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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-07-19
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉This study addresses the evolution of global tidal dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum focusing on the extraction of tidal levels that are vital for the interpretation of geologic sea‐level markers. For this purpose, we employ a truly‐global barotropic ocean tide model which considers the non‐local effect of Self‐Attraction and Loading. A comparison to a global tide gauge data set for modern conditions yields agreement levels of 65%–70%. As the chosen model is data‐unconstrained, and the considered dissipation mechanisms are well understood, it does not have to be re‐tuned for altered paleoceanographic conditions. In agreement with prior studies, we find that changes in bathymetry during glaciation and deglaciation do exert critical control over the modeling results with minor impact by ocean stratification and sea ice friction. Simulations of 4 major partial tides are repeated in time steps of 0.5–1 ka and augmented by 4 additional partial tides estimated via linear admittance. These are then used to derive time series from which the tidal levels are determined and provided as a global data set conforming to the HOLSEA format. The modeling results indicate a strengthened tidal resonance by M〈sub〉2〈/sub〉, but also by O〈sub〉1〈/sub〉, under glacial conditions, in accordance with prior studies. Especially, a number of prominent changes in local resonance conditions are identified, that impact the tidal levels up to several meters difference. Among other regions, resonant features are predicted for the North Atlantic, the South China Sea, and the Arctic Ocean.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: We discuss changes in ocean tides during the last 21,000 years. This time marks the Last Glacial Maximum when large parts of the Earth's surface were covered by ice and the sea level was more than 100 m lower than today. Such a low sea level means that many regions of the Earth became land and the ocean's depth changed markedly. The distribution of land and water dominates changes in the tidal levels like the spring or neap tide. With a tidal computer model recently developed by our group, we determine these tidal levels for different times steps from 21,000 years to today. Tidal levels are important for geologists who want to understand former sea level changes with samples found at ancient shorelines. As many of such samples were deposited at a specific tidal level, our modeled information will help them to relate their height to the mean sea‐level. Of course, our model is not the only one that can estimate such changes, but we discuss the advantages of our recent development over previous tools available.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: Evolution of four major partial tides from Last Glacial Maximum until present times.〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Validation of the employed ocean tide model with present‐day tide gauge data and dissipation rates.〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Diligent derivation of global tidal levels for the interpretation of sea level indexpoints.〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.46 ; ocean tide modeling ; tidal dissipation ; tidal levels ; indicative range ; sea level index points ; numerical modeling
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-07-14
    Description: Understanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emissions over the next 10 kyr. Bifurcation points exist at global temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre-industrial. For system states in the vicinity of the equilibrium ice volumes corresponding to these temperature anomalies, mass loss rate and sensitivity of mass loss to cumulative CO2 emission peak. These critical ice volumes are crossed for cumulative emissions of 1000 and 2500 GtC, which would cause long-term sea level rise by 1.8 and 6.9 m respectively. In summary, we find tipping of the GIS within the range of the temperature limits of the Paris agreement.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-03-21
    Description: We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception using the Earth system model CLIMBER-X with dynamic vegetation, interactive ice sheets, and visco-elastic solid Earth responses. The simulations are initialized at the middle of the Eemian interglacial (125 kiloyears before present, ka) and run until 100 ka, driven by prescribed changes in Earth's orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations from ice core data. CLIMBER-X simulates a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area through MIS5d, with ice sheets expanding over northern North America and Scandinavia, in broad agreement with proxy reconstructions. While most of the increase in ice sheet area occurs over a relatively short period between 119 and 117 ka, the larger part of the increase in ice volume occurs afterwards with an almost constant ice sheet extent. We show that the vegetation feedback plays a fundamental role in controlling the ice sheet expansion during the last glacial inception. In particular, with prescribed present-day vegetation the model simulates a global sea level drop of only ∼ 20 m, compared with the ∼ 35 m decrease in sea level with dynamic vegetation response. The ice sheet and carbon cycle feedbacks play only a minor role during the ice sheet expansion phase prior to ∼ 115 ka but are important in limiting the deglaciation during the following phase characterized by increasing summer insolation. The model results are sensitive to climate model biases and to the parameterization of snow albedo, while they show only a weak dependence on changes in the ice sheet model resolution and the acceleration factor used to speed up the climate component. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate–vegetation–cryosphere feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states characterizing Quaternary glacial cycles.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: The ability of any satellite gravity mission concept to monitor mass transport processes in the Earth system is typically tested well ahead of its implementation by means of various simulation studies. Those studies often extend from the simulation of realistic orbits and instrumental data all the way down to the retrieval of global gravity field solution time-series. Basic requirement for all these simulations are realistic representations of the spatio-temporal mass variability in the different sub-systems of the Earth, as a source model for the orbit computations. For such simulations, a suitable source model is required to represent (i) high-frequency (i.e., subdaily to weekly) mass variability in the atmosphere and oceans, in order to realistically include the effects of temporal aliasing due to non-tidal high-frequency mass variability into the retrieved gravity fields. In parallel, (ii) low-frequency (i.e., monthly to interannual) variability needs to be modelled with realistic amplitudes, particularly at small spatial scales, in order to assess to what extent a new mission concept might provide further insight into physical processes currently not observable. The new source model documented here attempts to fulfil both requirements: Based on ECMWF’s recent atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and corresponding simulations from numerical models of the other Earth system components, it offers spherical harmonic coefficients of the time-variable global gravity field due to mass variability in atmosphere, oceans, the terrestrial hydrosphere including the ice-sheets and glaciers, as well as the solid Earth. Simulated features range from sub-daily to multiyear periods with a spatial resolution of spherical harmonics degree and order 180 over a period of 12 years. In addition to the source model, a de-aliasing model for atmospheric and oceanic high-frequency variability with augmented systematic and random noise is required for a realistic simulation of the gravity field retrieval process, whose necessary error characteristics are discussed. The documentation of the updated ESA Earth System Model (updated ESM) for gravity mission simulation studies is organized as follows: The characteristics of the updated ESM along with some basic validation is presented in Volume 1. A detailed comparison to the original ESA ESM (Gruber et al., 2011) is provided in Volume 2, while Volume 3 contains the description of a strategy to derive realistic errors for the de-aliasing model of high-frequency mass variability in atmosphere and ocean.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: The influence of the elastic Earth properties on seasonal or shorter periodic surface deformations due to atmospheric surface pressure and terrestrial water storage variations is usually modeled by applying a local half-space model or an one dimensional spherical Earth model like PREM from which a unique set of elastic load Love numbers, or alternatively, elastic Green's functions are derived. The first model is valid only if load and observer almost coincide, the second model considers only the response of an average Earth structure. However, for surface loads with horizontal scales less than 2500 km2, as for instance, for strong localized hydrological signals associated with heavy precipitation events and river floods, the Earth elastic response becomes very sensitive to inhomogeneities in the Earth crustal structure. We derive a set of local Green's functions defined globally on a 1° × 1° grid for the 3-layer crustal structure TEA12. Local Green's functions show standard deviations of ±12% in the vertical and ±21% in the horizontal directions for distances in the range from 0.1° to 0.5°. By means of Green's function scatter plots, we analyze the dependence of the load response to various crustal rocks and layer thicknesses. The application of local Green's functions instead of a mean global Green's function introduces a variability of 0.5 − 1.0 mm into the hydrological loading displacements, both in vertical and in horizontal directions. Maximum changes due to the local crustal structures are from −25% to +26% in the vertical and −91% to +55% in the horizontal displacements. In addition, the horizontal displacement can change its direction significantly. The lateral deviations in surface deformation due to local crustal elastic properties are found to be much larger than the differences between various commonly used one-dimensional Earth models.
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    In:  International Association of Geodesy Symposia | IX Hotine-Marussi Symposium on Mathematical Geodesy
    Publication Date: 2020-10-05
    Description: Advancements in the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) have enabled us to investigate the effects of lateral heterogeneities in the internal Earth structure on long-term surface deformations caused by the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Many theories have been developed so far to consider such effects based on analytical and numerical approaches, and 3D viscosity distributions have been inferred. On the other hand, fewer studies have been conducted to assess the effects of lateral heterogeneities on short-term, elastic deformations excited by surface fluids, with 1D laterally homogeneous theories being frequently used. In this paper, we show that a spectral finite-element method is applicable to calculate the elastic deformation of an axisymmetric spherical Earth. We demonstrate the effects of laterally heterogeneous moduli with horizontal scales of several hundred kilometers in the upper mantle on the vertical response to a relatively large-scale surface load. We found that errors due to adopting a 1D Green’s function based on a local structure could amount to 2–3% when estimating the displacement outside the heterogeneity. Moreover, we confirmed that the mode coupling between higher-degree spherical harmonics needs to be considered for simulating smaller-scale heterogeneities, which agreed with results of previous studies.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-10-05
    Description: Glacial-isotactic adjustment (GIA) is one of the key processes considering relative sea-level (RSL) and paleo-topography during the last glacial cycle. Especially in former ice-covered regions the subsidence of the solid Earth due to ice loads can reach more than 500 m and contributes to the stability of ice-sheets (e.g. position of grounding line and ice-sheet elevation), whereas at the coasts of the world oceans the deformation is governed by global RSL fall of more than 100 m. Because the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth is governed by its viscosity structure, the effect of lateral viscosity variations on deformations due to GIA has to be estimated. The importance was already shown for the differences in earth structure below the glacial ice sheets of Fennoscandia and Laurentide, as well as for a number of peripheral and far-field regions. One open question arises: Can the 3D earth properly be parameterized by locally optimized 1D earth structures? In this study, we apply a 3D Earth structure which we derived from seismic tomography and further geodynamic constraints as an a priori estimation of the Earth viscosity distribution. Applying a standard glaciation history, we compare the response characteristics of 1D and 3D earth parameterizations and discuss the limits of optimized 1D earth parametrizations. We will focus on reconstructions of RSL during the last deglaciation in view of sea level index points which are generally used for validating the GIA process.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-07-28
    Description: We review the historical, geological, tide-gauge, GPS and gravimetric evidence advanced in favour of or against continuing land uplift around Hudson Bay, Canada. After this, we reanalyse the tide-gauge and GPS data for Churchill using longer time series than those available to previous investigators. The dependence of the mean rate of relative sea-level change obtained on the length and mid-epoch of the observation interval considered is investigated by means of the newly developed linear-trend analysis diagram. For studying the shorter-period variability of the tide-gauge record, the continuous-wavelet transform is used. The mean rate of land uplift obtained from GPS is based on a new analysis using IGS solutions of GFZ. Furthermore, sea-level indicators from the Churchill region representing the relative sea-level history during the past 8000 a are included. Finally, the four types of observable are jointly inverted in terms of mantle viscosity. The optimum values are 3×10^20 Pa s and 1.6 × 10^22 Pa s for the upper- and lower-mantle viscosities, respectively.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences as part of the GRACE Science Data System (SDS) is currently reprocessing the complete GRACE mission data. This new Level-2 data release (RL06 in the SDS nomenclature) will be based on reprocessed Level-1B instrument data (RL03), updated processing standards and background models and will take care of limitations known from previous RL05. Examples are the application of the latest RL06 Atmosphere and Ocean Dealiasing Model, update of the ocean tide model, implementation of the most recent IERS conventions or improvements in GFZ´s GPS data processing. This 15+ year time series of monthly Level-2 spherical harmonics and underlying processing standards will then serve for the continuation with GRACE-FO (Follow-on) data expected for early 2018. In parallel a team of GFZ, the Alfred-Wegener-Institute Bremerhaven and TU Dresden has developed and implemented a portal at GFZ where users can download dedicated Level-3 products for hydrological, oceanic and polar research activities. This portal is expected to be made public by the end of 2017. The presentation will show the status and examples of these new RL06 Level-2 products and prototype Level-3 products based on GFZ’s RL05a Level-2 monthly solutions.
    Language: English
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