windows” protecting the volatile lithium anode from water while passing lithium ions. The cathode reduces oxygen dissolved in seawater, or hydrolyzes seawater to produce hydrogen. Not requiring additional electrolyte, fuel, or pressure cases, these cells have impressive weight advantages. Good electrode–seawater mass transfer is required but can increase drag and be impeded by biofouling. Tests assessing robustness of the PolyPlus batteries in oceanographic use, evaluating mass transfer issues, and observing biofouling impacts are reported. In sea trials, two cells were tested for 69 days mounted on a Spray glider. Findings are as follows: 1) the cells were robust over 900 dives, most to 400 m; 2) without antifouling measures, the cells became substantially biofouled, but their performance was undiminished; and 3) performance was complex, depending on current density, oxygen concentration, and flow conditions. For dissolved oxygen concentration above 1 mL L−1, the cells delivered 9 W m−2 of electrode surface at 3 V. For low oxygen, the cell shifted to hydrolysis near 2.3 V, but mass transfer was less critical so current density could be increased and observed power reached 5 W m−2. This could be increased using a lower resistance load.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0426
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: Standard meteorological model performance evaluation (sMPE) can be insufficient in determining “fitness” for air quality modeling. An sMPE compares predictions of meteorological variables with community-based thresholds. Conceptually, these thresholds measure the model’s capability to represent mesoscale features that cause variability in air pollution. A method that instead examines features could provide a better estimate of fitness. This work compares measures of fitness from sMPE analysis with a feature-based MPE (fMPE). Meteorological simulations for Bogotá, Colombia, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model provide an ideal case study that highlights the importance of fMPE. Bogotá is particularly interesting because the complex topography presents challenges for WRF in sMPE. A cluster analysis identified four dominant meteorological features associated with air quality driven by wind patterns. The model predictions are able to pass several sMPE thresholds but show poor performance for wind direction. The base simulation can be improved with alternative surface characterization datasets for terrain, soil classification, and land use. Despite doubling the number of days with acceptable specific humidity, overall acceptability was never more than 10%. By comparison, an fMPE showed that predictions were able to reproduce the air-quality-relevant features on 38.4% of the days. The fMPE is based on features derived from an observational cluster analysis that have clear relationships with air quality, which suggests that reproducing those features will indicate better air quality model performance. An fMPE may be particularly useful for high-resolution modeling (1 km or less) when finescale variability can cause poor sMPE performance even when the general pattern that drives air pollution is well reproduced.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: The arid subtropics are situated at the edges of the tropical belt, where subsidence in the Hadley cells suppresses precipitation. Any meridional shift in these edge latitudes could have significant impacts on surface climate. Recent studies have investigated past and future changes in the tropical belt width and have found discrepancies in the rates of expansion estimated with different metrics and between climate models and reanalyses. Here, CMIP5 simulations and four modern reanalyses are analyzed using an ensemble of objective tropical belt width metrics to reexamine if such inconsistencies exist. The authors do not find sufficient evidence to demonstrate this discrepancy between models and reanalyses, as reanalysis trends in the tropical belt width fall within the range of model trends for any given metric. Furthermore, only metrics based on the Hadley cells are found to exhibit robust historical and future expansion. Metrics based on the subtropical jet and the tropopause show no robust response. This differentiation may be due to the strong correlation, on all time scales, between the Hadley cell edge latitudes and the latitudes of the eddy-driven jets, which consistently shift poleward in response to radiative forcings. In contrast, the subtropical jet and tropopause metrics appear to be decoupled from the Hadley cells and the eddy-driven jets and essentially measure a different tropical belt. The tropical belt width metrics are inconsistently correlated with surface climate indices based on precipitation and surface evaporation. This may make assessing the surface impacts of observed and future tropical expansion challenging.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-11-22
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0469
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-12-01
    Beschreibung: The potential for storm surge to cause extensive property damage and loss of life has increased urgency to more accurately predict coastal flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones. This work investigates the sensitivity of coastal inundation from storm tide (surge + tide) to four hurricane parameters—track, intensity, size, and translation speed—and the sensitivity of inundation forecasts to errors in forecasts of those parameters. An ensemble of storm tide simulations is generated for three storms in the Gulf of Mexico, by driving a storm surge model with best track data and systematically generated perturbations of storm parameters from the best track. The spread of the storm perturbations is compared to average errors in recent operational hurricane forecasts, allowing sensitivity results to be interpreted in terms of practical predictability of coastal inundation at different lead times. Two types of inundation metrics are evaluated: point-based statistics and spatially integrated volumes. The practical predictability of surge inundation is found to be limited foremost by current errors in hurricane track forecasts, followed by intensity errors, then speed errors. Errors in storm size can also play an important role in limiting surge predictability at short lead times, due to observational uncertainty. Results show that given current mean errors in hurricane forecasts, location-specific surge inundation is predictable for as little as 12–24 h prior to landfall, less for small-sized storms. The results also indicate potential for increased surge predictability beyond 24 h for large storms by considering a storm-following, volume-integrated metric of inundation.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0493
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-12-01
    Beschreibung: During the last few decades, scientific capabilities for understanding and predicting weather and climate risks have advanced rapidly. At the same time, technological advances, such as the Internet, mobile devices, and social media, are transforming how people exchange and interact with information. In this modern information environment, risk communication, interpretation, and decision-making are rapidly evolving processes that intersect across space, time, and society. Instead of a linear or iterative process in which individual members of the public assess and respond to distinct pieces of weather forecast or warning information, this article conceives of weather prediction, communication, and decision-making as an interconnected dynamic system. In this expanded framework, information and uncertainty evolve in conjunction with people’s risk perceptions, vulnerabilities, and decisions as a hazardous weather threat approaches; these processes are intertwined with evolving social interactions in the physical and digital worlds. Along with the framework, the article presents two interdisciplinary research approaches for advancing the understanding of this complex system and the processes within it: analysis of social media streams and computational natural–human system modeling. Examples from ongoing research are used to demonstrate these approaches and illustrate the types of new insights they can reveal. This expanded perspective together with research approaches, such as those introduced, can help researchers and practitioners understand and improve the creation and communication of information in atmospheric science and other fields.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0477
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-05-01
    Beschreibung: A major challenge in modeling the circulation over coral reefs is uncertainty in the drag coefficient because existing estimates span two orders of magnitude. Current and pressure measurements from five coral reefs are used to estimate drag coefficients based on depth-average flow, assuming a balance between the cross-reef pressure gradient and the bottom stress. At two sites wind stress is a significant term in the cross-reef momentum balance and is included in estimating the drag coefficient. For the five coral reef sites and a previous laboratory study, estimated drag coefficients increase as the water depth decreases consistent with open channel flow theory. For example, for a typical coral reef hydrodynamic roughness of 5 cm, observational estimates, and the theory indicate that the drag coefficient decreases from 0.4 in 20 cm of water to 0.005 in 10 m of water. Synthesis of results from the new field observations with estimates from previous field and laboratory studies indicate that coral reef drag coefficients range from 0.2 to 0.005 and hydrodynamic roughnesses generally range from 2 to 8 cm. While coral reef drag coefficients depend on factors such as physical roughness and surface waves, a substantial fraction of the scatter in estimates of coral reef drag coefficients is due to variations in water depth.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0485
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-19
    Beschreibung: Climate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation in the use of climate information to better manage the future variability of wind energy resources. Wind energy users have traditionally employed a simple approach that is based on an estimate of retrospective climatological information. Instead, climate predictions can better support the balance between energy demand and supply, as well as decisions relative to the scheduling of maintenance work. One limitation for the use of the climate predictions is the bias, which has until now prevented their incorporation in wind energy models because they require variables with statistical properties that are similar to those observed. To overcome this problem, two techniques of probabilistic climate forecast bias adjustment are considered here: a simple bias correction and a calibration method. Both approaches assume that the seasonal distributions are Gaussian. These methods are linear and robust and neither requires parameter estimation—essential features for the small sample sizes of current climate forecast systems. This paper is the first to explore the impact of the necessary bias adjustment on the forecast quality of an operational seasonal forecast system, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal predictions of near-surface wind speed to produce useful information for wind energy users. The results reveal to what extent the bias adjustment techniques, in particular the calibration method, are indispensable to produce statistically consistent and reliable predictions. The forecast-quality assessment shows that calibration is a fundamental requirement for high-quality climate service.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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