ALBERT

Description: Burkina Faso has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Burkina Faso. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydro-logical modelling on water availability changes, modelling and comparison of future yields of four widely used crops (maize, sorghum, millet and cowpeas) and an assessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, four different adapta-tion strategies ((1) Integrated soil fertility ma-nagement (ISFM), (2) irrigation, (3) improved seeds and (4) climate information services (CIS)) suggested and selected by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-)effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder work-shops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is on the rise and projected to increase further by 0.6°C (2030) up to 1.1°C (2090) under SSP1-RCP2.6 and by 0.5°C (2030) up to 3.6°C (2090) under SSP3-RCP7.0 in reference to 2004, dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. Some un-certainty exists for annual precipitation projections, with slight increases until 2050 followed by a slight decrease under SSP1-RCP2.6 and continuous increase under SSP3-RCP7.0 with high year-to-year variability. Projected impacts of cli-mate change on yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Some regions in the north show increasing yields (up to +30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and up to +20% in SSP3-RCP7.0), while few regions in the south present decreasing yields (down to -30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and down to -20% in SSP3-RCP7.0). Crop models show that the areas suitable for cowpeas will decrease in Burkina Faso under future climate change conditions while the suitability for maize, millet and sorghum will remain stable. Moreover, the potential to produce multiple crops will become more and more difficult, which limits farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, can have a high potential for risk mitigation and entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended for smallholder farmers, resulting in very positive effects for societies and environment. Irrigation and improved seeds have a high potential to improve livelihoods especially in Northern Burkina Faso, but are also complex, costly and support-intensive adaptation strategies. Lastly, CIS can support farmers to make informed decisions and thereby reduce the impact of climate risks. Generally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can entail additional benefits and active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.

Description: Niger has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and highly vulnerable to climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Niger: (1) agroforestry and farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) of trees, (2) integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), (3) irrigation and (4) improved fodder management for livestock. The impact assessment includes climate projections based on two future emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydrological modelling on water availability, modelling and comparison of future yields of four dominant crops (sorghum, millet, maize and cowpeas) and an as-sessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, the four adaptation strategies suggested by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, cost-effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is projected to increase further in Niger, up to +1.3 °C (SSP1-RCP2.6) and +4.2 °C (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, in reference to 2004. The mean annual precipitation sum is also projected to increase until 2050 under both emissions scenarios, with a slight decrease in the interannual variability. In the second half of the century, this trend in precipitation is likely to continue (SSP3-RCP7.0) or decrease slightly (SSP1-RCP2.6), while the year-to-year variability would increase. Greater annual rates of groundwater recharge due to increasing precipitation amounts and higher annual mean river discharge are expected until mid-century. Sorghum yields would decline in general, by 20-50% (SSP1-RCP2.6) or 40-75% (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, compared to 2005. Crop models hinted at an increase in the suitability of sorghum and millet, and no significant change for maize and cowpeas in Niger under both emissions scenarios. In addition, the potential for multiple cropping would de-crease from mid-century, limiting farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, the grazing potential is likely to decrease in the south and increase in the central regions of Niger, under SSP1-RCP2.6, while it is expected to increase in the whole country under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, risk-independent, with a medium to high risk mitigation potential, and can bring about various co-benefits. FMNR practice can be highly recommended, as the upscaling potential is high and the climate resilience of local livelihoods will be strengthened. ISFM can help to improve water use efficiency and benefit from positive environmental and social outcomes. Irrigation has a medium potential to improve livelihoods of smallholder farmers but is also a support-intensive adaptation strategy that needs to be carefully implemented in order to avoid overexploitation of local water resources. Lastly, improved fodder management, especially al-falfa production, contributes to building up resilience of livestock farming systems and affects women and youth employment positively. Gener-ally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can yield additional benefits and active stake-holder engagement as well as participatory ap-proaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation as well as development planning and investments in order to strengthen the climate resilience of the Nigerien agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers.

Description: Dette projekt startede med en vild idé i oktober 2015 : Skriv en ansøgning om finansiering af et internationalt, tværfagligt og utraditionelt videnskabeligt outreach-projekt... inden for de næste 48 timer. Og det virkede. En gruppe stærkt motiverede unge forskere fra Canada og Europa gik sammen for at kombinere kunst og videnskab og lave en række tegneserier om permafrost (frossen jord). Formålet med projektet er at præsentere og forklare videnskabelig forskning, udført på tværs af det arktiske område, med vægt på feltarbejde og det arktiske miljø i hurtig forandring. Målgruppen er børn, unge, forældre og lærere, og det overordnede mål er at gøre videnskab om permafrost sjovere og mere tilgængelig for offentligheden. For tænk engang : permafrost repræsenterer et område på mere end tyve millioner km2 på den nordlige halvkugle, et enormt område. Eftersom klimaet bliver varmere, tør permafrosten og bliver et ustabilt underlag for huse, veje og lufthavne. Denne hurtige optøning af den tidligere frosne jord, ændrer også planters og dyrs habitater, påvirker vandkvaliteten og søernes økologi samt frigiver kulstof til atmosfæren som drivhusgasser, hvilket gør klimaforandringerne endnu stærkere. Derfor vedrører permafrost og dens reaktion på klimaforandringer os alle. Projektet modtog fra starten støtte fra ”International Permafrost Association” (IPA) som en målrettet ‘Action Group’, og siden da er flere andre sponsorer kommet med i projektet. Her er vi nu to år efter denne første ide. Det, du nu skal til at læse, er resultatet af en udveksling af ideer mellem kunstnere og forskere. Vi opfordrede kunstnere til at deltage og modtog 49 ansøgninger fra kunstnere i 16 lande. Ud af alle ansøgerne valgte vi to kunstnere til projektet : Noémie Ross fra Canada og Heta Nääs fra Finland. Med input fra forskere, skabte Noémie og Heta fantastiske tegneserier, der forklarer nogle af de ændringer, der sker i miljøet i permafrostområder, hvordan de påvirker mennesker og dyreliv, og hvad forskere gør for bedre at forstå disse ændringer for at hjælpe folk med at finde innovative måder at tilpasse sig på. Vi ønsker alle masser af sjov med dette hæfte, og vi vil gerne takke alle dem, der støttede projektet.

Description: This project started in October 2015 with a crazy idea : prepare and submit a funding application for an international, multidisciplinary and non-traditional scientific outreach project… within the next 48 hours. Well, it worked out. A group of highly motivated young researchers from Canada and Europe united to combine arts and science and produce a series of outreach comic strips about permafrost (frozen ground). The aim of the project is to present and explain scientific research conducted across the circumpolar Arctic, placing emphasis on field work and the rapidly changing northern environment. The target audience is kids, youth, parents and teachers, with the general goal of making permafrost science more fun and accessible to the public. Because guess what : permafrost represents an area of more than twenty million km2 in the Northern Hemisphere, a huge area. As the climate warms, permafrost thaws and becomes unstable for houses, roads and airports. This rapid thawing of previously frozen ground also disrupts plant and animal habitats, impacts water quality and the ecology of lakes, and releases carbon into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, making climate change even stronger. Hence permafrost and its response to climate change concerns us all. The project received initial support from the International Permafrost Association (IPA) as a targeted ‘Action Group’, and since then several other sponsors have joined the project. Here we are, now, two years after this first idea. What you are about to read is the result of an iterative process of exchanging ideas between artists and scientists. We first made an application call and received 49 applications from artists in 16 countries. Through a formal review process, we then selected two artists to work on this project: Noémie Ross from Canada, and Heta Nääs from Finland. With input from scientists, Noémie and Heta created fantastic cartoons that explain some of the changes happening to the environment in permafrost areas, how they affect people and wildlife, and what scientists are doing to better understand these changes to help people find innovative ways to adapt. We wish everyone plenty of fun reading this booklet and we would like to thank all those who supported this project.