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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2010-09-01
    Print ISSN: 0012-821X
    Electronic ISSN: 1385-013X
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Elsevier
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2010-01-01
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2010-01-19
    Print ISSN: 0096-3941
    Electronic ISSN: 2324-9250
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21 (2007): GB3007, doi:10.1029/2006GB002857.
    Description: Results are presented of export production, dissolved organic matter (DOM) and dissolved oxygen simulated by 12 global ocean models participating in the second phase of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project. A common, simple biogeochemical model is utilized in different coarse-resolution ocean circulation models. The model mean (±1σ) downward flux of organic matter across 75 m depth is 17 ± 6 Pg C yr−1. Model means of globally averaged particle export, the fraction of total export in dissolved form, surface semilabile dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and seasonal net outgassing (SNO) of oxygen are in good agreement with observation-based estimates, but particle export and surface DOC are too high in the tropics. There is a high sensitivity of the results to circulation, as evidenced by (1) the correlation of surface DOC and export with circulation metrics, including chlorofluorocarbon inventory and deep-ocean radiocarbon, (2) very large intermodel differences in Southern Ocean export, and (3) greater export production, fraction of export as DOM, and SNO in models with explicit mixed layer physics. However, deep-ocean oxygen, which varies widely among the models, is poorly correlated with other model indices. Cross-model means of several biogeochemical metrics show better agreement with observation-based estimates when restricted to those models that best simulate deep-ocean radiocarbon. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of physical processes in marine biogeochemical modeling and suggest that the development of circulation models can be accelerated by evaluating them with marine biogeochemical metrics.
    Description: R. G. N. and J. L. S. acknowledge the support of NASA grants NAG5-6451 and NAG5-6591, respectively, as part of the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Program. G. K. P. and F. J. acknowledge support by the Swiss National Science Foundation. European contributions were supported by the EU GOSAC Project (ENV4-CT97- 0495).
    Keywords: Export production ; Numerical modeling ; Ocean circulation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 7 (2010): 621-640, doi:10.5194/bg-7-621-2010
    Description: Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years). Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.
    Description: S. A. H. was supported by NASA grants NNG06GE77G and NNX07AL81G. J. L. S. and C. B. acknowledge support from the Carbon Mitigation Initiative funded by BP Amoco. S. C. D. and I. L. were supported by NSF grant EF-0424599. L. B. acknowledges support from the ANR-GlobPhy and FP7-MEECE projects.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21 (2007): , doi:10.1029/2006GB002751.
    Description: We use an inverse method to estimate the global-scale pattern of the air-sea flux of natural CO2, i.e., the component of the CO2 flux due to the natural carbon cycle that already existed in preindustrial times, on the basis of ocean interior observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other tracers, from which we estimate ΔC gasex , i.e., the component of the observed DIC that is due to the gas exchange of natural CO2. We employ a suite of 10 different Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) to quantify the error arising from uncertainties in the modeled transport required to link the interior ocean observations to the surface fluxes. The results from the contributing OGCMs are weighted using a model skill score based on a comparison of each model's simulated natural radiocarbon with observations. We find a pattern of air-sea flux of natural CO2 characterized by outgassing in the Southern Ocean between 44°S and 59°S, vigorous uptake at midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and strong outgassing in the tropics. In the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, the inverse estimates generally agree closely with the natural CO2 flux results from forward simulations of coupled OGCM-biogeochemistry models undertaken as part of the second phase of the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). The OCMIP-2 simulations find far less air-sea exchange than the inversion south of 20°S, but more recent forward OGCM studies are in better agreement with the inverse estimates in the Southern Hemisphere. The strong source and sink pattern south of 20°S was not apparent in an earlier inversion study, because the choice of region boundaries led to a partial cancellation of the sources and sinks. We show that the inversely estimated flux pattern is clearly traceable to gradients in the observed ΔC gasex , and that it is relatively insensitive to the choice of OGCM or potential biases in ΔC gasex . Our inverse estimates imply a southward interhemispheric transport of 0.31 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1, most of which occurs in the Atlantic. This is considerably smaller than the 1 Pg C yr−1 of Northern Hemisphere uptake that has been inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations during the 1980s and 1990s, which supports the hypothesis of a Northern Hemisphere terrestrial sink.
    Description: This research was financially supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NAG5-12528. N. G. also acknowledges support by the National Science Foundation (OCE-0137274). Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, acknowledges support by the European Union through the Integrated Project CarboOcean and the Swiss National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Air-sea CO2 exchange ; Natural carbon cycle ; Ocean inversion
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): C12099, doi:10.1029/2009JC005835.
    Keywords: Modeling ; Climate ; Carbon
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22 (2008): GB3007, doi:10.1029/2007GB002958.
    Description: We use both theory and ocean biogeochemistry models to examine the role of the soft-tissue biological pump in controlling atmospheric CO2. We demonstrate that atmospheric CO2 can be simply related to the amount of inorganic carbon stored in the ocean by the soft-tissue pump, which we term (OCS soft ). OCS soft is linearly related to the inventory of remineralized nutrient, which in turn is just the total nutrient inventory minus the preformed nutrient inventory. In a system where total nutrient is conserved, atmospheric CO2 can thus be simply related to the global inventory of preformed nutrient. Previous model simulations have explored how changes in the surface concentration of nutrients in deepwater formation regions change the global preformed nutrient inventory. We show that changes in physical forcing such as winds, vertical mixing, and lateral mixing can shift the balance of deepwater formation between the North Atlantic (where preformed nutrients are low) and the Southern Ocean (where they are high). Such changes in physical forcing can thus drive large changes in atmospheric CO2, even with minimal changes in surface nutrient concentration. If Southern Ocean deepwater formation strengthens, the preformed nutrient inventory and thus atmospheric CO2 increase. An important consequence of these new insights is that the relationship between surface nutrient concentrations, biological export production, and atmospheric CO2 is more complex than previously predicted. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that OCS soft can increase and atmospheric CO2 decrease, while surface nutrients show minimal change and export production decreases.
    Description: While at MIT, I.M. was supported by the NOAA Postdoctoral Program in Climate and Global Change, administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.
    Keywords: Atmospheric carbon ; Preformed nutrients ; Remineralized nutrients
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23 (2009): GB1005, doi:10.1029/2008GB003349.
    Description: We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air-sea CO2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air-sea difference of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a−1. This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a−1) contemporary CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the pCO2-based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air-sea flux of CO2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river-derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a−1, and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo-Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a−1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air-sea CO2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long-term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.
    Description: Core financial support for this study came from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NAG5-12528 to NG and SMF, with additional support by the U.S. National Science Foundation. M. Gloor was supported by the EBI nd EEE institutes at the University of Leeds. M. Gerber, SM, FJ, and AM thank the European Commission for support through CarboOcean (511176-2) and the NOCES project (EVK2-CT-2001- 00134). TT has been supported by NOAA grant NAO30AR4320179P27.
    Keywords: Air-sea carbon flux ; Carbon flux ; Anthropogenic CO2
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C07032, doi:10.1029/2007JC004598.
    Description: This paper examines the sensitivity of atmospheric pCO2 to changes in ocean biology that result in drawdown of nutrients at the ocean surface. We show that the global inventory of preformed nutrients is the key determinant of atmospheric pCO2 and the oceanic carbon storage due to the soft-tissue pump (OCS soft ). We develop a new theory showing that under conditions of perfect equilibrium between atmosphere and ocean, atmospheric pCO2 can be written as a sum of exponential functions of OCS soft . The theory also demonstrates how the sensitivity of atmospheric pCO2 to changes in the soft-tissue pump depends on the preformed nutrient inventory and on surface buffer chemistry. We validate our theory against simulations of nutrient depletion in a suite of realistic general circulation models (GCMs). The decrease in atmospheric pCO2 following surface nutrient depletion depends on the oceanic circulation in the models. Increasing deep ocean ventilation by increasing vertical mixing or Southern Ocean winds increases the atmospheric pCO2 sensitivity to surface nutrient forcing. Conversely, stratifying the Southern Ocean decreases the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to surface nutrient depletion. Surface CO2 disequilibrium due to the slow gas exchange with the atmosphere acts to make atmospheric pCO2 more sensitive to nutrient depletion in high-ventilation models and less sensitive to nutrient depletion in low-ventilation models. Our findings have potentially important implications for both past and future climates.
    Description: While at MIT, I.M. was supported by the NOAA Postdoctoral Program in Climate and Global Change, administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Preformed nutrient ; Nutrient depletion
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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