Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
Description:
Published
Description:
on line first
Description:
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
partially_open
Keywords:
Eruption forecasting
;
Long- and short-term volcanic hazard
;
Bayesian inference
;
Event tree
;
Fuzzy sets
;
MESIMEX
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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