ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

X
feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    A stochastic bioenergetics model-based approach to translating large river flow and temperature into fish population responses: the pallid sturgeon example (2015)
    Geological Society (of London)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-05-30
    Description: In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society (of London)
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 2
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Hierarchical stochastic modelling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example (2015)
    Geological Society (of London)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-10-14
    Description: We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our downscaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society (of London)
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 3
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    A stochastic bioenergetics model-based approach to translating large river flow and temperature into fish population responses: the pallid sturgeon example (2015)
    Geological Society (of London)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-10-14
    Description: In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society (of London)
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 4
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    A stochastic bioenergetics model-based approach to translating large river flow and temperature into fish population responses: the pallid sturgeon example (2016)
    Geological Society (of London)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-03-12
    Description: In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society (of London)
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 5
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Modeling 3-D spatio-temporal biogeochemical processes with a forest of 1-D statistical emulators (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-17
    Print ISSN: 1180-4009
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-095X
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Published by Wiley
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 6
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Ocean Ensemble Forecasting, Part I: Ensemble Mediterranean Winds from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) is developed to estimate surface vector wind fields (SVW), and associated uncertainties, over the Mediterranean Sea. The BHM-SVW incorporates data-stage inputs from analyses and forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and from the QuikSCAT data record. The process model stage of the BHM-SVW is based on a Rayleigh Friction Equation model for surface winds. Dynamical interpretations of posterior distributions of the BHM-SVW parameters are discussed. Ten realizations from the posterior distribution the BHM-SVW are used to force the data assimilation step of an experimental ensemble ocean forecast system for the Mediterranean Sea in order to create a set of ensemble initial conditions. Ensemble initial condition spread is quantified by computing standard deviations of ocean state variable fields over the 10 ensemble members, driven by 10 realizations from the BHM-SVW posterior distribution over a 14-day sequential data assimilation period. Ensemble spread occurs on mesoscale time and space scales, in close association with strong synoptic scale wind forcing events. A companion paper compares the performance of the MFS ensemble forecasts given initial condition generation and forecast forcing from the BHM-SVW, with forecasts based on more traditional methods of ensemble generation
    Description: Submitted
    Description: 1.8. Osservazioni di geofisica ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Bayesian Hierarchical Model ; Mediterranean Sea ; Ensemble Forecasting ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 7
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Ocean Ensemble Forecasting, Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System Response (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This paper analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) developed in Part I (Milliff et al., 2009). A new method for Ocean Ensemble Forecasting (OEF), so-called BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14-day analysis and 10-day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared to an ensemble response forced by ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EEPS) surface winds, and to an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived from an ad hoc Thermocline Intensified Random Perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread at the basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest. The BHM-SVW-OEF method offers a practical and objective means for producing short-term forecast spread by modeling surface atmospheric forcing uncertainties that have maximum impact at the ocean mesoscales.
    Description: Submitted
    Description: 3.8. Geofisica per l'ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Ocean Ensemble Forecasting ; Ensemble Perturbations ; Forecast Spread ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 8
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System response (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: This article analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) developed in Part I of this series. A new method for ocean ensemble forecasting (OEF), the socalled BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14 day analysis and 10 day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and in the pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared with an ensemble response forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EEPS) surface winds, and with an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived froman ad hoc thermocline intensified random perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread on basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale-intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain, while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean-model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest.
    Description: Published
    Description: 879–893
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: embargoed_20140501
    Keywords: forecast uncertainty ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 9
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part I: Ensemble Mediterranean winds from a Bayesian hierarchical model (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: A Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) is developed to estimate surface vector wind (SVW) fields and associated uncertainties over the Mediterranean Sea. The BHM–SVW incorporates data-stage inputs from analyses and forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and SVW retrievals from the QuikSCAT data record. The process-model stage of the BHM–SVW is based on a Rayleigh friction equation model for surface winds. Dynamical interpretations of posterior distributions of the BHM–SVW parameters are discussed. Ten realizations from the posterior distribution of the BHM–SVW are used to force the data-assimilation step of an experimental ensemble ocean forecast system for the Mediterranean Sea in order to create a set of ensemble initial conditions. The sequential data-assimilation method of the Mediterranean forecast system (MFS) is adapted to the ensemble implementation. Analyses of sample ensemble initial conditions for a single data-assimilation period in MFS are presented to demonstrate the multivariate impact of the BHM–SVW ensemble generation methodology. Ensemble initial-condition spread is quantified by computing standard deviations of ocean state variable fields over the ten ensemble members. The methodological findings in this article are of two kinds. From the perspective of statistical modelling, the process-model development is more closely related tophysicalbalances than inpreviousworkwithmodels for the SVW.Fromthe ocean forecast perspective, the generation of ocean ensemble initial conditions via BHM is shown to be practical for operational implementation in an ensemble ocean forecast system. Phenomenologically, ensemble spread generated via BHM–SVW occurs on ocean mesoscale time- and space-scales, in close association with strong synoptic-scale wind-forcing events. A companion article describes the impacts of the BHM–SVW ensemble method on the ocean forecast in comparisons with more traditional ensemble methods.
    Description: Published
    Description: 858–878
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: embargoed_20140501
    Keywords: QuikSCAT surface winds ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...