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  • English  (5)
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  • 1
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    Monitoring fluid saturation in a gas-water system by utilizing CPET modelling of 4D seismic inversion results (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
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    Publication Date: 2023-04-20
    Description: It is essential to comprehend how fluid concentration in rocks affects the hydrocarbon reserve and monitor fluid concentration for a sequestration or enhanced oil recovery programme. A prediction of saturation is highly uncertain due to the prior assumption that gas distribution is uniform or patchy in a rock physics theory. We therefore use the capillary pressure equilibrium theory (CPET) to develop a reservoir model that corresponds to the physics of capillary-induced fluid invasion and avoids the uncertainty associated with the type of gas distribution in pores. Assuming that the rock frame has not significantly changed throughout the field, we develop a CPET model utilising the reservoir parameters of the clean and unconsolidated sandstone formation of the Sleipner field, North Sea, which is the first industrial-scale CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉-injection operation ever. The fluid content of the Sleipner field is then estimated by interpreting the time-lapse seismic inversion results using the model. According to our research, CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 is similar to a uniform distribution at higher concentrations, whereas it is mostly a somewhat patchy type at lower concentrations, or somewhere in between patchy and uniform distribution. Maximum CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 saturation is predicted using the CPET as 75% of the pore space. The topmost layer's CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉-plume footprint is expanding from zero in 2001 to 7X105 sq. m. in 2010, according to a quantitative interpretation of six time-lapse seismic data sets from 1999 to 2010. Our model predicts that 50 years after the start of injection, CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 from all layers below will migrate to the top layer.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 2
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    A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems (2023)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-05-16
    Description: The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
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    Pathway to achieve a sustainable food and land-use transition in India (2023)
    In:  Sustainability Science
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    Publication Date: 2023-09-05
    Description: India has committed to reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35% from the 2005 level by 2030 in alignment with objectives of the Paris Agreement. This will require a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food and land-use sector. In this paper, we construct three potential pathways for India to achieve its emissions target by 2050 involving moderate ambitions of mitigation action (BAU), moderate ambitions combined with achieving healthy diets (BAU + NIN), and high levels of mitigation action inclusive of healthy diets (SUSTAINABLE). Using an integrated accounting tool, the FABLE Calculator, that harmonizes various socioeconomic and biophysical data, we project these pathways under the conditions of cross-country balanced trade flows. Results from the projections show that the demand for cereals will increase by 2050, leading to increased GHG emissions under BAU. Under the SUSTAINABLE pathways, GHG emissions will decrease over the same period due to reduced demand for cereals, whereas significant crop productivity and harvest intensity gains would lead to increased crop production. The exercise reveals the indispensability of healthy diets, improved crop, and livestock productivity, and net-zero deforestation in achieving India’s mid-century emission targets from the agriculture sector.
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    The role of food and land use systems in achieving India’s sustainability targets (2022)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
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    Publication Date: 2023-11-23
    Description: The food and land use sector is a major contributor to India’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On one hand, India is committed to sustainability targets in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors, on the other, there is little clarity whether these objectives can align with national developmental priorities of food security and environmental protection. This study fills the gap by reviewing multiple corridors to sustain the AFOLU systems through an integrated assessment framework using partial equilibrium modeling. We create three pathways that combine the shared socio-economic pathways with alternative assumptions on diets and mitigation strategies. We analyze our results of the pathways on key indicators of land-use change, GHG emissions, food security, water withdrawals in agriculture, agricultural trade and production diversity. Our findings indicate that dietary shift, improved efficiency in livestock production systems, lower fertilizer use, and higher yield through sustainable intensification can reduce GHG emissions from the AFOLU sectors up to 80% by 2050. Dietary shifts could help meet EAT-Lancet recommended minimum calorie requirements alongside meeting mitigation ambitions. Further, water withdrawals in agriculture would reduce by half by 2050 in the presence of environmental flow protection and mitigation strategies. We conclude by pointing towards specific cstrategic policy design changes that would be essential to embark on such a sustainable pathway.
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Assessing policy options for sustainable water use in India’s cereal production system (2023)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
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    Publication Date: 2023-12-05
    Description: In India, the production of rice and wheat account for more than 80% of its total agricultural water use. As farming is highly dependent on water availability, rapidly receding water levels require urgent measures to manage withdrawals. We assess policy instruments that can reduce pressures on water resources, while at the same time limiting adverse impacts on water-intensive cereal production systems, land-use changes and economic welfare. To this end, we use a dynamic and integrated partial equilibrium model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment to reflect two options: an increase in energy costs for irrigation water (price-related effects), and alternatively, physical quotas on water withdrawals (quantity-related effects). We conclude that it is possible to increase energy prices for agriculture with minimal impacts on agricultural production, agricultural prices, and trade in cereal crops, and moderately reduce water withdrawals by 2050. We find that the intermediate effects of pricing policies are negative for all indicators as compared to quota policies. However, by 2050, both policies yield similar outcomes for all indicators. Our results offer insights into ways in which these policies drive different mechanisms and trade-offs on important agro-economic indicators, and they offer the choice for water conservation policy decision-making based on other critical factors such as implementation costs.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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